MAKE YOUR PORTFOLIO GREAT AGAIN !
This thread is a continuation of several threads posted previously by the author on gold and silver and hard asset investments. I am still a believer in hard assets. I also believe we are entering a period of inflation with continued dollar devaluation, higher interest rates, and a sluggish economy with chaotic dislocations. I believe there will be a lot of uncertainty and high volatility.
PURPOSE My intent is to find and discuss good mining and commodity ideas. Gold and silver remain a focus, but I want to achieve a more balanced approach still based on tangible commodities.
STEEL and IRON ORE…I believe Trump’s programs will benefit iron ore and steel. Stocks in this sector have been beaten down terribly but are rebounding. I am long VALE, a Brazilian company which is the world’s largest iron ore producer. I have been long Arcelor Mittal but do not have a position at the moment. Anybody know anything about cement and asphalt ?
COPPER, ZINC, PGM METALS…My very best conviction stock is Ivanhoe Mines IVPAF. I am completely comfortable with a large single position in IVPAF to cover these metals. However other investors may be uncomfortable with a small cap in sub-Saharan Africa. So I think it is beneficial to introduce other names even though I myself am not interested. Rio Tinto, Freeport-McMoran, Teck, Turquoise Hill, BHP and others come to mind. Travis, our host, is long Altius Minerals, and I have been also.
URANIUM…I’m bullish but the choices seem pretty limited. My top three investment-grade choices are Cameco first, then Cameco second, or my third pick would be Cameco. After that, you are speculating on small caps, or buying ETFS or funds comprised of Cameco and some small caps. At the moment, I am long Cameco and UEC.
LITHIUM…I am considering a long position in lithium. I have nothing to recommend at the moment, although I am strongly considering Galaxy, an Australian company. And I like Neometals, also an Australian, but it is difficult to get from my broker, who hates it when I want to buy obscure 50 cent companies on small foreign exchanges. If anybody’s got a great battery play, I am interested.
POTASH/FERTILIZER…very interested but they all seem pretty expensive. There has been consolidation but I have considered Agrium, Mosaic, and there is a German company whose name I forget at the moment (K&D? K&S?).
OIL AND GAS…I would like some very good conviction picks accompanied by strong reasons and decent research. This field is so big, we could get completely lost just tossing names around. I am somewhat worried about price weakness in the energy sector but feel that it is worthwhile to develop a point of view on a few companies. I have little experience although I made very good money in the past on XOM and CVX. Currently I would be interested in pipelines, LNG, or any other sector that someone knows something about. In natgas I like OGZPY.
SOLAR and WIND…really not too interested. The results depend too much on politics, the time frames seem too long. But I am not completely closed-minded on it if you have conviction on something.
COAL…same opinion as solar and wind, but the prices are low and depressed instead of hyped and high-flying. I am still stuck with some defaulted Arch Coal bonds that my financial advisor recommended. They went to ZERO. Now they are worth a Starbucks latte and a pastry. And no espresso shot in the latte, either.
AGRICULTURE…very interested. A large sector but really not too many choices if you rule out futures, like I do. I have a few obscure favorites, but no positions at present:
WHGPY (Chinese pork processor who bought Smithfield)
LAND (Gladstone Land, California farmland)
INCPY (Input Capital, a Canadian canola, streaming model).
Open to more conventional picks like ADM and DBA.
GOLD AND SILVER…my picks have been discussed at length previously. I follow these pretty closely. I am long royalty/streamers SAND, FNV, SLW, and OR; miners PVG, MAG; developers SA, CLASF, MRDCF, BALMF, KNTNF, and LXVMF; and I own PSLV and physical bullion. I swing trade big caps ABX and NEM.
****
DISCLOSURES. I am a retired executive and an amateur investor. I like both fundamental and technical analysis. I am a medium-term to long-term position player and prefer to discuss stock investment in that context. Please no minute-by-minute reports that oil is now 52.50 down 10 cents and the Iranians may suspend Ramadan next week so you are going long until the afternoon bell.
I am not an expert in any of the commodities discussed nor am I qualified to give advice.
Everyone makes mistakes and I make more than my share.Sometimes I change my mind.
When I post, I express my opinions and my positions. These are just that…they are my opinions and my positions. They are not advice or recommendations, which I remind you I am unqualified to make.
Opinions and positions are subject to change at any moment. That is quite unlike the pig-headed and foolish political convictions everybody carries around adamantly, and which change only rarely for unpredictable reasons that have nothing to do with logical thought or reasoned discussion.
Because of this, political developments can be introduced on this thread only when they have a clear bearing on the commodities or companies under discussion.
You are responsible for your decisions, and I am responsible for mine. Caveat emptor.
I would like to operate in a friendly, honest, and constructive atmosphere.
As thread moderator I reserve to myself the role of referee, censor, arbiter, and Grand Poobah, subject to the over-arching authority of Travis, who owns the site and who has on occasion exercised his right to ruthlessly censor and suppress my radical blatherings.
This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.
$NXXGF np – ThxGivin’ post http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2016/11/microblog-gold-and-silver-and-hard-asset-investmentsfall-2016/comment-page-4/#comment-4908669
and now: There’s a Reason Nexus Gold (NXXGF) Has Doubled in Less Than a Month http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/Theres-a-Reason-Nexus-Gold-NXXGF-Has-Doubled-in-Less-Than-a-Month/s/article/view/p/mid/7/id/2250/
Portfolio performance observations…last year I did OK, my overall investment return was approximately 15%; it was characterized by a few big gainers and a few large losers, with a lot of stuff in the middle.
But this MONTH I am up 25%, and the results are very interesting and more pronounced: I have some big, big winners, with the laggards and losers outnumbering the big winners.
Three stocks together have ALL of my dollar increase:
Ivanhoe Mines
Arch Therapeutics
Mariana Resources
The rest of the flotsam and jetsam is down slightly. I realize this is a function largely of my approach and my entries; but the point I am trying to make, is that with my investment approach, I must allow for the winners to be BIG winners.
So I am sort of a so-so average, home-run hitter. I hit a lot of grounders and I strike out, but enough home runs are winning the game for me. And that is what I have stated on my picks: I am looking for home run potential.
I am not recommending this approach to anyone. I am just being objective about my own results.
China…a case of institutionalized fake news ?
I want to touch on this idea..it is political and speculative, but has a direct bearing on the issue of our investments.
With recent focus on fake news, it occurred to me that it is entirely possible, likely even, that our impressions of the Chinese economy are wildly exaggerated and inaccurate. The Chinese government is more autocratic and manipulative than the US or Europe; they have more control over the media; and our alternatives for real news out of China are limited because, by and large, we don’t speak Chinese and the powers in Beijing aren’t going out of their way to allow their citizens to tell the world what is happening there.
Therefore it is completely reasonable to assume that all reported data from China is manipulated to a larger degree than we are used to, for political and economic purposes that are in the interest of the Chinese government, as they see it.
Before engaging in speculations about this, let us recap the big picture developments we can agree upon as factual:
1. Chinese state organizations have been on a years-long spree, buying US and other foreign assets. This is mostly with US dollars they get from us from our purchases of every manufactured flip-flop, frying pan, TV, vacuum cleaner, fleece pullover, auto part, flannel pajama, closet rod, and the other 53 aisles of Chinese goods at your local Wal-mart. And also the tools and hardware filling Home Depot.
2. Chinese individuals have also been trying to get their money out of China. Take a vacation in Vancouver or Paris like I did and see for yourself.
3. The Chinese government has been dumping US Treasuries and aggressively bringing more gold into Chinese control. [And by the way…when in your life have you heard so many opinions in US media about China’s opinions and warnings on US policies, as you have heard recently?? ]
4. The Chinese have worrisome bubbles, like we do, in real estate, bad debt, and their banking system. We have off-the-book banking liabilities in derivatives and other complicated or government-backed vehicles; the Chinese have enormous overhangs in construction and in their “shadow banking” system.
5. The Chinese have been aggressive, and successful, in their efforts to improve their position in the IMF and the various “G-” groups.
Now the Chinese have problems. And I think we can assume they are worse than they are letting on. (Anecdotally, I have not confirmed it, a Chinese official at an European economic conference in September was quoted as saying “a bubble had burst” that month in China.)
Meanwhile, the Russian economy collapsed last year, largely because of the US and European action; Europe ain’t so hot, either; and the US is pretty sick,
living mostly on debt, asset inflation, transfer payments, governmental expansion, and consumption in the medical, education, and media/entertainment industries.
So…what if the Chinese economy is a lot worse than we think ?
As far as currencies are concerned, China and Europe are committed to the printing press. The US was also; and while Trump and the Fed actions are unpredictable, events may overwhelm them, or the Fed may become irrelevant. The situation is very uncertain.
But overall, I think the situation tends towards the devaluation of ALL the fiat currencies, with the USD remaining relatively strong just because there is really no where else to go. I think real interest rates will rise, because
capital is, , in the real world, worth something.
In this scenario, I expect asset price inflation to be greater than “printing press” inflation; and in the end, real assets will have some value, whereas the fiat currencies will lose theirs. I am first to say, I could be wrong about this.
It is an ugly and chaotic scenario. Sluggish economies, rampant currency devaluations, big government and banking interventions galore, and desperate efforts by international and domestic interest groups to protect themselves and their interests.
Bottom line…still liking hard assets and real things.
***
Let me be first to say, I could be wrong about this. Harry Dent was wrong in 2016, but he may be right in 2017. Black or purple swans could appear, or ones with polka dots.
Or maybe the Mother of All Fake News Stories…a 21st century repeat of the HG Wells “War of the Worlds” broadcast. CNN announces, Aliens have Invaded and taken over.
New World Order arrives !
Timely news from AP on China speculation: [edited]
China faces political conflicts in moves to cut debt burden
10:07 PM ET, 01/24/2017 – Associated Press
BEIJING (AP) — Drowning in debt, metals trader Sinosteel Corp. got an unprecedented lifeline last month from the Chinese government — a multibillion-dollar debt-for-equity rescue that could be the first of many for struggling state-owned companies.
China’s economy is still growing relatively quickly, but a prolonged slowdown is raising fears that companies in many industries have borrowed and invested too much, too fast, posing a serious risk…
The government hailed the Sinosteel deal, in which state-owned banks agreed to accept shares in the company to repay half the 60 billion yuan ($9 billion) it owes, as a model for debt reduction. Analysts are more skeptical…
***
Chinese gov’t hails its own deal ! What rubbish.
Chinese economy “growing relatively quickly…” so quickly, a major steel company is going bankrupt !
More rubbish !
***
Now tell me. If the Chinese state owns these things, where is the free trade, and who could object to higher tariffs on Chinese steel ?
I speak Chinese, and generally I prefer not to care about what the Chinese government says. Maybe half of what they say is true, but the other half is false. Why bother to guess what is true and what is wrong?
I am beginning to have the same attitude towards the US government and the American mass media. And even worse, important news is ignored completely and hidden from us.
$IVPAF Ivanhoe Mines…Attention : Dunnydane, Left foot, and those on the fence about Ivanhoe asking: “Am I too late ?”
If there is a world-wide economic collapse and deflation, and there could be, Ivanhoe could go back down to 50 cents. If there is a violent overthrow of the DRC,
and Ivanhoe is nationalized, the stock value could go to 40 cents. And if this was accompanied by nationalization of the Platreefs project in South Africa, it could go
to zero.
My opinion is that barring a major world-wide financial and economic calamity affecting industrial demand for copper, or the doomsday political and nationalization scenarios, Ivanhoe still has vast upside. But these are real risks.
I have presented many arguments for this. I have stated, when Ivanhoe was less than $1.00, that it had the potential of MULTIPLES of its current price; and I still stand by that statement, even though the price is $3.00 instead of 60 or 80 cents.
You will be best served to follow up on the many postings here, and doing your own due diligence from links that have been posted. I especially suggest the Rick Rule interview with Robert Friedland on Sprott Media, which gives great insight and confidence concerning the intrinsic value of the company, and Friedland’s track record and character.
Do not have a stranger’s recommendation as the foundation for your investment.
You will buy at $ 3.25, the stock will have a bad week and go to $2.40, and you will not have the conviction needed to stay in it.
Today my three biggest gainers are Ivanhoe, Mariana Resources, and Arch Therapeutics. I have been underwater a few times on Ivanhoe. I have had temporary losses on Mariana Resources and I have even been in the red on Arch Therapeutics. Without my own conviction on these stocks, I would have panicked and sold out when the positions went against me. I came close a couple of times on all three.
No stock goes up in a straight line. If you do not have sufficient conviction, your emotions will get the better of you even on good positions. Without conviction, you will panic, get discouraged, and get shaken out.
Your conviction and position size should be such that when the stock drops, your reaction is quizzical and greedy, instead of pained and fearful.
“I can’t believe the stock is an even better buy, what are these people thinking ? I ought to buy more !”….instead of “Oh dear, I lost more money…what if I am wrong ? Maybe I should sell…”
HN
Great cautionary note.
My question for you is this. With out those events you enumerated, when are you thinking about taking some profits?
Hi Hedy, I’ve thought about it, but after I think about it, I leave it alone. Everything is working out on Ivanhoe, and I have trouble finding anything that I think is better. It took a a while to build the position and I can make a lot with it; so I leave it alone.
We all have different objectives. Suppose you have a very conservative investment portfolio and expectations or hopes of a 10% or 15% return, and you took a little Ivanhoe to add some juice. Then I would think taking some profits makes sense. Taking the profit fits in with your overall objective.
Or suppose you are a short-term trader; you may think it is wise to get out, because your style is short-term and there has been a dramatic spike.
My objectives are different. I want aggressive capital growth on the moderate amount I have in the market. Right now, even though there are risks, Ivanhoe is the very best reward-to-risk stock I can find. So I am very reluctant to reduce my position , when it is so early in the game, I still think the company is fundamentally undervalued, and it appears I am “correct” (in the black). So selling Ivanhoe early is inconsistent and defeats my own strategy.
If my analysis is being vindicated, why would I want to sell out early ?
On Ivanhoe, the events that will get me thinking about partial divestment are: (1) a full year operation at Kamoa/Kakula, or (2) a full transaction involving Kipushi and/or Platreefs, or (3) a wild and unsustainable spike in copper prices that sends Ivanhoes share prices
into orbit.
Totally understand. Just wanted your take……
What I am starting to do is to pick future EVENTS that will be the end game signal to consider divestiture and profit-taking. These are not stock price
targets per se. I will let the market say what the price is, when and if the events occur. As long as the company seems on track fundamentally, the event-trigger target helps me remember why I invested in the first place.
Some examples:
Arch Therapeutics: partnership/transaction announcement, AC5 brought to market, or market share achievement over 5% and growing.
Mariana Resources: a transaction or announcement of
mine construction. May hold through to production if the time frames are within reason.
Ivanhoe: one year operation of Kamoa/Kakula; transactions on Kipushi and/or Platreefs.
On the miners if there are really insane spikes on the underlying commodity, this might push profit-taking to the forefront.
So this a little different thinking than ” when market cap gets to 6 billion” I will consider profit taking.
It is somewhat different, but I don’t think an MC of 6 billion can be achieved without some of the events mentioned. The market cap number was a number based on sales potential, market cap, and market share of the hemostat market.
If Arch were to achieve a market cap of six billion without partnerships, without product in the market, and with zero market share, I would DEFINITELY consider profit taking. The market cap number as a target is just shorthand for my own ideas of what might happen.
One thing that could happen is that the potential of the company might be even better when the time comes around and the events occur.
For example, suppose a major partnership were to be announced, the cap hit a big number, but in the meantime a few dozen other applications and products were in the works. Or AC5 was selling like gangbusters and a regular dividend was announced. One might decide to just hold onto the stock indefinitely.
It is not absurd to hope that the annual dividend might be as much as we paid for the stock. We could be in a penny stock speculation that graduates to a blue chip income stock.
HN I thought your 6bill comment was in relation to Ivanhoe?
Ooops, sorry. But it so happens the $ 6 billion market cap is daydream target number for both Ivanhoe and Arch Therapeutics. And I think both have the potential to pay major dividends someday. I am not predicting that, but it is not out of the question.
They both have outrageous potential and I do not consider
$6 billion a stretch for either, although there is more risk with Arch, in my opinion.
Hedy…Ivanhoe market cap of $6 billion…I can think of several scenarios that would send the market cap of Ivanhoe north of $5 billion. None are certain but altogether it strikes me as likely that at least one of them, or a combination of them, will occur at some point. Some of the possibilities are:
1. Substantial increases in the prices of copper, zinc, or PGM metals.
2. Production or development news
at any of the properties.
3. A transaction involving new partners or a joint venture.
4. A spin-off of Ivanhoe stock creating a Friedland-led exploration/development corporation
5. A change in investor sentiment towards the commodity sector.
Frankly Ivanhoe could double with no fundamental news, it could occur strictly on the status quo fundamentals with a shift in investor sentiment.
6. Keep in mind that Ivanhoe might make a major sale and pass the proceeds directly to the shareholders a special dividend, or might institute a regular dividend when Kamoa production is underway and cash flow starts pouring in. And cash is going to pour into Ivanhoe in a torrent.
Long Ivanhoe.
HN
What is your sense of them getting bought out early or do they have any government cover on that?
hedy,
Buy some, jump off the cliff, be a devil…ha ha
SECRET- been in the stock since 0.72…
Just trying to get the full picture.
HN – Current view on Mariana? I have owned that one from 0.50.
Thanks.
hedy, excellent price point…
I do not think Ivanhoe will be bought out willingly, but a hostile takeover could occur. Friedland has been very shareholder-friendly and has earned the trust of investors.
What is more likely is that parts of the company assets will be sold off, or partnerships will be entered, to capitalize the assets for the shareholders.
Friedland himself has explicitly discussed this. He made an analogy, saying he had three promising children, but one of them might have to go to work so the others could go to college. Meaning, one of the assets might be sold off so the money was available to develop the other two.
Thanks hn. I have gains enough in $ATVI, $COST, $IPGP & $SKX to allow me to take a chance with a possibly volatile mining stock like $IVPAF. Not to mention my long exposure to A Certain Person’s recommendations of mining stocks. (He’s in the mining industry.)
Since I can’t add more funds to my IRA I have to do the economic analysis of what underperforming current holding/s should I sell to finance a purchase. Forces me to take a good hard look at what I’ve got, which is good.
Cheers, Penny
Penny, not sure if this is of use for your timings but the Platreef grave relocation hearing is the next Ivanhoe news that might have any bearing on the share price I would imagine?? The court order remains subject to finalization but Ivanplats will present evidence supporting continuation of the relocation program thus seeking to have this interim order set aside. The matter is set for 26 January 2017…..
HN, I really appreciate this page you set up and the time you take to respond and share info with us! Many thanks! Your suggestions are very much appreciated.
You are welcome; just trying to return the good I have gotten from the site. I got turned on to Ivanhoe by a link posted by another reader.
There is too much information out there for any one person to keep on top of it all. Everyone can help.
When I post publicly it forces me to be more careful and rigorous in my reasoning. I invite reasoned disagreement. If our ideas are sound, they will be capable of withstanding debate, discussion, and disagreement.
Trouble is, we can still be wrong and lose money, even if we win the debate.
Palladium getting smashed today! 🙁
Regards Ivanhoe hn can you say what this link means and is there anything relevant that we here are not aware of…..thanks.
http://portals.flexicadastre.com/drc/en/
On the Cadestre site, click continue on the centre and add Ivanhoe to the upper right hand box. Ivanhoe in the DRC is in blue.
It is a very cool link. It would be useful to verifying claims in the DRC because they give permit application, grant, and expiration dates. Also interesting because you can see how many permits are granted by company.
I saw that the Kamoa license is good for 30 years and that Ivanhoe has tons of different licenses for lots of properties. But I trust what I have seen from Ivanhoe as it is. So the link does nothing to change our opinions, although it does add some third party evidence as to the truth of the claims about Kamoa..
Seems maybe they have other projects being looked at in the area that are not yet announced due to various reasons. I can only see this as a positive, especially with RF’s track record of discovery. Of course this could all mean little or nothing, just pure speculating on my behalf. But fingers crossed!
It is really hard to imagine Friedland spending a lot of time on new projects. although he may be. I mean, the guy has already three projects worth couple of billion dollars to bring to the finish line, and he is also the CEO of CleanTeq.
I suppose he must do something with his money. Maybe he will create an exploration/development conglomerate. Who knows. I’d just like enough focus on Ivanhoe so that it becomes a big cap and enough on CleanTeq to have it be successful.
Also from the link provided on the mining in the DRC, Ivanhoe is the holder of many dozens of licenses there. So Friedland will surely have opportunities…it is just a question of priorities.
Look, the size of the Kamoa/Kakula project will require hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars, and the result will be a fantastic mine that produces for generations. Don’t want to get too distracted from this.
$UEC – Amir Adnani – CEO of Uranium Energy Corp and Chairman of GoldMining Inc. (formerly known as Brazil Resources) New Dawn for Nuclear Power, Curzio Research.
http://www.frankcurzio.com/new-dawn-nuclear-power/
no pos
My Greatest Investment Ever – Ivanhoe Mines
http://fifighter.com/precious-metals/precious-metals-updates/2017/01/my-greatest-investment-ever-ivanhoe-mines-142758-64-realized-gains/
Good read….not me, just came across it.
It CAN be done. An excellent read.
My average entry was about 18 cents higher, and my share count is considerably less. Note the difficulty of buying when the stock is hated.
The author claims average cost of 52 cents and he sold a bunch at $3.00.
Almost six times. The hard part is building a position early and taking the early volatility and self-doubt.
$URRE $UEC US House passes advanced nuclear act http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NP-US-House-passes-advanced-nuclear-act-25011702.html … ht https://twitter.com/ACInvestorBlog/status/824562864530878465
From Seeking Alpha – Ivanhoe Mines.
Ivanhoe Mines’ Latest Drill Results At Kamoa-Kakula
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4039643?source=ansh
$IVPAF…Thanks squirrel, great diagram of the deposit. Gotta laugh, though. The author says “it is no longer the obvious home run it was before.”
This is opposite my opinion. The home run potential is now out in the open.
It is more obvious now than ever. The potential was harder to embrace when copper was $ 2.05, the stock price was 65 cents, the commodity space was a graveyard, and there were no drill results on the Kakula deposit.
There are 9 drills turning at Kakula now, this will be not just be Africa’s biggest copper deposit but the World’s Largest Copper mine soon. Speaking of buts, the author is talking out of his…….IMHO of course….. (-:
$UEC – article below published this week by the Hill.com on how Rick Perry, US Energy Secretary Nominee, can reshape America’s energy policy. Perry was Texas Governor from 2000 to 2015 and during that period the UEC team worked closely with him as we transitioned UEC from explorer to producer in late 2010. He’s a strong supporter of nuclear power and very much on the same page as the policies and views of former Energy Secretary and UEC Chairman, Spencer Abraham.
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/energy-environment/315331-going-nuclear-perry-poised-to-lead-renewable-energy#bottom-story-socials
no pos
The world’s 10 largest copper mining projects of which Ivanhoe is in there….
http://www.mining.com/the-worlds-largest-copper-mining-projects/?utm_source=digest-en-mining-170125&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=digest
IVPAF – Long
A really interesting post. Thank you Secret.
My pleasure, some saying it will be the biggest allowing for the high grade at some point in the future….
FYI – Rio Tinto’s copper woes worsen as Jakarta halts export
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/rio-tintos-copper-woes-worsen-as-jakarta-halts-export/news-story/1098cd455ae3477697e85d5b6b019a3f
Crossing the Congo: ‘We were arrested, robbed by soldiers, and had an AK-47 pointed at our necks’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/africa/articles/crossing-the-congo-interview-with-the-author/
Long & Large Ivanhoe Mines……
hn could you give your observations on this, thanks.
Colorado Enters Into a Communications Agreement With Tahltan Central Government
http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/colorado-enters-into-a-communications-agreement-with-tahltan-central-government-tsx-venture-cxo-2191446.htm
Long CVE:CXO
The Canadian indigenous tribes must be accommodated. Apparently the Tahltan is the tribe that is living on land of interest to Colorado Resources.
This is always something that must be considered in US and Canadian projects. FYI, PVG and SA are in the clear on this as far as I can tell…PVG obviously, since they are about to go into production.
Noted – cheers!
Lithium Miner News For The Month Of January 2017 – by Matt Bohlsen at seeking alpo
Summary
Lithium spot and contract price news – Lithium carbonate spot prices unchanged in January, strong lithium carbonate pricing in Japan at 15,000/t.
Lithium market news – “Lithium demand forecast to rise 16% pa to 2025 – the fastest of any significant commodity over the past century.”.
Lithium miners news – What a month for Lithium Americas – securing not one, but two, great deals securing project financing and off-take equity partners.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4040100-lithium-miner-news-month-january-2017?app=1&uprof=46&isDirectRoadblock=true
X posted to gold assets
$KNTNF – K92 Drills Multiple High Grade Gold Intersections in Irumafimpa Area
K92 Mining Inc. (“K92”) (TSXV – KNT) is pleased to announce the latest results from the ongoing grade control drilling program at its high grade Kainantu Gold Mine. K92 is currently ramping up the Kainantu Gold Mine towards commercial production, with its longest continuous production run to date now commenced.
http://www.k92mining.com/2017/01/k92-drills-multiple-high-grade-gold-intersections-in-irumafimpa-area/
$KNTNF – long
Griffin, thanks so much for bringing this to our attention. It moves me from being on the fence about KNTNF, to being somewhat bullish…especially at 70 cents.
The drill cores are pretty good. They are not phenomenal. But in this case they are an extremely important confirmation of the
investment thesis, because there are no proven “2P” reserves at Kainantu.
If you remember, my only reservation about K92 has been the degree of confidence in the amount of gold on the property.
I considered K92 an exploration play on account of this and was getting itchy after the recent drop.
But with more proven gold in the ground, K92 rockets forward as an investment, because the MINE IS ALREADY BUILT AND OPERATING !
Usually an explorer hitting these results would be a cause for
some exceitement…but with an operating mine on the property it is a different situation.
I have been pruning gold stocks but will look more closely at the drill results.
I thought the results from the drill core looked good just didn’t know how good. I have a small position in K92, and want to add. You mentioned you were looking for battery stocks or battery material stocks. Battery stocks haven’t caught my attention yet. There was one battery stock recommended some months ago that would not loose its’ charge if left to sit for a year $OGES. At about the same time I got back into eCobalt solutions $ECSIF. the battery stock is down 50% and eCobalt is up 50% In this months article on lithium miners there is a spread of miners and explorers, it also has a reference to material used in making Lithium batteries. Copper, Nickel, and Manganese are also used in the batteries, I’m thinking of researching Nickel and Manganese when I find time.
I think batteries are a growth sector; but I do not like manufacturers unless they have a real edge or some protectable IP.
Batteries may be a growth sector but that doesn’t mean the manufacturers are going to be good stocks. The economics of manufacturing always seem to invite competitors and limit margins….prices are always going down, and there is a cheaper competitor around looking to jump you. And in batteries, you are going to be competing wityh Chinese factories…not something I find appetizing.
Clean TeQ Holdings Ltd to ply water purification methods in China’s Shanxi Province
http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/152135/clean-teq-holdings-ltd-to-ply-water-purification-methods-in-chinas-shanxi-province-69475.html
Up today, but just puts me back for now as got in high @ AUD 0.585
Long $CLQ (ASX)
http://www.aspecthuntley.com.au/asxdata/20160628/pdf/01752245.pdf
Great find, secret. I wasn’t even aware CleanteQ HAD a water purification technology. Will try to find out something about it. This could be the reason a big hitter like Friedland is CEO of a two-bit Aussie cobalt and scandium mine.
Attention: Ben and Cardinal enthusiasts !
Friedland is tight with the Chinese. He has been a great benefactor to the Chinese, and they trust him.
I made a bad entry on CleanTeq but I am almost back to break even and will hang onto it.
Further reading into Armstrong economics……shorting.
“Myth: Short-selling causes panic declines.
Throughout history, whenever the stock market crashes, the majority blame short positions for causing the panic. This has been the root cause of government investigations during every panic.
Reality: A short position in stocks is created by borrowing stock and then selling it on the market. Therefore, every short position actually results in a long position. The first is the long position from whom the short borrows; the second is the long position created by the person who bought the stock from the short seller. So at any given time, short positions are outnumbered 2:1 in share markets, assuming that 100% of all outstanding stock was originally borrowed.
In reality, short positions typically only account for a small percentage of total outstanding positions. Therefore, it is impossible for short positions to outnumber long positions. This only becomes possible in the instance of unlimited naked short selling, but that has never happened.
In futures, two players must balance every contract: one long and one short. Therefore, in commodities short positions can (at best) only match long positions. Even during the most bearish moments, short positions will never outnumber long positions.”
Uh………………..I think that they got rid of the uptick rule quite a while back. This enables big sellers to sell and sell stock which they don’t have and thus drive a stock down and down. Small volume stocks are more easily manipulated in this manner.
The existence of derivatives and index instruments, coupled with the unlimited financial abilities of the central banks, complicates the “short sale” discussion
beyond what we can resolve in a casual discussion.
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (TSE:IVN) had its price target raised by analysts at Canaccord Genuity from C$4.75 to C$6.00 on Tuesday. They now have a “speculative buy” rating on the stock. 43.9% upside from the previous close of $4.17. This rating was viewed 280 times.
No position in IVPAF because I’ve been waiting for a “dip”, so one might ask who is the real dip?
Regards,
Frank
Ivanhoe seems to be moving up in steps. The current price around $3 US is likely just a consolidation level…I do not think there will be wild swings below this, barring a copper price collapse.
Honestly, my suggestion is to just get started with a position. Make it small if you are worried, but there is really no reason to put it off. Do some more due diligence on it, it is really the best way to become more confident.
One impressive aspect is that Ivan’s price has moved up despite political unrest in the DRC. Bad news and uncertainty is already in the price.
Frank: IVPAF…Canaccord Genuity…My position in Ivanhoe was arrived at without any reference to anyone else’s analysis or forecasts. I have read or listened to many
publicly available articles, videos, and interviews and feel I know as much about the company as most commentators.
In my opinion the Canaccord estimate is very conservative. Professional analysts who have target prices under $5 are going to look very foolish someday; but on the other hand, if they publish a target of $10
they are sticking their necks out farther than necessary.
And the time frame of the estimate is a relevant factor. In a one year time frame,
I think the Canaccord target of $6 is OK; on a longer term basis, $10 is also reasonable.
So, HN, can you give us a timeline for Ivanhoe? Are they fully permitted to mine? Have they mills in place? When do they expect to start mineral productionh?
Hi Geneh, Just check their website, you will find everything there. As I recall:
The big mine is the Kamoa/Kakula copper deposit. Financing and permits are 100% and the mine plan is done; the main delay was they changed their minds on the initial size of the mine, and are likely going to build an 8 million ton-per-year processing facility instead of a 4 million tons. They are still drilling to get a grip on the size of the deposit. I don’t recall the exact timeline, check their site; but with the Chinese involved I would think it will be up and running within 2 years.
Similar situation on the zinc deposit. The shaft is alread built because the Belgians mined it for several decades and the Big Zinc deposit is adjacent to the
old mine. Friedland has stated that it would be a fairly quick and cheap re-start; so again I think 2 years is reasonable from the time it is decided to go into production.
I believe the PGM Platreefs project is in production or about to be, the last time I checked the website they had animation of the placement of the head lift. It is ready to go if not already producing.
Lithium…I am persuaded that the lithium space is worth a position and I intend to take a small position early next week.
Stay tuned.
Based on the link below, it seems that Millennial Lithium (ML/MLNLF) had some good drilling results recently.
http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aML-2438873&symbol=ML®ion=C