GOLD AND SILVER AND HARD ASSETS…SUMMER 2017

By hendrixnuzzles, July 3, 2017

Pretium Resources $PVG announced on July 3 that commercial production has been achieved at Brucejack.
That achievement makes a nice breakpoint for a new thread continuation on hard assets, which I introduce herewith.
This thread is a continuation of threads posted previously by the author on gold and silver and hard asset investments. It incorporates the changes that have occurred in my outlook
since January. Most of the companies I am long have been subject to lengthy due diligence and discussion, which you can find on prior threads.

PURPOSE My intent is to find and discuss good hard asset and commodity ideas. The thread is aimed at those who share the same general outlook. I favor royalty companies, developers, small to mid-cap miners, and explorers. I am wary of big-cap miners, ETFs, and indexes. I am strongly influenced by the leadership and management of the companies under discussion.

I am a believer in the concept of optionality as propounded by Rick Rule. And remember that as investments, in general, MINERS SUCK. We are looking for those that suck the least and have the most upside, or speculations we believe have the best chances of appreciating. My favorite jurisdictions are Canada and Australia, but I will look at sketchy neighborhoods like Turkey, DRC and Mongolia and speculate there if I think the story is compelling. I am also a big fan of Robert Friedland and I believe there is a technological materials and commodity revolution taking place, which subject is also best suited to the other thread: Scandium, Cobalt, and Water Purification: CleanTeQ Holdings.

My outlook for the sectors (excluding scandium and the rare earth battery metal complex) is as follows:

GOLD AND SILVER INVESTMENTS…Precious metals remain a focus on this thread. I believe that gold and silver prices have been and continue to be a target of manipulation and price suppression by powerful groups, including and especially governments and central banks. I take these suppressive actions to be a reality and part of the landscape. It is pointless to cry about it, but instructive to observe what is happening.

I believe these efforts will eventually fail, but they can visit havoc on prices and values in the meantime and keep prices artificially low for long periods. But not forever.
Meanwhile I will maintain my positions in the sector and lookfor the very best speculations and investments in it.

So I am still bullish and gold and silver investments for the long-term, although the proportion of them in my investments in my stock portfolio is being reduced somewhat.
That proportion is still probably much higher than that of most readers.

My gold/silver longs are:

Miners, even though miners suck: $PVG Pretium Resources, $MAG Mag Silver
Royalty/streamers: $WPM Wheaton Precious Metals, $SAND Sandstorm Gold. Was long $FNV but did not like their recent shift to gain exposure to oil and gas, so I am out.
Developers: $SA Seabridge, $BCEKF Bear Creek, $KNTNF K92 Mining
Exploration speculations: $CNRIF Condor, $ERDCF Erdene Resource Development, $KVLQF Kivalliq Energy, $CLASF Colorado Resources
Physical and redeemables: I hold physical in non-numismatic gold and silver, and I am long $PSLV.

COPPER, ZINC, NICKEL…I am bullish and welcome discussion of tickers in these commodities. My only long at the moment is Ivanhoe Mines, $IVPAF.
$IVPAF has some political and jurisdiction risk in DRC, and minor exposure in South Africa; so I think introduction of other ideas is of benefit.

SCANDIUM, COBALT, and WATER PURIFICATION: Please revert to my thread devoted to this. Discussion of battery technology and mining technology is best posted on that thread.
My conviction pick/stock speculation here is $CTEQF, CleanTeQ Holdings, which has its own thread.

LITHIUM: I am long Galaxy Resources but I am not terribly excited by the lithium space as a commodity play;
discussion of lithium and batteries should be on the other thread Scandium, Cobalt, and Water Purification: CleanTeQ Holdings.

PLATINUM GROUP METALS (PGM) Fair game for thread discussion.
My only long is Ivanhoe Mines IVPAF, which is mainly a copper/zinc stock.

DIAMONDS I have very small positions in Lucara and Lupara, they are diamond mining speculations.

URANIUM…I’m bullish but the choices seem pretty limited. My top three investment-grade choices are Cameco first, then Cameco second, or my third pick would be Cameco. After that, you are speculating on small caps, or buying ETFS or funds comprised of Cameco and some small caps. At the moment, I am long $CCJ Cameco and UEC as a high-leverage speculation.

POTASH/FERTILIZER…very interested because it is at the intersection of food and mining, but no position at present. Ideas welcome.

AGRICULTURE…very interested. A large sector but really not too many choices if you rule out futures, like I do. No positions as of this writing, but I have been watching WHGPY (Chinese pork processor who bought Smithfield), LAND (Gladstone Land, California farmland), INCPY (Input Capital, a Canadian canola, streaming model).

OIL AND GAS… Currently I have no positions in oil and gas as I see uncertainty in long-term demand, no real problems on the supply side, and more competition from other energy sources, primarily from the battery/electric sector. But I would welcome good ideas accompanied by strong reasons and decent due diligence and research. This field is so big and complex we could get completely lost just tossing names around. If someone has conviction and knowledge about a company, discussion is welcome.

SOLAR, WIND, COAL, IRON ORE, ALUMINUM, STEEL…really not too interested. The results depend too much on politics, the time frames seem too long. But I am not completely closed-minded on it if you have conviction on something. I am bullish on aluminum vis-a-vis steel but prefer more leveraged, long-term scandium alloy to aluminum.

****
DISCLOSURES. I am a retired executive and an amateur investor. I like both fundamental and technical analysis. I am a medium-term to long-term position player and prefer to discuss stock investment in that context.

I am not an expert in any of the commodities discussed, nor am I qualified to give advice. I change my mind on investment choices and my opinions are subject to change at any moment. Everyone makes mistakes and I make more than my share.
.
When I post, I express my opinions and my positions. These are just that…they are my opinions and my positions. They are not advice or recommendations, which I remind you I am unqualified to make. Caveat emptor. You are responsible for your decisions, and I am responsible for mine.
Political developments and opinions should be introduced on this thread only when they have a clear bearing on the commodities or companies under discussion.

I would like to operate in a friendly, honest, and constructive atmosphere.
As thread moderator I reserve to myself the role of referee, censor, arbiter, and Grand Poobah, subject to the over-arching authority of Travis, who owns the site and who has on occasion exercised his right to ruthlessly censor and suppress my radical blatherings.

**Please note: this post has been closed to further comments. The discussion has moved over to the most recent Gold, Silver and Hard Assets post, which will always be the topmost one on Hendrixnuzzles’s Stock Gumshoe page.**

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.

dunnydame
Member
885
I apologize in advance for the length of this article but I haven’t worked out how to send a link. Behre Dolbear wants readers to subscribe to the newsletter. BTW it’s FREE. And there’s a prominent mention of Robt Friedland. 09/11/17 BEHRE DOLBEAR WEEKLY NEWSLETTER HEADLINES Copper, iron ore price drops bring mayhem to mining stocks “Restoration of production will make Kipushi the world’s highest-grade major zinc mine” Philippines’ Duterte wants to keep open-pit mining ban China to loan Guinea $20B to secure aluminium ore Rare Earth Metals Electrified by China’s Illegal Mining Clean-Up How Gold’s Mr. FixIt Became Mr.… Read more »
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hendrixnuzzles
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Dunnydane, thanks, chock full of interesting stuff we won’t see otherwise.
Some obvious things:
Duterte should call Cleanteq.
The town council of Kiruna should call HPX,
The Chinese are gearing up on aluminum.
Base metal mine closings are good for prices, we just don’t want to own any mines in countries that are shutting them down.

hendrixnuzzles
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…and $MUX’s Los Azules looking good in Argentina

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eagerbeaver
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Ivanhoe is taking a hit. Does anyone know why?

denton
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THE writing is on the wall for some of South Africa’s gold and platinum mines, according to a report by ratings agency, Moody’s, which said companies such as AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields and Sibanye-Stillwater were likely to continue restructuring, especially if expansionary capital was held in abeyance. An illustration produced in Moody’s analyst Douglas Rowlings’ report ‘Restructuring of South African operations is credit positive for gold, PGM miners’, showed that the South African mines of AngloGold Ashanti and Gold Fields were infrequent contributors to earnings after capital expenditure during the last three-and-a-half financial years. Combined earnings after capital expenditure from… Read more »
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denton
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Here is the link to the above article. I believe this may explain some of the Ivanhoe decline eagerbeaver asked about.
http://www.miningmx.com/news/gold/30438-moodys-predicts-gold-mines-will-close-charter-crisis-persists/

eagerbeaver
Irregular
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Thank you Denton. I’m expecting Ivanhoe to bounce back, especially on recent good news.
https://www.ivanhoemines.com/news/2017/kamoa-kakula-copper-discovery-continues-remarkable-growth-of-global-significance-in-the-copper-world/
This could be a buying opportunity.

hendrixnuzzles
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Denton…South Africa and Ivanhoe…I am much more concerned about the situation in the DRC with respect to Ivanhoe. South Africa doesn’t worry me at all, here is why: 1, Ivanhoe get no market cap credit at all for the Platreefs PGM project anyway. Investors are getting Platreefs for free. The market is valuing Ivanhoe as a copper resource, and the copper is in the DRC. 2. The Platreefs project is so rich, when the dust settles it will be more profitable than any other mine in South Africa. So it will get built and it will produce metal. 3. The… Read more »
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hendrixnuzzles
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Copper

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hendrixnuzzles
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Scottu, $CLASF Colorado Resources…drill results…I agree with your observation on the Colorado drill results. Aside from the headline about the half meter with 4 kg gold per ton, the results were “only” pretty good. This was also the case with drilling prior to this release; in fact, I had considered getting out of CLASF to fund other higher grade prospects. I entered CLASF at 20 cents. There are a couple of reasons I can think of that keep me hanging on. First, I believe that the results are good enough to go after for an open pit mine. I prefer… Read more »
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denton
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$SAND. Here is a cut from a recent write up I received on SAND. It puts in simple terms the value Sandstorm gained by the acquisition of Mariana Resources and its Hot Maden project. In July, the company finalized a deal to acquire Mariana Resources. Under the terms of the agreement, Sandstorm paid $48 million in cash and issued more than 32 million shares of Sandstorm stock. That represents a total value of $175 million… The prize of the acquisition is Mariana’s 30% ownership of the high-grade Hot Maden project in Turkey… The grade of the deposit is an astonishing… Read more »
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denton
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$K92 Mining. Here is latest release on community relations. VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired – Sept. 15, 2017) – K92 Mining Inc. (“K92”) (TSX VENTURE:KNT)(OTCQB:KNTNF) reports that an extensive evaluation of underground vandalism reported in August has revealed only minor damage to underground equipment and infrastructure. Equipment damage onsite as described in the August 24, 2017 K92 News Release has been limited to 2 off MT2010 low profile trucks, a small Loader/Telehandler and surface infrastructure with a total estimated value of less than USD $1.4 million. The Company notes that with respect to the damage to this equipment it is in the… Read more »
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renbycage
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Today I gave my portfolio a 10% shave. Took some profit on Kirkland, which gave me 124% in 8 months, and closed out some short term trading positions at small profit. My portfolio is at its all time high, the perfect time for a shave. If things continue to go up, great. If we get a repeat of the last quarter of last year [as this year so far has followed last years gold pattern], I’ll have a little gunpowder for the resulting bargains. I also added a little Platina, I have a small investment there I wanted to beef… Read more »
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eagerbeaver
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Copper continues to fall in price and, with it, the price of Ivanhoe stock (IVPAF). Yet, I expect the demand for copper to surge now that EV production is being ramped up for political and environmental reasons.

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Griffin
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$CLASF – Colorado Closes Strategic Investment by GoldCorp to Fund Additional Exploration I just received this from Colorado it has not been posted on their website yet so here is a C&P of the main part;”COLORADO RESOURCES LTD. (TSX-V: CXO) (“Colorado” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that, further to its news release of August 4, 2017, the Company has closed the non-brokered private placements (the “Placements”) of 10,000,000 units (the “Units”) at an issue price of $0.26 per Unit and 12,720,000 flow-through units (the “FT Units”) at an issue price of $0.365 per FT Unit for aggregate gross… Read more »
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Griffin
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$FYI – Lithium Extraction Techniques – A Look At The Latest Technologies And The Companies Involved by Matt Bohlsen @SA Summary Disruptive new lithium extraction technologies use leaching, solvent extraction, geothermal extraction, and electrolysis. Leading companies include Lithium Australia, POSCO, Simbol, Tenova Bateman, ERAMET, Neometals and Nemaska Lithium. New lithium extraction technologies can have large implications for the lithium mining industry. https://seekingalpha.com/article/3988497-lithium-extraction-techniques-look-latest-technologies-companies-involved This is an old(?) article published July of 2016 that I just ran across. What seems significant about this article is that 50% of the Lithium supply comes from lithium brine. Currently processing Lithium brine by evaporation much… Read more »
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