Gold and Silver and Hard Assets after Trump’s Inauguration…2017MAKE YOUR PORTFOLIO GREAT AGAIN !
This thread is a continuation of several threads posted previously by the author on gold and silver and hard asset investments. I am still a believer in hard assets. I also believe we are entering a period of inflation with continued dollar devaluation, higher interest rates, and a sluggish economy with chaotic dislocations. I believe there will be a lot of uncertainty and high volatility.
PURPOSE My intent is to find and discuss good mining and commodity ideas. Gold and silver remain a focus, but I want to achieve a more balanced approach still based on tangible commodities.
STEEL and IRON ORE…I believe Trump’s programs will benefit iron ore and steel. Stocks in this sector have been beaten down terribly but are rebounding. I am long VALE, a Brazilian company which is the world’s largest iron ore producer. I have been long Arcelor Mittal but do not have a position at the moment. Anybody know anything about cement and asphalt ?
COPPER, ZINC, PGM METALS…My very best conviction stock is Ivanhoe Mines IVPAF. I am completely comfortable with a large single position in IVPAF to cover these metals. However other investors may be uncomfortable with a small cap in sub-Saharan Africa. So I think it is beneficial to introduce other names even though I myself am not interested. Rio Tinto, Freeport-McMoran, Teck, Turquoise Hill, BHP and others come to mind. Travis, our host, is long Altius Minerals, and I have been also.
URANIUM…I’m bullish but the choices seem pretty limited. My top three investment-grade choices are Cameco first, then Cameco second, or my third pick would be Cameco. After that, you are speculating on small caps, or buying ETFS or funds comprised of Cameco and some small caps. At the moment, I am long Cameco and UEC.
LITHIUM…I am considering a long position in lithium. I have nothing to recommend at the moment, although I am strongly considering Galaxy, an Australian company. And I like Neometals, also an Australian, but it is difficult to get from my broker, who hates it when I want to buy obscure 50 cent companies on small foreign exchanges. If anybody’s got a great battery play, I am interested.
POTASH/FERTILIZER…very interested but they all seem pretty expensive. There has been consolidation but I have considered Agrium, Mosaic, and there is a German company whose name I forget at the moment (K&D? K&S?).
OIL AND GAS…I would like some very good conviction picks accompanied by strong reasons and decent research. This field is so big, we could get completely lost just tossing names around. I am somewhat worried about price weakness in the energy sector but feel that it is worthwhile to develop a point of view on a few companies. I have little experience although I made very good money in the past on XOM and CVX. Currently I would be interested in pipelines, LNG, or any other sector that someone knows something about. In natgas I like OGZPY.
SOLAR and WIND…really not too interested. The results depend too much on politics, the time frames seem too long. But I am not completely closed-minded on it if you have conviction on something.
COAL…same opinion as solar and wind, but the prices are low and depressed instead of hyped and high-flying. I am still stuck with some defaulted Arch Coal bonds that my financial advisor recommended. They went to ZERO. Now they are worth a Starbucks latte and a pastry. And no espresso shot in the latte, either.
AGRICULTURE…very interested. A large sector but really not too many choices if you rule out futures, like I do. I have a few obscure favorites, but no positions at present:
WHGPY (Chinese pork processor who bought Smithfield)
LAND (Gladstone Land, California farmland)
INCPY (Input Capital, a Canadian canola, streaming model).
Open to more conventional picks like ADM and DBA.
GOLD AND SILVER…my picks have been discussed at length previously. I follow these pretty closely. I am long royalty/streamers SAND, FNV, SLW, and OR; miners PVG, MAG; developers SA, CLASF, MRDCF, BALMF, KNTNF, and LXVMF; and I own PSLV and physical bullion. I swing trade big caps ABX and NEM.
****
DISCLOSURES. I am a retired executive and an amateur investor. I like both fundamental and technical analysis. I am a medium-term to long-term position player and prefer to discuss stock investment in that context. Please no minute-by-minute reports that oil is now 52.50 down 10 cents and the Iranians may suspend Ramadan next week so you are going long until the afternoon bell.
I am not an expert in any of the commodities discussed nor am I qualified to give advice.
Everyone makes mistakes and I make more than my share.Sometimes I change my mind.
When I post, I express my opinions and my positions. These are just that…they are my opinions and my positions. They are not advice or recommendations, which I remind you I am unqualified to make.
Opinions and positions are subject to change at any moment. That is quite unlike the pig-headed and foolish political convictions everybody carries around adamantly, and which change only rarely for unpredictable reasons that have nothing to do with logical thought or reasoned discussion.
Because of this, political developments can be introduced on this thread only when they have a clear bearing on the commodities or companies under discussion.
You are responsible for your decisions, and I am responsible for mine. Caveat emptor.
I would like to operate in a friendly, honest, and constructive atmosphere.
As thread moderator I reserve to myself the role of referee, censor, arbiter, and Grand Poobah, subject to the over-arching authority of Travis, who owns the site and who has on occasion exercised his right to ruthlessly censor and suppress my radical blatherings.
This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.
When i posted the ETF link I should have been more specific in why. The following chart shows how shorts can sell twice the number of total shares in the company, or 2005 short interest. What happens when all those shorts must be unwound and none can be got for any price because they do not exist?
Arch1. Your post about ETFs and this follow up contain VERY important information. Thank you! I had heard (from a Bix Weir video) about how stocks were “sold” multiple times. I believed it, but I didn’t really understand how it was accomplished. Thanks for a very valuable contribution to my “knowledge bank.”
Frank, I too thank you for this post. I have booked marked it to share.
Technology we cannot buy…excerpts from Secretsquirrels’s link on Robert Friedland…edited
[One of Friedland’s biggest passions these days…is a privately held technology company called I-Pulse that he has worked on (about) 15 years with his partner and mentor, Laurent Frescaline, an engineer and scientist focused on plasma physics. Frescaline received France’s Chevalier de l’Ordre National du Mérite for his defence-sector work, cofounded the company with Friedland in 2007. It is 51%-owned by Ivanhoe Industries.
I-Pulse has developed disruptive ways to use electrical energy and has a valuation north of US$1 billion, which makes it a unicorn, Friedland says.
The technology involves the utilization of proprietary components to compress electrical energy in extremely large bursts of power that require very small amounts of electrical energy.
The technology works by repeatedly compressing and releasing pulses of electrical energy in billionths of a second. The extremely high-powered discharges can generate precise shockwaves directed to enhance oil-well production; generate electrical fields that reveal chargeable or resistive mineral deposits, or liquid reservoirs, at depth; shape and assemble metals to previously unachievable degrees or precision, and crush rock containing minerals or gemstones with significantly reduced energy requirements.
In terms of the technology’s ability to shape and assemble metals, Friedland says, it has got the company into the heart of the aviation and automobile industries.
“We have a strategic relationship with one of the world’s largest aircraft manufacturers and we have a strategic relationship with one or more of the world’s largest automobile manufacturers,” he says, “and it’s gotten us inside R&D labs, inside the industrial-design process, and that has deepened our absolute faith in the transformation coming in the automobile and aircraft industries.”
In addition, the technologies I-Pulse is developing enable more effective exploration for metals, oil and gas, and water through a division of the company called High Power Exploration (HPX), a private mineral exploration company that Friedland heads as CEO. The company’s Typhoon data acquisition system is an accurate and powerful induced polarization and electromagnetic geophysical survey technology.
“We run some of the world’s most sophisticated geophysical exploration programs through using extremely high bursts of electrical power,” he explains. “We utilize our suite of technologies and we use extremely sophisticated machines, the first generation is called Zeus, and the new generation is called Typhoon, and we use that to search for copper and gold and other electrically conductive metals.”
The I-Pulse group of companies also processes the induced polarization and electromagnetic signals HPX gets from that technology and uses it in its software division, Computational Geosciences, based in Vancouver. Computational Geosciences is a world leader in the inversion and manipulation of geophysical data—a key tool for mineral exploration.
“We perform that work for the major mining companies as well as for our own efforts,” Friedland says. “So once we have the raw geophysical data, we are a world leader in the manipulation of that data. So these two technologies give us a long-term strategic advantage in searching for minerals globally and put us in discussions with mining ministers and heads of state and give us a long-term advantage for looking for metals.”
I-Pulse technology also will have a significant impact on how mineral ores are mined and processed, he notes. “In the future, we’ll be able to crush and grind rock with much less energy than we currently require, and with the use of the same core technology, we’ll have a much greater ability to recover metals from rock than we’re currently able to do. So, I-Pulse is the most important company that we’re engaged with as a group.”
Says it all and much more!
Thanks for bringing both to my attention originally….
The future of metals according to Robert Friedland…his favorite metals for investment outlook, in order, are
copper, nickel, cobalt; then platinum, palladium, and silver.
Read:
Ivanhoe-Kamoa/Kakula;
CleanTeQ-Syerston;
CleanTeQ-Syerston;
Ivanhoe-Platreefs;
Ivanhoe-Platreefs.
He is a little like us…he’s somewhat light on the silver. And we see why he might want to sell Kipushi, which has an orebody of zinc that is over 30% zinc. Robert is not so wild about zinc.
Long $IVPAF, long $CTEQF
Thanks hn,
RF has 2 of the most interesting companies that we here can also be part of.
Ivanhoe and CleanTeQ are my biggest holdings in that order.
Long C$IVN
Long C$CLQ
$IVPAF, $CTEQF…I’m pretty much hunkered down with big positions in these two, and a lot of levered precious metals stocks like Sandstorm, PVG, MAG etc. and my favorite exploration and development plays. Still have some positions in biotech, too.
But I am mostly waiting now. Not much trading or repositioning to do until fireworks start one way or the other. This year started great but my lousy entries and recent pullbacks have knocked me down considerably. Still in the black but not like a month ago.
I think your pattern for the year is shared by most in this sector. SAND and CTEQF tanking sucked for me too. Now CTEQF is dominant in my portfolio, and very solid positions in IVPAF, RGLD, SAND. Actually I’m down to 6 holdings only, I had been up to 15. Still have my TLRS and also holding KLDGF. I’m in at great prices on all of that, most of what I sold was in the green with only 2 exceptions, so now just left with the companies I can see holding long term [TLRS i have a half sell target]. Most of my $$$ for this is locked up, so seems like, after a very active phase, I can go passive until something tells me to move.
ironically one of my two losses was mariana, I bought it at 99 cents and sold it at 69 cents a month ago, so I pretty much maxed out on eating sh*t. Fortunately my other successes allow me to laugh that one off. My ledger was desperate for a tax loss, so at least it serves me that along with my poop.
$MRLDF…I was also badly in the red over the summer during the failed coup attempt. I had enough courage to stay long but not enough conviction or guts to buy more.
I have noticed for months that I have a handful of stocks (mostly non-pm) and a larger handful of stocks (mostly pm) that do an almost daily “switch” with each other in terms of gains or losses. One day group 1 is up and group 2 is down, and the next day the opposite is true. I have my positions page (in Scottrade) set to order the list by % gain or loss each day, so the pattern is very easy to spot.
It makes me wonder what is behind market moves. I’m pretty sure that the fundamentals of each of these companies does not change on a daily basis! Is it “sentiment” that bobs up and down almost daily? I would think that the moves are pushed one way or the other by institutional investors, and not by a bunch of little guys like us deciding on a daily basis which stocks they want to buy and sell. Are there that many traders out there?
Someone with more experience, can you shed some light on this strange pattern?
Leslie…
–optimism in paper assets: Stock market up, PMs down.
–pessimism in paper assets: Stock market down, PMs up.
HN, But every day a switch from one to the other? It seems a strange semi-pattern to me.
Leslie: tens of thousands of people are employed in playing the markets. If it was static (other than real news) they wouldnt make a penny. They make money by driving prices up, then selling , driving prices down, then re-buying and driving prices up…. wash, rinse repeat. Now there are only two ways for you to stop your worrying. 1/ Go long….buy a stock, turn your computer off for 6months then come back and see how much youve made or lost. 2/ Glue your eyes to the screen, ‘Trade’ in and out hoping to skim a few cents from predicting the helter skelter ride like the pro’s. You want an investment certainty? buy a coffin.
Hi, Alan. Good explanation re the thousands of traders buying and selling.
Actually, I haven’t “worried” about it at all. I’m an investor, not a trader. I’m very comfortable with the positions I have, and I am happy just sitting and waiting. I had just never organized my list of equities (according to %+/-) in that manner before, so I had not noticed the daily pattern.
I still find it interesting. It’s as if half the thousands of traders are buying one day and selling the next, and the other half are doing the opposite. Interesting human behavior. I wonder if everyone just sort of breaks equally even in the end–the “A” day and the “B” day folks. It would make an interesting study for a micro-economist.
leslie7 You are seeing traders, most likely using a computer algorithm, buying and selling on an established cycle. When a stock is trading sideways such a pattern is easy to establish on any news that either makes it rise or fall. The traders operate on small amounts traded on huge amounts of shares..
Retail traders,the public, see movement and buy if stock is rising , usually near the top . On that influx traders sell big lots and drive price down, so retail traders sell at or near bottom. Wholesale traders buy big lots , driving price up. Repeat until cycle starts to level out with less distance between low and high as retail runs out of funds and wholesale traders move to another stock, often a different sector where a cyclical pattern has begun, noticed by the computer model/algorithm. The trend is your friend,,, does not apply to such small trends for retail investors/traders such as we. You can play the same game at times and pick up a little change,,, which can rapidly turn into a loss if wholesale traders suddenly and unexpectedly move to another stock.
Leslie: First, let me make this plain: I was not at all having a dig at you personally. My message was meant widely. We are a team and I think its important that we all sing/add to the same hymn sheet. That way, if one fails/gains, we all fail/gain. As a team we must learn from any mistake so as not to repeat it.
Now lets look at how the market works: The market goes up and down daily. All that really means is that the traders are scalping each other. As a long, your stox will also inevitably go up and down daily, but over time those up/down movement equal out, so they are irrelevant so long as you dont panic and exit. Only firm ‘news’ changes the value of your long position. If youve thought the INVESTMENT, the news should be predictable and 60/40 in your favour. If the odds are any worse, someone lied to us or OUR DD was faulty.
Re someone lied….thats why you ONLY invest in management that has a history of NOT being liars.
Re faulty DD…as a team we live and learn…that way we learn and fail less often in future.
GL all.
Good points, Alan. Especially about managers with an excellent reputation. And this team certainly is a good one! (No worries. I didn’t take it as a dig; was just explaining where I was coming from.)
Alanh,
I think you misinterpreted my curiosity as worry. I’m an investor, not a trader, and I never worry about prices bouncing around–except if I’m waiting to back up the truck. 🙂 I just like watching what’s going on. Not worrying about anything these days except the economy at large–and there’s not much I can do about that other than hedge my bets.
The daily prices are decided by a relatively small fringe of buyers and sellers who are actually motivated enough to do something. It is their perception of future prospects that is coloring the larger core of holdings that are not traded.
This fringe of active traders, in any sector, commodity, or security, can be overweight in either buyers or sellers.
no $ticker
HN – This is blindingly obvious, BUT, until you mentioned it, I never thought of the market in this way. I will remember your perception for a LONG time.
Thanks,
PetervR
Minus some important news (which is unpredictable, so why worry?) the instant/daily/weekly sp movements should be a matter of total irrelevance to any long. You became long because you believed in the company’s LONG TERM prospects (or you foolishly mixed up long with trading). Choose which type of investor you are. Dont mix them or you will get ulcers. You wanna play? Trade! You wanna invest? Do your DD, lay your money down and turn the flaming computer off. What will be will be. Unless youre the taxman, theres only one certain investment…a coffin. Everything else is a gamble. Of course youre hoping for a 100% winner, but if you cant accept that you may equally lose 100% of your investment, dont play ! Those are the stakes.
Alan – plain talk, but you make important observations. It makes me sad when I see people. who consider themselves “investors”, get perturbed over daily price fluctuations.
It makes me gnash my teeth to hear them bleat. Im a trader by nature. I know what Im getting myself into and I accept that risk. In retrospect, I often realise that I could have gone long and earned more money with far less effort, coz Im out when it goes ballistic. But Im buying the adrenaline rush and it suits me. Each to their own, but please, no tears and no sympathy. You called the roulette number….now sweat with it. If you cant handle the stress/loss, dont play.
These threads are about opinion and relaying news that adds to your DD and helps you react the faster….they are NOT about ‘OMG my stox gone up/down 3%. what should I do?’ If thats all you have to offer, please spare me your pixels. I simply dont care. Ive got my own problems.
Alanh…re: approaches to stocks…Alanh’s observations highlight the need to be clear with ourselves on what our approaches are. There is a big difference between trading and investing with respect to time frames. We also need clear ideas of what we can accept or handle emotionally in terms of profits and losses.
Often these differences in approach will lead to two reasonable individuals taking the opposite course of action. It is simply a matter of individual style and approach.
NO Ticker
Here is a third approach. Have 80% of your funds in the investment side, and trade with the balance.
Others may find 90/10 a better split.
I like it, hedy1234. It would help with the emotions if you can take advantage of the volatility without losing your core position.
Hedy: there are at least 200 approaches….0 to 100% trading to investing…then theres shorting and options !!! A stock can only go up, down or sideways. Who coild imagine that there were so many ways to play just 3 possibilities?
Alan you are absolutely correct. I was merely providing an approach for those concerned about speculating too much and not protecting their core savings.
When they worry about the movement of the daily price – “who ‘drove’ the price down 7%? anyone know?!”, I’m asking myself if they’ve ever even looked at the charts of stocks, and what they’re doing playing in biotech if they’re this wet behind the ears.”
Profit in the stock market is made when one acts on an opinion, and other people agree with your opinion, but they agree LATER.
That one is quotable, HN! 🙂
“Profit in the stock market is made when one acts on an opinion, and other people agree with your opinion, but they agree LATER.”
Also known as the greater fool theory.
Also remember the person that sells it to you sees YOU as the LATER person.
🙂 🙂
You can also have a negative opinion and SELL before the crowd does.
Figuring stuff out before everybody else is definitely the idea. Mostly I’m trying to hone into unfolding truth, but with these speculative gold companies, I’m learning, ultimate truth might be less important than just figuring out the timing of the cycle of illusion.
LOL, “cycle of illusion” That’s something to remember. Love it.
Doug Casey makes just this point, that one can make money on gold speculations even if a profitable mine is never built on the property in a reasonable timeframe.
However it is my intention to focus on the better prospects that have real long-term possibilities. This is a method I prefer for obvious reasons…the main reason being that there is actually something there of value that one can expect to be realized at some point.
I have conceded that one can make money on stocks that I do not believe are good long term investments. For example, a lot of people may make money on $NAK by trading sentiment. But this is not an approach I wish to entertain on the thread.
FYI =- EV Company News For The Month Of April 2017
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4067449-ev-company-news-month-april-2017?app=1&uprof=46&isDirectRoadblock=true
I have started to follow another analyst on SA becuse of a article that I thought was well written. Unfortunately he only appears to be batting .500. The article was written on the Tesla Semi truck to be unveiled in September. The article tries to make a case that lithium batteries do not support a long haul Semi truck. The weight given for the semi is 80k pounds which is good for a fully loaded long haul Semi tractor and trailer. Not all long haulers are fully loaded and there is no information to that effect. In addition it also assumes that the lithium battery will take space and weight away from the pay load but no facts given to back that up. Until Tesla Semi truck is made public its not even good speculation. If someone is interested here is the link;
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4064435-teslas-semi-truck-much-weight-decade-late?source=email_rt_author_readmore&app=1&uprof=46&isDirectRoadblock=true
xposted
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mohamed-el-erian-just-hit-163942140.html
I do admire this man, but this is where I find Martin Armstrong’s analysis superior. The stock market is not merely a reflection of optimism in the underlying stocks. It can also be a reflection of fear in the bond markets. Big money needs somewhere to park, and when the enormous size of the bond market is considered, even the beginning of fear that governments may default, or give bond holders a ‘haircut’ is going to give a lift to the alternatives, so gold stocks, the general stock-market, bitcoin, etc etc, will be beneficiaries.
According to an article I just read by Jim Rickards, el-Arian is pushing for a global currency. Would that affect his viewpoint/recommendations?
Rickard’s:
Don’t Be Surprised When IMF World Money Takes Over. You’ve Been Warned
We have consistently advised readers that the global monetary elite do not operate in total secrecy. Often they hide in plain sight! The elites may have their own designs for you and me, but they must still operate within the norms of institutions and democratic processes. The result is a method I call “transparently non-transparent.” The elites actually publish their intentions, but they do so using technical jargon and obscure websites than almost no one reads and very few understand. That way they can say, “I told you so!” when in fact nobody saw their schemes coming. This article comes from a geeky website called “Project Syndicate” (nice name, right?). One of the top global elites, Mohamed A. El-Erian —formerly with the International Monetary Fund, IMF, and former co-head of bond giant PIMCO — has given us an updated blueprint for the rollout and use of IMF world money called “SDRs.” Regarding SDRs El-Erian writes, “Specifically, the Fund would need to complement its traditional core constituency of governments and other multilateral institutions (particularly the World Bank) with systemically influential sub-national and private counterparts.” In other words, the latest plan is for the IMF to combine forces with mega-banks, and big investors like BlackRock and PIMCO to implement the world money plan. By the way, this article was published one day after the IMF spring meetings in Washington. That’s no coincidence. Clearly SDRs were on the “secret” agenda at the IMF (not the one they publish, but the one that goes on over private dinners and behind closed doors). El-Erian is “signaling” other global elites about the SDR plan so they can prepare accordingly. You can prepare too. Don’t rely on dollars to preserve your wealth. It’s time to get into gold, silver, land, fine art, and other assets of our permanent portfolio.
I just read something by Jim Rickard’s in which he indicated that el-Arian is one of the global elites pushing for “world money.” Could that be “coloring” what el-Arian thinks/writes? I’m a bit suspicious these days about what people put forth in the media. Are they manipulating or telling the unvarnished truth? For example, the big bankers saying that gold and silver are barbarous relics, while at the same time they are driving down the prices of pms and (apparently) hoarding them. JP Morgan has accumulated 600 million ounces of silver. That’s an awful lot of barbarous relics.
Here’s what Rickard’s wrote:
Don’t Be Surprised When IMF World Money Takes Over. You’ve Been Warned
We have consistently advised readers that the global monetary elite do not operate in total secrecy. Often they hide in plain sight! The elites may have their own designs for you and me, but they must still operate within the norms of institutions and democratic processes. The result is a method I call “transparently non-transparent.” The elites actually publish their intentions, but they do so using technical jargon and obscure websites than almost no one reads and very few understand. That way they can say, “I told you so!” when in fact nobody saw their schemes coming. This article comes from a geeky website called “Project Syndicate” (nice name, right?). One of the top global elites, Mohamed A. El-Erian —formerly with the International Monetary Fund, IMF, and former co-head of bond giant PIMCO — has given us an updated blueprint for the rollout and use of IMF world money called “SDRs.” Regarding SDRs El-Erian writes, “Specifically, the Fund would need to complement its traditional core constituency of governments and other multilateral institutions (particularly the World Bank) with systemically influential sub-national and private counterparts.” In other words, the latest plan is for the IMF to combine forces with mega-banks, and big investors like BlackRock and PIMCO to implement the world money plan. By the way, this article was published one day after the IMF spring meetings in Washington. That’s no coincidence. Clearly SDRs were on the “secret” agenda at the IMF (not the one they publish, but the one that goes on over private dinners and behind closed doors). El-Erian is “signaling” other global elites about the SDR plan so they can prepare accordingly. You can prepare too. Don’t rely on dollars to preserve your wealth. It’s time to get into gold, silver, land, fine art, and other assets of our permanent portfolio.
You could be right, Leslie. It’s hard to know who are true believers and who are cold manipulators. Armstrong thinks they don’t know what to do, don’t know what they’re talking about, or are afraid to say in public what they think privately. He has said repeatedly that the IMF is too corrupt and should not be the ones in charge of ‘world money’ – SDR’s.
Wish I was one of the billionaires who could afford a private island and a ‘copter to take me there if things get too crazy. 🙂
I like the way Armstrong is thinking…especially regarding the “second-tier” elites. I think the “first-tier” elites (Bilderberg, Foreign Relations Council, and Trilateral Commission folks) know exactly what they want to do and don’t give a **** what happens to the rest of us.
I don’t see a way out of the financial mess other than a painful (for the 99%) re-set.
I’m with you on the ‘copter idea, too. Hey, maybe a few of us gummies could get together and rent a dinghy that doesn’t have too many holes, and paddle on over to Costa Rica…or better yet, that private island. 🙂
🙂 Armstrong says maybe we can all meet somewhere in the Pacific, each of us bringing our own rock, and we’ll pile them up to make our own island. He also says take delivery of whatever you can, stock certificates included.
Hmm. I’ve actually heard that elsewhere (regarding taking delivery of stock certificates). I’ve also heard that it’s somewhat difficult to do these days.
Even if I knew how to take delivery of all of my stock certificates (I suppose that info resides somewhere on the internet or with my broker), what good would that do in the event of a great collapse and/or a government takeover of companies and mines? Serious question.
I think it really depends on how much you own, at least in my mind. I’m not going to try if for a few thousand dollars. If you take delivery of stock certificates, no brokerage has them, and therefore can’t ‘lose’ them. Read up on MF Global, and you’ll see why.
The brokerage houses CAN lose your money. People might pooh pooh that but did we see 2008 coming? MFGlobal?
Not even stock certificates will save you if we have a Mad Max event, but in that case…grab that rock and head to the Pacific…
And another politician in the midst….2011 and on going saga. Thanks for posting this Sharon, quite a read from wiki…when I googled it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MF_Global
Unfortunately I have come to the opinion that many “respectable” institutions are basically full of crooks and hypocrites. Greedy ones, too.
$KLDGF – Kirkland Lake Announces Further High-Grade Drill Results on the Lower Phoenix and Harrier Gold Systems at the Fosterville Mine
http://www.klgold.com/news-and-media/news-releases/press-release-details/2017/Kirkland-Lake-Announces-Further-High-Grade-Drill-Results-on-the-Lower-Phoenix-and-Harrier-Gold-Systems-at-the-Fosterville-Mine/default.aspx
HN originally found Kirkland as newmarket I don’t remember if he is still in it. The driling results in this press release are outstanding among the best I’ve seen.
No position
$kirkland
Results cannot overcome general gold malaise. Down so far today.
Kirkland and Newmarket…these were subjects of discussion by Myron, I have not followed them and I have no position in either.
As a general rule, I don’t duplicate effort on subjects of Myron’s analysis. He is more qualified than I am and does good analysis so I don’t feel the need.
If one of his picks interests me then I check into it a little deeper. K92 is in this category.
Kirkland Lake…the drill assays do look very nice. While reviewing the release, I noticed that the town of Fosterville was mentioned. This rings a bell because I made a mention of a very far-out
Australian gold speculation, Citigold, but closed it out because it was just too sketchy even for me. Citigold had claims in Fosterville. Wonder if there is any connection.
No position Kirkland or Citigold
Kirkland is one of my 6 present holdings. I want to stay leveraged to the price of gold, and the more I learn about this sector, the less comfortable I am holding a basket of explorers. I needed some real above ground gold, I like Kirkland a lot as an investment, they seem like they are in serious growth mode, and they’re producing now like a mid.
Robert Friedland Inc.:
“We have a strategic relationship with one of the world’s largest aircraft manufacturers and we have a strategic relationship with one or more of the world’s largest automobile manufacturers,” he says, “and it’s gotten us inside R&D labs, inside the industrial-design process, and that has deepened our absolute faith in the transformation coming in the automobile and aircraft industries.”
Friedland’s quote refers to one of his private companies, I-pulse. I surmise that these strategic relationships will be extended to other companies in Friedland’s stable of public and private
companies; the aircraft company is certainly Airbus. No opinion on the car company.
I refer of course to $CTEQF CleanTeQ, which will have scandium and cobalt for sale. Both have high-tech application in the aerospace and transportation industries.
Long $RobertFriedland.
Love the “Long $Robert Friedland.” 🙂
I learn sooo much from all of you at this site. So far have considered my biotechs as my longs and miners for trading for entertainment-just can’t seem to turn off the computer!!! Ivanhoe has me a little perplexed tho- sentiment here is so positive for it. More long then short term??
It is astonishing how little regard Ivanhoe has. On pullbacks, I have started to just shrug my shoulders and try to figure out how to accumulate more.
This marks quite a change in my outlook. A year ago I would find the pullbacks emotionally trying. What I have come to believe is that our emotions and short-term obsessions are detrimental to
our long-term results. The key seems to be to have patience, position sizes that are manageable emotionally, and to be right about the underlying company and its management and have justifiable conviction.
The drills are drilling, the site just keeps getting bigger, size far from finished. The markets, the manipulation or tree shaking keeps going. Ivanhoe ignores all of this of course as they are to busy getting on with the job at hand, building value for themselves and shareholders.
Ignore the noise, see the fundementials. Now I would be addng more, but my postion is large and Long and I’m no trader.
Drykoff, my opinion is that Ivanhoe is a bargain, whether you are a short-term trader or a long-term investor. The real assets are just so far above the market cap, I think the odds are good on the long side.
Only a few weeks ago Ivanhoe traded over $4. So I think pretty good gains may be had for traders.
Big picture, when all is said and done, the stock seems to be pretty sensitive to copper prices. The recent ascent and pullback of Ivanhoe is roughly correlative to the action in copper prices….for a long time copper was in the $2 range. When copper spurted to $2.70, Ivanhoe made a huge move. But now copper has drifted back to the 2.50-2.60 range and Ivan is in the doldrums.
Remember also that Ivanhoe is not really producing a lot.
No sales, no profits, no dividends. So the sentiments of the trading community can have really big effects, it’s not like there are normal metrics to hang your hat on. It is still an obscure, small-cap pink sheet stock, despite the esteem in which it is held by Yours Truly.
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd.
May 03, 2017 13:56 ET
Ivanhoe Mines comments on share price
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired – May 3, 2017) – Ivanhoe Mines (TSX:IVN)(OTCQX:IVPAF) announced today that the company is not aware of any specific reason, other than short-term fluctuations in commodity prices, that might be contributing to the recent decline in the company’s share price.
The company stated that it is making excellent progress at all of its three mine development projects – Kamoa-Kakula, Kipushi and Platreef. The expanded drilling program at the Kamoa-Kakula Project is continuing with 14 drill rigs on site and the updated resource estimate for the high-grade Kakula Discovery is expected this month.
http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/ivanhoe-mines-comments-on-share-price-tsx-ivn-2213865.htm
Long C$IVN for the long haul. …
I think then both options are good! 1 account for long and 1 for trading-gradually adding to both when SP down like this. What a great group this is. I may even have a little bit of a clue ……eventually. Now if your dog is limping I’m pretty good 🙂
So, thats the game (or at least it is for me). Ill have an investment % position and a variable trading % position. When the price falls, Ill add to my trading position (if nothing else it works towards averaging down) Then when it bounces (as it always does sooner or later short of hard news) Ill sell the trading shares and take the gain, while leaving my revalued core position intact.
As you say Alan there are many approaches. The one you described above is a great micro view of a single stock strategy.
There is also the macro view of your investment portfolio where you have vast majority of your investments in core stock holdings (perhaps more conservative stocks).
The macro balance of your funds goes to more speculative positions where you are trying to add Alpha.
In this model all your small biotechs could be in the speculative portion of your portfolio.
$IVPAF…sure better at $3.10 than $3.60.
$noticker. The direction of the dollar will influence precious metal prices near term. We don’t need much downward movement to kick start an upward trend. May be a few more tough days or weeks for precious metals, but once $ threshold is broke to downside a wee bit more, metals and associated stock’s will move. Just my opinion and I could be wrong…Silver should lead.
V/r
Jdd
I think you are right, Denton. I know gold and silver are sagging again, and that can look discouraging, but Martin Armstrong is actually hoping that it will go down sharply to be the fuel to produce a big slingshot. As he puts it – you’ve got to exhaust the longs, have people say it has no future, because then there are no sellers left, only buyers…
$TRQ Turquoise Hill…for those of you who get skittish at my obscure developers and explorers, I would like to mention TRQ Turquoise Hill Resources. No position at the moment.
$TRQ is a real miner. It has production, sales, profits, and so forth. It is the company that was created by Robert Friedland’s discovery of the Oyu Tolghoi copper/gold in Mongolia. Market cap is $5 or $6 billion. The stock is trading around $2.60 but has been as high as $11 and as low as $1.55 in recent memory. It was at the low for about 25 seconds; so overall the stock is at very cheap prices.
I remind you: Miners Suck. However because $TRQ sucks so bad recently, its price is getting down to levels that I think are worth considering. When copper and gold go up, $TRQ’s profits will be very leveraged.
The key points about the company are: It is fine cash-wise, low debt and good metrics. It has a huge multi-faceted underground deposit which will be producing metal for decades. There is no deposit risk. The deposit is so large that the mine construction and expansion will be in years; but production is already underway. Oyu Tolghoi is one of the biggest bulls in the bull elephant herd.
The main risks are commodity prices, and whatever risk there is having a major asset in Mongolia. You’ve got a landlocked country sandwiched between China and Russia.
I’m interested under $3.00 but have no position at the moment.
TRQ long: Ive owned since Myrons call….its been painful. Id be careful about an entry till $2.
$TRQ…Alanh…I thought about you when I wrote about TRQ. The long term chart shows a lot of suffering, a steady march downwards from $11 to a lackluster floor. At some point the stock is just wrung out. But the underlying asset is valuable.
TRQ: Thanks for the reassurance HN. Its held in a different account that I only look at once a month….I kept thinking ‘It can only get better’. Hmm?
Contagions, this is the sort of thing that explains why huge events, i.e. 2008 crash, can seem to come out of nowhere and happen so fast, and still confuse a lot of people after who are wondering why it ever happened. We have set up a lot of latent energy in our massive debt/derivatives/unsound policies/cultural degradation (that counts!), and one day, that tiny domino will suddenly fall, and a whole lot of people won’t understand where the craziness came from.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/how-small-events-can-cascade-into-contagions/
Sharon, timing or ?? that Martin A posts this just as Puerto Rico is going bankrupt and billions of $ in PR Bonds are affecting many Funds etc. Will this be that smallest domino??
$ERDCF…gold and commodity beat-down…really bad day in the sector. Gruesome.
But for some reason Erdene Resources is spiking on no news. It hit $1.00.
Long $ERDCF
$ERDCF…Erdene Resource Development…there must be something happening. Take a look at the charts on this one. Three spikes straight up, the most recent one this week while gold is tanking and the sector is in retreat.
I am long from 26 cents so I am at home run territory…4x investment…and there is NO NEWS.
I’d crow about it, but overall I am getting beaten black and blue this week and the Sandstorm/Mariana announcement has been a bust as far as Sandstorm is concerned. And my Erdene position was reduced
to raise cash for CleanTeQ, so the home run is not of epic proportions.
Long $ERDCF, waiting for news.
Long $SAND, long $MRLDF, long $CTEQF
They are doing infill drilling now and then they will go after expanding the resource. I think this will be another “Oyu Tolgoi”, non-Friedland discovery. Long since CAD 0.3, adding on dips, ACB now at 0.6 CAD.
Read their recent NR, promising exploration play.
$PVG…looking ahead to the results of commissioning
Pretium Resources started testing their brand new Brucejack mill in April.
While the testing is meant to make sure the equipment is functioning, there are some clues that may come from the test results, if they are announced, that have a bearing on future production and profitability.
The amount of ore processed for the test was announced as 900 tons. This is exactly one-third of one day’s production as announced in the plans…the mill is stated to have a 2700 ton per day capacity.
From the feasibility studies, that the average ore grade forecasted is 16 grams gold per ton.
Thus, from the first sample production, if results are announced, we may get an indication of whether the pro-formas are likely to be achieved.
Here is the math:
A. 900 tons of ore test x 16 grams gold per ton from studies = 14,400 grams gold expected
B. 900 tons = 1/3 of a day capacity, thus full day capacity =14,400 grams x 3= 43,200 grams gold forecasted for daily output
C. 43,200 grams = 43.2 kilograms gold daily production capacity
D. Approximate value per kilogram is $40,000 at current prices. Thus daily production will be worth
approximately 43.2 x $40,000 = $ 1,728,000
There are also likely to be revisions to the forecasted AISC but I would not expect meaningful figures until a few months of production are in.
However the results from 900 tons of ore do seem to be meaningful, at least to me. The baseline target is 14,400 grams gold from 900 tons of ore, since this will fulfill minimum expectations of ore quality, as stated in the PEAs.
$ERDCF Erdene Resource Development…there were drill results announced on May 4, but because the company is Canadian the release was not widely distributed on US wire services.
http://www.erdene.com/news_releases17/pdf/ERD-Release-BK-May-4th-Update.pdf
The results are excellent…80 meters at 6 grams gold per ton. There are now all of two drill rigs working.
It looks to me that an economical gold deposit a few kilometers in dimension is being defined.
$ERDCF…for those of you who find Mongolia a little sketchy, it so happens Sandstorm Gold holds a 2% NSR on the Erdene claim. So by owning Sandstorm you are getting 2% of Erdene’s gold production off the top, if there ever is any.
Thanks for all your research and sleuthing, HN. Your reward will be in heaven.
A little here on earth would be nice. It’s great to be right about Mariana but what a bummer the way Sandstorm is being treated.
And furthermore…Sandstorm has a sizeable stock position in Erdene also. You’d think they’d get a little credit.
$SAND (long)Treated is the right word. We now know the opinion of investors about owning a company in Turkey. Don’t. Money is flowing out of there and they are hurting, with Erdogan being deaf to anything but his own ambition.
However, $SAND is still down, and I actually like the roll of the dice he has taken, and since gold is also going down, he’s going to have more dice to roll. I love his approach, his loathing of debt, and the fact that this is ‘his’ company and he is young enough to keep building it up for many a year to come.
I’m going to pray for more downside, and keep stacking what I own in SAND.
Martin Armstrong has repeatedly said that the best upside for gold, the strongest bull market, will be created by a sudden outflow, the surrender of ‘longs’ so that the PMs aren’t grimly holding, but dropping rapidly. So here’s hoping. A downturn will take SAND and other mining stocks with it, and I’ll sell something to add more to add to my gold positions if I have to.
Sharon…I like his approach and what I can see of his character also.
It fits with my own outlook.
The Mariana combination is a large bet but he is doing it mostly with stock, the amount of cash he is putting in is manageable and not life threatening.
Plus, he has stated the equity position it is a “bridge” situation. He intends to convert the 30% Hot Maden interest into a stream or royalty. The timing and terms of this future transaction could catapult the company into a different level, income-wise.
My guess is he will wait for the right time. This will be a critical strategic transaction for the company and I believe he can wait for the right situation. They are not under cash pressure.
Good sleuthing, HN!
Long $ERDCF
$TRQ further thoughts…Reading through the Turquoise Hill investor presentation and website, I was struck by how different in nature this company is compared to others we have been examining.
The project is so large and complex, and so capital intensive, that it really seems to me to be a different animal compared to the reed-thin market cap companies we have been discussing.
Of course the ultimate success of the company depends on commodity prices and political stability in its jurisdiction. But that seems to be about the only commonality with other miners
we have discussed.
Capex and sustaining capital are in the billions and billions.
The project is simply enormous, and while the resource is gigantic
the underground nature of it requires huge infrastructure that will take years and years to complete.
Capital expenditures in the tens of billions are just in a different universe compared to, say, Pretium, who is building a mine for $800 million; or a developer like Mariana, whose entire market cap is maybe couple of hundred million, on a good day; or Sandstorm Gold, with a market cap of 600 million.
Statistically, the value of $TRQ is there. They show six different valuation methods that put its value well above its current market cap. And when commodities go up, the company’s stock price will also.
Another thing to consider is the ore grade. While the resource is enormous, the copper grades are far inferior to Kamoa/Kakula, for example; hence more capital will be required to process ore for a given amount of economical metal. Oyu Tolghoi must have enormous volume
to be economical, there must be huge production for the project to be profitable.
Proximity to the Chinese market is a plus. International consortiums to back it are a plus, but also a necessity on account of its size.
In the end, the huge amount of fixed expenses and giant overhead make it the antithesis of the type of company I am looking for in terms of optionality. This is not to say that the stock cannot appreciate wildly at some point.
No interest in going long at this point, although when a secular bull starts in commodity companies, or if the price drops further to really absurdly low levels, I would consider it.
HN:
Thought of your quote that “Miners suck” when MAG reported as stated below.
I Wonder how the company will ever justify any investment in terms of payoff to investors. Take over perhaps? A recent example of this is XRA.
“For the year, the company reported- that its loss widened to $55.8 million, or 71 cents per share.”
Russ, they are not producing anything yet, they are digging to get to the deposit,
Why would anyone expect a profit now ?
$SAND _ Record-breaking quarter (SA article)
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4071003-sandstorm-gold-record-breaking-quarter…
Summary: Sandstorm Gold just reported one of its strongest quarters in its history.
The company benefited from record gold equivalent ounces sold, low cash costs and higher gold prices.
Sandstorm Gold’s stock price has been hampered by a slump in gold prices and its questionable deal with Mariana Resources.
Long $SAND
Thanks, Leslie. Long SAND, – overweight, and I like seeing it in the portfolio. It’s comforting, like having insurance.
$NAK
FYI up about 30% in past few days.
Want to understand why some of your favorite stocks like SAND, MAG, and quite a few others talked about here are tanking worse than seems reasonable, educate yourself about the GDXJ mess resulting from its rebalancing due to its own success. There may be opportunity for those understanding what is going on here. Here’s one link to get you started, http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-19/real-message-gdxj-mess. Note the companies on the delete list. For instance, they be selling 10 mil shares of SAND, not even sure if that has started yet. On the other side, once all this selling is over, these stocks should rebalance towards their true valuation.
Here is another take take on the GDJX mess from Eric Muschinski Gold Investment Letter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IacQYTqaf78
Griffin,
Thanks for the post & link.. I did not see GIL in the Gummy newsletter review. If you are a subscriber, can you comment about what you think of the recos?
I subscribe to to the freebie which is where that link came from.. Some of his recos are also seen here TLRS, SLW, SAND, SSV, BGAVF, PGOL.I get the impression he is a technician but few details. I bought into one of his recos Bravada Gold $BGAVF. It was supose to double by years (last) end, it didn’t, still hasn’t. I think he is overly optimistic. I have kept the back issues.
who the fellow from Renbycage’s posting or Eric M ? Difficult to follow on an iPhone as these DO NOT come in threads.
The last 2 paragraphs summarized what most of know (or have read):
“Maybe this GDXJ problem is the shot across of the bow. Maybe Grant Williams’ theory about how little it will take to move this market is starting to come true.
There is precious little room for everyone in the gold boat. This is made all too clear with the problems we quickly experienced from a little interest in GDXJ.”
Long $SAND
Statement below was published by ‘Otto Rock’ on his IKN blog. (In case you don’t know him, he is very outspoken and does not tolerate any BS, pumping, or any other shenanigans. If he says a stock is cheap, it is a pretty good bet.)
“Sandstorm (SAND) (SSL.to)
It’s amazingly cheap right now. I actually read some dumbass sell side anal yst report this morning saying Osisko was comparatively better value than SAND. That author is either on drugs, dropping his underpants to Sean, or plain stupid!”
Doc marburger…I agree with the analyst you quote about Sanstorm although there’s is no need to insult those of a contrary opinion.
That would be my preference also. I think he is just so frustrated with all the shenanigans including all the incompetent and/or dishonest analysts, promoters, mining executives, etc. while being a rather lonely voice publicly calling them out. Especially as I have heard a wise person say, “Miners suck!”.