GOLD AND SILVER AND HARD ASSETS…SUMMER 2017

By hendrixnuzzles, July 3, 2017

Pretium Resources $PVG announced on July 3 that commercial production has been achieved at Brucejack.
That achievement makes a nice breakpoint for a new thread continuation on hard assets, which I introduce herewith.
This thread is a continuation of threads posted previously by the author on gold and silver and hard asset investments. It incorporates the changes that have occurred in my outlook
since January. Most of the companies I am long have been subject to lengthy due diligence and discussion, which you can find on prior threads.

PURPOSE My intent is to find and discuss good hard asset and commodity ideas. The thread is aimed at those who share the same general outlook. I favor royalty companies, developers, small to mid-cap miners, and explorers. I am wary of big-cap miners, ETFs, and indexes. I am strongly influenced by the leadership and management of the companies under discussion.

I am a believer in the concept of optionality as propounded by Rick Rule. And remember that as investments, in general, MINERS SUCK. We are looking for those that suck the least and have the most upside, or speculations we believe have the best chances of appreciating. My favorite jurisdictions are Canada and Australia, but I will look at sketchy neighborhoods like Turkey, DRC and Mongolia and speculate there if I think the story is compelling. I am also a big fan of Robert Friedland and I believe there is a technological materials and commodity revolution taking place, which subject is also best suited to the other thread: Scandium, Cobalt, and Water Purification: CleanTeQ Holdings.

My outlook for the sectors (excluding scandium and the rare earth battery metal complex) is as follows:

GOLD AND SILVER INVESTMENTS…Precious metals remain a focus on this thread. I believe that gold and silver prices have been and continue to be a target of manipulation and price suppression by powerful groups, including and especially governments and central banks. I take these suppressive actions to be a reality and part of the landscape. It is pointless to cry about it, but instructive to observe what is happening.

I believe these efforts will eventually fail, but they can visit havoc on prices and values in the meantime and keep prices artificially low for long periods. But not forever.
Meanwhile I will maintain my positions in the sector and lookfor the very best speculations and investments in it.

So I am still bullish and gold and silver investments for the long-term, although the proportion of them in my investments in my stock portfolio is being reduced somewhat.
That proportion is still probably much higher than that of most readers.

My gold/silver longs are:

Miners, even though miners suck: $PVG Pretium Resources, $MAG Mag Silver
Royalty/streamers: $WPM Wheaton Precious Metals, $SAND Sandstorm Gold. Was long $FNV but did not like their recent shift to gain exposure to oil and gas, so I am out.
Developers: $SA Seabridge, $BCEKF Bear Creek, $KNTNF K92 Mining
Exploration speculations: $CNRIF Condor, $ERDCF Erdene Resource Development, $KVLQF Kivalliq Energy, $CLASF Colorado Resources
Physical and redeemables: I hold physical in non-numismatic gold and silver, and I am long $PSLV.

COPPER, ZINC, NICKEL…I am bullish and welcome discussion of tickers in these commodities. My only long at the moment is Ivanhoe Mines, $IVPAF.
$IVPAF has some political and jurisdiction risk in DRC, and minor exposure in South Africa; so I think introduction of other ideas is of benefit.

SCANDIUM, COBALT, and WATER PURIFICATION: Please revert to my thread devoted to this. Discussion of battery technology and mining technology is best posted on that thread.
My conviction pick/stock speculation here is $CTEQF, CleanTeQ Holdings, which has its own thread.

LITHIUM: I am long Galaxy Resources but I am not terribly excited by the lithium space as a commodity play;
discussion of lithium and batteries should be on the other thread Scandium, Cobalt, and Water Purification: CleanTeQ Holdings.

PLATINUM GROUP METALS (PGM) Fair game for thread discussion.
My only long is Ivanhoe Mines IVPAF, which is mainly a copper/zinc stock.

DIAMONDS I have very small positions in Lucara and Lupara, they are diamond mining speculations.

URANIUM…I’m bullish but the choices seem pretty limited. My top three investment-grade choices are Cameco first, then Cameco second, or my third pick would be Cameco. After that, you are speculating on small caps, or buying ETFS or funds comprised of Cameco and some small caps. At the moment, I am long $CCJ Cameco and UEC as a high-leverage speculation.

POTASH/FERTILIZER…very interested because it is at the intersection of food and mining, but no position at present. Ideas welcome.

AGRICULTURE…very interested. A large sector but really not too many choices if you rule out futures, like I do. No positions as of this writing, but I have been watching WHGPY (Chinese pork processor who bought Smithfield), LAND (Gladstone Land, California farmland), INCPY (Input Capital, a Canadian canola, streaming model).

OIL AND GAS… Currently I have no positions in oil and gas as I see uncertainty in long-term demand, no real problems on the supply side, and more competition from other energy sources, primarily from the battery/electric sector. But I would welcome good ideas accompanied by strong reasons and decent due diligence and research. This field is so big and complex we could get completely lost just tossing names around. If someone has conviction and knowledge about a company, discussion is welcome.

SOLAR, WIND, COAL, IRON ORE, ALUMINUM, STEEL…really not too interested. The results depend too much on politics, the time frames seem too long. But I am not completely closed-minded on it if you have conviction on something. I am bullish on aluminum vis-a-vis steel but prefer more leveraged, long-term scandium alloy to aluminum.

****
DISCLOSURES. I am a retired executive and an amateur investor. I like both fundamental and technical analysis. I am a medium-term to long-term position player and prefer to discuss stock investment in that context.

I am not an expert in any of the commodities discussed, nor am I qualified to give advice. I change my mind on investment choices and my opinions are subject to change at any moment. Everyone makes mistakes and I make more than my share.
.
When I post, I express my opinions and my positions. These are just that…they are my opinions and my positions. They are not advice or recommendations, which I remind you I am unqualified to make. Caveat emptor. You are responsible for your decisions, and I am responsible for mine.
Political developments and opinions should be introduced on this thread only when they have a clear bearing on the commodities or companies under discussion.

I would like to operate in a friendly, honest, and constructive atmosphere.
As thread moderator I reserve to myself the role of referee, censor, arbiter, and Grand Poobah, subject to the over-arching authority of Travis, who owns the site and who has on occasion exercised his right to ruthlessly censor and suppress my radical blatherings.

**Please note: this post has been closed to further comments. The discussion has moved over to the most recent Gold, Silver and Hard Assets post, which will always be the topmost one on Hendrixnuzzles’s Stock Gumshoe page.**

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.

secretsquirrel
Irregular
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secretsquirrel

Ivanhoe Mines,
Advancing our projects

One of seven drill rigs drilling at the Kakula West discovery area, located approximately three kilometres west of the new Kakula resource area. An initial resource estimate for the Kakula West area is targeted for completion by the end of 2017.

Includes short video of Ivanhoe’s Kamoa-Kakula Copper Project.

https://www.ivanhoemines.com/site/assets/files/2825/ivanhoe_mines_progress_gallery_july_2017.pdf

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leslie7
Irregular
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leslie7

Thanks, HN!!

hedy1234
Member
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hedy1234

HN your writings and thoughts on these topics are much appreciated.

I understand that gold and silver are manipulated but really thought that the current rise in military conflicts around the world would have moved the prices up.

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hendrixnuzzles
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hendrixnuzzles

Hedy1234…largest copper mines

http://www.mining-technology.com/features/feature-the-10-biggest-copper-mines-in-the-world/

Some of it depends on how you want to measure. RF cites El Teniente as the largest
although Escondida is ranked first in the link above on account of current production. But El Teniente has been producing copper since 1904…over 100 years.

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hendrixnuzzles
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hendrixnuzzles

Escondida is cited as having 32 million tons of recoverable copper and produces about 1 million tons per year.

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arch1
Member
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Anyone holding South African mining stock may want to read the following;

https://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21724766-industry-faces-tough-times-made-worse-foolish-policies-south-african

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secretsquirrel
Irregular
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secretsquirrel

Top 50 mining companies reshuffle as Chinese, lithium firms climb rankings

http://www.mining.com/top-50-mining-companies-reshuffle-chinese-lithium-firms-climb-rankings/

….and Ivanhoe Mines, a platinum and copper explorer which is up in nearly fourfold in value over the past year and now worth $2.4 billion.

Long $CIVN

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hedy1234
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hedy1234

Great little article. Cannot determine where they get the $value from. Much higher than MC.

They show BHP at 92B and the MC is 58B.

hendrixnuzzles
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hendrixnuzzles

Copper and porphyry…from Professor Wiki “The term porphyry is also used for a mineral deposit called a “copper porphyry”. The different stages of cooling that create porphyritic textures in intrusive and hypabyssal porphyritic rocks also lead to a separation of dissolved metals into distinct zones. This process, which occurs primarily when fluids are driven off the cooling magma, is one of the main reasons for the existence in the world of rich, localized metal ore deposits such as those of gold, copper, molybdenum, lead, tin, zinc, rhenium and tungsten. This enrichment occurs in the porphyry itself, or in other related… Read more »

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hendrixnuzzles
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hendrixnuzzles

First I have to look up “porphyry”. Then I have to see what “hypabyssal” means.
Then there is a reference to plutons. Then I remember that the guys at MAG were all excited by “skarns”. Should have taken geology.

chrizcringle
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If I’m not mistaken Marin Katusa in on the board of Copper Montain and has been for many, many years.

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