written by reader jim Rickards BIG AUstralian Short–whats he doing?

By paulinoz, February 9, 2017

Hello all.
I have been bombarded by Jim Rickards promos now especially heavily over the last 3 months–courtesy of some of my subs to Port Philip Publishing eg Daily Reckoning (same end-of -days articles for last 30 years) and a few other stock specific things eg Small Cap Investigator etc.
Here are some excerpts from the promo–I mean who wouldn’t want to rush and get stuck right into it and get mega-rich before it disappears?
———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
”A staggering — almost-overnight — personal payday ranging from 353% to 590%
could be on the table
Just be prepared for nastiness if anyone
finds out you placed this bet…
This service — which utilises Jim’s proprietary IMPACT system — has just green-lit a new and, I have to say, extraordinary trade.
I’ve only seen anything like it once before…
The person who made THAT trade made so much money from it, a broker once called to remind him he had an account with $5 million left in it. He’d become so mind-bogglingly wealthy from this one trade, $5 million was barely worth thinking about.
A comparable trade set-up may have just presented itself here in Australia. And you don’t need to be a high-flying hedge fund manager or millionaire investor to take advantage.
But timing is crucial.
In fact you only have until midnight, 28 February 2017 to get this trade on. Here are the details…
The bet I’m going to propose to you now is on the biggest Australian economic event in 26 years.
Do you have the gumption to make a concentrated bet against Australia?
On the proviso that this bet is loaded with the potential to make you a three-percentage-digit return in months?
If such moral dilemmas when it comes to investing tend to make you squeamish, you may want to stop reading now.
Question #2:
Does this involve FX or Forex trading?

Answer: This service will use a combination of trading instruments. But it will involve CFDs on stocks, indices, commodities, and foreign exchange. The IMPACT system gives traders the potential to profit from currency moves and trends without trading currencies. We will NOT be recommending trades or advice on the Forex Exchange.
If you’re an experienced share trader, or even if you’ve just dabbled in the odd trade here or there, it’s likely that you already have the ability to trade using the IMPACT system.
—————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
All you have to do is give Jim AUD$1499.00 for 12 months( $1999.00 for 2 years =”good deal”!!)–and you will be sitting on pretty on a huge cash pile..allegedly..oh they forgot to tell you that the other multi-thousand ”all-inclusive ” subs didn’t include this one…and no doubt the next one..and so on….
Does anyone know what he is proposing?–it seems to involve put/calls CFDs Currencies/ ETFs in some witches brew devised by Jim–oh and don’t forget the constant CIA references –that adds something –Im not sure what..
Seeing as it doesnt matter how much money you give these operators, there is always another big $ must-have subscription that they forgot to mention–I am wondering if anyone in Gumshoedom has any idea what they are touting now
As usual I cant help wondering why Mr Rickards isn’t running his own trading enterprise from his luxury yacht in wherever and enjoying being rich as Croesus –why worry with plebs like us??
I would be SO interested to find out the trade he is touting–and its subsequent success–or not….

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.

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John in OZ
3 years ago

Hey Paul,
John in Oz, Jim’s latest appears to involve shorting an Aussie Bank, quote
“New developments have convinced Jim’s team that Australia’s gigantic housing bubble is finally on the verge of popping — the only question is the timing.

One bank, for a variety of reasons, is particularly prone. In fact, it’s already showing stress. Its growing weaknesses, as the alert put it yesterday, are an ‘ominous sign of things to come.” and “And they’ve found a way to place a ‘short position’ against this bank right now. Without using options, or even leverage.”
My gut feel is that he’s using CFDs to short an Aussie Bank in the ASX 200. Quite possible to be a big 4 (likely Westpac, due to its bigger exposure to aussie residential lending through its wholly-owned subs like St George, BOMelb, Bank SA) or most likely Regional Bank like Bank QLD, Bendigo or Suncorp)
He’s putting all his eggs in the “Australia will be in official recession” basket come March 1st (when Dec Quarter Aussie GDP figures are released by the ABS at 0130GMT 1130AEDST). Most economists expect a modest (even 0.1%) rise in GDP. Rickards is “betting” on the newspaper headlines creating havoc if the number is even negative 0.1%, you know “First time in 26 years in RECESSION” etc. He’s backing it as his third (or fourth, I forget) upset, you know he called the Brexit vote, Trump president win, now Aussie recession. He hopes it leads to an aussie home price mini-collapse, job losses,etc enough to stuff the banks ability to turn a reasonable profit on their trillions lent to home-buyers esp investors, he hopes they all head for the exit at the same time. My opinion they won’t in any meaningful way, there might be a small blip of a downturn, but onward home prices will move up, albeit at nowhere near the rate of the past 4.5 years (70% in Sydney) more like 2-5%pa for 2-3 yrs. No-one wants to sell out of the Sydney market, the main reason for the lack of listings that Sydney Real estate Agents are whining about. If you do sell, its bloody tough to buy another before prices have moved up on you!!

Hope this helps, but I’m not willing to stump up $1500 for his advice, although I have stumped up $5 for his books The Big Drop and The New Case for Gold, both interesting reading, but gotta take it with a grain of salt. Asked for my subscription money back before 30 days, and they cheerfully refunded it.PPP at least is run honestly, they are a business that just offers something for every differrent-opinioned investor ie they cover all the bases, to maximise THEIR membership numbers (and thus income). Each author must pay a certain % of revenue (high% I bet) to PPPublishing. The more that subscribe the more each and PPP make, simple internet math, he’s already done the hard-work/investigation, he just needs to sell it to as many mugs as possible.

My gut feel is he’s shorting either Westpac WBC or Bendigo BAB

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Ben
Ben
3 years ago
Reply to  John in OZ

Hello John, I agree he is shorting a bank. I thought they hinted some where it was one of the big 4. But I believe it could be Bendigo as they have the most exposure to home loans in % compared to there other loans.
We may see -.01 growth. So yes technically a recession , But the media will over report and exaggerate only because we have not had one for 26 years. And it is really not such a big deal, But with over negative reporting by the media it could get blown out of proportion. And as 99% of folks are not even aware that we just had one negative quarter, They may be shocked to find out we are in recession.

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