by DrKSSMDPhD | January 30, 2017 9:32 am
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2017/01/noblecon13-live-blog/
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$BIOC closed at $2.51 in after hours. Nice run today, nearly 45% gain. I am curious to hear who the large national health plan association is.
Long $BIOC
$BIOC up 15% after hours to about $2.51 after a 30% rise in the day.
Apparently the CEO’s “Letter to Shareholders” was very positively received. (You can find it posted earlier in this thread). Thanks to Dr. KSS and Helen (ling-ling) who have spoken of the huge potential with this company. A dear friend of my wife with stage 4 breast cancer did send a blood sample to Greece for a “liquid biopsy” to help determine her chemo course. I imagine $BIOC has a more sophisticated test as the “Greek Test” has been around over 10 years and I am not qualified to comment on its usefulness.
I own no shares but have a handful of options which are now floating at face value.
Long $BIOC, but find some things troubling:
1. failure to Id the large national association without a reason as to why not;
2. mention of a $million third quarter without any indication of a repeat 4th quarter;
3. failure to provide any data specifics, but lots of amorphous plans; and,
4. absence of any discussion about the current competitive landscape given that U of Texas’ MD Anderson is going into the same business in multiple locations with another liquid biopsy firm as I mentioned several pages ago. If BIOC has the best and patented technology and seems focused on providing affordable tests, why does MD Anderson, as recently announced, go with another firm when BIOC appeared to have field reps in Houston? BIOC never returned my inquiry call.
Looking forward to more detailed info when 4th quarter results are released in March — Curt
Take it from me, former MD Anderson professor: the place is a money-sucking vortex. And is in deep doo-doo financially now. This is about one thing: money. Maybe not actual test kickbacks, but consideration from the company paid to MD Anderson for making it the provider of record for CTC tests. MD Anderson doesn’t care who has the best test. BioCept may be too noble and honest to deal with Anderson in a situation like this.
NEW COLUMN, NEW THREAD. http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2017/02/the-rest-of-the-12-biotechs-of-christmas/comment-page-1/#comment-4920191
Two things: Cleveland and $ARTH
Cleveland, I really like the way you look at companies. What are your favorite picks now?
$ARTH – I was disappointed with the lukewarm response I got to my email to the company and not sure the email ever got to Dr. Norchi, but at the Noblecon presentation, he failed to emphasize the VALUE of AC5 as he used to in other presentations. Here is what I suggested:
“I have been invested in Arch Therapeutics for more than a year. I have a great deal of confidence in this investment despite the recent setback with the device/drug mixup. I watched the video of your presentation at Noblecon down in my neck of the woods, and I hope you will take this small but I believe important constructive critique to heart. I think you should stress early on in your presentations why your lead product is VALUABLE. Simply say:
“Why is our product, AC5, valuable? It has many potential uses, but one way to easily see the value is by looking at the cost of surgery. Operating rooms typically charge a flat fee plus charge for each minute. These charges can be as high as $60 per minute or even more. So operating room charges for even a brief 2 hour surgery can easily run over $7000. 30 to 50% of time in surgery can be spent controlling bleeding. Let’s call it 40% of the time. If you could reduce the percentage of time spent controlling bleeding to just 10%, you could cut that 120 minute surgery down to 80 minutes. That savings of 40 minutes would reduce the charge for operating room time from $7000 to less than $5000. So for a 2 hour operation the time savings alone could be worth $2000, or roughly $1000 per hour. But our product has benefits even beyond saving O.R. time and money. As you will see it can lead to fewer surgical errors and better outcomes for a number of reasons. So that is one of the reasons why people see value in our product.”
I know you have addressed this in other presentations, but it was missing from the Noblecon presentation and I believe it is essential to get new investors interested in why our company is valuable. Keep up the good work. I am confident our investment will pay off handsomely over the next few years.
Re posting upcoming Friday(10-Feb-2017) Conference call details :
Comment Link: http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2017/01/noblecon13-live-blog/comment-page-5/#comment-4919911
Author: jimt47
Comment:
Please excuse the length of this message:
The conference call will be started by Dr. KSS on Friday, Feb. 10th at 12:00PM EST
Participant Instructions
1 Call your Dial-In Number: (712) 770-4063
2 Enter your Access Code: 850326 … followed by the # symbol
The Playback number is (712) 770-4475. It will be available for at least two weeks. I am trying to find out if the international numbers can be used to access the playback. Currently, I don’t believe it is possible.
International Dial-in Numbers
Albania
+355 4 454 1712
Argentina
+54 11 5031-9546
Australia
+61 2 4783 7110
Austria
+43 1 2650541
Belgium
+32 9 324 29 21
Brazil
+55 11 3042-5290
Bulgaria
+359 2 495 1721
Cambodia
+855 96 696 7883
Chile
+56 2 3210 9944
Colombia
+57 6 7334209
Costa Rica
+506 4090 1334
Croatia
+385 1 8000 131
Cyprus
+357 77 788687
Czech
+420 225 852 083
Denmark
+45 78 77 36 33
Dominican Republic
+1 829-999-2564
Estonia
+372 634 6274
Finland
+358 9 74791032
France
+33 1 78 90 06 94
GCC/Arabian Peninsula ***
+973 6500 9124
Georgia
+995 706 777 583
Germany
+49 209 88294442
Guatemala
+502 2458 1450
Hungary
+36 1 999 0542
Iceland
+354 539 0352
India
+91 7400 130 503
India
+91 172 519 9044
Ireland
+353 1 907 9721
Israel
+972 55-966-1103
Italy
+39 06 8997 1654
Japan
+81 3-5050-5114
Kenya
+254 20 5293281
Kosovo
+381 38 413923
Latvia
+371 67 881 973
Lithuania
+370 661 05790
Luxembourg
+352 20 30 16 53
Malaysia
+60 11-1146 0074
Mexico
+52 899 274 8860
Netherlands
+31 6 35205063
New Zealand
+64 7-974 6530
Nigeria
+234 1 440 5024
Norway
+47 73 79 03 14
Pakistan
+92 21 37132323
Panama
+507 833-6910
Poland
+48 22 116 85 63
Portugal
+351 21 114 3163
Romania
+40 31 780 7054
Russian Federation
+7 812 383-96-23
Slovakia
+421 2/333 252 03
Slovenia
+386 1 828 08 74
South Africa
+27 87 825 0172
South Korea
+82 70-7737-3405
Spain
+34 872 50 31 53
Sweden
+46 8 124 109 76
Switzerland
+41 43 550 70 82
Turkey
+90 212 988 1774
Ukraine
+380 94 710 5941
United Kingdom
+44 330 998 1261
United States
+1 712-770-4063
***This dial-in number is located in Bahrain
Playback for 2 weeks? That’s great. That means I should be able to listen using the playback number. I’ll give it a try. Thanks again!
To listen to the playback I was prompted for not only the access code – but also a reference code. Does anyone know where I can find that. Have been trawling through the Noblecon thread without any luck. I really would appreciate any help as I was midair on a transatlantic flight during the call;)
mtpoulsen enter a # when it asks for a code after you have entered the access code. Best2You
Also see this post by jim if you continue to have difficulty: http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2017/02/the-rest-of-the-12-biotechs-of-christmas/#comment-4920909
$AKAO $CTIX
A really fascinating read. I had no idea nano structures could be so effective in killing bacterium. And to top it, nature has been using these for thousands of years.
As Dr. KSS has discussed in the past, biofilms are the most dreaded conditions that are very very difficult to kill chemically. This new method solves that problem by not letting the bacteria come together and create the biofilm.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/next/body/physics-antibiotics
Some health departments hurried to rid butcher shops of wooden cutting blocks,,, to be replaced with stainless steel and pure white nylon. It turns out wood is more sanitary than the seemingly smooth nylon that is soon scarred with tiny cuts where bacteria hide beyond reach of disinfectants.
Wooden blocks have nano slivers that leave a fuzzy surface that kills bacteria. Rot resistant wood seems to use that method to keep from being eaten/rotting. Just different terms for bacterial attack. The first foot of soil is the fiercest jungle to survive in found anywhere,,, with all the competing life forms waging war.
But stainless is good.. so for your basic kitchen structure you want stainless. Chopping blocks I’m not sure.. I just know this from working at Wendy’s 40 years ago..
Stainless is easy to disinfect, unless you cut on it or etch the surface by wrong cleaning methods. Copper is actually better if kept
clean and shiny as it has bactericidal properties, as do wood surfaces. That is why centuries old European kitchens are often more sanitary than our modern fast food marvels. Our ancestors were perhaps smarter than we think?
Yes sir we agree.. No x files things ok ?
I would agree except for those who used heavy metal drinking and eating implements…Caligula being an example. He was a naughty boy.
ALL – NEW COLUMN, NEW THREAD. http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2017/02/the-rest-of-the-12-biotechs-of-christmas/ Wow!
Thank YOU ZKSS!
Just curious if Dr. KSS or any of you other knowledgeable readers have done any research on Pulmatrix. They have a proprietary delivery system for getting medicine directly into the lungs.
It’s mongrel science. Aerosolized or inhaled antibiotics are essentially topical antibiotics, and those have a bad way of not working, of not being efficacious. Airspace disease demands iv medication. I would be utterly ashamed to own $PULM.
Every few year, another inhaled antimicrobial company comes along. Thrill. Rush to embrace. Hmmm, THAT doesn’t work so well! Screw inhaled antimicrobials! Company folds. People forget. Rinse. Lather. Repeat. Been going on since 1980s.
Doc Once again proved true is the saying:
” Just because a thing may be done does not prove it is a good thing to do”
You have enough history behind you to give a perspective to news of the latest marvel and thereby keep us all balanced. Thank You
$AKAO
UPCOMING EVENT
Feb 16, 2017
2:30 PM ET
Leerink Partners 6th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
http://investors.achaogen.com/index.cfm
For company name on registration I used ,,, GS Invest.
You may wish to do same,,, or not. They also want a name and Email to send confirmation.
long $AKAO
Just like to say what a great privilege it has been to follow Dr.KSS, so entertained in the new investing field that you give so much useful knowledge on. And all the others also who converse with you.(gumies). This $tockGumshoe is just the best! P.S. And I would also be more than happy to help you in funds for your journeys and interviews and fact finding information rendezvous over the country.
No ticker, just thought for consideration. At times our best chemists and manufacturing ability cannot compete with what nature does routinely and efficiently.
http://news.mit.edu/2017/microbial-manufacturing-manus-bio-0203
Would manus bio bear watching for future?
Pardon me for shameless self promotion but I have started a new blog which may interest a few,,, and keep me from posting off topic so much in other blogs.
http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2017/02/microblog-arch1-science-trivia/
any topic or question allowed except personal attacks or not fitting on Travis website.
I warn that much will be my opinion, mostly science related.
Aid to understanding Hydrophobic/ hydrophilic or in the case of oils/fats lipophobic/lipophilic, each being an opposite in action.
Hydrophobic sand,,,,,,,,,
https://twitter.com/scienmag
If link doesn’t work try this;
https://www.reddit.com/r/gifs/comments/3ofqm1/hydrophobic_sand/
Billions spent, but Alzheimer’s cure elusive.
Layman’s discussion.
http://tinyurl.com/zuwxg4j
$CCXI – long on house’s money – news
Vifor Pharma and ChemoCentryx Announce Expansion of Avacopan Agreement for Rare Renal Diseases
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/vifor-pharma-chemocentryx-announce-expansion-120000140.html
New option to treat infections is in the works
Published on: February 17, 2017
Brian Sterenberg, chemistry professor at the University of Regina in lab
A chance conversation between a chemist and microbiologist two years ago has led to a discovery with enormous possibilities for mankind.
“In many cases, chemists don’t really talk that much to microbiologists,” said Brian Sterenberg, a University of Regina chemist. “We were just discussing antibiotics and antibiotic resistance, and we came up with the idea of looking at a new area of chemistry and looking for antibiotics there.”
The interdisciplinary team of researchers from the U of R and the University of Saskatchewan has created a potent new synthetic antibiotic that is effective in lab research against several drug-resistant pathogens.
Sterenberg is excited about the discovery because antibiotic resistance is a huge issue.
“Next to global climate change, it’s probably the biggest problem facing mankind,” he said.
The research was recently published in the online journal Scientific Reports.
According to the researchers, the breakthrough means the group of synthetic compounds have great potential “to provide new chemical architectures for the development of next-generation antibiotics” and to “regain some ground on the antibiotic resistance problem.”
“The majority of molecules are either a molecule naturally occurring in nature — so usually what they are is they are molecules made by microbes to fight other microbes — … but others are synthetic molecules that people have made but are patterned after naturally occurring molecules,” he said. “What is unique about ours is that there are no naturally occurring molecules that are anything like this molecule we have made.”
The idea was that the synthetic molecule would be so new that naturally occurring molecules will not have developed natural defence mechanisms against this new molecule.
Sterenberg said once his team was able to synthesize a molecule, it was handed over to the next team for testing.
U of R microbiologist John Stavrinides and his team took the synthetic molecule and tested against other microbes, which proved successful.
The team found the antibiotic compound to be effective against methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) which causes infections that can be life-threatening if left untreated, and vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus (VRE), bacteria which live in the human intestine and urinary tract, are often found in the environment, and are resistant to the antibiotic vancomycin.
These are among those dubbed “ESKAPE” pathogens because they pose a serious threat to human health through repeated emergence, but have the ability to escape antibiotic treatment.
Before announcing their findings, the team needed to find out if the new molecule was safe for humans.
Jane Alcorn, U of S professor of pharmacy, tested the antibiotic, which does not appear to be toxic to mice when given orally.
Sterenberg said this discovery opens up a whole new avenue of research.
“I am really hoping, with this (discovery), is to motivate other people to start looking for antibiotics in new places,” he said.
Sterenberg said it will take many years before this new antibiotic is available to humans, but he hopes the research will continue because such research has great potential to positively impact humans.
kbenjoe@postmedia.co
Isn’t this just like Cellceutix’s defensin mimetic Brilacidin?
Scorp—-I kept reading wanting a revelation of mechanism of action. Technically, to be really like brilacidin, it would need to burst a hole in each Gram positive coccus.
For those who pay meta-attention to the threads, I think you will notice that approximately every 2 weeks for the life of the biotech thread we’ve had a news item from somewhere about the advent or discovery of unknown new groups of antibiotics. And I am not dissing any one for posting the news. Just keep in mind, it’s news only in a relative sense: there are orders of magnitude more antimicrobial substances out there in nature than we have discovered and are using. We will continue to discover them as long as there is life on earth as nature continuously devises new ones.
This is an example of pop-science non-science. “Years away from application” is the take away. Many, many, many
chemicals are anti biotic in the sense that they are toxic to the organism. Salt (NaCl) and sugar are but two old examples.
We need substances which kill pathogens in vivo, not just in vitro. Almost any strong acid or alkali is toxic to pathogens in vitro but cannot be used in vivo. Strong oxidizers the same.
When bio similars are produced,,, as they are now,,, they are a synthetic formulation of some compound of elements into molecules done in nature. It is not a battle of molecules vs molecules, what is needed is a formulation of something that stops, eliminates growth of pathogens without undue toxicity to the one needing cure. Thankyou for posting . We need be aware of how much passes for science that cannot be duplicated or produced. IMO
$AKAO
Hi all–I am two weeks into stockgumshoe and come to you with a question of valuation of AKAO.
I bought into AKAO with a position before data release of EPIC AND CARE and one at market open that quickly bloated to an extremely overweight position in my portfolio. Like Doc says, buy and forget about it, but I am now at a predicament as AKAO makes up 40% of my portfolio.
I want to open up a discussion on how to value AKAO because:
-I see gummies here have price targets significantly higher than the current SP
-The current SP is up considerably and has good news baked in (appropriately)
-From my research, antibiotics companies have historically been valued differently than other biotechs
We all know it is difficult to value companies especially pre-commercialization biotechs. Historically 3-5x peak sales estimates is what is seen in biotech buyouts (Pharmacyclics 5x, Celator 4x). In one of the more recent antibiotic company buyouts, Trius Therapeutics was purchased for 707M. Jason Napodano, a now respected smid cap biotech analyst had a peak sales estimate of 750M for this company (Source 1-2), while others had 200-350 million. This buyout angered many investors as they thought the price was too low. To appease certain speculators, companies create contingent value rights that pay out in the future. 2016 sales of Sivextro were released and alas the CVR did not pay out; sales were 14M in ’16, not exceeding the 125M threshold [Source 3]).
At the same time, Optimer was purchased for 535M even though a Barron’s article proclaimed peak sales estimates of Dificid between 500M-1.5B (Source 4). Granted, consensus estimates were in the 250M range.
I lay out these two examples to show antibiotics companies are valued differently than other biotech companies. There are a variety of reasons for this but the examples above are showing a multiple of about 2x peak sales. Based on Doc’s 500M sales estimate, the current SP is already almost valuing the company at 1B and Doc has said the company likely will try to run without an immediate sale.
Can anyone comment on how they came to a higher price target? What flaws/feedback do I have in my analysis? Thanks for any discussion.
1. http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/trius-therapeutics-tedizolid-pfizer-zyvox-cubicin/12/27/2011/id/38572
2.http://s1.q4cdn.com/460208960/files/Nov%207,%202012_TSRX_Buy%20Trius%20Ahead%20Of%20Pivotal%20Phase%203%20Data%20Expected%20Early%202013_Napodano_v001_u094b8.pdf
3. http://s21.q4cdn.com/488056881/files/doc_downloads/other/Trius-CVR-FAQ-2.2.17-(1).pdf
4. http://seekingalpha.com/article/259928-optimer-pharma-prime-acquisition-target
Disclosure: Long $AKAO
Join the discussion on the new thread, over here:
http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2017/02/the-rest-of-the-12-biotechs-of-christmas/
Should I repost in that thread? I read the rules of the forum but this thread came up first in my AKAO search so that threw me off.
Yeah, you’d probably get more eyes on it. Everyone usually moves to the most recent article.
This discussion has been closed to additional comments. The conversation has moved over to Dr. KSS’s latest article, which can be found at the top of the list on his Stock Gumshoe page.