Friday File — Real Money Update, Watchlist, and more
by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | April 14, 2017 6:09 pm
Notes on Skyworks, Orocobre, Shopify, Blackbird Energy, NI Holdings, Northern Dynasty, and Qualcomm, among others
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2017/04/friday-file-real-money-update-watchlist-and-more/
Great Writeup!
QCOM at a great price but just to many negative headlines, they are probably one of few 5G stocks on top . Like SWKS another top 5G . TMUS spent a lot $’s on FCC broadcast incentive auction. 5G private broadcast lines will be working around 2020. Wonder if TMUS will hook up with Dish and Spectrum ( X-Charter Comunnications) And do like T, VZ, and Direct other than the future right now to plan for. Link on FCC $19.8 Billion below http://www.commlawmonitor.com. EV’s filling stations, and will EV makers will undercut Tesla? Wonder what N.Korea & U.S. will do if they do nuke test or test rockets? Great thaught provoking article Travis!
EV Revolution is around the corner check out link on Lot78’s juice bar and go to new car dealerships and see the hybrid and 100% EV’s on the car lot’s. Here is a interesting insight Link on LOTE- http://www.dailystockpicks.net/lote/?gclid=CL_RiLjkodMCFQsbaQodp3ABCw#
Not saying that Blackbird won’t go up based on people falling for the pump job by Katusa, et al, and it may be undervalued, but that is the case for a lot of the e&p companies (Lone Star Resources, Callon Petroleum, Parsley Energy, Range Resources, Gulfport Energy, to name a few I own). However, comparing the Montney to the Eagle Ford much less the Permian is laughable. Eagle Ford alone is estimated to have 10 billion barrels of oil recoverable today as well as a lot of nat gas and ngl. Permian is multiples of that. And the Eagle Ford and Permian are oil-rich which is much more valuable than ng and ngls. Montney prices for ng and ngls will likely stay relatively low for quite a long time because they don’t have sufficient pipeline infrastructure to transport the gas. The hopes for construction of several Canadian LNG plants to drive demand and justify significantly more pipelines seem to be fading as the world already has too much LNG capacity available and coming online soon.
Fair points, the big argument is for LNG going into the oil sands, where prices are still quite high — but that depends on high oil prices to make oil sands expansion worthwhile.
And yes, it is really about natural gas prices, in the end, though I’m encouraged by the development and land buying activity surrounding Blackbird’s focus area, but it will surely go poorly if prices don’t cooperate — and even if prices are good, quite a lot has to go well for them to grow cash flow enough to inflate the share price. Still, a charismatic and promotional CEO can go a long way when you’re trying to build a company… should at least be interesting, and hopefully premium condensate prices will hold up for long enough to generate some profits.
Oil sands are not worth the extra work. In my humble opinion. With oil standard being what gold use to be the gold standard. Investigate electricity I just wonder what the OPEC nations are going to do. What is Russia to do their top money producer oil and natual gas and Weapons sales to all terrorist groups and Countries like Syria, Iran, Yeman etc. Will do? Link- http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/040414/how-russia-makes-its-money-and-why-it-doesnt-make-more.asp Link- http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/040414/how-russia-makes-its-money-and-why-it-doesnt-make-more.asp
Regarding NAK, my understanding is that the land permit they received was only to clean up things for environmental compliance, not for any type of exploration related work. If that is the case, then they seem to really be desperate trying to spin this into a significant positive news release. Maybe you or someone else has good information to counter my understanding.
No, that’s pretty much true — nothing is expected near term, this is just permits to keep doing what they’re doing (and cleaning up after themselves). Still, it’s not a rejection, so the search for light at the end of the tunnel gets a little hope.
Here is an article I have just written on Shopify:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4062262-shopify-overvalued-take-profits
Northern Dynasty retrenched to 1.64 Friday—— Etrade has so many predatory Plaintiff law firms posting reminders on the NAK site that I now see “the law firm of Vincent Wong”in my sleep.
I was an early investor in Orocobre years ago and made some nice returns before selling, now I again have it on my buy list and plan on putting in a “stink bid” below market hoping to pick up dome shares at a bargain from somebody desperate to sell for whatever reason. I have several other stakes in lithium companies in which my number one pick is Nemaska Lithium NMX which is already up over 110% y/y and I believe still has much further to run given its proven resources and excellent management team. That being said, I think lithium has been over hyped in spite of its rise in price because in the ion-battery component picture it is the smallest item, the #1 requirement is cobalt and I have at least 3 not well known companies too profile shortly. Even graphite/carbon will be in even more demand than lithium, and possibly even manganese where I also have some speculative positions.
I have also been tracking Blackbird Energy for some time and actually talked to the CEO personally and while I agree with Travis that he is a bit of a promoter, I think with good reason. Mr..Braun is also a great manager with a proven development strategy, and while the Monteney field may not be as large as the Permian or Eagle Ford, it is very rich and productive with fewer players to choose from, and for my money, Blackbird is the best bet even though it is at this point more of a speculation than an investment. I have no problem with that because I am at this point more of a speculator in up and coming owner/operators than an investor in mature companies. I had heard rumours that Marin Katusa was a major investor in Blackbird and was able to confirm that at PDAC a month ago when I bumped into him and introduced myself and talked to him for awhile. Many see him as a promoter, but my impression is that he is a very good analyst and does his homework and then puts his money where his mouth is. I doubt that he invests BIG BUCKS in stocks he hasn’t thoroughly vetted and believes in and then trusts he can promote the stock sufficiently to raise the price so he can bail out, he is in for the long haul prospects of the companies he backs with his own money.
I also have a few hundred shares of Northern Dynasty as a speculation as I am convinced that the richness of this deposit will under Trump’s presidency have a good shot at getting permitted, and while I have not yet re-invested in Novagold, it could possibly move ahead as well IF the permitting of NDM moves ahead on relaxation of EPA rulings, so hopefully Trump will take action soon to allow these northern developments where the jobs are needed..