Friday File: IPO’s, Conversions, and the Watchlist (and one sale)
by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | March 24, 2017 4:56 pm
I sold an income investment, what are we looking for in the weeks ahead?
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2017/03/friday-file-ipos-conversions-and-the-watchlist-and-one-sale/
How do you find the date of a company’s IPO (e: PSCB FINANCIAL) ?
You find out when they announce it, usually, many brokers keep a running list of scheduled IPOs but the dates can shift. No date has been announced for that one by the company or its bankers yet.
This one will list on Nasdaq, so presumably once scheduled it will also pop up on the list here: http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/ipos/activity.aspx?tab=upcoming
Cheers
Travis
Two questions- (great article as usual). What if a person becomes an account holder at the mutual, then takes action to buy the shares. Does that work?
Alterra – there is a sericous discussion of IPP’s (Independent Power Producers contracts in Canada, and a desire to reduce the prices paid, since some of the utilities over-forecast need, “overbought”, and electricity use has declined, yet power is now being bought that is not needed. What about RNW:TO – (Transalta Renwables) it pays 5.6% dividend? THX RB
Yes, but you generally have to be an account holder before the conversion is announced… and for first preference, often a year or so before the conversion is announced. For a while there were investors who would open up $100 accounts at dozens or hundreds of mutual savings banks just to get in on a conversion if it eventually happened, but a lot of banks have taken steps to discourage that with higher account limits or local address requirements or other impediments (and, of course, some of those banks never converted). You definitely can’t open an account after the conversion process has started, they all block that (I think the PCSB account opening cutoff is September 2015, for example, before they started the process of conversion, which takes a year or so at minimum, though I’d have to double check to be sure).
Oh, and thanks for the perspective on PPAs, hadn’t seen any detail on that.
Thank you Travis.
However, Disney’s market cap is not $120 billion. As per Morningstar, Disney has a market cap of $177 billion.
Cheers!
Just to give you some perspective you had to be an account holder on or before Sept 2015. I think they announced conversion in Nov 2016.
Thank you Travis. Just quick question…when you recommend a position ( ie PVG option ) when PVG start first pour the stock & option will start jump. When do you suggest to take your profit ?
Some analyst said PVG has target of $15 to $20…please reply. Thanks
Hi Travis,
Where do you find out about mutuals’ registrations, so you can know to look out for their IPOs? Is there a way besides an EDGAR search by S-1?
Cheers,
MC
Hi Travis, I am a newcomer to Gumshoe. What is your opinion on NAK? It has pulled back recently from some speculative bad press from a short “star”, but I feel that soon the EPA may clear the Pebble project, and the stock could potentially soar. Curious as to your thoughts? Thanks!
I still have a small position in NDM warrants (NDM is the Canadian ticker for Northern Dynasty), and I agree that there’s a chance the EPA will either drop their block on the permitting or lose in court. If Northern Dynasty does indeed get cleared to proceed with the permitting process, which would take several years, it’s quite possible that they could get a big miner to partner with them at that point, which could, depending on the deal, be positive for Northern Dynasty’s stock price. The real catalysts I see as possible this year are a return to the “normal” permitting process, and a possible partnership deal that could be a billion-plus dollar commitment, and I do think there’s a possibility for the stock to pop up by a couple hundred percent if they get good news on those fronts.
The risk, of course, will come in what you consider the odds to be. This is not really a “fundamental” investment — we don’t know what the production of the mine might be because we don’t know what the permitting process, if it begins, will allow for in terms of mine size and location, and we’ll need to get updated numbers about what kind of capital investment would be required to build the mine. You can’t say, with a straight face, that the company is definitely worth $500 million or $5 billion, there are too many unanswered questions.
So what you’re doing here, really, is either closing your eyes and holding for a while with the hopes that the massive size of the deposit will lead to some kind of good outcome and a large and profitable mine in ten years… or you’re betting that the market will get more excited about the potential when good news comes, and you’ll sell then. I’m in the latter camp, I have already taken a lot of profit off the table after the huge post-Trump rally in NDM/NAK shares, but I’ve left a part of my speculation on the table because I think there’s a decent chance, though probably less than a 50% chance, that the stock could rise dramatically on positive news over the next six months, and that there is a pathway to this becoming a dramatically larger company if gold and copper are rising, they move out of the courts and through to permitting, and they get a strong partner in to help them push through the permitting process. Depending on the day and how much coffee I’ve had, I’d probably assign that a probability somewhere in the 10-30% range over the next year and a half, so for me that’s worth a small speculation on the warrants — a 10% chance of a 500% or 1,000% gain in a short period of time might be appealing for a speculation, as long as the 90% chance of a 100% loss reminds you to keep your position sizing under control.
Thank you very much for your insights and comments! Much appreciated. I too think there is a decent chance that the stock could rise, as I believe that the permitting process will be able to go forward. If gold will resume its rise, it’s worth the risk with a speculative position.