Gold and Silver and Hard Assets after Trump’s Inauguration…2017MAKE YOUR PORTFOLIO GREAT AGAIN !
This thread is a continuation of several threads posted previously by the author on gold and silver and hard asset investments. I am still a believer in hard assets. I also believe we are entering a period of inflation with continued dollar devaluation, higher interest rates, and a sluggish economy with chaotic dislocations. I believe there will be a lot of uncertainty and high volatility.
PURPOSE My intent is to find and discuss good mining and commodity ideas. Gold and silver remain a focus, but I want to achieve a more balanced approach still based on tangible commodities.
STEEL and IRON ORE…I believe Trump’s programs will benefit iron ore and steel. Stocks in this sector have been beaten down terribly but are rebounding. I am long VALE, a Brazilian company which is the world’s largest iron ore producer. I have been long Arcelor Mittal but do not have a position at the moment. Anybody know anything about cement and asphalt ?
COPPER, ZINC, PGM METALS…My very best conviction stock is Ivanhoe Mines IVPAF. I am completely comfortable with a large single position in IVPAF to cover these metals. However other investors may be uncomfortable with a small cap in sub-Saharan Africa. So I think it is beneficial to introduce other names even though I myself am not interested. Rio Tinto, Freeport-McMoran, Teck, Turquoise Hill, BHP and others come to mind. Travis, our host, is long Altius Minerals, and I have been also.
URANIUM…I’m bullish but the choices seem pretty limited. My top three investment-grade choices are Cameco first, then Cameco second, or my third pick would be Cameco. After that, you are speculating on small caps, or buying ETFS or funds comprised of Cameco and some small caps. At the moment, I am long Cameco and UEC.
LITHIUM…I am considering a long position in lithium. I have nothing to recommend at the moment, although I am strongly considering Galaxy, an Australian company. And I like Neometals, also an Australian, but it is difficult to get from my broker, who hates it when I want to buy obscure 50 cent companies on small foreign exchanges. If anybody’s got a great battery play, I am interested.
POTASH/FERTILIZER…very interested but they all seem pretty expensive. There has been consolidation but I have considered Agrium, Mosaic, and there is a German company whose name I forget at the moment (K&D? K&S?).
OIL AND GAS…I would like some very good conviction picks accompanied by strong reasons and decent research. This field is so big, we could get completely lost just tossing names around. I am somewhat worried about price weakness in the energy sector but feel that it is worthwhile to develop a point of view on a few companies. I have little experience although I made very good money in the past on XOM and CVX. Currently I would be interested in pipelines, LNG, or any other sector that someone knows something about. In natgas I like OGZPY.
SOLAR and WIND…really not too interested. The results depend too much on politics, the time frames seem too long. But I am not completely closed-minded on it if you have conviction on something.
COAL…same opinion as solar and wind, but the prices are low and depressed instead of hyped and high-flying. I am still stuck with some defaulted Arch Coal bonds that my financial advisor recommended. They went to ZERO. Now they are worth a Starbucks latte and a pastry. And no espresso shot in the latte, either.
AGRICULTURE…very interested. A large sector but really not too many choices if you rule out futures, like I do. I have a few obscure favorites, but no positions at present:
WHGPY (Chinese pork processor who bought Smithfield)
LAND (Gladstone Land, California farmland)
INCPY (Input Capital, a Canadian canola, streaming model).
Open to more conventional picks like ADM and DBA.
GOLD AND SILVER…my picks have been discussed at length previously. I follow these pretty closely. I am long royalty/streamers SAND, FNV, SLW, and OR; miners PVG, MAG; developers SA, CLASF, MRDCF, BALMF, KNTNF, and LXVMF; and I own PSLV and physical bullion. I swing trade big caps ABX and NEM.
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DISCLOSURES. I am a retired executive and an amateur investor. I like both fundamental and technical analysis. I am a medium-term to long-term position player and prefer to discuss stock investment in that context. Please no minute-by-minute reports that oil is now 52.50 down 10 cents and the Iranians may suspend Ramadan next week so you are going long until the afternoon bell.
I am not an expert in any of the commodities discussed nor am I qualified to give advice.
Everyone makes mistakes and I make more than my share.Sometimes I change my mind.
When I post, I express my opinions and my positions. These are just that…they are my opinions and my positions. They are not advice or recommendations, which I remind you I am unqualified to make.
Opinions and positions are subject to change at any moment. That is quite unlike the pig-headed and foolish political convictions everybody carries around adamantly, and which change only rarely for unpredictable reasons that have nothing to do with logical thought or reasoned discussion.
Because of this, political developments can be introduced on this thread only when they have a clear bearing on the commodities or companies under discussion.
You are responsible for your decisions, and I am responsible for mine. Caveat emptor.
I would like to operate in a friendly, honest, and constructive atmosphere.
As thread moderator I reserve to myself the role of referee, censor, arbiter, and Grand Poobah, subject to the over-arching authority of Travis, who owns the site and who has on occasion exercised his right to ruthlessly censor and suppress my radical blatherings.
This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.
I have a general question about holding vs. selling PM stocks if the economy takes a big hit, which I happen to think is a good bet given local and global economies and geopolitical “messes.”
I have long (but not large, due to a lack of cash to invest) positions in about 20 PM stocks.
If there is some “black swan” event (or even an expected event) that causes a large drop in the markets, what are your thoughts about just sitting tight on the PM stocks and waiting for them to go up again? My thinking is that such an event would eventually be very good for PMs and, therefore, for PM stocks.
I know that some folks recommend setting a trailing stop, selling, and then buying again when the stocks are lower. That makes a lot of sense if one has relatively large amounts invested in each position. However, if I did that, the transaction costs of selling then buying back would take a pretty large chunk out of many of my smaller positions. Also, I’m NOT good at timing the markets.
I guess the big question is: If the economy tanks and takes stock prices with it, is it a good bet that PM stocks (specifically PM stocks) will eventually shoot back up for nice gains for anyone willing to patiently wait out the crash?
Thanks in advance for any words of wisdom from the Gummunity!
1. Transaction costs on most purchases or sales are less than $10. If that is an issue you should not be in stocks.
2. Are you investing or trading?
3. If nothing has changed regarding the financial or assets story of the company why react?
4. To be an investor is to be able to control your emotions. Not ignore reality but to know when to act and when know when to hold.
Thanks, Hedy.
#1. Good point
#2. I’m investing, not trading.
#3. That’s what I was wondering 🙂
#4. Therein lies a problem for me, I’m relatively new (about one year) to PM stocks, and I’m not sure that I “know when to act and know when to hold.” That is why I’m looking for a “rule of thumb” or sage advice on which is better should there be a major economic event.
One good rule is when a small miner goes up 100%, sell half and take a free ride.
Also keep trailing stops and follow them without exception.
Trailing stops not stocks.
Great strategy, all one needs is the discipline to follow it.
Minimizes losses.
Hedy, what allocation cash do you keep, and how tight are your stops ?
Investment cash allocation typically 20-30%.
Trailing stops vary by type of stock. Use TradeStops as a tool. None ever put with broker.
My trim the bushes when they grow a bit unruly/ fertilize them when they get a bit droopy strategy, has allowed me to double my gains [vs total passivity], while only trading around 15% around the edges of my portfolio. It takes discipline and vigilance, and it works best if you are in a bull market, with a little bit of volatility. The less I sell the better, as far as I’m concerned, but opportunities avail themselves, and I am nimble to jump on them. Also if a company manifests some suckiness causing down movement of the stock, I want to be the first one out the door. If you don’t perform, you’re off the team.
The future is so uncertain. Personally I am persuaded of the long-term value of PM stocks and will hold, almost no matter what; but position size is key.
As a practical matter, I have found that emotions will overrule whatever strategy you have in theory. You may have a buy-and-hold intent, as I do; but if the position is too large and the losses are serious, emotions take over and you start to panic and doubt , and you will throw the position overboard at precisely the wrong moment.
I was an emotional basket case on January 20, 2016. I was very long in gold positions. I was thinking of selling out. This was the worst time to sell, the best time to buy; but I was getting beaten up and had no investment capital or emotional reserves to build the positions. Fortunately I stayed put.
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Even if you are a trader, and not a buy-and-hold person, emotions can get the best of you if your positions are too large. You will break your own rules on stop losses
or profit taking. You will make exceptions and rationalize deviations from your strategies.
Therefore I think the most important thing is to have positions you believe in, but have position sizes that are not debilitating emotionally if they go against you. Keep enough cash reserves so you can look at price drops with bemusement: “Oh boy. I can buy some more at a bargain. Those people selling are making a mistake.”
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My biggest position is Sandstorm Gold. I have complete confidence in the value and future of the company. I look at Sandstorm Gold as cash at prices under $4.00. My entry average is around $4.40. When it hit $3.40 a few weeks back, I wasn’t too happy, but I wasn’t about to sell, either.
Practice and prepare yourself for the worst and try to decide beforehand what your plan will be. Review your reasons for being in the position, and be sure none of the fundamental basis has changed for being in the position. Check the news first, then ask yourself: Would I rather buy or sell at this price ? Your current position size is irrelevant to this question….except for the emotions involved, which is my point.
Thank you, HN!!
I would put this in the For What It’s Worth category but I received this email from my broker yesterday:
Dear Clients,
In light of this past year’s sharp upward move in Ivanhoe Mines, I’m encouraging clients to begin harvesting some profits ahead of what I believe may be a pending capital raise (a dilutive event).
When we first invested in the company they had 3 world class discoveries – a platinum project in South Africa and both a zinc and a copper discovery in the Congo. This past year they’ve added a second massive copper discovery in the Congo which, in addition to a rising copper price, has led to the company being up over 500% in the past 12 months.
Anytime a stock posts such gains, it is prudent to pull some capital off the table and harvest gains. I am still optimistic about copper and Ivanhoe, in general, but it’s important that we recognize the heightened political risks associated with the location of their deposits and the potential for an ugly negative event that could occur in such parts of the world.
I guess nobody can predict the future but I told him to sell half my shares and I am going to buy some Bear Creek and some Clean Teq
Thanks Bridutt, there is no reason to quibble with your broker, no one goes broke
taking profits and it is a sound strategy.
The right thing to do depends on your objectives and emotional well-being.
The problem for me in this case is that I have no investment alternatives that I prefer over Cleanteq or Ivanhoe.
Also I would consider that many advisors say to let winners ride: sell losers and keep winners. This resonates for me since all of my gains this year are about equal to my gains in Ivanhoe.
Bridutt, would you ask your broker what information he has about a “pending [dilutive] capital raise” ?
I am skeptical of this. It may just be broker-speak to justify his recommendation, but if he actually has wind of something it could be helpful.
Friedland does not like dilution, and the company has loads of cash. I think it is more likely that there would be a transaction returning capital to shareholders, rather than diluting them. But I have no firm information on either type of transaction.
Hey HN…I reached out to my broker and as you suspected there is nothing concrete that he would own up to. He stated that with such a sharp increase in price , most management teams will use that window to tap equity markets, but as you have said, Friedland is not necessarily like other management teams. My broker is with Rick Rule’s group and is very sharp so he may know more than he is saying so I guess the best course of action is to just be cautious.
The broker is generalizing but I think this is just good advisory strategy to hedge the bet. If the stock tanks, he can say “I told you to take profits.” If it doubles, he can say “I told you to keep 50%.”
Not being critical, the clients are ahead either way; but it is not the strategy for me. I am in with both feet and want a big winner.
Bridutt. If you have been in this for awhile you may have a triple or more. Just take your original money off the table.
Rick Rule is a big fan of Robert Friedland. It was Rule’s interview with Friedland, link provided by frahmen, that sent me gaga over Ivanhoe.
I am perplexed as to why you view Robert Friedland with such high regard. By any chance have you read “The Big Score Robert Friedland and the Voisey’s Bay Hustle” by Jacquie McNish? He is not a miner but a promoter.. He has a long record of promoting mining projects that benefit him monetarily, but NOT the investors. His ethics are questionable. I would be highly skeptical of any endeavor associated with Robert Friedland.
If you do not understand why RF is held in high esteem you have not looked closely at his accomplishments.
These have been explicitly mentioned on this site. But one really needs to look no farther than the current projects at Ivanhoe, any one of which would be
Great lifetime achievements for anyone in the mining business.
Cobalt Miner News For The Month Of February 2017 – by Matt Bohlsen of SA
This article has the current forecast for Cobalt and what the big cobalt miners are doing. It also mentions $CTEQF and $ECSIF junior miners. It mentions that there are 12 megafactories coming online, but again no mention of who or when.
seekingalpha.com/article/4048926-cobalt-miner-news-month-february-2017?app=1&uprof=46&isDirectRoadblock=true
x posted
Hi Griffin. There are no big cobalt miners. There are big miners who produce cobalt as a by-product. But no big miner mines cobalt as a primary product.
Because of this I would not recommend big cap miners as a way to capitalize on a cobalt boom. Their fortunes will depend on other things.
$MAG Silver…it has been strong lately and I guess this news release from February 14 is part of the reason:
http://www.magsilver.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=778438
They have now delineated 3 separate veins or zones in the property. The tunnel to the ore is under construction by Fresnillo, which is already operating a major mine nearby.
In the the latest drill results they are finding a lot of gold and other stuff.
The project is 44% MAG, 56% Fresnillo.
Long MAG.
PURELY SPECULATION…I have no evidence at all for this. It is purely a flight of imagination.
But it seems logical to me that shortly after the Syerston cobalt/nickel/scandium project is commissioned, it would make a lot of sense for CleanTeQ to implement a pilot extraction facility in a mine that has a rich multi-metallic deposit. Like maybe the Platreefs project in South Africa, which is the world’s largest six-metal PGM deposit outside of Norilsk in Russia. In one orebody, they’ve got platinum, palladium, rhodium, gold, and a bunch of other juicy stuff. .
Did I fail to mention… Ivanhoe Mines is the controlling owner of Platreefs ?
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Another unsubstantiated speculation on the thinnest evidence. Would you be surprised to hear sometime in the near future that BHP or Rio Tinto announce a CleanTeQ processing facility to process tailings from an existing large mine to extract trace materials from it ?
They basically have the ability to clean up the dog sh*t out of my back yard and turn it to gold. It sounds ridiculous, but its not that far off. On top of that, they basically can take toxic water, pass it through their magic resins and magnets or whatever they do, and out the other side comes two streams, drinking water and money. Let me repeat people, they can turn toxic sludge to gold, and toxic water to money. I’m pouring money into this one and kind of laughing, maybe I’m not reading it right.
Clean TeQ’s Clean-iX® continuous ion exchange process provides highly efficient extraction and purification for a range of valuable strategic metals from slurries and solutions. Clean TeQ is focused on applying its proprietary ion exchange processes to the recovery of strategic metals from ores and tailings where the conventional routes are economically marginal or pose an environmental burden that is not sustainable.
Not wishing to rain on anyones parade, but this sort of press release ”Clean TeQ’s Clean-iX® continuous ion exchange process provides highly efficient extraction and purification for a range of valuable strategic metals from slurries and solutions.” Its a bit like a washing machine maker saying ‘Ours washes whiter’….what would you expect them to say? Wheres the process defined?
There are details available on the website. Take a look. The process is explained so that people like you and me can understand it, although no figures on the economic efficiency are provided.
Technically, the process is one process that runs water through a column of resin. The different elements can be extracted by changing the composition of the resins through which the waste or ore solutions are circulated through. The process is automated and continuous, unlike a filtration process where the filters need to be changes and cleaned.
Their claims are stronger than “washes whiter”. They list the elements they can extract. They have deep proprietary work over ten years in formulating and testing different resin compounds, and Dow Chemical is noted as a collaborator.
In terms of proof, they are building the Syerston plant that will use this technology to extract cobalt and scandium from crushed rock.
So this factory is the “put up or shut up” test for the Clean-iX process. It is a test that I predict will be successful and the results will be in plain view within one year.
Hi Alan,
You can see the company’s 4 minute YouTube description of the iX process circuit at:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xW5M2s2Aag
When A Certain Person gets back from the SME conference in San Diego, I’ll get him to comment. He understands these things. In fact he’s willing to have you all send him to Perth (Western Australia, not Scotland) to check it out in person for the shareholders! How’s that for a deal?!
ACP has worked in depth on such areas as arsenic removal, plutonium remediation and bankable feasibility studies. He’s also professionally checked out “secret processes” for promoters that one could only describe as shady (both the processes & the promoters). Many a story there.
Penny
renby…pretty close but they are not going to make drinking water altghough I suppose they could. They call it “fit for use”, meaning good enough not to poison people, to use in agriculture, or to return to the water table.
Alchemists turning toxic sludge into cash.
Love that quote…..(-: and they said it could never be done!
Long/Large already CLQ
Clean TeQ is focused on applying its proprietary ion exchange processes to the recovery of strategic metals from ores and tailings where the conventional routes are economically marginal or pose an environmental burden that is not sustainable”
This is bringing back many bad memories. . I have a PHD in mining given out to those losing more than a million $.
I staked ground near Robert Friedland’s Voisey Bay. I chased Bre-X in Indonesia. Go see movie “GOLD.” The whole mining industry is infested with LIARS and Cheats. I chased PHD’s talking about recovering gold from everything for many many years.
Some PHD’s even talked about resins and ion exchange in 1996. I thought I was smart enough to figure it all out. WRONG !!! I have done everything in the mining industry and at one time knew everyone. Even audited a gold and silver refinery in Amarillo and a copper smelter. I thought I knew everything….. Right !! Cleaned my clock. BEWARE !!!
But hey you all have to be way smarter than this FOOL !!!
I also travelled that road. Only received a
B.S. Emphasis on B.S.
Sage cautionary words you speak!
BTW I use to hang out with Rick Rule in the 1980’s and early 90’s at conventions. They would travel the convention circuit. I worked in NYC at the time. They were all rock stars.
I have seen and heard it all. I did so much due diligence it was crazy. You can never never overcome outright lies and deceit no matter how smart you think you are. I have paid a huge price for being a FOOL here.
Fair enough but let me ask you, are you calling Friedland, Watson or Quartemain liars or cheats ?
Hi Mr. Lake Erie,
Appreciate your input, regret your bad experiences, and agree that healthy cynicism is warranted in mining.
However I think you are painting a group portrait with too broad a brush.
I am satisfied with the integrity of the management, the quality of the assets, or both, of the companies I invest in.
If you are right then I will regret it.
If you have anything specific about the Kamoa/Kakula copper deposit, the Big Zinc Kipushi project, the Platreefs multi-metal deposit, the Hot Maden copper-gold deposit, PVG’s Brucejack, the Syerston cobalt/scandium mine, the Juanicipio silver vein at MAG, or the PEA of Seabridge that shows over 40 million ounces of gold reserves, then I would appreciate hearing about it.
HN – it is always a pleasure to see the Wheat separated from the Chaff, but we must admit there is a lot of Chaff in the precious metals mining business. Your focus on specifics is always appreciated.
I agree there are a lot of questionable resource stocks and hucksters out there. But it is too much to paint the entire industry as
con men and charlatans.
Before I was in the home furnishings business, I knew that “rug merchant” and “feather merchant” were derogatory names for dealers in carpets and feather and down. Yet when I was in the business, I found many individuals in it whom I came to regard very highly for integrity and ethics.
Some were questionable, certainly;
but I found plenty of them with whom I had not the slightest doubt
concerning their ethics and business practices.
Long IVPAF. Thoughts on where recent downward trend might stabilize. Looking to add.
No opinion. The stock went from 36 cents to $3.80 in less than a year, so sentiment is high. Maybe Fibonacci ratios would provide some good guesses.
Correction: Ivanhoe hit a low of 38 cents in January 2016.
If you are smart you can tilt the playing field in your direction, but the bigger factor, for better or worse, is luck. I bet the house on a satellite launch with a 92% success rate, and set up tent the next day at the local park while they picked up the pieces scattered in the desert. [ok I’m being dramatic again, but you get the idea]. Plan B failed also, fortunately plan C worked, because there was no plan D.
CleanTeQ is not talking about recovering gold.
Prosepects near Voisey Bay are not the same as Voisey Bay.
Sorry about Bre-X.
CleanTeQ building a cobalt/sandium mine using their Clean-iX process, and they have a binding water purification contract with a large Chinese entity. If you know of anything suspicious about these projects, please tell.
Hi Cleveland (& others),
Post BreX:
For Canadian companies look for a QP (Qualified Person) designation for some technical person in authority (or their mining/geological/metallurgical contractor); for Australian companies look for a CP (Chartered Professional) designation. The designations are used in the US too.
Of course given the right incentives, even a QP or CP could pad out the truth (“alternative facts”?), but odds are against it.
We enjoyed the movie too. Chain of command of the samples was the problem.
Penny
$CTEQF https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgoUwaNvEJ0
Thanks Renby…I got answers to many of my questions above from this vid.
Ive only been here a short time, so plenty of reading still to do, but Id appreciate some pointers.
1/ What is it that Cleanteq’s water filtration system is doing thats unique. Ion exchange technology has been around for years. Is it just that no one has thought to apply it to metals extraction ? Whats the USP about their system? Is the method defined anywhere? Is there a patent of any kind?
2/ I assume that the process could be retro applied to existing slag heaps world wide offering the heap owners an extraction %, rather like a royalty.
This is the takeqway I got from the 1st feb 17 vid.
1/ They have 2 USP’s……a small footprint and tailored ion exchange for different metals.
2/ He speaks of patents but says that the problem with patents is that it gives the IP game away….so their patents are v general and probably unenforcable. He’s relying on secrecy to protect their methods.
3/ He found reluctance to get miners etc to change their way of doing stuff, so in having their own mine, they dont have to convince any old school miners. Sensible, but sort term theres no revenue expectation from the filtration product. Of course though, once they can demo the system works to others, sales may begin to happen…..but that wont be next week.
4/ The Chinese use is mostly focused on pollution control……..any revenue from metals recovered is mostly going to pay for the filters installation/operation cost.
5/ He says that the scandium is a solution looking for a market. I think it will take many years before aero companies inc this alloy. Id see more accepteance (less risk), in reducing the weight of elec/gas automobiles to improve mpg/range
6/ The stock is cheap so, as a sleeper, it may pay off handsomely in the looooong run…..just like ARTH.
Just my 2 cents. Starter position.
The miners will be persuaded when Syerston is operational. CleanTeQ is in control of this project 100%.
The resistance of the miners is one reason they decided to just do it themselves. They are going to persuade people by doing it. They aren’t going to debate things with a mine operator.
Also note that Ivanhoe Mines has a few projects where they could probably expect co-operation.
Sorry…more posts that belong on the CleanTeQ thread.
“Sorry…more posts that belong on the CleanTeQ thread.”
hn – do you want responses posted on the CleanTeQ thread or left here? It’s kind of a hybrid company, especially with the Friedland involvement.
Penny
Go head, Alan…take all the shots on goal you want to !
China…the first project is large and will take time, but there is a binding agreement. Once it happens we should expect a flood of orders. And there is the rest of the world outside China, to which CleanTeQ has 100% interest for Clean-iX.
Scandium alloys……farther along than we might think. The aerospace and aviation industry knows about scandium, the issue has been cost and supply chain reliability. The Russians already made MIG fighters using scandium/aluminum alloys but discontinued it because of costs and supply reliability.
CleanTeQ is about to solve both issues. The entire transport sector needs lighter, stronger materials for fuel efficiency. That’s cars, trucks, planes, and trains. Motorbikes also.
Mine retrofits…Friedland’s connections in mining are without parallel. He personally has been instrumental in half a dozen or more world-class, tier one metal mines, he will have the pick of the world’s slag heaps to mine.
That leaves cobalt. There is a large and expanding market for this material and it will be the first component to provide sales and profits for CleanTeQ. The timeframe is one year.
IMO CleanTeQ is more certain and a faster time frame than $ARTH.
Still very long $ARTH.
Easy race to follow, they are both about the same price.
I see the parallel and am not aiming to throw rotten eggs….but being new to this company, I must ask myself questions. Both Cleanteq and ARTH will produce product. The question is, which will generate more revenue? Cobalt/water purification/Scandium or liquid Band Aid? Maybe the most compelling arguement lays in portf diversification.
It is not one versus the other. I am long both. I would say the potential revenues and market caps are both much larger than currently envisioned by the investment community. The main difference is that I consider CleanTeQ to have a better chance of timely success. It is a much simpler proposition with fewer potential pitfalls.
But if you want to compare, I consider the revenue potential and market cap to be greater for CleanTeQ than for Arch Therapeutics.
For quite a long period, I felt that Arch Therapeutics was the best opportunity I knew of for a big return speculation. I still feel it is a very good speculation.
But in recent months I have come to regard Ivanhoe Mines and CleanTeQ as opportunities that have substantiall or even comparable return potentials, with less uncertainty of outcome and more limited time frames.
Long $ARTH, $IVPAF, $CTEQF
Alan, if one considers only the scandium potential of CleanTeQ, it is a risky speculation and I would vastly prefer Arch as a bet.
If one considers only the cobalt potential, I would consider Arch to have a better payoff potential, but higher risk.
If one considers only the water purification potential, I would consider CleanTeQ to have a higher payoff potential, with somewhat less risk than a biotech clinical stock.
If one considers the mineral recovery aspects, then I consider CleanTeQ to have more potential with roughly equal risk.
But you are getting all four chances with CleanTeQ. That is why I consider it a better bet.
Long ARTH, Long CTEQF
From Mining Weekly regarding CleanTeQ on the mining side and its BFS (Bankable Feasibility Study):
http://www.miningweekly.com/article/clean-teq-raises-a15m-for-bfs-2016-11-03
From the above article:
“The BFS is now fully funded to completion, and is on track for release in the fourth quarter of 2017.
While the BFS is being completed, the company will undertake a range of activities to secure financing for the development of Syerston, including progressing a range of options in relation to offtake finance, project level financing and debt financing.”
Patience needed.
Penny (long $CTEQF and ASX $CLQ)
Best for you to review their materials on the website concerning the process. To your questions:
(1) Ionization is common but what CleanTeQ has done that is different is to make a system where the process is continuous and automated, and they have deep expertise in the resin formulations to expand the range of materials that can be extracted.
You may also note the recent research grants to different Australian institutes that are allied with CleanTeQ development. I suspect that much of this money will be used to develop the resin formulations that will be used in the process.
There are not ironclad patents on the process but I believe the intellectual moat is sufficient. They are already ten years into the development, have a worldwide license from the Russian institute that developed a lot of the technology, and have alliances with China, Airbus, Dow, BHP, and their own government. They have a mine and great connections with big cap miners all over the world.
Who is going to knock them off ?
(2) You are correct in that mining slag heaps are a potentially profitable source of trace materials for the process. There have been a lot of mines in the last 150 years and many are surely full of trace minerals that were never extracted because it was uneconomical to do so.
Answers
1. The continuous loop and automation of the process, plus their resin formulas, are proprietary to CleanTeQ.
2. The stated strategy of the company is joint venture, partnership or ownership in attractive projects.
Dave Kranzler: Northern Dynasty Could Go To Zero
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/536584-dave-kranzler/4963536-northern-dynasty-go-zero?app=1&uprof=45&isDirectRoadblock=true
$NAK no position
NAK np – In case any one is still looking at NAK as a good investment, I am going to reiterate that the development of the Pebble Mine faces a lot of opposition, mainly because it sits at the headwaters of the largest sockeye salmon run in the world. Even with a new EPA head and a more favorable climate in Washington, NAK and the Pebble Mine are foolishly risky as an investment.
The main reason IMO is that there is not a viable deposit.
$NAK was never an investment. It was a speculation.
A fair number of individuals who have ire and cynicism towards the mining industry may have a suitable target in $NAK. No position.
NAK np – The late Alaskan Senator Ted Stevens was a respected republican and strongly pro development of resources. The following is a quote attributed to him. “The Pebble Mine is the wrong mine in the wrong place.” He was against this project moving forward. There are a lot of valid reasons for his position that have nothing to do with “ire and cynicism towards the mining industry.” The opposition to this project is formidable. That’s what makes this a nonviable deposit. If there was none, it would be full steam ahead. The staggering size of the deposits would prove to be highly lucrative. Whether an investment or speculation, I am stating that there are many roadblocks to this project and am suggesting caution to the unwary investor.
$SAND Sandstorm Gold…Nolan Watson on Kitco.
Busy guy. Explains synergy on JDL/Luna deal.
He confirms that a lot of miners suck. They lie, also.
Wonder who he is talking about.
http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/GSA-Investor-Day-2017/1496/2017-02-26/Mining-CEOs-Need-To-Stop-Lying-To-Shareholders—Sandstorms-CEO
The entire industry. Go hang out with the mining industry in Canada and USA for some period of time. Just hold on to your wallet. They can talk you into anything. Been there.
Somehow or other Sandstorm finds enough credibility in the industry to put millions of dollars into royalty deals that do not pay off unless metal is produced.
Hendrix, question for you. Here is a teaser from a precious metals guy named Dudley someone. Can’t remember now. Any idea of what the newly formed gold company is here that he is talking about?
Mining warrants (still a heavy component of CSW) are set to make outrageous gains Dudley’s portfolio (available with our Gold subscription) has been on FIRE and subscribers have enjoyed massive gains in the last year.
Content is constantly added to expand the information available to each of you
My current number 3 holding in my personal portfolio is a stock warrant on a recently forming gold company which YOU MUST OWN.
This gold company, which has $65 Million in cash, is ready to roll and the stock warrants have just shy of 5 years of remaining life which is more
than enough time for the markets to perform and for the company to execute on its business plans.
This company is a favorite of some of the biggest newsletter writers and investors in the resource sector and you need to own these stock warrants.
Personally, I am looking for my investment to be a 10 Bagger or more (i.e. 1000% gains) and you can join me in this exciting opportunity
at the same prices that I have paid, if you act NOW.”
That’s almost certainly Luna/JDL Gold (soon to be Trek Mining). I own some Luna shares.
Thanks. I was going to ask if that might be the case.
~~~ Lithium Miner News For The Month Of February 2017 ~~~
Summary
Lithium spot and contract price news – Lithium spot prices rose slightly.
Lithium market news – Dr. David Deak quoted: “To electrify the world’s fleet of vehicles: mine over 3.1 million t LCE of lithium every year, for 20 years”.
Lithium miner news – Lithium X acquires Arizaro lithium brine project in Argentina.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4050011-lithium-miner-news-month-february-2017?app=1&uprof=46&isDirectRoadblock=true
x post
$KNTNF (long)
Mining results from grade control drilling on the Irumafimpa Deposit:
http://www.k92mining.com/2017/02/6201/
$KNTNF K92 Mining…drill results
http://www.k92mining.com/2017/02/6201/
They are getting warm. The results are pretty good, for one thing the intersections appear to be near surface.
I have had some doubt about hanging around with K92. My position is in the red. I have considered selling, it is my weakest gold position. But for now I will stick around. The latest drill results are good enough for continued optimism.
It is really an exploration speculation, with an old mine already on the property. There are no PEA or proven reserves, I surmise because the project was formerly the property of ABX and they did not need detailed documentation to make a construction decision or get public money in an offering. Like $NAK, a lot of money was sunk into the project. However the concentrations of gold appear much better, and the scale of the project is much smaller, and there are many short-term benchmarks they can hit in reasonable time frames.
The only thing missing is proof of enough economically viable gold. But the mine is already built there. The property is largely unexplored, promising and they are drilling; so like I say, it is an exploration speculation.
One thing that I like is that they are producing small quantities of gold from the property to fund their own exploration. So if they are honest and execute their plan, the exploration will be self-funded from gold production instead of investor capital.
This is the type of project which is subject to distortion and exaggeration to retail investors, insofar as there are no proven reserves. It is also well-promoted, there are high profile backers, and the stock has been a roller coaster.
Long KNTNF
Thanks for the update, mm2 & hn. I’ve hung onto my $KNTNF shares too, despite their being in the red (but not as red as some of my biotech positions, which has probably saved them.) I admit to having cast hungry eyes on them, looking for something to sell to free up cash.
Cheers,
Penny
$KNTNF K92…anomalies in drill results…the results released are pretty good. There are some interesting details in them.
The drill results were for a set of 14 drill holes, of which 8 were fully reported. All of them had decent to excellent assays, ranging from mid- to high- single digits grams per ton, to dozens of grams per ton. The consistency of gold presence in all the holes is very encouraging, because it suggests continuity of the deposit between the holes.
I would like to see a map of the holes to get an idea of how large an area is indicated, but I have not yet been able to find a scale map of the hole locations.
Another interesting thing about the release is that results of 6 of the holes, the last six, were reported as “pending”. Thus the results of the drill set are incomplete. However, of the six “pending” hole, four of them had very good gold grades reported and the data shows that measurement intervals within the cores had been selected for assays.
The inference is that the assays for the gold were completed, but assays for secondary metals (silver, copper) were not; but that management decided to proceed with publication without the final results.
Also in the footnotes, management makes a comment to the effect that they are considering that their previous cut-off grades was set too high, on account of the consistency and multi-vein nature of the deposit. A lower the cut-off grade will
expand the total economic resources in the deposit.
$KNTNF K92…this is an interesting speculation because we will get both production statistics and drill results. The mine is operating, but at less than full capacity; they want to generate gold production and sales to fund exploration. Meanwhile they are drilling the property, looking for enough shiny stuff to rationalize fuller production.
Both things count but for me the expansion and verification of the deposit is more important.
$NAK…Northern Dynasty
Analyst John Doody on Kitco:
Newsletter editor and the man behind the Gold Stock Analyst Investor Day John Doody (on Kitco News on) whether he thinks its Alaskan Pebble mine is viable. ‘Now that [President] Trump got elected, they think the permit issue will be resolved but that doesn’t solve the problem,” he said. “The problem is that it doesn’t work, the deposit doesn’t work.”
Just call me John Doody Hendrixnuzzles.
Though I do invest in PMs, I’m really happy if the Pebble mine complex never gets off the ground because it’s only one of the most ravishingly lovely, ecologically complex & vital wild cold spots on Earth. Plus if people really must dig mines they can do it with far less environmental stress & more profit with say,SAND or IVPAF or PVG or MAG IMO
I agree. I do not see evidence that an economical mine can be built so I am really not too worried about it.
HN, I have realized a long time ago that you will continue to be negative towards any positive news and views towards NAK, so I will not waste time trying to come up with arguments in favor of the company. I also have to give you a lot of credit for your awesome contribution to the forum in general, so don’t get me wrong, HN.
Sadly, I don’t have much free time to write in these forums so I always try to keep things short, and I’m not the best responder.
I’m not buying NAK because I will sit on it for years and not sell my position before it gets built. Maybe the mine will never be in production, but that’s OK with me. I’m buying it because it can give me some insane gains within a short period of time; and so far it has! Like I’ve written before it has given me around 700% and has been one of my best performing stocks. I sold a big portion of my position recently, but now I have loaded up even more getting ready for what I hope is a new ride up very soon. This is of course not a stock that is by any means risk-free, but if you can handle the risk and not put all your money into it could be very rewarding; which it has for me no matter what happens from here!
Regarding John Doody: I’ve been a subscriber of his newsletter some time back, but I no longer take things he says/writes serious. My biggest loss ever was because of his recommendation on Rubicon Minerals. He also recommended the subscribers to load up even more when Rubicon crashed. His other picks in the newsletter also performed terrible, so when I see a statement like this I perceive him as a big joke. My personal opinion.
Honestly I hope you do well with NAK.
I am not short on NAK, I am skeptical. I have no position.
My skepticism will be removed by persuasive evidence that the gold deposit is economical to mine.
My skepticism will not be removed by Trump’s policies, or EPA regulatory approval, or by saving salmon, or by how great it will be for the Alaskan economy.
NAK needs only one thing: to have an economically viable deposit.
As far as Rubicon, Doody was not the only guy taken in.
Casey and James also recommended it in a teaser that got me interested almost two years ago.
Everyone makes mistakes. The resource newsletter writers are also subject to unavoidably bad performance in bear markets. For example, I like Sean Hyman, but his picks
were a complete disaster for a few years because his sectors tanked. His picks were catastrophic, really horrible. But I still like him and his approach…it just didn’t work for a few years. Oh well.
$NIP (TSX): Nippon provides test results of 2 Thermal Fragmentation trials in Australia:
http://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=8802103379257451&qm_symbol=NIP
Excerpt:
“Nippon is pleased to provide summary information regarding its Thermal Fragmentation activities in Australia with its distributor SAFESCAPE. Thermal fragmentation activities in Australia has consisted of two trials, one of which was conducted at narrow gold vein mine located in Victoria in order to evaluate several key points of the equipment and process, including but not limited to its efficiency and versatility. Three holes were made, two in waste rock and one in a gold bearing quartz reef. The equipment performed well in horizontal, downhole and uphole configurations. In the uphole configuration adjustments were required to account for the rapid rate of fragmentation of the material. Further metallurgical testwork on the ore mined generated a lot of interest. It was discovered that a significant portion of the coarse grained gold separated from the quartz during mining, additionally, while the thermal material is much smaller than blasted material they found that it also contained inclusions and micro fractures on a microscopic scale which resulted in significant improvements in comminution costs when compared to blasted and crushed material of the same genesis.”
From my original post earlier in this thread, I said I was more of a pick & shovel type guy in this industry. I do believe, in due time that Nippon will change how the industry mines its gold and precious metals.
http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2017/01/microblog-gold-and-silver-and-hard-assets-after-trumps-inauguration-2017/comment-page-1/#comment-4917107
At the time of my post on Jan 24th, NIP was at $.07 which is now 40% higher at $.11 and at its 52 week high. Wait for a pull back if you interested.
Long $NIP
Hendrix,
Have you ever taken a look at Pershing Gold ($PGLC)?
No position, but considering it. Seems like they are close to starting to mine in Nev. Just got some final permits according to a recent announcement. Low float for a miner and High IRR although only a 5.8 yr mine life. But lots of potential for further discovery. Seems like they are undervalued and are sue for a correction, especially as production looms in the near future. I think reserves measured and inferred total around .85 million if I remember correctly. That is probably not accurate. Anyway, just thought I would ask. Stock trades for around $3.15 right now.
I did look at Pershing some time ago. At the time it did not seem like an outstanding value at the time, but I have not tracked the price closely and maybe now it is. The basis for my evaluation was the HOG rating, I do not really know much about it although I have seen it promoted in newsletters.
I am not looking for more gold picks, I think the ones I have zeroed in on are enough for me for the time being. Honestly I am looking for more cash to put into Ivan and CleanTeQ. Will try to take a look this week.
Got it. Thanks for the opinion. Totally understand. Although Pershing might be undervalued, the reserves are nothing to get excited about so the HOG value is probably not all that great.
Question about CTEQF: How do you think it will hold up if there is a market crash? I’m getting a bit nervous about that and want to get more money into gold right now. I’m a bit overweight in bio so am looking to realign a bit as money becomes available. I have two plays that should finish by the end of this month.
Hi Hendrixnuzzles, with the big drop in Ivanhoe
What is your near and longer term outlook, with them and the recent smack down in the metals my portfolio has been beaten up! Always appreciate your insight and effort you put into your posts!!
Trading Mindset of Hendrixnuzzles goes “Snap”
…Today my thoughts were dominated by two things: Digestion of the large transaction by $CTEQF CleanTeQ, which is discussed at length on the “Scandium, Cobalt, and Water Purification: CleanTeQ Holdings” thread (findable by clicking on my blank avatar on the left); and the continued drop in price of Ivanhoe Mining to $2.86.
Something has changed in my outlook and reactions. Maybe it’s because Alan is reading along now. I had the urge to sell CleanTeQ, which I resisted; and I had the urge to buy more Ivanhoe instead of mope around about my daily loss on it. The urge to buy more Ivanhoe was satisfied, I increased my outlandish position in it.
Bought more at $2.86.
Now ya tell me…I just bought CLQ !!! 🙂
I had the urge to sell CleanTeQ but did not.
Did buy Ivan, though.
I sold IVN when someones broker (above) said sell. I will buy back soon.
But Alan, its a normal reaction that when you buy something, the Gummune gets the urge to sell 🙂
A tip of my cap to you. You are a true investor buying your strongest belief when it turns down. Ivanhoe now down about 27% from recent high. I was tempted as well but couldn’t pull the trigger.
It would be easier if I stayed more in cash like you do.
Some things are simple in concept but hard to execute in practice.
Buying low and selling high is one of them.
IVN – March Presentation
https://www.ivanhoemines.com/assets/docs/ppt/ivn-corporate-presentation-for-web-march-1-2017.pdf
Nicely timed after the last few days……