The market is down hard over these past couple weeks, thanks to worries about relatively steep valuations, the likelihood of an interest rate hike from the Fed next month and, much more than anything else, a full-on panic about the possibility of a Donald Trump presidency that would, one fears, bring an almost endless stream of “black swan” events.
There are lots of different interpretations by sector as well, of course, — biotech investors are probably, on the whole, more worried about a Clinton presidency if she also has a majority in Congress to push more of a drug price control agenda, and that’s largely why biotech stocks took a tumble in the days after Trump’s most embarrassing Access Hollywood tape was released, since for a couple weeks there it looked like the Republicans might lose everything… though the tightening of the race after the latest negative Clinton FBI news has certainly not been enough to cheer up biotech investors very much, not with pretty much everything going down over the past week and another regulatory push from the Department of Justice, this time focused on possible price fixing among the generic drugmakers.
I’m writing this before the market close on Friday, but it looks like there’s a decent chance that we’ll end with a “red” day again for the broad market — which would make nine days in a row of the market going down.
Gold has been one obvious “flight to safety” trade in recent weeks, but it’s also still well below its highs from earlier in the year… one gets the sense that a lot of people are just sitting on cash, as has been the case for a couple of years now as faith in the continuing bull market has remained persistently low.
The market is an emotional barometer for the country to some degree, so yes, these are interesting times. If Trump’s polls continue to improve over the next couple days and the national polls remain within the margin of error, we could easily have continued selloffs on Monday and Tuesday as people try to go to cash and get out of the way of the uncertainty… if the polls widen out again a bit and there’s more confidence in a peaceful continuation of the current governmental gridlock, we could see a pretty strong recovery in the broad market. People are spending ...