Gold and Silver and Hard Assets after Trump’s Inauguration…2017

By hendrixnuzzles, January 23, 2017

MAKE YOUR PORTFOLIO GREAT AGAIN !
This thread is a continuation of several threads posted previously by the author on gold and silver and hard asset investments. I am still a believer in hard assets. I also believe we are entering a period of inflation with continued dollar devaluation, higher interest rates, and a sluggish economy with chaotic dislocations. I believe there will be a lot of uncertainty and high volatility.

PURPOSE My intent is to find and discuss good mining and commodity ideas. Gold and silver remain a focus, but I want to achieve a more balanced approach still based on tangible commodities.

STEEL and IRON ORE…I believe Trump’s programs will benefit iron ore and steel. Stocks in this sector have been beaten down terribly but are rebounding. I am long VALE, a Brazilian company which is the world’s largest iron ore producer. I have been long Arcelor Mittal but do not have a position at the moment. Anybody know anything about cement and asphalt ?
COPPER, ZINC, PGM METALS…My very best conviction stock is Ivanhoe Mines IVPAF. I am completely comfortable with a large single position in IVPAF to cover these metals. However other investors may be uncomfortable with a small cap in sub-Saharan Africa. So I think it is beneficial to introduce other names even though I myself am not interested. Rio Tinto, Freeport-McMoran, Teck, Turquoise Hill, BHP and others come to mind. Travis, our host, is long Altius Minerals, and I have been also.
URANIUM…I’m bullish but the choices seem pretty limited. My top three investment-grade choices are Cameco first, then Cameco second, or my third pick would be Cameco. After that, you are speculating on small caps, or buying ETFS or funds comprised of Cameco and some small caps. At the moment, I am long Cameco and UEC.
LITHIUM…I am considering a long position in lithium. I have nothing to recommend at the moment, although I am strongly considering Galaxy, an Australian company. And I like Neometals, also an Australian, but it is difficult to get from my broker, who hates it when I want to buy obscure 50 cent companies on small foreign exchanges. If anybody’s got a great battery play, I am interested.
POTASH/FERTILIZER…very interested but they all seem pretty expensive. There has been consolidation but I have considered Agrium, Mosaic, and there is a German company whose name I forget at the moment (K&D? K&S?).
OIL AND GAS…I would like some very good conviction picks accompanied by strong reasons and decent research. This field is so big, we could get completely lost just tossing names around. I am somewhat worried about price weakness in the energy sector but feel that it is worthwhile to develop a point of view on a few companies. I have little experience although I made very good money in the past on XOM and CVX. Currently I would be interested in pipelines, LNG, or any other sector that someone knows something about. In natgas I like OGZPY.
SOLAR and WIND…really not too interested. The results depend too much on politics, the time frames seem too long. But I am not completely closed-minded on it if you have conviction on something.
COAL…same opinion as solar and wind, but the prices are low and depressed instead of hyped and high-flying. I am still stuck with some defaulted Arch Coal bonds that my financial advisor recommended. They went to ZERO. Now they are worth a Starbucks latte and a pastry. And no espresso shot in the latte, either.
AGRICULTURE…very interested. A large sector but really not too many choices if you rule out futures, like I do. I have a few obscure favorites, but no positions at present:
WHGPY (Chinese pork processor who bought Smithfield)
LAND (Gladstone Land, California farmland)
INCPY (Input Capital, a Canadian canola, streaming model).
Open to more conventional picks like ADM and DBA.
GOLD AND SILVER…my picks have been discussed at length previously. I follow these pretty closely. I am long royalty/streamers SAND, FNV, SLW, and OR; miners PVG, MAG; developers SA, CLASF, MRDCF, BALMF, KNTNF, and LXVMF; and I own PSLV and physical bullion. I swing trade big caps ABX and NEM.
****
DISCLOSURES. I am a retired executive and an amateur investor. I like both fundamental and technical analysis. I am a medium-term to long-term position player and prefer to discuss stock investment in that context. Please no minute-by-minute reports that oil is now 52.50 down 10 cents and the Iranians may suspend Ramadan next week so you are going long until the afternoon bell.

I am not an expert in any of the commodities discussed nor am I qualified to give advice.
Everyone makes mistakes and I make more than my share.Sometimes I change my mind.

When I post, I express my opinions and my positions. These are just that…they are my opinions and my positions. They are not advice or recommendations, which I remind you I am unqualified to make.

Opinions and positions are subject to change at any moment. That is quite unlike the pig-headed and foolish political convictions everybody carries around adamantly, and which change only rarely for unpredictable reasons that have nothing to do with logical thought or reasoned discussion.
Because of this, political developments can be introduced on this thread only when they have a clear bearing on the commodities or companies under discussion.

You are responsible for your decisions, and I am responsible for mine. Caveat emptor.

I would like to operate in a friendly, honest, and constructive atmosphere.
As thread moderator I reserve to myself the role of referee, censor, arbiter, and Grand Poobah, subject to the over-arching authority of Travis, who owns the site and who has on occasion exercised his right to ruthlessly censor and suppress my radical blatherings.

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.

leslie7
Irregular
👍673
leslie7

Good interview:
Rick Rule: Weakness In Gold Equities Has Me Very Excited
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4CHRlpKUPw

Talks about PMs and uranium.

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chas2411
Guest
chas2411

Sandstorm and Mariana Announce Recommended Combination to Create Leading Mid-Tier Streaming Company
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/April2017/26/c1276.

arch1
Member
👍7785

chas2411 Thanks for posting. I could not get link to work but here is latest I found on Sandstorm taking over Mariana.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sandstorm-mariana-announce-recommended-combination-063800723.html

Maybe alanh can translate 28 pence into US$ to be paid to share owners?

I continue my exposure to such by ownership of $SAND shares so I will miss this ,,,as it looks . early profit.

chas2411
Guest
chas2411

arch1 for each $MARL share $0.37 and 0.2573 of a $SAND share

arch1
Guest
arch1

chas Thank you. AH price $SAND is $4.04 so present price per share Mariana should be $1.38/ $1.40. Np. Mariana, long $SAND

chas2411
Member
👍105
chas2411

long $MARL
Thanks arch1
Current price £0.88p =$1.13 so still approx 20% upside

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SoGiAm
Member
👍11385

Mariana Resources – Thank you Chas2411 🙂 How Kewl is that 🙂
HN and the Gummies rock 🙂

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SoGiAm
Member
👍11385

happyycamperr‏ @happyycamperr
$SAND $MRLDF
Proposed combination
Win Win
http://www.sandstormgold.com/mobile/news_releases/articles/index.php?content_id=531
https://twitter.com/happyycamperr/status/857157938900815873

alanh
Member
👍4086

Oh joy!! Due to Turkish uncertainty, I put a sell in at 61 4 days ago and it never made….thought I was in trouble. It made today at 90. I dont often get that lucky.

Thanks several thousands HN.

alanh
Member
👍4086
rocketman
Member
👍356
rocketman

I own both $SAND and $MRLDF and this morning $SAND is down 10% while $MRLDF is up 55%. Thanks HN for your due diligence on Mariana or I wouldn’t be owning it today. I actually got lucky and increased my position in it by 80% just a few weeks ago not even thinking about the upcoming Turkey referendum. I’ve been looking to increase my stake in Sandstorm so this way works for me.

chas2411
Guest
chas2411

Long and OW $LON:FOX https://www.foxmarble.net/ If anyone would like to diversify their portfolio it may be worth some DD & investing in Fox Marble. I really think that ROI in the next year will approach 100%. They have a monopoly of high grade marble quarries in Kosovo (?about 8), have just set up and opened a new production line to cut and polish marble (increase profit) on one of the sites. Very recent (2017) new orders from Australia, London, India and now Turkey. The shares in this company have more or less been stagnant over the last year, due to… Read more »

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chas2411
Guest
chas2411

$MARL opened up 48% on LSE

niizajim
Irregular
👍972

Congratulations to all. I only have $SAND shares here. Sold MRLDF shares a while ago and thought I was smart. Still participating in it through SAND though. Looks like the SAND side of things did not like this deal as much as the Marianna side did. Down on the news.

Wonder how long it will take to get Hot Maden going. Probably quite a while yet. Just gonna hold on and here and watch it all play out. Thanks Hendrix and all for the encouragement on this one.

arch1
Member
👍7785

I added more $SAND today.
FWIW the price of gold, Dollar and Yen are all down, [ gold has been rising when Dollar drops] so maybe gold is finally getting ready to break loose from dollar and has reached a bottom. Part of the drop is the election in France and Euro reaction to possibility of Macron winning IMO. Personally I think that France would be better off with Le Pen which might be bad news for Euro.

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leslie7
Irregular
👍673
leslie7

I, too, just added as much $SAND as I could, given that I had to sell a couple of others to do so. Wish I could buy more. It’s now my second largest position. $IVPAF is my largest.

Long $SAND and $IVPAF

alanh
Member
👍4086

I dont understand why the deal is valued at ~110pence, but you can still buy at 94? Can someone please explain the difference to a newbie.

arch1
Member
👍7785

The variable is that quarter share of $SAND. The 110 pence is likely what deal was worth when signed. Now $Sand has dropped in price so 94 pence probably reflects new combination,,,sand share off $0.36 since open or 9 cents a share and dropping. I know that does not pencil out but could be confusion on part of buyers between pence and pennies.

alanh
Member
👍4086

I own $SAND, but Im not sure I want any more right now. They have spent a lot of money on this deal and (remembering that video about the right/wrong times to buy shares) they are committed to a huge mine development cost (or is that someone else?) or wait before they see a return. I think SAND could pull back further in the short term. I bought back (in effect) a few house shares of MARL.L at 86, but I may take the 94 and buy something else.

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Sharon Schreiner
Irregular
👍2740
Sharon Schreiner

Surely they are still just a streaming company and not actually going to build and operate the mine?

Sharon Schreiner
Irregular
👍2740
deanbob
Guest
deanbob

“That said, for investors who are looking for a long-term gold stock with lots of upside, Sandstorm is worth a closer look, especially after today’s sell-off.”

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alanh
Member
👍4086

$SAND….HN: You mean they ‘Hope to’. They may yet be the Turkey shoot.

Sharon Schreiner
Irregular
👍2740
Sharon Schreiner

SAND – if they take on mega- debt, or change strategy then I’ll bail, but otherwise we’ll see. I had decided against MRLDF because of Turkey, and now…ha ha…I didn’t see this coming. I do trust Nolan, though, and I will not be selling any of my gold stocks at this point…

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scottu
Member
👍17
scottu

Happy to add more $SAND to my modest holdings. Remember, SAND is dealing from a position of STRENGTH of holdings, agreements and finances. That means they made this voluntary deal w Mariana from a stress free NEAR CERTAINTY of benefiting STRONGLY over time as gold rises.

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secretsquirrel
Irregular
👍1229
secretsquirrel

Ivanhoe Mines April Presentation….

73 pages long!

https://www.ivanhoemines.com/site/assets/files/2705/2017-04-25-cp.pdf

Long C$IVN

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eemajin
Member
👍264

Shopify downgraded to sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital today. Not sure I should hang on to Shopify. Any further thoughts from you guys?

Sharon Schreiner
Irregular
👍2740
Sharon Schreiner

$SAND. I think the same fears that kept Mariana down will now have its effect on $SAND – Turkey under Erdogan. http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2017/04/26/turkey-arrests-over-1000-secret-imams-who-allegedly-infiltrated-police-force/
I may still add, but I’ll watch for a while and see how low fears may take it.

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alanh
Member
👍4086

Could be a Turkey shoot….thats why I tried to exit and happily failed till it bounced ~45%. Still SAND is taking one hell of a political risk. The Turkish blue chip company may have/had weight, but the last president, the EU and democracy had even more, and look where that got them.
Im on the side lines till theres a clear direction.