Gold and Silver and Hard Assets after Trump’s Inauguration…2017MAKE YOUR PORTFOLIO GREAT AGAIN !
This thread is a continuation of several threads posted previously by the author on gold and silver and hard asset investments. I am still a believer in hard assets. I also believe we are entering a period of inflation with continued dollar devaluation, higher interest rates, and a sluggish economy with chaotic dislocations. I believe there will be a lot of uncertainty and high volatility.
PURPOSE My intent is to find and discuss good mining and commodity ideas. Gold and silver remain a focus, but I want to achieve a more balanced approach still based on tangible commodities.
STEEL and IRON ORE…I believe Trump’s programs will benefit iron ore and steel. Stocks in this sector have been beaten down terribly but are rebounding. I am long VALE, a Brazilian company which is the world’s largest iron ore producer. I have been long Arcelor Mittal but do not have a position at the moment. Anybody know anything about cement and asphalt ?
COPPER, ZINC, PGM METALS…My very best conviction stock is Ivanhoe Mines IVPAF. I am completely comfortable with a large single position in IVPAF to cover these metals. However other investors may be uncomfortable with a small cap in sub-Saharan Africa. So I think it is beneficial to introduce other names even though I myself am not interested. Rio Tinto, Freeport-McMoran, Teck, Turquoise Hill, BHP and others come to mind. Travis, our host, is long Altius Minerals, and I have been also.
URANIUM…I’m bullish but the choices seem pretty limited. My top three investment-grade choices are Cameco first, then Cameco second, or my third pick would be Cameco. After that, you are speculating on small caps, or buying ETFS or funds comprised of Cameco and some small caps. At the moment, I am long Cameco and UEC.
LITHIUM…I am considering a long position in lithium. I have nothing to recommend at the moment, although I am strongly considering Galaxy, an Australian company. And I like Neometals, also an Australian, but it is difficult to get from my broker, who hates it when I want to buy obscure 50 cent companies on small foreign exchanges. If anybody’s got a great battery play, I am interested.
POTASH/FERTILIZER…very interested but they all seem pretty expensive. There has been consolidation but I have considered Agrium, Mosaic, and there is a German company whose name I forget at the moment (K&D? K&S?).
OIL AND GAS…I would like some very good conviction picks accompanied by strong reasons and decent research. This field is so big, we could get completely lost just tossing names around. I am somewhat worried about price weakness in the energy sector but feel that it is worthwhile to develop a point of view on a few companies. I have little experience although I made very good money in the past on XOM and CVX. Currently I would be interested in pipelines, LNG, or any other sector that someone knows something about. In natgas I like OGZPY.
SOLAR and WIND…really not too interested. The results depend too much on politics, the time frames seem too long. But I am not completely closed-minded on it if you have conviction on something.
COAL…same opinion as solar and wind, but the prices are low and depressed instead of hyped and high-flying. I am still stuck with some defaulted Arch Coal bonds that my financial advisor recommended. They went to ZERO. Now they are worth a Starbucks latte and a pastry. And no espresso shot in the latte, either.
AGRICULTURE…very interested. A large sector but really not too many choices if you rule out futures, like I do. I have a few obscure favorites, but no positions at present:
WHGPY (Chinese pork processor who bought Smithfield)
LAND (Gladstone Land, California farmland)
INCPY (Input Capital, a Canadian canola, streaming model).
Open to more conventional picks like ADM and DBA.
GOLD AND SILVER…my picks have been discussed at length previously. I follow these pretty closely. I am long royalty/streamers SAND, FNV, SLW, and OR; miners PVG, MAG; developers SA, CLASF, MRDCF, BALMF, KNTNF, and LXVMF; and I own PSLV and physical bullion. I swing trade big caps ABX and NEM.
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DISCLOSURES. I am a retired executive and an amateur investor. I like both fundamental and technical analysis. I am a medium-term to long-term position player and prefer to discuss stock investment in that context. Please no minute-by-minute reports that oil is now 52.50 down 10 cents and the Iranians may suspend Ramadan next week so you are going long until the afternoon bell.
I am not an expert in any of the commodities discussed nor am I qualified to give advice.
Everyone makes mistakes and I make more than my share.Sometimes I change my mind.
When I post, I express my opinions and my positions. These are just that…they are my opinions and my positions. They are not advice or recommendations, which I remind you I am unqualified to make.
Opinions and positions are subject to change at any moment. That is quite unlike the pig-headed and foolish political convictions everybody carries around adamantly, and which change only rarely for unpredictable reasons that have nothing to do with logical thought or reasoned discussion.
Because of this, political developments can be introduced on this thread only when they have a clear bearing on the commodities or companies under discussion.
You are responsible for your decisions, and I am responsible for mine. Caveat emptor.
I would like to operate in a friendly, honest, and constructive atmosphere.
As thread moderator I reserve to myself the role of referee, censor, arbiter, and Grand Poobah, subject to the over-arching authority of Travis, who owns the site and who has on occasion exercised his right to ruthlessly censor and suppress my radical blatherings.
This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.
FYI – Lithium Miner News For The Month Of May 2017
Summary
Lithium spot and contract price news – Lithium prices rose in May.
Lithium market news – Orocobre sees the “Lithium market to remain in deficit.”.
Lithium company news – Pilbara Minerals secures a 20 year off-take deal, Altura Mining close to achieving funding, and Bacanora Minerals secures a great off-take equity deal with Hanwa.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4077382-lithium-miner-news-month-may-2017?app=1&uprof=46&isDirectRoadblock=true
xpost
Long positions and the week’s ups and downs:
Ivanhoe…the stock is selling under $3.00. Would I ever like to load up at these prices, but I am happy with my other positions so will probably wait it out. Just a reminder, their number three project, 10% of the Platreefs multi-metallic in South Africa was sold to the Japanese for 300 million, which puts a putative value on it of 3 billion.
This is lesss than the entire Ivanhoe market cap, which I remind you also includes has the world’s richest zinc deposit and the world’s 5th largest and richest grade copper deposit…all filly funded. So I see this as a great bargain.
$CNRIF…Condor…something happeneing on this micro-cap silver speculation. My suspicion is that Sandstorm is going to move on it, like they did on Mariana. Take a look at the chart. This is a teeny tiny microcap.
$SAND…speaking of which, the stock is stumbling around while all the value is going into Mariana. Needless to say I am disappointed with the market reaction to the deal with respect to Sandstorm but I am not even thinking about selling. I also have a large position in Mariana. I am very confident the combination will be approved in June.
The current market cap of SAND is ab0ut 600 million and the Mariana is valued at 150 mil. My opinion is that Mariana alone is worth 750 million.
I think Sandstorm has tipped its hand on future strategy.
They will be acquiring equity in promising low cap explorers and devvelopers they can acquire cheaply. They will use stock when necessary to reduce cash risk. While this will result in short-term diltuion occasionally, I am not worrided about it because the underlying value of the company is going nowhere but up. This is what they did with Mariana. Condor, Erdene, and Kivalliq are likely targets.
$PVG…this is going to be a roller coaster. Based on the knowwledgeable comments of Richard, we are lkikely to see ambiguous or disappointing results on their first trials.
So I expect severe volatility, and we may not be sure for a few months whether Brucejack will meet, exceed, or fail in the projections. I am going to sit tight although major insider selling will be a bad sign.
Summing up..no major changes in outlook for me and no major changes in position; although I may move some money from Sandstorm to what I believe are likely acquisition targets for them.
I feel badly for those who are straight long Sandstorm, since much of the benefit stock-price wise goes to their target like it did with Mariana. This includes yours truly, I have an average entry over $4.00. But basically I am not going anywhere else except possibly to Sandstorm targets.
Thinking of cutting Galaxy and some other flotsam and jetsam. I think there are too many strong and relatively surer bets besides lithium, and my position is not big enough to move the meter. Like silver, for example.
Still liking Condor, Bear Creek, and MAG.
Originally, I took the conservative SAND only approach. But, after your presentation of the IVPAF facts, I took a position. Like you, I believe SAND holders’ patience will be nicely rewarded. AND, like you I am more convinced than ever that IVPAF will surprise us all on the upside.
$SAND Sandstorm Gold…because of my long-term enthusiasm and supoort for Sandstorm, I think it ias important to share my observations about them their strategy as revealed recently in various actions that have been announced that indicate the outline of a longer term strategy I believe they are undertaking.
If I am correct, the long term prospects for the company remain exceptional in my opinion; but there is likely to be some price disappointment along the way.
Here is how I interpret recent action. Sandstorm finds excellent properties for normal royalty and streaming deals. However, when they get really interested they take positions in the stock of the target companies. These positions are occassionally but not always revealed publicly, and are largely done, I suspect, to get the full attention of the target and persuade them of the seriousness of Sandstorm’s interest in a royalty or streaming deal.
The contents of Sandstorm’s holdings are not revealed publicly although they occasionally mention them. The holdings are substantial, likely in the 100 million dollar range; but SAND can go in and out of these holdings without public notice. They have done very wel with thse holdings, for example they were into Erdene around 20 cents, so they are good investors although the pprofits do not appear
in strams and roylaty income.
Here is the key point. In certain companies, Sandstorm has gone way beyond a position just to gain negotiating leverage for a streaming deal. When they get really interested in a big equity position in a taraget, they have gone up to 7 percent or so of the target company equity. They did this with Mariana.
They have done it with Condor. And I think they are considering such a move with Erdene.
Now I trust their due diligene and assessement of the geology. The trouble is that there is likely to be some stock dilution, as we have seen with the Mariana deal.
This is because Watson hates debt and will use a stock swap as a key part of the financing, as he did with Mariana. So as good as I think the Mariana deal is for Sandstorm long-term, and I do thinl it is excellent, short term the SAND stock takes a hit.
What this changes for me is that my aggresive position in Sandstorm is rreduced somewhat, and the money goes into what I consider their likely acquisition targets. As I have mentioned, I believe these are Condor, Erdene, and possibly Kivalliq, in addition to the annonced move on Mariana, which was pretty obvious because the top Sandstorm financial guy and the Turkish chairman both were named as directors of Mariana. If you read the releases carefulyyy about Condor, you will also get the impression that Sandstorm has very very strong interest in this company. Also Kivalliq, but that is a longer-term play.
Still very long in Sandstorm. Love their long-term strategy, they will be big players as long as they keep making good picks on the deposits.
$IVPAF…as far as surprises go, if Ivanhoe doesn’t hit $10 in three years, THAT would be the surprise to me..
I am pretty sure that the RickRule Interview today had Ivanhoe as their 3rd pick. I did not put out the $2000+ dollars to find out, but expect Stock Gumshoe to talk about it soon.
I am long IVN.TSE and bought more today.
Dave AKA MajorDave or GoldpannerDave in other forums
I just saw a little copy on Rule’s pitch and for sure Ivanhoe is one of the picks. On the others…I am not especially interested in uranium picks;
Africa Oil is a favorite of Katusa and the Lundins are involved, but I am not into the oil sector; and I do not know enoughabout Nevsun to express an opinion, though last time I checked it I was not terribly excited about it.
Rick Rule…cagey guy and I listen to him closely, but you have to be careful…he sees us as competitors unless we are clients. But I will wager $100 that he is big time into CLASF and CTEQF, he is just not promoting them them yet because is is is in the accumulation stage, which will be greatly accelerated from his subscription fees.
And frankly I could give a flying flafola whether he promotes CleanTeQ or not.
In markets you are playing in it is all about promotion. Why exactly do you think CTEQF is at $ .46? Why do you think Arch tripled? Exposure !! I know you believe promotion is a dirty word but you are disconnected from the real world. Have you studied how the Canadian market works? Australian markets? I have many friends in these markets.
If you have never made any money in the Australian market then you should consider the quality of your many friends you claim in that market.
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Over a year and a half ago I listened to Rule’s interview with Robert Friedland. RR was open about the money he had made with RF and did nothing to obscure or hide any facts about the promotional nature of the interview. But the content of the interview on Friedland’s side was sufficient to persuade. Bought at 80 cents. Soon to be $4.00.
Which stock are you talking about?
$IVPAF Ivanhoe Mines.
So here is the discussion of margins- I think there were several more times but here are two:
Cleveland Post
http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2016/02/special-commentary-turbulence-for-esperion/comment-page-6/#comment-4728153
Cleveland says:
March 10, 2016 at 10:06 am
$ARTH I have spent a fair amount of time trying to determine this so let me try and add some color.
So from the current company presentation:
“Arch is a small public company with a medical device pathway, relatively low capital requirements and potentially high margin novel products targeting large growing markets. ”
“Potentially high margin novel products.” So what does potential “high margin” mean per my estimates?
At scale I estimate $ 400-$500 typical sale per application (2cm by 2cm area) with my estimated calculated cost (based upon discussions with experts in field–these shall remain confidential) of anywhere from 5% to 20%. So profit margins of anywhere from 80 to 95%. The key word is “scale.” I believe the profit margins will tend to the high side.
Margins
Dr. KSS MD PhD
August 21, 2016 8:00 pm
Cleveland: I did some back of the napkin/palm of the hand arithmetic a while back and came up with eerily congruent numbers to yours just based on my own experience in medicine and what I think things cost and where, approximately, costs of peptide synthesis lie. So I am in full agreement.
Cleveland
August 21, 2016 7:46 pm
Dr. KSS Thank you for the color. I believe we are talking about a much different Arch now with the added 2016 intellectual property.
Regarding margins I posted the following a couple of times in the past
$ARTH I have spent a fair amount of time trying to determine this so let me try and add some color.
So from the current company presentation:
“Arch is a small public company with a medical device pathway, relatively low capital requirements and potentially high margin novel products targeting large growing markets. ”
“Potentially high margin novel products.” So what does potential “high margin” mean per my estimates?
At scale I estimate $ 400-$500 typical sale per application (2cm by 2cm area) with my estimated calculated cost (based upon discussions with several experts in the field–these shall remain confidential)of anywhere from 5% to 20%. So profit margins of anywhere from 80 to 95%. The key word is “scale.” I believe the profit margins will tend to the high side.
Cleveland..it’s water under the bridge for me, but not to split hairs, my question was not about margins it was about COST. Margins depend on the retail sale price, costs do not. I was interested in the actual costs of the peptides, which you implied that you had some inside information.
Still long ARTH, very respectful of your deeper than average knowledge about the company, and appreciative of your many contributbutions.
Cleveland, are you saying the reason Arch tripled is just because of promotion?
Actually if Rick Rule has established a major position in XYZ he does not view us as competition by as investors who will move the price up in XYZ so that he and his clients will benefit. He is a master at promotion which I witnessed for 30 years. The Canadian and Australian markets are all about promotion. Always been this way. Go spend some time in Vancouver or Calgary. Establish a Canadian brokerage account and deal with the Canadian brokers.
Perhaps he has convinced you he does not promote. If so he has done a great job .
He sees us retail buyers as competitors when he wants to buy at good prices and accumulate. He
has said this himself.
It is a mystery to me how you got the impression that I do not think Rule is a promoter, especially of his own book.
Would welcome anything specific you might have to say about CleanTeQ or Ivanhoe.
Kind regards
As I have stated I would love a elevator summary which I would consume and pass on to friends. I cannot get myself or friends to read all these forum posts. My friends would be buyers if it made sense.
Otherwise you are preaching to ten people plus or minus here.
So you are claiming that RF purchased 94 million in open market and he does not take founder shares?
Same with Rick Rule? They have no interest in getting you and I to bid prices up?
You have never been one to allow others to do real due diligence. That is where your name calling comes in on a regular basis. Sorry I just do not trust you based upon all the name calling.
I also have Canadian friends that I have known for 20 years that write Resource newsletters.
Cleveland, HN never name calls, let alone on a regular basis; he has no problem with others doing their own DD; if you have all these friends in the resource areas, then you can use their elevator summaries, and the 10 plus or minus that discuss these stocks with HN are not going to be able to actually promote anything.
You are the one who occasionally tends to rudeness and gets angry with people whose DD gives them a different perspective to you, and I have to wonder why on earth you suddenly flash out like that.
Cleveland, while I have read mainly HN’s posts on this thread, I have not found him to post what you accuse him of, other than once in response to an unpleasant attack from someone else. Is it not commonplace for those serious about proving their points, and not merely making accusations, to prove a modicum of substantiation?
Cleveland, I have stated clearly my reasons for believing in both Ivanhoe and CleanTeQ fregquently and clearly.
I do not care about the size of the readership of my posts. Nor do I feel any need to go out of my to summarize my due diligence, which has been clearly explained and is based on publicly available information.
If for some reason you do not agree with my opinions or findings, it would be nice to know why; but frankly, I could care less.
Cordially
Cleveland…What name calling ? What on earth are you talking about ?
How about something from you specifically helpful about the subject of this thread, which is devoted to finding good resource investments and speculations ?
Who cares if you have met Rick Rule or newsletter authors ? If this is so useful, how about some good recommendations that would benefit the readership ?
“Sorry I just do not trust you based upon all the name calling.” Easy solution. Don’t follow my thread.
Hn: Take no notice….empty vessels make the most noise. It’s futile and he’s fertive. He waits for a KSS quote then builds his story around it as if it’s new DD….there’s never substance.
Exactly, I read and thought, name calling, WTF laughable, none there. This is one if not the politest boards around. He comes on here giving it Large Charlie Potatoes out of nowhere, couldn’t make it up really,
Pity there isn’t an ignore button….
Frankly I was impressed by Cleveland’s efforts and conviction in biotech. I was hopeful that a similar effort would be forthcoming in the resource sector, but so far we nothing but generalizations about Aussie and Canadian markets, name dropping, disgust and cynicism with promoters, and ad hominem attacks that have no benefirt to anyone.
There is an ignore button. The author of the thread can notify Travis that a particular contributor should be barred from posting.
“So you are claiming that RF purchased 94 million in open market and he does not take founder shares? Same with Rick Rule? ”
Cleveland, I never said any such thing. You need to stop layering unjustified interpretations on plain statements.
HN: Cleveland has a history of twisting and misinterpreting what people say to suit his own position. Follow us and take plenty of no notice.
Attached is an interview with Rick Rule where he states his respect for Colorado Resources, and divulges that he is LONG and will continue to STAY LONG.
http://www.bnn.ca/video/rick-rule-discusses-colorado-resources~961333
Thanks hn, good to know as Long myself.
Think some drilling in a new area is going on, to do with the option they firmed up recently.
Huge area to find something and in very safe jurisdiction.
Rick Rule/CleanTeQ…I made the speculation that Rick Rule is long Colorado Resources and this was confirmed in the interview link posted above.
I have not been able to find any public evidence of Rick Rules or Sprott involvement in CleanTeQ. So this will have to remain an unsubsubstantiated surmise for the time being.
However, there is a Board connection and it is an interesting one. You may have heard of Marc Faber, a promnent hard-asset investment guy. He sits on a few of trhe subject companies we are discussing.
Quote from Marc Faber…..
“The federal government is sending each of us a $600 rebate. If we spend that money at Wal-Mart, the money goes to China. If we spend it on gasoline it goes to the Arabs. If we buy a computer it will go to India. If we purchase fruit and vegetables it will go to Mexico, Honduras and Guatemala. If we purchase a good car it will go to Germany. If we purchase useless crap it will go to Taiwan and none of it will help the American economy. The only way to keep that money here at home is to spend it on prostitutes and beer, since these are the only products still produced in US. I’ve been doing my part.”
Made me laugh!
Marc Faber…it would be even more laughable if there wasn’t so much truth in it.
The best humor must contain truth,,, and a bit of cruelty. 🙂
In a discussion with a couple of Sprott folks, they don’t seem to think the clq technology is a game changer and relative value based on their cobalt resource is not cheap. However that does not tell us whether or not Rule owns it personally.
Knowing his great respect and relationship with Friedland, certainly would not surprise me if he had a piece. They believe Ardea Resources ARL.AX is cheap based on their cobalt resource, and hopefully upcoming drill results will make it look even cheaper. They also have some gold prospects. Long ARL.AX.
Sure well maybe they would say that…..
10 Feb 2017 – Sprott Resource Corp. and Adriana Resources Inc. have completed their merger.
Just saying and the Chinese beg to differ, putting their money in also RF and SR keep buying shares.
Room for everyone on the cobalt front.
secretsquirrel, if you are responding to my post above regarding ardea and cleanteq, sorry I am not sure what point you are making. However, I would like to understand and would appreciate it if you could elaborate a bit. Thanks.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ivanhoe-capital-welcomes-support-for-a-new-era-of-cooperation-with-chinas-state-owned-enterprises-on-green-development-initiatives-in-mining-energy-storage-and-new-age-strategic-metals-2017-06-12-0160411
Read between the lines, thanks…
This is an example of where you must listen closely but think carefully. The Sprott folks you spoke to may believe what they said…that CLQ technology is not a game-changer…but in the context you give, they are saying this with respeect to COBALT. And they could be flat-out downplaying it because they want to accumulate more of it.
Even if the Sprott folks are correct that CleaniX is not a game changer with respect to cobalt, there is still the water purification business, the scandium/cobalt deposits at Syerston, and the pollution benefaction of the technology.
It is a mistake to judge CleanteQ solely on an opinion of the impact of the technology on cobalt extraction.
Not to challenge you , but just for color, what level folks were ytou speasking to at Sprott ?
“Rick Rule…cagey guy and I listen to him closely, but you have to be careful…he sees us as competitors unless we are clients.”
Rule gets in on the ground floor and buys founder shares for pennies. He is not buying shares in the open market. Fools like you and I do that. He earns his shares by promoting to others which drives the price up. This is all about promotion. Rule will do interviews and drop the name or presentations. Companies want him in on the ground floor. Even you said you listen to him closely and he is promoting whatever his positions are.
I have my PHD in this area by losing a ton of money and believing the lies they tell.
I said I listen closely. I did not say I follow him blindly, nor did I say I did not see him as a promoter. I just said I listen.
Rule says many things that I think have merit that have nothing to do with specific stocks. For example, his whole thesis on optionality is very interesting and I agree with it, although I differ on my picks. I do not put especially much weight on his public stock picks for the exact reasons you mention.
FYI – EV Company News For The Month Of May 2017
by Matt Bohlsen @ SA
Summary
Global EV sales – April global electric car sales grew 36% from last year.
EV market news – EV market share in California reaches 4.8%. China targets 2m EVs by 2020, and India aims for 100% EVs from 2030. Analysts upgrade their EV forecasts.
EV company news – BYD bounces back in China electric car sales, Elon Musk says he is “boring”, and BMW supply Dubai police with electric cars.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4078022-ev-company-news-month-may-2017?app=1&isDirectRoadblock=true&uprof=46&utoken=cd47a470185a20a91ae9389108d10f48
xpost
Read: Bullish for copper, cobalt, lithium and nickel.
Long-term bullish for structural materials that lighten and strengthen all transport vehicles. That means alu/scan alloys. Bullish all the usual suspects, save lithium which I consider wild and wooly and unpredictable in terms of picking big winners.
EV cars in Dubai…interesting, no shortage of oil over there but a gov’t agency went with EV cars. Sounds to me like somebody got paid off for something.
June 01, 2017 12:43 ET
Colorado Announces Graduation to Tier 1 of the TSX Venture Exchange
http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/colorado-announces-graduation-to-tier-1-of-the-tsx-venture-exchange-2219783.htm
$CLASF CXO…fits nicely into my hypothesis about
the big players in the BC Golden Triangle. Long term thinking, careful sequencing, everything in proper order to create a big gold district. Long $PVG, $CLASF, $SA.
As I mentioned I think we can expect some volatility on PVG based on Richard’s description of how initial results are likely to come from early Brucejack production.
Other than a potential permanent dud at PVG, which is possible and would be a personal financial bomb of hurtful proportions, I would expect a rather continuous if intermittent flow of great news from these companies.
Hi Et All: pls remember those who follow threads on a mobile or tablet…..TICKERS please; thank you ( I was on my cell, now I am on page 8 catching up and I can follow) but it is beneficial when tickers are used)
British Columbia just had a provincial election resulting in the Liberals who approve of (JOBS) mining, Site C dam and the trans pipeline, being ousted by the combination of the NDP & Green party coming together with 44 seats over Christy Clark’s Liberls at 43 seat win. Some may want to google this for info on how the landscape in BC will change and progress will be halted. The last time the NDP was in power in BC, it took years to recover. Not good news at all. Not good news at all. Albertans have experienced 2 years of the NDP and cannot wait to ‘get them out’…….Socialism at it’s worst!
For anyone who missed it….
Some of the names he mentioned include Seymour Schulich, Aldof, Lukas and Ian Lundin, Robert Friedland, Ross Beaty, Bob Quartermain and Clive Johnson.
The ‘serially successful’
The International Metal Writers Conference hears Rick Rule dissect the traits of mining titans
http://resourceclips.com/2017/06/02/the-%E2%80%98serially-successful%E2%80%99/
I’ve read about the Lundins, Friedland, Quartermain and Beatty.
Will check out Schlich, Aldof, and Johnson. Nolan Watson will eventually join and Pierre Lassonde is in there but they are not miners.
FYI – This morn newsletter from Eric Muschinski, Gold Investment Letter.
I’ve mentioned before that Eric maybe overly optimistic. This news letter say we maybe at the restart of the gold bull. We have had a couple of good days and if the gold market goes to $1300 and holds we have started. The are two links at the bottom for technically acute.
btw this is my first time using dropbox so if the links are bad please let me know
A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words
Things Could Get Interesting Fast
Good Morning,
I’ve attached images of two charts that should interest everybody involved in gold. Even if you aren’t a technical person, the charts are very simple and so clear that you will better understand where we sit in regards to the gold sector. These downtrend lines I’ve marked in blue are important and as we can see, every time gold bumped up against the “roof” since 2011’s top, it has rolled over and corrected. It is so important that even in the face of wild bullishness in gold last summer, I stressed in my mid year report that the new long term gold bull cycle will not be completely official until this downtrend breaks decisively. Well, we are testing it right now and this time it could burst.
One of the main reasons I think it may happen now is because of sentiment. So many people I talk to are on the sidelines or outright bearish on gold and particularly the mining stocks. One of the reasons it may not happen now is because of the weakness in the miners, which usually lead the metal in direction….usually. The odds are in the favor of gold keeping the trend within that channel you see on the 10 year chart, which would mean lower prices soon. But let’s see what happens here….we are actually just above the line as I type on Monday night.
If gold breaks out I think most people will not understand the gravity of the situation right away but the pros will and you will see sentiment shift immediately. The thing that excites me most is that this is the biggest flipping flagging pattern I’ve ever seen, going on 7 years now. The longer a flag or basing pattern, the more powerful the move ultimately is. That’s why we would close 2017 between $1,400-$1,500 an ounce, or higher, if it busts out now. Because the bull market after breaking this long consolidation will show some teeth….I’m talking about ferocity.
But, we aren’t there yet. Let’s watch and see what the market decides to do and adjust to it although I thought it important to bring this to everyone’s attention. Visually I hope it helps some of you understand where we are as it is quite clear that this is an important inflection point. Regardless of the near term movement in gold/silver, I strongly suggest readers use this lethargic atmosphere in the miners to add a couple of favorites. Both Southern Silver (SSV/SSVFF) and Timberline Resources (TLRS/TBR) are complete no brainers under 40 cents (I’m referring to SSV in Canadian and TLRS in US based quotes). I’ll get into more details on each when we see some news for new readers but most of you know that I’m in these two heavy and why I like them so much.
This is the type of market, where there is still uncertainty, where you will get the best prices. Sock shares of these two away and don’t worry about what they will do in the next 1-2-6 months. These both could be 10 baggers but you have to give them time and allow the gold bull to pop and blossom for awhile to obtain such returns. These two stocks should be completely gobbled up by GIL subscribers under their respective 40 cent price points…..dirt cheap! I’m extremely confident that we will all make a lot of money from these two stocks in time.
I am long SSV/TLRS
Gold Investment Letter
Sincerely,
Eric Muschinski
Gold Investment Letter
eric@phenom.ventures
Legal Disclaimer:
goldweeklyjune17.png
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$KNTNF (long)
Trading halt.
$KNTNF Again ? What now ? It better be better a three meter vein with 18 grams. The last trading halt looked like a publicity stunt about a decent drill hole. Don’t get me wrong, I’m long and staying put, but I hope the halt is over something IMPORTANT.
$KNTNF
K92 MINING INC. ANNOUNCES C$16,000,000 MARKETED OFFERING
K92 Mining Inc. (TSX.V:KNT) is pleased to announce that it has entered into an agreement with Clarus Securities Inc. as lead agent on behalf of a syndicate of agents (collectively, the “Agents”), whereby the Agents will raise up to C$16,000,000 (the “Offering”) through an Offering of up to 20,000,000 units of the Company (the “Units”) to be priced at C$0.80 per Unit. Each Unit is comprised of one common share in the capital of the Company (“Common Share“) and one Common Share purchase warrant (“Warrant“), with each Warrant entitling the holder to purchase one Common Share at an exercise price of $1.05 for 12 months following the completion of the Offering.
The proceeds raised from the Offering will be used by the Company for exploration and development of the Company’s mineral properties and for general corporate purposes.
The Offering is scheduled to close on or about June 21, 2017, and is subject to certain conditions including, but not limited to, the receipt of all necessary approvals of the TSX Venture Exchange. The securities to be issued under this Offering will be offered by way of private placement exemptions in all the provinces of Canada. The Units to be issued under this Offering will also be offered offshore, including in the United Kingdom pursuant to applicable exemptions and in the United States on a private placement basis pursuant to exemptions from the registration requirements of the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
The securities referred to in this news release have not been, nor will they be, registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and may not be offered or sold within the United States or to, or for the account or benefit of, U.S. persons absent U.S. registration or an applicable exemption from the U.S. registration requirements. This release does not constitute an offer for sale of, nor a solicitation for offers to buy, any securities in the United States. Any public offering of securities in the United States must be made by means of a prospectus containing detailed information about the issuer and its management, as well as financial statements.
***
Long $KNTNF
KNTNF (long). Aw shucks. I was hoping for something a little friendlier to the stock price. Thanks, Leslie, I’ve been wondering what the hold was for.
Me, too.
$KNTNF…I still like the project but the timing of the recent announcmens makes one pretty cynical about their practices. First a company- requested trading halt because of a pretty good but not earth-shaking assay from a new drill hole. Then another halt a week later with 10% dilution and warrants to insiders. What a coincidence.
The only positive spin is that they may truly believe that the new capital will result in a big gold find. It could happen. But I don;t like it too much because the original strategy was to fund exploration from current sales of gold from the existing mine.
Np. $KNTNF. An old German proverb from neighbors of my youth when translated was “rose petals can’t hide a privy”. I would rather camp with other, better prospects,,, like $SAND etc.
Gold nearing $1300…wonder what’s up and if we are finally going someplace. Lots of the gold stocks were up 5% or more today on the 1% gold move.
The combined stock prices of Sandsrtorm and Mariana went over $5 today…$3.80 on Sandstorm and near $1.30 on Mariana. Long both.
FYI – A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words
Things Could Get Interesting Fast
authors note: I’ve mentioned that I think Eric is overly optimistic but I do tend to agree with this newsletter. The last few days gold has made some bols moves. Erics supposition is that if gold breaks $1300 and holds the gold bull has restarted.
I’ve attached images of two charts that should interest everybody involved in gold. Even if you aren’t a technical person, the charts are very simple and so clear that you will better understand where we sit in regards to the gold sector. These downtrend lines I’ve marked in blue are important and as we can see, every time gold bumped up against the “roof” since 2011’s top, it has rolled over and corrected. It is so important that even in the face of wild bullishness in gold last summer, I stressed in my mid year report that the new long term gold bull cycle will not be completely official until this downtrend breaks decisively. Well, we are testing it right now and this time it could burst.
One of the main reasons I think it may happen now is because of sentiment. So many people I talk to are on the sidelines or outright bearish on gold and particularly the mining stocks. One of the reasons it may not happen now is because of the weakness in the miners, which usually lead the metal in direction….usually. The odds are in the favor of gold keeping the trend within that channel you see on the 10 year chart, which would mean lower prices soon. But let’s see what happens here….we are actually just above the line as I type on Monday night.
If gold breaks out I think most people will not understand the gravity of the situation right away but the pros will and you will see sentiment shift immediately. The thing that excites me most is that this is the biggest flipping flagging pattern I’ve ever seen, going on 7 years now. The longer a flag or basing pattern, the more powerful the move ultimately is. That’s why we would close 2017 between $1,400-$1,500 an ounce, or higher, if it busts out now. Because the bull market after breaking this long consolidation will show some teeth….I’m talking about ferocity.
But, we aren’t there yet. Let’s watch and see what the market decides to do and adjust to it although I thought it important to bring this to everyone’s attention. Visually I hope it helps some of you understand where we are as it is quite clear that this is an important inflection point. Regardless of the near term movement in gold/silver, I strongly suggest readers use this lethargic atmosphere in the miners to add a couple of favorites. Both Southern Silver (SSV/SSVFF) and Timberline Resources (TLRS/TBR) are complete no brainers under 40 cents (I’m referring to SSV in Canadian and TLRS in US based quotes). I’ll get into more details on each when we see some news for new readers but most of you know that I’m in these two heavy and why I like them so much.
This is the type of market, where there is still uncertainty, where you will get the best prices. Sock shares of these two away and don’t worry about what they will do in the next 1-2-6 months. These both could be 10 baggers but you have to give them time and allow the gold bull to pop and blossom for awhile to obtain such returns. These two stocks should be completely gobbled up by GIL subscribers under their respective 40 cent price points…..dirt cheap! I’m extremely confident that we will all make a lot of money from these two stocks in time.
I am long SSV/TLRS
Gold Investment Letter
Sincerely,
Eric Muschinski
Gold Investment Letter
eric@phenom.ventures
Legal Disclaimer:”deleted lg”
Gold Investment Letter
175 Varick St.
New York NY 10014
USA
goldweeklyjune17.png
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btw I triedposting earlier and the computer farted.
Well, the first one eventually showed up. Thanks for the info and the charts. Tonight overseas gold is slightly down, but it was last night also, so who knows?
$SAND…STRICTLY SPECULATION…in the recent announcement about the proposed Sandstorm/Mariana combination, after which Sandstorm will own 30% of the Hot Maden property and which deal which I believe will be approved in a few weeks at most, Sandstorm made two interesting statements:
1. At some unspecified point in the future, Sandstorm intends to convert their 30% equity stake in the Hot Maden property to a royalty/stream…to somebody.
2. The exploration and development projects held by Mariana (and possibly others, although this was not made explicit) will be spun off into a different company
(the “Spinco” ). It is unclear if any of Sandstorm’s other numerous exploration assets will be included, besides the properties held by Mariana. Eric Roth of Mariana will be the titular lead of this operartion.
Here is my main speculation: Sandstorm has a streaming/royalty deal already in place with the most obvious partner: that is Lidya, who controls 70% of the Hot Maden property. It is likely a deal that has adequate parachute and contingiency arranagements, it is not necessarily a done deal, but I bet the outline of a deal has been hammered out. Think about it: Here is Sandstorm about to acquire 30% of the project, which is proceeding apace; and the chief executive of Lidya and the chief CFO of Sandsrom are already on the board of Mariana. They are in contact.
What do you think they are talking about ?
‘
Of course Sandstorm could auction off their 30% interest to another bidder who might pay more than Lidya, And maybe Lidya is not interested on terms that are staisfactory to Sandstorm. But my guess is that a deal will be announced this year after the Mariana/Sandstorrm combination is approved, and I think the odds-on favoritte will be Lidya Madencilik. We already know they believe in the deposit because they are drilling like mad and making all reasonable efforts to get a mine built there, so they more than anyone else are fully aware of the potential value of the deposit and are in a very strong position politically, financially, and locally to accomplish the bazillion things that need to be accomplished for a real mine to be built in Turkey. And with a streaming/royalty deal with them, Sandstorm can get off the hook for the cash needed to build the mine.
$IVN
June up date with new photos and progress reports….
https://www.ivanhoemines.com/site/assets/files/2800/ivanhoe_mines_progress_gallery_june_2017.pdf
$ERDCF…Erdene Resource Developent…drill news
Marketwired
8:47 AM (8 minutes ago)
to me
Erdene Resource Development Corporation
June 8, 2017
Erdene Expands Mineralization at Bayan Khundii With 108 Metres of 2.8 g/t Gold in Step-Out Hole North of Midfield Zone and 10 Metres of 12.8 g/t Gold in Step-Out Hole East of Striker Zone
HALIFAX, NOVA SCOTIA–(Marketwired – June 8, 2017) –
Note to editors: There are two maps and one image associated with this press release.
Erdene Resource Development Corp. (TSX:ERD) (“Erdene” or “Company”) is pleased to provide additional assay results from the Company’s on-going 2017 drill program at its 100% owned Bayan Khundii Gold Project (“Bayan Khundii”) in southwest Mongolia where two drill rigs are currently operational.
Highlights (see attached figures for reference)
New zone discovered under cover north of Midfield Zone;
Hole BKD-110, one of four previously announced step-out holes where visible gold was observed, and located 60 metres north of Midfield, returns 108 metres of 2.8 g/t gold, including 20 metres of 7.2 g/t gold
Hole BKD-111, where no visible gold was observed in drill core, and located 50 metres north of Midfield and 40 metres southeast of BKD-110, returns 55 metres of 2.9 g/t gold, including 25 metres of 5.3 g/t gold
Results pending for two step-out holes located 130 metres and 200 metres north of Midfield (BKD-154 and BKD-140) where visible gold has been observed in drill core
Drilling in the Northeast Zone, 500 metres northeast of Midfield, returns 14 metres of 0.75 g/t gold from surface (including 2 metres of 4.4 g/t gold) and 21 metres of 0.72 g/t gold at 65 metres depth in hole BKD-122
Step-out hole BKD-118, the last of the four holes where visible gold was observed and located 90 metres east of Striker Zone, returns 10 metres of 12.8 g/t gold, opening up a large un-tested area east of Striker for additional exploration
Drilling extends the Striker down-dip to the southwest with 20 metres of 2.6 g/t gold from 90 to 110 metres (BKD-129)
Drill results to continue throughout Q3-2017
****
They are finding good stuff. I don’t think open pit mining will have a lot of protests in the middle of the Gobi Desert.
Good news then as this my 4th holding out of the 4 “mining” stocks that I now own.
As I got in early very pleased with the up side so far. Wish I’d bought more after my initial buy, as only got a part fill second time round…..
Long C$ERD
$ERD $ERDCF…just a reminder of what I think are the critical points. Speculations mostly but with good odds, in my opinion.
1. They are finding good stuff but I think there may be something really big there that hey have not found yet. What they are finding seems decnt enough for open pit, but a really rich find will put a different cast on things. They are geographically in a gold zone that is promising.
2. Sandstorm has a big position in them. Sandstorm has geologists and experts who study these things.
3. In addition to the gold field priority, Erdene has a large exploration deal with Teck Resources. Another way to win… essentially Teck has farmed out their exploration to ERDCF and
they are not dummies. If they find non-PM resources that are valuable, they will have an advantage shipping to China becasue they are next door.
4. Erdene seems very tied in with local Mongolian types based on the names of their board members and major employees.
In passing, the stock has been behaving very well…very srtrong recently. I have speculated that Erdene may even be an acquisition target for $SAND and have seen nothing that seriously debunks this, on the contrary $SAND’s recent activity with Mariana adds weight to the idea.
The problem as ususal is the time frame that might be required for a really good discovery…and of course a really good one might not occur at all. These uncertainties are mostly unavoidable in these miners and developers. On top of that, I would think Sandstorm will want to get the Mariana deal done and digested before they go for another big deal. So patience is required.
I think the upside is very high. Take a look at the market cap for Erdene, and let your imagination run a little bit.
As I said, when the positions go bad they are always too large, and
when the positions are good they are always too small.
Well, I have a big position in SAND, and although I don’t care for some of their foreign holdings where the governments may not be trustworthy, I trust this management and believe they have the right skill set and careful, debt avoiding, style that will help them build this into a large company.
I also appreciate the company here, success or no, and you are one of the people I’ve come to respect and appreciate, HN.
Agree and double agree. Some people click…others just cluck
Thanks, Sharon. I have the same attitude…we want to win, but win or lose it’s great having other eyes and ears out there with the same objectives.
On Sandstorm, they are just steadily building income ,
but the income is in precious metals and therefore subject to the day-to-day conversions of the currencies and metal prices. Long term I just think the currency value of their income stream is going to go through the roof. We might even get a gold dividend someday.
Hn: beware Mongolia. Recent news…new leading presidential hopeful saying he wants more control over mining companies.
Alan, share your concern and it does cast a shadow on this investment.
No issue with anyone who is skittish about Mongolia, DRC, or Turkey.
Mongolia worries me the least because you also have strong Russian and Chinese influence to modify radical political rhetoric, and mining is a gigantic part of the GNP of Mongolia.
Much more concerned about Turkey. Very anxious for Sandstorm to get done whatever it is they iintend to do there,
which includes reduction of political risk.
Also it depends on your entry. I am in Erdene at 26 cents so I can stand a little political grandstanding, but it is different if you are coming in now around 90 cents. Same with Mariana. My entries were really good
and I own more shares of Mariana than I do of Sandstorm. If you are in Mariana at 50 or 60 cents and you are about to get 37 cents plus a quarter share of Sandstorm, you feel a little better waiting
no matter what shenanigans Erdogan might pull in two or three weeks. But if someone is nervous entering now at $1.30 I can understand it for sure.
HN, Just a note of appreciation for all you do. I don’t get the unfounded opposition without any factual basis…
Here, here. Thanks for all that you do HN. Not sure why someone would come on and try to pollute an otherwise civil thread
Thanks guys, and I will be the first to admit that I have and will likely continue to make mistakes.
As far as Cleveland is concerned, he is obviously a smart guy and I do not hold grudges; my guess his that his past experiences have just severely poisoned his outlook…by his own admission he has lost a lot of dough in the sector. And anyway it’s good to have some cynicism although I think he is a little overboard that way.
For what it’s worth,
Royal Bank of Canada Increases Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVN) Price Target to C$5.50
https://baseballnewssource.com/markets/royal-bank-of-canada-increases-ivanhoe-mines-ltd-ivn-price-target-to-c5-50/951637.html
C$IVN
Appreciation picks…last year I challenged my broker to have his entire research department make 5 picks and stack them up against mine, several of which they whould not purchase for my account because they were not big exchange tickers and they woill not but low-level OTC stocks for IRA accounts.
I just challenged Cleveland to a similar friendly competition using his broker friends. Anyway here are my top five Fearless Appreciation Picks whether Cleveland responds or not.
All carry the usual risks of miners, but I am long all. Chief risk is noted on each and I feel the bets are better if the time frame is extended beyond January 2018 for another year.
CTEQF…slow uptake and market recognition. 47 cents today.
IVPAF…it’s gonna go, the question is how high. C’mon now. The world’s highset grade large copper deposit that will be prioducing for 100 years……the world’s richest zinc deposit..and a platinum-rich polymetallic deposit bigger than the Merensky Reef…for under 3 billion market cap ? You’ve got to be kidding.
CNRIF…predict a great discovery and the market cap is so small the appreciation will be in multiples. Sandstorm is involved. This is a microcap
with a polymetallic vein a kilomer long lying exposed on the surface.
BCEKF…will do nothing unless silver moves. But if it does, you have a silver
PEA with negative costs per ounce. NPV goes up 120 million for every $1 increase in silver prices and the market cap is of the company is only 200 million. So if silver goes to $20 there should be a double.
[NB: CNRIF and BCEKF are both in Peru]
SAND…well, the Turkish thing could be a problem and gold prices may not change much. But I am expecting a double without anything crazy happening.
30% of Hot Maden doubles the market cap of the comapany, and they are getting it for $50 million and stock.
Got anything better ? I’m all ears.
Fearless Five…ironically I am down in SAND, average entry for me was $4.40, though I have cashed out some at a profit and I have a large position in Mariana, which throws the whole thing into the black nocely. I am also down on CTEQF, average entry was 66 cents and it is now 47. Not really worried about it. Want more, in fact.
BCEKF is even, I am way up in Ivan, and CNRIF is a new buy made two weeks ago at 9 cents, and closed today at 12 cents.
SAND, CTEQF, and IVPAF I consider investments. CNRIF and BCEKF are really speculations…BCEKF on silver prices, and CNRIF on mineral discovery.
HN, do you prefer BCEKF to MAG for silver?
As an investment I prefer MAG because they are for sure going into production within a year or so, and there is no deposit risk, on the contrary there is dramatic discovery potential upside over and above a known rich deposit. Plus it will be operated by Fresnillo, one of the best operators in Mexico. MAG is like a landlord, they owned property smack in the path of a major deposit being mined by Fresnillo and did a 56/44 deal with Fresnillo. So for a “safe” silver play I prefer MAG.
But as a speculation that could soar to many times existing market cap, BCEKF has higher upside… but much more risk, natch. There is no mill, there is no deal, no financing….just a great depsoit, and a PEA with a couple of hundred million 2P reserves. But it is years from production.
On a casual bet for big appreciation I went with BCEKF although in my portfolio MAG has a larger position. Both will do great when and if silver goes up; with new discovery MAG might surprise big-time. .
But as a percentage gainer, I have trouble imagining MAG going up four or five times; but I can easily envision that type of gain for BCEKF, because for every dollar increase in silver, the value of BCEKF’s NPV goes up over $100 million. So for the purposes of percentage gain on a friendly wager I rolled the dice with small-cap BCEKF over MAG.
Thanks, HN.
Fearless Five…I said I challenged my broker, but in fact it was an established financial consultant working for a well-known national financial investment sevices firm. The same guys who put me into coal bonds that went to zero and wouldn’t buy Ivanhoe because it was too risky. I told him to get all his hotshot analyst types and give me their best picks. I crushed them with MRLDF and Ivan.
HN.. watch out, they’ll be offering you a job before too long!! Recently sold $IVPAF for a tidy profit to invest elsewhere.. might be coming back to it very soon given your write up. Long $CTEQF.
Ivan…in my opinion $3 is a pretty good place to go back in if you are not long on Ivan. My unqualified and unsolicited recommendation is to just get long and don’t worry about it.
This is going to be home run. I am not looking for a single or a double , nor will I be satisfied with one. I have a big position and I am going for the fences on this one.
Hn said – My unqualified and unsolicited recommendation is to just get long and don’t worry about it.
Fully agree with that, these pennies won’t really matter eventually. The very recent rise is mostly due to figures from China being positive and reflective on copper. Any news relating specificially to IVN of which we are waiting on could make it jump higher of course towards the 5 mark again…..and beyond,
Always hard to read, but just my opinion……
Long/large, staying Long, not trading as not my thing.
There have been times on all my biggest gainers when I have been in the red. You need to have enough justified conviction not to get shaken out (unless you are a trader).
I am down right now on CTEQF and SAND, if you exclude my Mariana holdings. But I see no reason to sell and plenty of reasons to buy more. When I see Chinese insider selling on CTEQF or Nolan Watson or David Awram dumping SAND, I’ll worry about it. But not until then.
Curmudgeon on the Cuyahoga…I recently challenged contributor Cleveland to submit five resource stock picks that he thinks would be of benefit to the readership. He claims to have Knowledgeable Friends in High Places, newsletter writers and even Rick Rule; and I encouraged he consult with any and all of them, and make a positive contribution to the thread.
Unfortunately, I do not believe he will rise to the challenge. He is very busy, you know. So my guess is he will shut up, instead of put up.
Anyway…I don’t dish it out, unless I can take it myself. Here is what we know about
Cleveland from his own admission and postings:
1. He has a self-proclaimed PhD” in losing money in the resource sector. He brags about it, as though this qualifies him for something. Instead of blaming himself or his own decisions, he prefers to blame crooked promoters and stock exchange operators in Australia and Canada. Anything but his own judgment and decsion-making. He believes more in promotion than geology for making his picks. He admits to never having made a dime in the Australian stock market. Not his fault, obviously…the Aussies are all crooks.
2. He has not made one positive resource recommendation, while expressing distrust of me, my motives, the stock markets, and several of the most respected and successful resource investors in the world.
3. He persistently jumps to unjustified interpretations about statements made in plain English.
4. He rudely avoids answering simple questions and tends to go into hibernation like a brown bear when he is put on the spot.
Anyway I giuve him credit for the contributions he has made on other threads.
But on this thread, his contribution is so far worth less than zero.
FYI – A Brief Look At The Zinc Miners With A Zinc Deficit Looming
authors note: This is an old article republished this morn. I don’t remember seeing it previously.
Summary
A zinc deficit is looming with zinc LME inventory levels at 5 year lows.
Global top ten zinc producers.
Global zinc mines comparison by grade.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4080751-brief-look-zinc-miners-zinc-deficit-looming?app=1&uprof=46&isDirectRoadblock=true
Behre Dolbear Weekly Newsletter
(long posting – I’d send just a link if I could. Didn’t include the commodity price graphs):
06/12/17 WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
HEADLINES
Glencore’s Coal Future Burns Bright
Gold in Pounds Jumps After U.K. Election; Palladium Surges
Gold falls on dollar strength amid UK vote uncertainty
Anglo American’s New Chairman Has a History of Leading Takeovers
Turmoil at No. 2 Copper Mine Deepens as Freeport Fires Thousands
South Africa’s Sibanye says 178 illegal miners now arrested at strike-hit Cooke mine
Inflation is a key concern’: Vault building booms as gold lures investors in turbulent world
South Africa, mining code: “We expect to see companies take aggressive legal action if this is put into question”
Greece to take Eldorado Gold to international court over project
Mexico owes Canada miners over $360 million, led by Goldcorp: documents
Robot Ghost Ships to Extend Miner’s Technology Drive to Seas
TOP NEWS
Glencore’s Coal Future Burns Bright
David Fickling, Bloomberg, 12 June 2017
Is Glencore Plc’s last-minute bid for Rio Tinto Group’s Australian thermal coal assets about quantity, or quality? It’s a bit of both.With a tenement footprint that’s more or less surrounded by Glencore’s own mines, Rio Tinto’s Hunter Valley pits have long been an obvious target for the trader.In volume terms, the $2.55 billion offer looks like the sort of deal that typically went down a decade ago, when the thermal coal used in power stations was a hot commodity and the likes of Rio Tinto and Anglo American Plc were looking to add assets, rather than exit ones still on their books.
Glencore is already by far the dominant coal producer supplying the Port of Newcastle
Glencore is by far the biggest coal miner in the Hunter Valley, the region north of Sydney that supplies the world’s biggest coal export harbor at Newcastle. But its mines are rapidly depleting, and will run out in about a decade at current production rates. Add Rio Tinto’s vast resource base and lower output pace, and you could comfortably extend that deadline into the mid-2030s or beyond.
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-06-12/glencore-s-coal-future-burns-bright
Gold in Pounds Jumps After U.K. Election; Palladium Surges
Eddie Van Der Walt Bloomberg, 09 June 2017
There’s near-term support for gold in dollars, Mitsubishi says
Palladium extends rally, surging 7.9% to highest since 2001
The U.K.’s shock election result sent gold rallying, but only for British investors. In the rest of the world, prices barely moved. Palladium surged more almost 8 percent to its highest since 2001.
Gold priced in sterling rose as much as 2.2 percent to 1,007.52 pounds an ounce, a seven-week high. The move was driven by the pound, which sank after Prime Minister Theresa May failed to win an overall majority.
In dollars, gold retreated 0.3 percent to $1,274.07 an ounce as the dollar strengthened. Bullion is set for the first weekly loss in a month, sliding 0.4 percent.
“The political situation is anything but strong and stable,” said Jonathan Butler, a precious metals strategist at Mitsubishi Corp. in London. “There is quite a bit of potential for support for gold, certainly in sterling and possibly also in dollars, in the near term.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-09/gold-in-pounds-climbs-to-seven-week-high-on-hung-parliament-fear
Gold falls on dollar strength amid UK vote uncertainty
Vijaykumar Vedala and Koustav Samanta, 09 June 2017
Gold heading for first weekly fall in five
Palladium hits highest since September 2014
BENGALURU, June 9 Gold fell for a third day on Friday as the dollar firmed after the UK national election left no single party with a claim to power though most investors seemed to shrug off the uncertainty. With the majority of seats counted, incumbent Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party had no way to win an outright majority in parliament. She had called the election to gain a stronger mandate before launching into arduous divorce talks with the European Union. “The poll verdict could create mild risk aversion which should be mildly supportive for gold; but depends on what sort of negotiations take place between the EU and UK (over Brexit),” NAB analyst John Sharma said. “For now, looks like the market has taken this in its stride.” Spot gold was down 0.4 percent at $1,273.81 per ounce, as of 0816 GMT. The yellow metal has fallen 0.4 percent for the week, and is poised for its first weekly drop in five.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/global-precious-idUKL3N1J615Z
Anglo American’s New Chairman Has a History of Leading Takeovers
Thomas Biesheuvel Bloomberg, 07 June 2017
Former ARM and Rexam chairman will take position in November
Chambers joins as miner seeks to continue recovery from rout
The century-old mining giant Anglo American Plc named Stuart Chambers as its new chairman less than a year after he steered U.K. chipmaker ARM Holdings Plc through a $32 billion takeover.
Chambers, a former chairman at ARM and Rexam Plc, will join Anglo’s board in September and take over the post in November, the company said in a statement Wednesday. The 61-year-old is replacing John Parker, who said he was standing down earlier this year.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-07/anglo-appoints-chambers-to-replace-outgoing-chairman-parker
Turmoil at No. 2 Copper Mine Deepens as Freeport Fires Thousands
Fitri Wulandari Bloomberg, 07 June 2017
Indonesian unit of miner fires 3,000 workers at Grasberg pit
Shipments unaffected by lay-offs; strike ongoing at mine
Turmoil at the world’s second-biggest copper mine intensified on Wednesday as Freeport-McMoRan Inc.’s Indonesia unit said it had fired 3,000 workers amid a strike that has lasted more than five weeks and cut production at the pit.
Freeport Indonesia said the workers at the giant Grasberg mine failed to return after being asked five times and it now considers them to have resigned, spokesman Riza Pratama told reporters in Jakarta on Wednesday. There are about 30,000 people at the mine, including 11,000 direct employees. Shipments of concentrate aren’t affected, though output’s not at an “optimum level” because of the ongoing strike, Pratama said, without elaborating.
Eric Kinneberg, a spokesman at Freeport’s head office in Phoenix, said Wednesday the company had no additional comment beyond a statement made on May 25. At that time, Freeport said roughly 4,000 workers, including a limited number of contractors, had not reported to work and were deemed to have resigned.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-07/freeport-indonesia-fires-3-000-copper-workers-as-strike-drags-on
South Africa’s Sibanye says 178 illegal miners now arrested at strike-hit Cooke mine
Ed Stoddard, Reuters, 12 June 2017
South Africa’s Sibanye Gold said on Monday that 178 illegal miners have now been arrested at its Cooke operations since the start of a violent wildcat strike last Tuesday.
A company source, who declined to be identified because he is not authorised to speak on the record, also said the strike was continuing. The strike was triggered by worker resentment at a company drive to root out illegal miners, who pilfer gold from its shafts after gaining access by employee collusion.
The illegal miners arrested have been forced to come to the surface because of the strike, which has emptied the shafts of employees, thereby starving them of their sources of food and water underground – an inadvertent consequence of the stoppage.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-sibanye-gold-strike-strike-idUKKBN1930LW
COMMODITIES
Inflation is a key concern’: Vault building booms as gold lures investors in turbulent world
Eddie Van Der Walt and Thomas Seal, Bloomberg News, 07 June 2017
From safety-deposit boxes in leafy west London to high-security facilities housing gold and silver in Frankfurt, companies that store valuables are expanding to meet demand.
A rush into haven assets that began during the financial crisis is getting a new lease on life from an upsurge in populist politics and a quickening of inflation. Two firms say they’re planning to open vaults in Europe capable of holding more than 100 million euros in gold, offering customers lower costs than exchange-traded products and protection from rising prices.
“Inflation is a key concern for many of our clients,” said Ross Norman, chief executive officer of bullion dealer Sharps Pixley Ltd., which operates a gold vault within walking distance of Buckingham Palace. “A safe-haven asset isn’t just about what you buy–it’s also about where you keep it.”
http://business.financialpost.com/news/mining/inflation-is-a-key-concern-vault-building-booms-as-gold-lures-investors-in-turbulent-world
LEGAL AND REGULATORY
“We expect to see companies take aggressive legal action if this is put into question”
Mining Journal, 09 June 2017
Those with South Africa interests are awaiting publication of the country’s new mining charter with trepidation after a number of recent articles that indicated less than favourable changes were afoot.
Having released a draft back in April 2016, there has been lots of talk about what the latest iteration of the legislation will look like. Recent commentary from a May 24 South Africa cabinet meeting implied the charter has been approved by government for publication and is due for gazetting in the near future.
Among the mooted changes to legislation is an increase in the black economic empowerment (BEE) participation in all South Africa mines – from 26% to 30% – a ‘strategic’ designation for certain minerals; which could potentially cut mine margins; and increased procurement requirements for miners from BEE partners.
http://www.mining-journal.com/world/africa/we-expect-to-see-companies-take-aggressive-legal-action-if-this-is-put-into-question/
Greece to take Eldorado Gold to international court over project
Cecilia Jamasmie
Eldorado Gold (TSX:ELD)(NYSE:EGO) may have to face Greek officials in an international court as the government of that country said is ready to seek arbitration to settle its differences with the Canadian miner.
In a statement (in Greek) posted on the Ministry of Energy and Environment’s website Thursday, minister George Stathakis said he had requested that the state’s legal advisers prepare for the arbitration process to begin.
The possible arbitration case would be the last in a string of challenges the gold company has had to overcome in Greece, where it has one operating mine and two project under development.
He added the move aims to ensure Eldorado’s Greek unit Hellas Gold, which is developing the project in northern Greece, respects its contractual obligations.
But the Vancouver-based company said it has not received formal notification or any details of any arbitration proceedings. As a consequence, Eldorado’s operations and development projects are continuing according to plan, it noted.
http://www.mining.com/greece-to-take-eldorado-gold-to-international-court-over-project/
FINANCIAL
Mexico owes Canada miners over $360 million, led by Goldcorp: documents
Reuters, 08 Jun 2017
Mexico’s tax agency is holding over $360 million (277.88 million pounds) in tax rebates owed to six Canadian miners, including $230 million (177.54 million pounds) to Goldcorp Inc (G.TO), according to sources and official documents seen by Reuters, escalating the situation into a showdown between the Mexican government and Canadian mining firms operating there.
In a string of meetings, Canadian officials have pressed Mexico to fix the problem, which hamstrings mining companies’ ability to invest in operations and is particularly difficult for smaller, cash-strapped miners and explorers, people familiar with the matter said.
Vancouver-based Goldcorp declined to comment on its outstanding refund, which represents 142 percent of its 2016 net profit and 6 percent of its full-year revenue.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mexico-mining-tax-idUKKBN18Z0CN
INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY
Robot Ghost Ships to Extend Miner’s Technology Drive to Seas
David Stringer Bloomberg, 07 June 2017
World’s top miner BHP seeking partners for vessel automation
Rolls-Royce to China working on push to develop unmanned ships
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, is studying the introduction of giant, automated cargo ships to carry everything from iron ore to coal as part of a strategic shift that may disrupt the $334 billion global shipping industry.
“Safe and efficient autonomous vessels carrying BHP cargo, powered by BHP gas, is our vision for the future of dry bulk shipping,” Vice President, Freight Rashpal Bhatti, wrote in a posting on its website. The company, also one of the world’s largest dry bulk charterers, is seeking partners to work on technological changes in the sector, he said.
Work is underway at the International Maritime Organization, the United Nations agency in London that oversees global shipping, to consider regulation of autonomous surface ships, James Fanshawe, a former senior Royal Navy officer and chairman of the U.K.’s Maritime Autonomous Systems Regulatory Working Group, said by phone. A meeting beginning Wednesday of IMO’s maritime safety committee will consider proposals for a regulatory study on the “safe, secure and environmentally sound operation” of autonomous vessels, according to the organization’s website.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-06/robot-ghost-ships-to-take-miner-s-technology-drive-on-high-seas
Penny, thank you for sharing this comprehensive and most interesting Behre Dolbear report,
PetervR
Interested in hards assets ? The link below provided by another reader, think it was secretrsquirrel, is a must see. Fantastic.
https://insider.kitco.com/lifetime-achievement-award-presentation-fireside-chat-robert-friedland/
In passing: to pigeonhole Friedland as a “promoter” is a gross and inaccurate insult. In his pblic interview with Northern Miner, a Canadian magazine, he did not even mention by name any of public companies he has interests in.
He did talk extensively about disruptive mining and extraction technologies, which I suspected are in his arsenal of private companies,,,in particular the I-Pulse technology, which I do not see how we can invest in directly.
Yes no way in, indirectly though all grist for the mill for the companies we are involved in. I read somewhere that the value of ipulse was one billion.
http://www.ipulse-group.com/
Based in Singapore, good spot regards Asia….
Robert Friedland believes in what he is doing and has made tremendous achievements in this field, which are being recognized by many industry sources. Despite his achievements and interests and success, he remains modest and circumspect, even when given every chance to hype and promote his public companies.
To characterize him as a promoter is to take a minor aspect of what his is doing and over-emphasise it. Of course he believes in hs own companies, that is why he started them, and the degree to which he “pitches” them apprears to me to be completely and discreetly within the reasonable steps that I would want from a responsible CEO in whose company I have an investment.
And he is one of the most educated, knowledgeable, and entertaining speakers I have come across in any field.
Interesting. Once you have more money than you need as a life safety net, you can think about the big picture. I dream of that day coz really what he’s saying is as obvious as the nose on your face…..so long as you can eat meantime.
Friedland’s big picture view as outlined in the BNN interview (provided by Chriz) gives a lot of food for thought. It deserves close attention by anyone interested in hard assets…also has a lot to say about food and the direction of big government.
HN: Friedland spoke about vanadium, Any thoughts?
Sure. Cleanteq. It is one of the elements they say can extract. Check the periodic table in their website.
Aslo it is usually a byproduct. It’s not too interesting to me right now as a stand-alone reseacrch play…I’d rather look for good back-ups in copper, cobalt and nickel.
PCY – Prophecy Development Corp. have a stake in Vanadium and will acquire one more project soon.
PCY…I have not done any research on it, no opinion no position, but the company was touted by Sprott, as I recall, and it was used as a proxy for vanadium in an analysis I saw on vanadium. So it is at least recoignized as a credible vanadium speculation by some people in the business.
Here is an article folks may want to review. I believe Doug Eberhardt to be a very honest and rationale source regarding gold and silver investing. This is his latest article along with some additional commentary:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4081018-gold-set-lift-post-fed-fed-preparing-recession?page=2
Thanks for posting. That article makes more sense than most I’ve read about the USA debt. It isn’t the USA deficit it is consumer debt, and productivity.