by hendrixnuzzles | November 6, 2016 4:40 pm
—-An evolving outlook on investing in hard asset investments—-
This thread is for those who believe in gold, silver, and hard commodity assets, and who want investments that are related to them. The opinion of the author is that these assets will increase in value over time.
The thread is a successor to “Gold’s Next Bull Run? What to buy?” and “Gold Bull Investments for the Next Leg Up…June 2016”.
A gold bull market started in January 2016. The momentum of this move appears to be broken as I write this; gold has dropped to $1250, and the duration and severity of this move remains to be seen. I offer no opinion on this. But long-term I am bullish on gold, precious metals, related investments, and tangible assets; and this thread is for those of the same outlook.
OBJECTIVES Our objectives are to discuss and evaluate relevant hard money and hard asset investment ideas,
learn as much as we can, amuse and enjoy ourselves, and hopefully benefit financially.
The uncertainty and unpredictability provide challenge and interest.
NOT OBJECTIVES We are not predicting any particular macro outcome.
We are not campaigning to change the world, or to reform our institutions, or to elect anybody.
We are not seeking unanimity of opinion on politics, social issues, or economics.
We will discuss these things as they relate to our investments, but we are not trying to persuade anyone of anything.
Some are closer to the panic button than others on these issues, but this is not critical to the objectives of the thread. We are not looking to enlist believers about financial Doomsday coming soon to a theater near you, even though we may think that it is.
This is not a survivalist forum. If you are worried about the end of the world, then help us find some investments that will do well.
HOW TO INTERACT Critical thinking and a friendly and open-minded attitude are welcome. A little venting or ranting is OK, as long as our digressions are short and we get back to investment prospects. If you give somebody a shot, expect to get one back. Don’t dish it out if you can’t take it. Try to be nice. I know it is hard sometimes.
Everyone is encouraged to participate constructively. But as thread author,
I am the moderator and referee. So I get to write about whatever strikes my fancy, like Russian Katyusha rockets and cultural tendencies of Russian character and their implications for Russian financial strategy. I am permitted to on tangents. But then I can decide to blow the whistle on you for being outside the boundaries of the thread. I know it may seem unfair. But it’s a cruel world, and it’s my thread.
If you really dislike my benign oversight, or what others consider my narrow, prejudiced, egotistical, authoritarian, unreasonable, hypocritical, bombastic, pedantic, pig-headed refusal to agree with you, I understand completely.
My faults and shortcomings are legendary and there are many who will agree with you. I admit there a lot of things to dislike about me. I have a propensity to make stupid mistakes, false prophecies, and outrageous claims. I am also completely unqualified to give opinions concerning most of the subjects about which I write endlessly. I also change my opinions at random times for unknown reasons. Only occasionally you may find something humorous, useful, or interesting.
So if you don’t like me or the thread, that’s OK….just keep it to yourself. I’ve already admitted anything bad you can accuse me of. It’s hard to hurt my feelings anyway. My ex-wife will tell you that I don’t even have any feelings. And you are always free to boycott the Hendrixnuzzles thread and start your own.
WHEN This thread will run now through Christmas 2016 unless terminated by lack of interest.
Both of the predecessor threads were active for about 90 days, which seems good for continuity of discussion and unfolding of developments.
DISCUSSION TARGETS: Gold, silver, gold and silver investments, platinum group metals, copper, zinc and nickel, energy materials like lithium and uranium.
Gold indexes and ETFs are OK topics and fine investments for those who want gold exposure without making individual picks. I prefer to make my own picks and therefore tend not to talk about ETFs very much. Physical gold and silver, numismatic coins, cash, and ways to hold them are important, and also OK topics, but these discussions will not get a lot of attention from me for reasons explained elsewhere.
No iron ore, coal, lead, or aluminum, to the degree we can avoid it. We can touch on oil and gas, but the subject is too vast to go deeply into it on this thread. The thread is not for day traders although swing trading may be discussed and strategy shared.
DISCLOSURES: I am an ordinary retired guy. I am not a professional in the investment or mining business. I am long all companies mentioned, unless I state “No position”, or it is obvious from context. I am a position investor who does some swing trading on the fringe.
NO ADVICE My opinions and positions are just my opinions and positions. They are not advice. They are not recommendations. I am not qualified to give investment advice and I do not recommend stocks. I have opinions on them, and on the ones I like a lot, I take a position and say why.
SECTORS AND POSITIONS…GETTING DOWN TO BRASS TACKS:
This is your lucky day. You didn’t even have to pay a fee to get my picks. But remember we just went into a downturn, so be careful.
It is my opinion that precious metal investments be clearly categorized to ensure suitability to the individual. As of this writing, my categories, long positions, and targets are:
1. Royalty/streamers: SAND, SLW, FNV, OR, ATUSF. I am partial to this category. SAND is my largest position. SLW and FNV are conviction picks. OR and ATUSF are targets.
2. Mid-tier and Major Miners: PVG (gold); MAG (silver); IVPAF (copper/zinc/PGM), and CCJ (uranium). I take long trading positions on big caps ABX, NEM, and AEM. I do not like mining stocks very much as
long-term investments, although many will prefer them. I do like them as trading vehicles. My conviction mining stocks are PVG and IVPAF. MAG is close. CCJ is a target.
3. Explorers/developers: SA, MRLDF, BCEKF, CLASF, BALMF, ERDCF, BRIZF, UEC, NMKTF, LEXVF, CTEQF. This is in rough priority order. I am overweight in the explorer/developer group, as I agree with the “optionality” concept in metals stocks. I am looking for big gains on these.
3a. General disclaimer on explorers/developers: They may take a very long time to go up. Most of these companies do not produce anything, have a couple dozen employees, and have no sales or revenue. Many of them have their main operations in bizarre places that do not have a Starbucks or Walmart nearby. Your financial advisor will gag and sputter if you mention them. He may try to have you declared incompetent.
I have a financial advisor who will not execute orders on Ivanhoe Mines because it is a foreign stock under $2.00 a share. And Ivanhoe has a market cap over a billion and is one of the best investments I can find in the whole mining sector. So I’m not asking his opinion, or asking him to buy a 20 cent stock with no analyst coverage and a market cap of $16 million exploring for plutonium in Mongolia. He’ll say: “Huh ? Never heard of it. Spell that again? You sure you want to do this ? ”
Bottom line, don’t ask your financial advisor about these microcaps. Make sure anybody touting them is objective. Put your big boy or big girl pants on, do your due diligence, and decide for yourself. Sometimes you cannot find enough information to make an informed judgement. Then just pass on it. But occasionally you may find something that persuades you that their chances are better than average of achieving success. At that point, you will know more about the company than most other people do.
3b. I have a proprietary metric, the Hendrixnuzzles Optionality Grade, or HOG, which I use in evaluating non-producing gold explorers and developers.
4. Physical metals: I have physical gold and silver of non-numismatic value.
Krugerrands, eagles, Austrians, US junk silver. I have a small position in PSLV, a silver bullion trust with redemption.
5. Options: Let’s keep conversation limited. I sometimes sell or buy options but do not want to discuss them here too much. They are very risky, unless one is selling them or otherwise knows what one is doing. They can reduce risk, but in practice it is hard not to increase risk by succumbing to temptation and getting over-leveraged. Then they become binary speculations, not investments. And the spreads make it extra tough. It is preferable to have our focus on analysis of the underlying stocks.
6. Futures and options on futures: I don’t do them. High stakes game, out of my league.
DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE Did I mention, you should do your own due diligence ?
I have done my own due diligence on all my picks.
Do not take anyone’s word on anything, least of all me.
Do your own due diligence.
I always feel like the year begins in the fall, and I am excited about
the coming months, even though this week I am taking a beating. It’s been a good run since January.
Best wishes to everyone. I look forward to your constructive contributions!
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