by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | March 3, 2017 3:41 pm
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2017/03/friday-file-inevitable-collapse-and-the-story-of-progress/
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Man, what a GREAT read! Am I ever glad I somehow discovered your service recently. Am a Cdn on vacation in Florida too for a couple of weeks. The heat gets the ol’ brain cells moving, “eh”?
Welcome to our Red White and Blue cousin. Red maple leaf, GreatWhite north and as result Bluenose. Florida sunshine
sounds appealing as I wait for snow tonight.
Travis, stop going on vacation. Buy happy books!
Good advice! And I think MacDonald’s books are plenty happy — though I’m also a sucker for Richard Stark and the hardboiled pulp of the 60s and 70s.
I just want to get a Hippopotamsue for Christmas.
The Great Depression Statistics http://www.shmoop.com This is a interesting read if you like history.
Got to ask… A POGO REFERENCE? You’re way to young man! But I like it! Best, most intelligent Sunday comic of all time.
Walt Kelly,,, Unique, as are we all. Gone nearly 44 years but not forgotten. rip pogo.
In that Pogo picture, the characters are Spiro Agnew, John Mitchel, and J. Edgar Hoover, along with Pogo Possum. I was reading one of the Pogo collections from 1960 about 6 months ago, with Khrushchev, the congo crisis, and the russian missile program — nothing like Pogo. And an outstanding article by Travis, along with a couple mutual funds I would never have stumbled upon save this article. Thank you.
Great article Travis! Notes from the Omaha Oracle was a definite plus.
Regards,
Frank
Thank you for the read. I greatly enjoyed it.
I’m just glad that I could survive without the luxuries in todays world. Thanks to my Army training schools. Travis got me thinking while I was reading his article. Could another depression happen in these modern times? So I did some research on what the economy was like back then. I had a little typical knowledge. Soup lines, no jobs, misery of all sorts . I found this link and it gave statistics of the economics back during the great depression. This is the link if anyone has wondered about the economic condition in those days. http://www.shmoop.com/great-depression/statistics.html
Hi Travis: I have always loved your writing style and your articles but you outdid yourself with this one. I’m going to bookmark this page and read it every time I go into panic mode & decide to sell one of my “good” companies.
A wonderful read.
Thanks.
Agree, one of the best o maybe the best article imho…Well done Travis!!
Did you know that john MacDonald left notes for the final Travis McGee book, it was to have ‘black’ in the title. He wanted Mickey Spillane or Stephen King to finish it if he could not. The family wont authorize it because they are afraid that if its no good it will kill off the franchise.
I echo the others -such a great read. btw, Travis McGee’s creator not only the most descriptive writer , but penned one of the funniest reads ever- The girl, the gold watch & everything. A must read for you Travis.
DUDE! Kudos! My time well spent. Thanks!
Wonderful! I will keep and re-read this article. Thanks, Travis.
Travis,
Your mention of call option on $PVG caused me to look for your portfolio listing and could not find link. Please advise. I really need help on options. Would like to take long dated option positions in promising resource investments. Would a discussion on options be appropriate, ok, for this service?
Your service is the most valuable and lowest price available. You are helping so many investors. Keep up the good work. I believe greatest good in life is helping people. “You are a STAR”!!!!
Got excited then tried to buy DSEEX but disappointed there was a $100,000 minimum. Not quite ready for that.
That will depend quite a bit on your broker and your account type — if using an IRA, it’s actually a $5,000 minimum. If outside an IRA or your broker doesn’t have any better bargain to offer you, there is also a separate “retail” class of the fund that has a higher expense ratio (0.89 instead of 0.64, I believe) and a much lower minimum ($2,000 for any account, or $500 for an IRA). Depending on whether you buy direct through DoubleLine (which is a little old fashioned, they don’t seem to have online account applications but you can fill out a form and send in a check or set up automatic investments) or use a broker, there may be fees or other restrictions.
The $100k minimum is not a ‘smaller’ allocation for me.
It’s $5,000 for an IRA, or $2,000 for the slightly more expensive N-class shares (or the cheapest option, $500 for N-class shares in an IRA).
Thanks Travis, I was thinking the same thing! I’m very impressed with Gundlach and his team. If it was up to me I would put all my money in Biotech and gold. Thankfully I have a wife that says oh no Travis says this…. I made a lot of money shorting gold until recently I didn’t . I got stuck in a losing position. I studied the cot report and this and that and thought I figured it out! Point is no one knows. The trend was gold down and its moving down again, but as soon as you think you have it figured out you don’t. Gold moves to the wimps of the big boys. If they want it to move it will move. Thats why long and steady investments and good strong companies always win.
I find IOT my favorite investing arena so many different areas to invest in changing at lighting speed.
It is always amazing to read Warren Buffet and if you read what his father was standing for 100% opposite, Howard hated this fiat system. Warren benefited very much from the Fed /fraktional banking system to create more credit/debth.
I cannot be so positive even if I try for the economic future of the world. Really
I hate to be the messenger of negative news related to the global economy but we
are really in a epic mess and a reset is already discussed in most important capitals around the globe. This 0% or even negative intrest rate set by many central banks
is creating millions of poor ppl around the world. Just look at the EU what is happening their, many countries are in dire straits with their finances, so are companies and private ppl. Govt in the west are now actively buying with (stolen) tax money shares to keep the stock markets elivated.
When the borrower goes broke so will be the lender and the numbers are mind blogging. When the reset comes we all 99.9% will be capital starved. Never forget
banks can close for months/years and your investments will be trapped. We simply can,t create real wealth by printing more money and create more unlimited debth.
That is why Warren really lost his touch with reality but he won,t be there to see the future of course.
I not even mentioned the energy situation globally which will hit the financial markets like an earthquake when we finally realise the seriousness of our fantasy
frankenstein economics.
I still hope and I am convinced that new and better technology will lead us the way,
if we can in the process abolish central banks globally so that these parasites will need to find a real employment we can see a bright future. Central banking/fraktional banking created all this mega wealth for the happy 0.001 %. Not really a fair deal for rest of population.
Everyone’s entitled to an opinion, and your view has plenty of logic to it — but it has effectively that same logic in 1980… so I’d always urge folks to be mindful about investing based on that pessimism.
I agree with your view so we will have to wait and see and wait for the coming future, this period reminds me of the roaring 20,s all was great and well till
the music stopped playing….
Me, too — but that doesn’t mean it’s going to play out like the 20s did (or that it won’t)… it means we have story-seeking brains that are looking for a narrative that feels right. Those stories aren’t always wrong… but they’re sure not always right, either, and the real world brings huge opportunity costs for those who worry too often or too deeply.
Looking back in the past can sometimes be helpful but sometimes entirely irrelevant as well. Comparing the 1980’s predicament to now is a little of a stretch considering the world of negative interest rates however – it might be helpful to have a longer horizon when comparing cycles, monetary history, end of Rome/Empires etc. I do agree with you that probably everyone is partly right and mostly wrong. Also, imo when you factor in the law of exponentials then this things happen slow towards the end theory is just not true….towards the last final stages of anything they in fact happen very very very fast. Stay aware and prepared always.
I don’t disagree… but remember, consensus was high in 2009 that we had passed that exponential peak, and again in 2011 and 2013. Caution is always a good idea, but that sentiment can also make millions of people run scared from the stock market at just the wrong moment. Many were terrified in 2009 and still haven’t gotten back into the market since, partly because of prophecies of doom — missing a few years of a bull market damages your long-term returns in a big way… even just missing a handful of the best market days turns a long-term gain into a long-term loss.
None of this means that we should all buy and hold everything forever, or that caution is foolish — it just means that we should be careful not to overestimate our ability to predict the future.
I started casually following the markets as a young man back in the 80’s – then & now there has always been a certain contingent giving the advice that can be simplistically summed up as, “Sell everything, horde gold, buy a gun, get a cabin in the woods & await the end.” The vast majority of my portfolio is comprised of quality dividend paying stocks. I sell when I think it’s time for profit taking, or I see underlying changes that concern me in the particular business I’m invested in. I have zero faith in the people that present themselves as the latest “Financial Nostradamus”. I sat on my hands in 2008-2009 while I watched several acquaintances panic sell. They locked in losses while my hand sitting has paid off handsomely, & I believe will continue to do so over the long haul. Vigilance & knowledge are the keys to successful investing.
Hi Travis, Great article and very informative as usual. Regarding $DSEEX and $DSEUX, as you mentioned $DSEUX has predominant European exposure. Have you found a similar product that provides true International exposure to potential undervalued markets? Med Faber has 2 ETFs ($GVAL and $GMOM) that he seems to believe will strongly give good exposure to momentum and value plays on an International level. I was wondering if you had thoughts on either of them?
Thanks for all you do.
(personal disclosure: NP in $DSEEX, $DSEUX, $GVAL, $GMOM)
The Global X Scientific Beta ETFs are interesting, though even newer (2015, I think) — the US one has trailed, but the three international ones (SCID, SCIJ, SCIX) have beaten their benchmarks since inception by a little bit. Those are also “better mousetrap” smart indexes, my concern is that they may be more complicated than is worthwhile… though they at least aren’t expensive. I haven’t looked at those two Cambria ETFs you mention in detail, but do generally like Meb Faber’s way of thinking.
Travis,
Is there a list of your personal mutual fund holdings similar to your personal stock holdings?
Not specifically, though I write about them sometimes. I could probably add that — some I currently am invested in, aside from indexes, are DSEEX, DSEUX, DODGX, POGRX, VWELX, and VDIGX
Recently spent a few days on Lido Key and I too had to take a drive up to Longboat Key, as J.D. M. and his roguish protagonist were favorites of mine. Hope you came back rested and ready to keep us both entertained, as well as educated. Your columns are greatly appreciated.
Hello Travis,
Old member back from many surguries,
it’s great reading your stuff again. It probably doesn’t pay many bills to put your advertisers through the ringer so as much as l would like to hear it l will assume we are not going to hear about Charles Sizemore’s
“Peak Income Research Service” any time in the near future. I will go with the old if it sounds too good to be true philosophy and let that one go.
How about Agora’s “Gold that a reflection from a certain kind of light makes a red liquid a protocol that is a nano particle medicine that blows up cancer cells.”
I bet you could or already have had a hayday with that one ?
Please put that one on your list for me, l would like to hear you do your thing.
Thanks, CRS
Welcome back!
Many of the big newsletter publishers have advertised with us from time to time, We outsource our ad selection so that I won’t be subconsciously tempted to favor advertisers in my editorial coverage… though that Sizemore ad doesn’t sound familiar so I probably haven’t covered it.
The goofy “red liquid” pitch I did cover a while back, you can find that here: http://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews/fda-trader/whats-the-gold-cured-my-cancer-ad-all-about/