by DrKSSMDPhD | September 8, 2017 4:01 pm
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2017/09/is-aurinias-supremacy-in-lupus-nephritis-threatened-by-glaxos-benlysta/
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$NBRV np – Shelf… Nabriva Therapeutics Announces Proposed Public Offering of Ordinary Shares http://investors.nabriva.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=254099&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2301335
Established a full position in $HALO today and a 1/2 position in $PGTX; I really like what is going on with both companies. Will add to $PGTX as funds become available.
Thanks for letting us know what you’re doing….I like when readers do that. I think you’ve made excellent decisions.
Doc I’ll always be grateful for the information that you provide that allows us to perform our due diligence and make investment decisions. You are making such a difference in peoples’ lives
$Blessed
Jeffrey, I think you mean $PTGX do you not? Long $PTGX.
Regards,
Frank
thank you Frank; I always transpose the 2 digits!
$ARTH Due Diligence Assistance
Separate $ARTH Thread closed July 2017 but over 3,000 + posts
https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2015/08/microblog-discussion-re-arth/
Short Elevator Pitch
https://www.dropbox.com/s/aeu4p1dcbjxgnvv/4%20Short%20Elevator%20Arch%20Therapeutics.docx?dl=0
Long Elevator Pitch
https://www.dropbox.com/s/5qc2d2aycc3n4d9/5%20ARCH%20THERAPEUTICS%20Elevator%20Summary.docx?dl=0
Share Summary
https://www.dropbox.com/s/codjw4krzh4ctt3/7%20June%2030%202017%20ArchTherapeuticsShareSummary.xlsx?dl=0
All forum participants should read Dr. KSS Forum Disclaimer https://www.dropbox.com/s/7z834t8910ebb27/a%20Disclaimer.docx?dl=
$reverse split
pertaining to $ ARTH
In general, if not expecting any news that may move SP, is it better to buy before a stock has a reverse split or after. It seems to me that since a reverse split can have a negative connotation, it might be better to wait until after the split to get a slight discount. Then again, I have very poor market sense/knowledge. Any guidance appreciated.
$ARTH
Ask 10 people and if you are from Austin you will get 11 different answers.
So if they announce a JNJ partnership the day before the split?
Will it discount below todays’s price?
Arth is only 41% of the Closure Medical acquired price by JNJ in 2005.
What will cause the movement over $ 1 ?? IND? Partnership?
$ARTH – cw99 – They should issue more shares before the split. The price may drop when new shares are issued. I think they should be splitting to get stock price well over $5 share, with outstanding shares after split at 40-50 M.
As of today’s price and shares outstanding they would need double outstanding shares before a split. IMO
$ARTH Sorry I have no idea how you are coming up with the above. 40-50M after split ? Issue more shares?
$ARTH – What do I know Cleveland? I am just one of the ten people in Austin. 🙂
$arth long
I assume what’s unknown here is how the SP will react upon an approved 501(k). If the stock rockets up another 20-30% and then a reserve split occurs with a 5% drop, you were better off buying now.
And if the stock sells off on good news for whatever reason since it’s already had a good run from the .40’s, then perhaps you are better off waiting to buy then.
I think the magic is in figuring out if the former or latter happens. For that you probably need a crystal ball or be an insider or someone with enough capital to be in position to move the $arth market when the time comes.
One of Dr. KSS’s stocks $ISRG took about 17 years to get where it is today. Granted, the upside on that one is phenomenal, but it took a while to get there and the volatility in between was not insignificant. $arth wants to transform the way surgery is practiced on some levels, and I personally suspect the $arth story may take many more years to get there because of that.
As to all stocks in general, I think it is important to have an eye on the potential for a market correction due to recession/depression/war/geopolitics within the next 1-3 years. That will also greatly influence the direction of these stocks subject to partnerships, buyouts, and mergers. Not many talk about these implications here (though it’s largely discussed on the SG in other threads), in part because these things are impossible to predict or time and its ramifications largely unknown as to these small cap biotech stocks, some of which had low institutional ownership such as $arth.
Jeffrey M, I think you will be very happy … and maybe very soon. $HALO had YUGE volume today on the Jan 2019 $25 Calls that I and others here have been collecting over the past few months. WAY more traded today than had ever traded before in the history of trading in the option. Period. In the U.S. and around the world. Even the the volume in stock trading was higher today than it was Friday, the day after its big announcement. I also note that where the $25 Call used to be the highest strike available, a $30 strike recently became available. Also VERY BIG volume on nearer-term close to the money Calls. If it were not illegal to trade on insider info, I would conclude that a buyout deal is in the works and will soon be announced. But we know that insider trading NEVER occurs.
Honor roll post.
thank you Traydon; I think that $HALO has a very bright future. Great to hear from Dr. KSS and fellow gummies on this
$ARTH – a new report
Arch Therapeutics Inc (ARTH) “Buy” Rating Reconfirmed Today By H.C. Wainwright; The Target Price is $3.0
September 18, 2017 – By Ellis Scott
https://www.dispatchtribunal.com/2017/09/18/arch-therapeutics-arth-buy-rating-reiterated-at-hc-wainwright.html
Long ARTH with hopes and conviction.
Thank you Helen! OW by chance? ; )
$PTGX
An influential analyst (Financial Times) comments favorably on Protagonist Therapeutics.
http://www.thewellesleysnews.com/2017/09/18/influential-analyst-rating-changes-intrexon-corporation-xon-protagonist-therapeutics-inc-ptgx/
In excerpt: the part pertaining to PTGX:
“Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:PTGX) is worth US$272.79 Million and has recently risen 2.54% to US$15.75. The latest exchange of 0.09 Million shares is below its average trading activity of 77.27 Million shares. The day began at US$15.29 but the price moved to US$14.72 at one point during the trading and finally capitulating to a session high of US$15.91. The stock tapped a 52-week high of US$26.36 while the mean 12-month price target for the shares is US$0.
Currently, the stock carries a price to earnings ratio of 0, a price to book ratio of 4.35, and a price to sales ratio of 0. For the past 5 years, the company’s revenue has grown 0%, while the company’s earnings per share has grown 0%. With an institutional ownership near 88.7%, it carries an earnings per share ratio of -3.
According to Financial Times, The 4 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Protagonist Therapeutics Inc have a median target of 35.50, with a high estimate of 45.00 and a low estimate of 30.00. The median estimate represents a 125.40% increase from the last price of 15.75.”
Disclaimer: long $PTGX, a conviction buy for me. The above is not intended as investment advice.
$ARTH long
Doc please forward this link to Dr. Norchi. Tha EU will implement a new and tougher data protection law on May 25, 2018. Add this to the new medical devise approval process and you have a real challenge just being in compliance. So Arch needs to make sure that the CRO they work with is not only aware of these changes, but actively integrating them NOW. We want smooth sailing without hiiting any rocks.
https://labiotech.eu/gdpr-eu-data-protection/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=synteracthcr
$ARTH long and 2xOW I believe that TN is aware of this. It was discussed in these threads in the past month or two. It was TN that brought it up with one of the Gummies, forgive me for not being positive on who but I think it might have been Glenn.
$ARTH long
Thanks rlamore – I have seen and heard TN refer to the new device approval procedure Whivh has a specific challenge for Arch – each “device” must have a unique identifyer. I have not seen any reference to the new data protection law which has implications for clinical trials. So reminding him to put it on the checklist for their CRO would not hurt;) We want him to succeed without too many roadblocks;)
I do not know how Euro would view it but a unique serial number on each kit of vials, anionic liquid,powder and syringes would seem to be enough for device identifier. IMO
Doc, Molecular Partners AG is holding a presentation on DARPin therapeutics on November 9, 2017 at Aretsky’s Patroon Townhouse in NYC. It’s only for 2 hours. If you are in NYC on that day………. rsvp information at link
http://e1.marco.ch/publish/konsulenten/3ff4e986/ar_partners_ag_on_the_darpinr_difference_-_offering_patients_a_new_dimension_of_protein_therapeutics.7360-608-1453-0-5.html
$FARN
Long post upcoming
A little update, and a question, on Faron Pharmaceuticals, the Finnish pharm I have been long for last 18 months. They are nearing completion of phase 3 in of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (“ARDS”), results are due q4 2017. They also have an interesting Mab entering the clinic next year for HCC, but we will forget about that for the time being.
The phase 3 mimics the phase 2 study of intravenous INF-B, Traumakine, that cut 28 day mortality in ARDS patients from 32 % in the control arm to 8% in the treatment arm, p 0.01. Also, a reduction in ICU stay from 28 to 16 days was seen. 300 patients are enrolled compared to 100 in the phase 2 so power is good.
Japanese partner Maruishi runs pivotal Phase III ARDS trial in and anticipates completion of recruitment in this 120 patient study during H1 2018
+Results of the phase 2 study published in the Lancet:
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(13)70259-5/fulltext
+Shares outstanding: 28 m
+Mcap: 300 m USD
+Share price YTD: +220%, stock close to all time high
+CEO: dr Markku Jalkanen, former CEO of BioTie, an old Gummie-stock that ended up acquired by Acorda last year.
+ IP looks solid and worldwide. Competition is non existing.
Latest good news: FDA has proposed to proceed directly to BLA submission for Traumakine® upon completion of European and Japanese Phase III studies, explicitly OK-ing to apply without the need of US Phase III trials. This saves a lot of money and time.
The genius of Traumakine is that it’s a huuuge money saver. ICU beds are expensive. Cutting time in the ICU by 40% will be very much appreciated by ICU-doctors scrambling for money and empty beds. And hey, if you reduce mortality as well, that’s a bonus.
So, two phase 3 readouts within a year. I bet positive results.
Does anyone want to guess how much Faron could be worth in a year assuming positive results? Valuation is not my forte, but 300 million mcap seems a bit low. Or? Opinions much appreciated!
Best Regards
Noci, long $Farn
$FARN
That’s on the London exchange, yes?
Afraid I have nothing to contribute but congratulations: if you’ve had that 18 months, you’ve already seen it treble!
If you have more such ideas, please don’t hesitate!
$FARN
Oh, yes, that’s right, it trades in London. And thank you for congratulations. Even a blind hen and al that.
Best Regards
Noci
$MRTX Form 3: http://ir.mirati.com/node/9166/html
$NBRV Form 424B5: http://investors.nabriva.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=254099&p=IROL-sec
Two for Tuesday 🙂 Have a great day all.
$noticker
A month or two ago IB requested a general permission to lend my shares to shorts, and, appreciating interest as much as the next person, I agreed. I’ve thought little more about it since, as nothing appeared on my screens to suggest it was happening. I assumed I held too few shares to be worth bothering. But today I happened to look at a detailed activity statement, for unconnected reasons, and spotted that over 50 percent of my portfolio is currently lent out!
I could not, so far, discover which actual stocks, or at what rates. But with one non-bio exception I hold nothing but the usual suspects from the KSS universe, so there must be a whole lotta shorting going on. (Or maybe IB makes the process super easy and is taking a lot of the shorting market) Either way, in my view, this is good news. If the companies are sound, short interest means a rapid jump, sooner or later…
$noticker
Found more details today about IB’s automatic lending of my stocks to shorts. If the overall lending continues as it has so far, it alone will represent a 5% annual return on my portfolio. I’m quite happy with that! Highest interest rates have been on CLRB, BIOC and CAPR, in some cases over 100%. Note that IB only pays 50% of the interest it receives.
$XLRN np
Acceleron gains rights to fund, develop, and lead global commercialization of sotatercept in pulmonary arterial hypertension –
– Acceleron expects to initiate a Phase 2 trial of sotatercept in pulmonary arterial hypertension in 1H 2018 –
– Preclinical results show potential first-in-class disease modifying properties of sotatercept in pulmonary arterial hypertension –
– Sotatercept is a well-defined TGF-beta superfamily ligand trap with a widely established preclinical and clinical profile
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170919005594/en/
Is this competition for $BLPH?
$CAPR long – Up 12%+
$FOLD U.S. FDA Grants Fast Track Designation to Migalastat for Treatment of Fabry Disease https://twitter.com/odibro/status/910103936358633472
$CAPR long – Seems to be catching it’s second leg up for the day!
OK, Jammin…..which island are you buying THIS time???
The entire float has now officially traded for the day.
“Folks, their legs ain’t the problem! It’s that other muscle, the one in their chest, the one that pumps Big Red. Their hearts are afflicted with the same muscle… ”
https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2017/06/oncotutorial/comment-page-10/#comment-4943780
#Long #ZKSS, the GREAT Gummune and $CAPR. 🙂
Folks there is a NEW biotechnology thread:
Cisco, Chang & Charlie Part 3
https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2017/09/cisco-chang-charlie-part-3/
Thank YOU #ZKSS, your awesomeness!
long $AUPH
R&D Day
October 20, 2017 at 8:00 am Eastern Time in New York, NY.
Should see a nice pop with new clinical paths for voclo.
Anyone else think it is a coincidence that Oct. 20th is options expiration date for $AUPH?
Not sure what it means, but interesting.
$Magnesium
More info on Mg from another source
Never take these three forms of magnesium
Dear Reader,
Yesterday, I reported on the importance of keeping nuts in your diet, despite what the government warned for decades. As I explained, nuts have a healthy ratio of lower omega-6 to higher omega-3 fatty acids.
More broadly, nuts are like Nature’s original dietary supplements. They’re the plant world’s equivalent of an egg. Just like an egg must include all the nutrients a chick needs to develop and hatch, a nut must contain all the nutrients a plant needs to sprout and grow.
One of those nutrients is magnesium.
This often-overlooked nutrient is just as important as calcium for bones and muscles (including the heart). Doctors inject it directly into the blood, or the heart itself, during an acute heart event.
But many Americans are deficient. In fact, according to some estimates, up to 80 percent of Americans do not get enough magnesium.
For one, fruits and vegetables that once had higher levels of bioavailable nutrients and minerals no longer do because of ongoing depletion of nutrients in the soil.
Secondly, Americans consume far more processed foods instead of getting important nutrients from fresh foods.
Of course, your bones store large amounts of magnesium (and calcium). This storage mechanism helps the body carefully regulate magnesium levels in the blood. But it also makes it very hard to detect a deficiency. For example, blood levels may not show deficiency, even when you do have one in your cells and tissues.
So, for most people, I recommend magnesium supplementation.
But you have to be careful when choosing a magnesium supplement, as not all forms work the same way. And if you’re not well-informed, some supplements can even cause serious harm.
Not all magnesium works the same
First and foremost, avoid the ridiculous “once-a-day” pills that purport to have everything, but do virtually nothing for you. They don’t contain the right amounts of magnesium. Nor do they contain appropriate bioavailable forms that your body can easily absorb.
Magnesium must be bound to something else for the body to ingest and digest it. So—look for these different kinds of combinations. Follow the recommended doses on the particular formulation you choose. I find magnesium citrate, at the top of my list, to be the best place to start overall:
Magnesium citrate
Magnesium citrate is the most popular supplement form. It’s relatively inexpensive and easily absorbed in the body. Know that citrate also acts as a mild laxative. That being said, you may want to get your magnesium from a different source if you suffer from diarrhea or loose bowels.
Magnesium taurate
Magnesium taurate is easily absorbed and often used for heart health. It guards the heart from damage caused by heart attacks. It also prevents arrhythmia (abnormal heart beats), which may lead to blood clots or cardiac arrest.
Magnesium malate
Magnesium malate is a good choice for people with fibromyalgia-chronic fatigue syndrome (FM-CFS). Malate or malic acid is a natural constituent found in fruits, such as apples. It’s also a key metabolite in every cell in the body.
Magnesium chloride
Magnesium chloride is essentially a salt or electrolyte. Instead of a sodium atom bound to a chlorine atom (salt), it has two chlorine atoms bound to magnesium.
It’s only 12 percent elemental magnesium. But as a salt, it’s rapidly absorbed from the GI system into blood and tissues. It also functions as an electrolyte (electrolytes are essential to our metabolism) and helps excrete toxins from tissues in the body. The chloride helps kidney function, but without the sodium. This supplement can be taken in oral form or you can use it in the form of bath salts for a warm, detoxifying soak.
Magnesium carbonate
Magnesium carbonate is another popular form. It helps neutralize the pH of your stomach acid, helping to soothe acid reflux, heartburn and indigestion (as the name “carbonate” implies).
Magnesium glycinate
Magnesium glycinate is bound to the amino acid, glycine. It’s highly absorbable and bioavailable. It may work best for long-term replenishment of the body’s magnesium supply.
Magnesium sulfate
Magnesium sulfate, better known as Epsom salts, is a potent remedy for constipation and also provides magnesium. You shouldn’t take this form orally since it’s easy to overdose. Instead, save it for your bath water (add about one to two cups to your tub). It’s a soothing relaxant to your muscles and allows absorption of magnesium through the skin, without risking GI side effects or overdosing, even if you are taking an oral supplement.
These supplements can be found in most local pharmacies, grocery stores, health supplement stores, Amazon, or at The Vitamin Shoppe location nearest you.
Now onto the forms to avoid…
Forms of magnesium you should avoid
Magnesium glutamate
Glutamic acid is an excitatory amino acid, meaning it helps to cause neurons to fire in the brain. However, when ingested in excess, free glutamic acid doesn’t bind to other amino acids (like a neuropeptide or protein), and causes an overload rise in blood level. This can become neurotoxic and poison nerve tissue. This supplement has also been linked to worsening depression or anxiety symptoms.
Magnesium aspartate
Aspartate or aspartic acid is a component of the dangerous, neurotoxic artificial sweetener aspartame. I shared with you the dangers of aspartame earlier this month.
Magnesium oxide
This is the most common form of magnesium, found in the majority of pharmacies. But it’s non-chelated, which essentially means it’s not an “organic” form. Thus, your body has a hard time absorbing it compared to other forms. It’s actually like trying to get nutrients from eating rocks.
Clinical research also shows it causes inflammation of the heart membrane.
Don’t forget—you can also get magnesium from cacao, meat, seafood, and green, leafy vegetables (such as spinach). Of course, nuts and seeds (especially pumpkin seeds) are another great source of the nutrient. So, when you start carving your pumpkins next month, make sure to save and roast the magnesium-packed seeds from the pulp.
All in all, magnesium is just too important to your health. I recommend 400 mg daily of a magnesium supplement from my recommended list above. Also, be sure to consult with your doctor before changing or adding to your current supplementation routine.
Always on the side of science,
Marc S. Micozzi, M.D., Ph.D.
#Hedy1234: Thanks for the helpful information.
#Magnesium #ChiaSeeds #Costco
Take with water and a shot glass full of Chia !!
Copied
“Chia seeds are among the healthiest foods on the planet.
They are loaded with nutrients that can have important benefits for your body and brain.
Here are 11 health benefits of chia seeds that are supported by human studies.
1. Chia Seeds Deliver a Massive Amount of Nutrients With Very Few CaloriesChia seeds are tiny black seeds from the plant Salvia Hispanica, which is related to the mint.
This plant grows natively in South America.
A 1 ounce (28 grams) serving of chia seeds contains (1, 2):
Fiber: 11 grams.
Protein: 4 grams.
Fat: 9 grams (5 of which are Omega-3s).
Calcium: 18% of the RDA.
Manganese: 30% of the RDA.
Magnesium: 30% of the RDA.
Phosphorus: 27% of the RDA.
They also contain a decent amount of Zinc, Vitamin B3 (Niacin), Potassium, Vitamin B1 (Thiamine) and Vitamin B2.
This is particularly impressive when you consider that this is just a single ounce, which supplies only 137 calories and one gram of digestible carbohydrate!”
#ChiaSeeds #FlaxSeeds
I prefer flax seeds over chia seeds although they are both very healthy. Flax seeds appear to have anti-cancer effects that chia seeds don’t have.
https://nutritionfacts.org/video/which-are-better-chia-seeds-or-flax-seeds/
#ChiaSeeds
Trying to obtain calcium and magnesium for bone density for cancer survivor. Chia seeds fit the bill.
Flax Seeds over 500 calories?
Flax seeds
Calories 534
Water 7 %
Protein 18.3 g
Carbs 28.9 g
Sugar 1.6 g
Fiber 27.3 g
Fat 42.2 g
Saturated 3.66 g
Monounsaturated 7.53 g
Polyunsaturated 28.73
Omega-3 22.81 g
Omega-6 5.9 g
Trans fat ~
When speaking of seeds… one must also consider the incredible nutritional value of Hemp seed. Pricey yes, but it is a complete protein – with all 9 essential amino acids present. Check it out… healing and tasty.
https://manitobaharvest.com/hemp-hearts-compared-super-seeds/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/12/seeds-to-eat_n_3248618.html
except they pop when they burn 🙂
$ARGS-Argos Therapeutics to Hold Conference Call to Discuss Update on the Phase 3 ADAPT Trial Presented at the ESMO 2017 Congress
DURHAM, N.C., Sept. 19, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Argos Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:ARGS), an immuno-oncology company focused on the development and commercialization of individualized immunotherapies based on the Arcelis® precision immunotherapy technology platform, will hold a conference call to discuss an update on the ongoing Phase 3 ADAPT clinical trial evaluating Rocapuldencel-T for the treatment of metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) that was recently presented at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) 2017 Congress. Robert Figlin, MD, Professor and Chairman, Division of Hematology and Oncology at Cedars Sinai Medical Center and co-principal investigator for the ADAPT trial, delivered the oral presentation at the ESMO Conference and will participate in the call.
http://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/argos-therapeutics-to-hold-conference-call-to-discuss-update-on-the-phase-3-adapt-trial-presented-20170919-00593
I had kept an eye on $APTO after stock plunged to .89, watched large Templeton Funds buy, I went overweight then. Story for ARGS slightly similar, and went overweight two weeks ago. Thanks for all here, can’t say enough, and hope to have a APTO party with Bill Rice and other fortunate Gummies someday.
$CAPR
Capricor Therapeutics, Inc. (CAPR) Insider MANZO LOUIS bought 10,000 Shares Of Stock
https://economicsandmoney.com/2017/09/19/capricor-therapeutics-inc-capr-insider-manzo-louis-bought-10000-shares-of-stock/
Long Capricor as of today
$CAPR long – “The most recent open market insider trade was Buy of 10,000 shares on a day where the closing price was 3.1. The insider, MANZO LOUIS, now holds 138,384 shares of CAPR.” May 11,2017 filing date. May 9, 2017 transaction date. http://irdirect.net/filings/viewer/index/1133869/000114420417026396/
New Thread: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2017/09/cisco-chang-charlie-part-3/ Happy Capricor!
Don’t need voclosporin for LN when there’s a drug for lupus. IMM.l up a lot this year.
https://lupusnewstoday.com/2017/09/29/lupuzor-shows-strong-safety-results-as-lupus-treatment-in-phase-3-trial/
Willfully or not, you’ve got it quite wrong. To equate therapy for LN and SLE is very fallacious. The drug in the report lacks the robustness to go after LN. And there is no evidence whatsoever that therapy of SLE with it would prevent treated patients from getting LN. Patients treated with Lupuzor may yet prove to have serious problems with infectious disease and cancer.