This is a continuation of the predecessor thread titled:
“Gold, Silver, and Hard Assets…Summer 2017”.
After my lengthy introduction, guidelines, disclosures, position summary,and warning notices, I will re-submit some meaty posts on Ivanhoe Mines which I think deserve attention and provide a timely change of emphasis; and I will also summarize the findings from the Hendrixnuzzles Crystal Ball, which has been churning out ideas that may or may not come to pass in the near future.
PURPOSE The purpose of this thread is find and discuss good investment ideas in gold, silver, and other selected metals, with a long-term or intermediate timeframe. We are not a short-term trading thread, although occasionally we may perceive short-term trading opportunities based on anticipated news, drilling, or transactions.
FOCUS Gold, silver, copper, nickel, platinum group metals, zinc, uranium.
NOT A FOCUS: Scandium, cobalt, aluminum, manganese, lithium, and aluminum; metals other than copper and nickel that are primary targets in battery technology, and developments in extraction and technology These are better discussed on the thread “Scandium, Cobalt, and Water Purification: Cleanteq Holdings”. Some overlap is unavoidable but this should be kept to the minimum amount possible.
AUTHOR BIAS AND BAGGAGE I have major two themes: long-term capital preservation based on metals, especially precious and demand industrials;
and big capital gain speculations based on them.
This second theme can lead to very speculative investments in exploration and development. This can be in conflict with the theme of capital preservation.
I cannot fully reconcile this paradox. So I can understand if a reader does not feel inclined to put money into these speculations. .
I favor royalty companies, developers, small cap miners, developers, and explorers. I have significant positions in physical metals but it is boring to talk about them and our focus here is elsewhere.
I believe in the concept of optionality as propounded by Rick Rule. Because of this I am of the opinion that , in general, MINERS SUCK. I am wary of big-cap miners, ETFs, and indexes. I am strongly influenced by leadership and management. Most of my metal investments are not miners unless the mine is run by Robert Friedland.
I will consider big caps when a bull market is established. I like low-priced speculations with good discovery odds and clear chances of being taken over or JV’d.
My favorite jurisdictions are Canada and Australia, but I will look at sketchy neighborhoods if I think the story is compelling.
I have become a big fan of Robert Friedland. His companies have evolved into a major component of my portfolio and interest.
I believe gold and silver prices have been manipulated and suppressed by powerful groups, including and especially governments and central banks.
I think these efforts will eventually fail, but they can visit havoc on prices and values in the meantime ,and keep prices artificially low for long periods.
Accordingly, I have shifted a fair allocation of my holdings away from gold and silver, and into copper and other metals that I believe will benefit from the trend towards electrification.
My percentage of gold and silver assets is still probably much higher than that of most people. .
POSITIONS My largest positions are Cleanteq Holdings, Sandstorm Gold, Ivanhoe Mines, and Pretium Resources.
If I want to reduce exposure to gold, the gold sector, I would reduce Pretium before Sandstorm.
My positions, in order of size within category::
Miners, even though they suck:
$IVPAF Ivanhoe Mines (copper, zinc, PGMs)
$PVG Pretium Resources (gold)
$MAG Mag Silver (silver)##
$MUX Mcewen Mining (gold, copper)##
$SAND Sandstorm Gold
$WPM Wheaton Precious Metals
$CTEQF Cleanteq (scandium/nickel/cobalt- discuss on other thread) ##
$SA Seabridge Gold (gold)
$BCEKF Bear Creek Mining (silver)
$ERDCF Erdene Resource Development (gold)
$PTNUF Platina Resources (cobalt/scandium, discussed on other thread)
$UEC Uranium Energy Corp (uranium)
$CDBMF Cordoba Minerals (copper)
$CMDRF Commander Resources (nickel-discuss on other thread)
$CLASF Colorado Resources (gold)
$KNTNF K92 Mining (gold)##
$CNRIF Condor Resources (silver)
$CCNCF Kaizen Exploration (copper)
$KVLQF Kivalliq Energy (uranium, multi-metal)
Physical and redeemables:
$PSLV (silver bullion redeemable physical trust)
Physical gold and silver
CTEQF is a technology and water play besides a being a mine developer
MUX is a gold miner but I have it for their copper prospect.
K92 is a producing but needs discoveries so I class it as an explorer.
MAG is considered a miner but they are more similar to a royalty company
DISCLOSURES. I am a retired executive and an amateur investor. I like both fundamental and technical analysis.
I also surrender to flights of intuition and paranormal insights when they come to me.
I am a medium-term to long-term position player and prefer to discuss stock investment in that context. As more of my capital moves into conviction stocks, my transactions have become smaller and less frequent, and my standards for taking new positions have become higher.
I am not an expert in any of the commodities discussed, nor am I qualified to give advice. And by no means do I have any expertise in geology or metallurgy.
I express opinions and positions. These are not advice or recommendations, which I remind you I am unqualified to make. I change my mind frequently and my opinions are subject to change at any moment. I intend to keep the thread current but I cannot guarantee that I will tell anyone when I have changed my mind on a particular stock .
CAVEAT EMPTOR. You are responsible for your decisions, and I am responsible for mine. Do your own due diligence.
Everyone makes mistakes and I make more than my share.
Political developments and topics should be introduced only when they have a clear relevance to the commodities or companies under discussion.
Given the national and world situations, an occasional outburst of outrage, disgust or indignation is tolerated and understandable. .
I would like to operate in a friendly, honest, and constructive atmosphere.
So try to be nice. Try to have reasons for your opinions. Facts and speculations are both welcome, but be sure to distinguish between them.
Spelling, punctuation, and grammar matter. Everybody makes typographical errors and I am as guilty as the next person. But If you make a lot mistakes or are careless about these things, you are sure to be making errors in other more important things. So it detracts from your credibility even if your idea is good. Besides, it’s annoying.
As thread moderator I reserve to myself the role of referee, censor, arbiter, and Grand Poobah, subject to the over-arching authority of Travis, who owns the site and who has on occasion exercised his right to ruthlessly censor and suppress my radical blatherings.
This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.