written by reader GOLD AND SILVER AND HARD ASSETS…SUMMER 2017

By hendrixnuzzles, July 3, 2017

Pretium Resources $PVG announced on July 3 that commercial production has been achieved at Brucejack.
That achievement makes a nice breakpoint for a new thread continuation on hard assets, which I introduce herewith.
This thread is a continuation of threads posted previously by the author on gold and silver and hard asset investments. It incorporates the changes that have occurred in my outlook
since January. Most of the companies I am long have been subject to lengthy due diligence and discussion, which you can find on prior threads.

PURPOSE My intent is to find and discuss good hard asset and commodity ideas. The thread is aimed at those who share the same general outlook. I favor royalty companies, developers, small to mid-cap miners, and explorers. I am wary of big-cap miners, ETFs, and indexes. I am strongly influenced by the leadership and management of the companies under discussion.

I am a believer in the concept of optionality as propounded by Rick Rule. And remember that as investments, in general, MINERS SUCK. We are looking for those that suck the least and have the most upside, or speculations we believe have the best chances of appreciating. My favorite jurisdictions are Canada and Australia, but I will look at sketchy neighborhoods like Turkey, DRC and Mongolia and speculate there if I think the story is compelling. I am also a big fan of Robert Friedland and I believe there is a technological materials and commodity revolution taking place, which subject is also best suited to the other thread: Scandium, Cobalt, and Water Purification: CleanTeQ Holdings.

My outlook for the sectors (excluding scandium and the rare earth battery metal complex) is as follows:

GOLD AND SILVER INVESTMENTS…Precious metals remain a focus on this thread. I believe that gold and silver prices have been and continue to be a target of manipulation and price suppression by powerful groups, including and especially governments and central banks. I take these suppressive actions to be a reality and part of the landscape. It is pointless to cry about it, but instructive to observe what is happening.

I believe these efforts will eventually fail, but they can visit havoc on prices and values in the meantime and keep prices artificially low for long periods. But not forever.
Meanwhile I will maintain my positions in the sector and lookfor the very best speculations and investments in it.

So I am still bullish and gold and silver investments for the long-term, although the proportion of them in my investments in my stock portfolio is being reduced somewhat.
That proportion is still probably much higher than that of most readers.

My gold/silver longs are:

Miners, even though miners suck: $PVG Pretium Resources, $MAG Mag Silver
Royalty/streamers: $WPM Wheaton Precious Metals, $SAND Sandstorm Gold. Was long $FNV but did not like their recent shift to gain exposure to oil and gas, so I am out.
Developers: $SA Seabridge, $BCEKF Bear Creek, $KNTNF K92 Mining
Exploration speculations: $CNRIF Condor, $ERDCF Erdene Resource Development, $KVLQF Kivalliq Energy, $CLASF Colorado Resources
Physical and redeemables: I hold physical in non-numismatic gold and silver, and I am long $PSLV.

COPPER, ZINC, NICKEL…I am bullish and welcome discussion of tickers in these commodities. My only long at the moment is Ivanhoe Mines, $IVPAF.
$IVPAF has some political and jurisdiction risk in DRC, and minor exposure in South Africa; so I think introduction of other ideas is of benefit.

SCANDIUM, COBALT, and WATER PURIFICATION: Please revert to my thread devoted to this. Discussion of battery technology and mining technology is best posted on that thread.
My conviction pick/stock speculation here is $CTEQF, CleanTeQ Holdings, which has its own thread.

LITHIUM: I am long Galaxy Resources but I am not terribly excited by the lithium space as a commodity play;
discussion of lithium and batteries should be on the other thread Scandium, Cobalt, and Water Purification: CleanTeQ Holdings.

PLATINUM GROUP METALS (PGM) Fair game for thread discussion.
My only long is Ivanhoe Mines IVPAF, which is mainly a copper/zinc stock.

DIAMONDS I have very small positions in Lucara and Lupara, they are diamond mining speculations.

URANIUM…I’m bullish but the choices seem pretty limited. My top three investment-grade choices are Cameco first, then Cameco second, or my third pick would be Cameco. After that, you are speculating on small caps, or buying ETFS or funds comprised of Cameco and some small caps. At the moment, I am long $CCJ Cameco and UEC as a high-leverage speculation.

POTASH/FERTILIZER…very interested because it is at the intersection of food and mining, but no position at present. Ideas welcome.

AGRICULTURE…very interested. A large sector but really not too many choices if you rule out futures, like I do. No positions as of this writing, but I have been watching WHGPY (Chinese pork processor who bought Smithfield), LAND (Gladstone Land, California farmland), INCPY (Input Capital, a Canadian canola, streaming model).

OIL AND GAS… Currently I have no positions in oil and gas as I see uncertainty in long-term demand, no real problems on the supply side, and more competition from other energy sources, primarily from the battery/electric sector. But I would welcome good ideas accompanied by strong reasons and decent due diligence and research. This field is so big and complex we could get completely lost just tossing names around. If someone has conviction and knowledge about a company, discussion is welcome.

SOLAR, WIND, COAL, IRON ORE, ALUMINUM, STEEL…really not too interested. The results depend too much on politics, the time frames seem too long. But I am not completely closed-minded on it if you have conviction on something. I am bullish on aluminum vis-a-vis steel but prefer more leveraged, long-term scandium alloy to aluminum.

****
DISCLOSURES. I am a retired executive and an amateur investor. I like both fundamental and technical analysis. I am a medium-term to long-term position player and prefer to discuss stock investment in that context.

I am not an expert in any of the commodities discussed, nor am I qualified to give advice. I change my mind on investment choices and my opinions are subject to change at any moment. Everyone makes mistakes and I make more than my share.
.
When I post, I express my opinions and my positions. These are just that…they are my opinions and my positions. They are not advice or recommendations, which I remind you I am unqualified to make. Caveat emptor. You are responsible for your decisions, and I am responsible for mine.
Political developments and opinions should be introduced on this thread only when they have a clear bearing on the commodities or companies under discussion.

I would like to operate in a friendly, honest, and constructive atmosphere.
As thread moderator I reserve to myself the role of referee, censor, arbiter, and Grand Poobah, subject to the over-arching authority of Travis, who owns the site and who has on occasion exercised his right to ruthlessly censor and suppress my radical blatherings.

**Please note: this post has been closed to further comments. The discussion has moved over to the most recent Gold, Silver and Hard Assets post, which will always be the topmost one on Hendrixnuzzles’s Stock Gumshoe page.**

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.

hendrixnuzzles
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hendrixnuzzles

$SAND Sandstorm Gold…long…Kitco has a current interview with Nolan Watson. In it he mentions that they have $70 or 80 million in non-core security investments. I have mentioned previously that from time to time, Sandstorm takes positions in companies they are interested in for streams and royalties, largely to get the attention of the target management. Now the figure he mentions is interesting if you compare it to Sandstorm’s published value of these investments. The only hard reference to this pool of capital is on a recent bar chart where they illustrate their available capital from bank lines, debt investments,… Read More »

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Elliot
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Elliot

Anyone follow Elliot wave or other technical patterns in the precious metals and mining sector? Getting a bit worried as what appeared to be a very long developing bullish setup is now apparently breaking down. Long $WPM $GDX $CTEQF $VGPMX. Scared.

hendrixnuzzles
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hendrixnuzzles

$SAND Sandstorm Gold…long….Hot Maden…details, details. In the website charts there are results of drill holes at Hot Maden, and there are charts showing proven, probable, and inferred resources. And of course there are voluminous Preliminary Economic Assessments based on these results. The baseline PEA was done on 65 drill holes and resulted in 2P reserves at Hot Maden of about 3 million ounces gold equivalent. Meanwhile, there is ongoing drilling that is NOT incorporated in the baseline PEA. David Awram said that the PEA does not include resources that can be calculated from drill holes HTM-66 on up. There are… Read More »

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secretsquirrel
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secretsquirrel

Not sure if this was posted previously?

Ivanhoe Mines especially,

Top 5 Mining Stocks To Watch In 2017: H1 Review
Jul 6 2017, 09:36 | Includes: GDXJ, XME, IVPAF, NSU, NXE, PLG, SRHYY

Top 5 Mining Stocks To Watch In 2017: H1 Review https://seekingalpha.com/article/4086030?source=ansh $GDXJ, $XME, $IVPAF, $NSU, $NXE, $PLG, $SRHYY

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dougj34
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dougj34

I appreciate your reply to my post re $MDRPF HN. I am leaning toward these guys developing these assets sometime during the next 12-18 months. I would not expect Midas to go it alone but it certainly has the talent to participate as a major force and, as the exceptional explorer Midas has proved itself to be, they keep drilling. $900 mil of Antimony, at current prices, makes this total asset more than a speculation IMO as the major sources from Chinese mines puts continued, reliable supply in a higher risk category. Midas is well funded also. I started building… Read More »

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secretsquirrel
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secretsquirrel

July 10, 2017 17:05 ET

Colorado Commences Drilling at KSP and Provides Exploration Update

http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/colorado-commences-drilling-at-ksp-and-provides-exploration-update-2225510.htm

hendrixnuzzles
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hendrixnuzzles

$PVG Pretium Resources…long…on their website they have a picture of one of their first dore bars. Sort of like a baby picture for a mine….really not so cute but beatiful to the proud parents. They also announced the awarding of off-take agreements for 100% of dore production and for 100% their bagged concentrate…I guess the gold is the dore, and the silver is in the bagged concentrate, which looks like gray dirt.

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rocketman
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rocketman

I think I’m ready to increase my exposure to gold and silver stocks now. I had decreased my exposure somewhat in the spring but I think a turnaround is coming soon if it hasn’t started already. I already own SAND, PVG, CCJ, IVPAF, MRLDF, SPOXF and CTEQF. I think the Fed will halt raising rates for a while which should be bullish for gold. I see turbulence ahead regarding China and North Korea and that also should be bullish for gold. There’s still a lot of deflationary pressures out there so I’m not going to go overboard on buying commodity… Read More »

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petervr
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petervr

Penny, we are nice people because we are encouraged to be nice people by people like you 🙂

renbycage
Member
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renbycage

Penny, if anyone was impolite to you on an internet thread, just ignore it, and don’t take it personally. People who post mean things are just losers who aren’t worth even a second thought. Thank you for being a nice person.

dunnydame
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dunnydame

Thanks renbyc and PeterVR for your kind remarks.
No, no-one was impolite to me, and if they were, I could ignore it. We were foster parents for our county for 16 years for almost 60 children, some of them quite disturbed, and believe me, I’ve heard it all and can close my ears when the epithets fly. (We took care of the more difficult children.)
Fortunately these blogs are relatively free from trolls.
Penny

niizajim
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