Gold, Silver, Copper, and Hard Assets…Fall 2017

By hendrixnuzzles, September 21, 2017

This is a continuation of the predecessor thread titled:

“Gold, Silver, and Hard Assets…Summer 2017”.

After my lengthy introduction, guidelines, disclosures, position summary,and warning notices, I will re-submit some meaty posts on Ivanhoe Mines which I think deserve attention and provide a timely change of emphasis; and I will also summarize the findings from the Hendrixnuzzles Crystal Ball, which has been churning out ideas that may or may not come to pass in the near future.

PURPOSE The purpose of this thread is find and discuss good investment ideas in gold, silver, and other selected metals, with a long-term or intermediate timeframe. We are not a short-term trading thread, although occasionally we may perceive short-term trading opportunities based on anticipated news, drilling, or transactions.

FOCUS Gold, silver, copper, nickel, platinum group metals, zinc, uranium.

NOT A FOCUS: Scandium, cobalt, aluminum, manganese, lithium, and aluminum; metals other than copper and nickel that are primary targets in battery technology, and developments in extraction and technology These are better discussed on the thread “Scandium, Cobalt, and Water Purification: Cleanteq Holdings”. Some overlap is unavoidable but this should be kept to the minimum amount possible.

AUTHOR BIAS AND BAGGAGE I have major two themes: long-term capital preservation based on metals, especially precious and demand industrials;
and big capital gain speculations based on them.

This second theme can lead to very speculative investments in exploration and development. This can be in conflict with the theme of capital preservation.
I cannot fully reconcile this paradox. So I can understand if a reader does not feel inclined to put money into these speculations. .

I favor royalty companies, developers, small cap miners, developers, and explorers. I have significant positions in physical metals but it is boring to talk about them and our focus here is elsewhere.
I believe in the concept of optionality as propounded by Rick Rule. Because of this I am of the opinion that , in general, MINERS SUCK. I am wary of big-cap miners, ETFs, and indexes. I am strongly influenced by leadership and management. Most of my metal investments are not miners unless the mine is run by Robert Friedland.
I will consider big caps when a bull market is established. I like low-priced speculations with good discovery odds and clear chances of being taken over or JV’d.

My favorite jurisdictions are Canada and Australia, but I will look at sketchy neighborhoods if I think the story is compelling.
I have become a big fan of Robert Friedland. His companies have evolved into a major component of my portfolio and interest.
I believe gold and silver prices have been manipulated and suppressed by powerful groups, including and especially governments and central banks.
I think these efforts will eventually fail, but they can visit havoc on prices and values in the meantime ,and keep prices artificially low for long periods.
Accordingly, I have shifted a fair allocation of my holdings away from gold and silver, and into copper and other metals that I believe will benefit from the trend towards electrification.
My percentage of gold and silver assets is still probably much higher than that of most people. .

POSITIONS My largest positions are Cleanteq Holdings, Sandstorm Gold, Ivanhoe Mines, and Pretium Resources.
If I want to reduce exposure to gold, the gold sector, I would reduce Pretium before Sandstorm.

My positions, in order of size within category::
Miners, even though they suck:
$IVPAF Ivanhoe Mines (copper, zinc, PGMs)
$PVG Pretium Resources (gold)
$MAG Mag Silver (silver)##
$MUX Mcewen Mining (gold, copper)##

Royalty/streamers:
$SAND Sandstorm Gold
$WPM Wheaton Precious Metals

Developers:
$CTEQF Cleanteq (scandium/nickel/cobalt- discuss on other thread) ##
$SA Seabridge Gold (gold)
$BCEKF Bear Creek Mining (silver)
$ERDCF Erdene Resource Development (gold)
$PTNUF Platina Resources (cobalt/scandium, discussed on other thread)
$UEC Uranium Energy Corp (uranium)

Exploration speculations:
$CDBMF Cordoba Minerals (copper)
$CMDRF Commander Resources (nickel-discuss on other thread)
$CLASF Colorado Resources (gold)
$KNTNF K92 Mining (gold)##
$CNRIF Condor Resources (silver)
$CCNCF Kaizen Exploration (copper)
$KVLQF Kivalliq Energy (uranium, multi-metal)

Physical and redeemables:
$PSLV (silver bullion redeemable physical trust)
Physical gold and silver

## notes:
CTEQF is a technology and water play besides a being a mine developer
MUX is a gold miner but I have it for their copper prospect.
K92 is a producing but needs discoveries so I class it as an explorer.
MAG is considered a miner but they are more similar to a royalty company
****
DISCLOSURES. I am a retired executive and an amateur investor. I like both fundamental and technical analysis.
I also surrender to flights of intuition and paranormal insights when they come to me.

I am a medium-term to long-term position player and prefer to discuss stock investment in that context. As more of my capital moves into conviction stocks, my transactions have become smaller and less frequent, and my standards for taking new positions have become higher.

I am not an expert in any of the commodities discussed, nor am I qualified to give advice. And by no means do I have any expertise in geology or metallurgy.

I express opinions and positions. These are not advice or recommendations, which I remind you I am unqualified to make. I change my mind frequently and my opinions are subject to change at any moment. I intend to keep the thread current but I cannot guarantee that I will tell anyone when I have changed my mind on a particular stock .

CAVEAT EMPTOR. You are responsible for your decisions, and I am responsible for mine. Do your own due diligence.

Everyone makes mistakes and I make more than my share.

***
Political developments and topics should be introduced only when they have a clear relevance to the commodities or companies under discussion.
Given the national and world situations, an occasional outburst of outrage, disgust or indignation is tolerated and understandable. .

I would like to operate in a friendly, honest, and constructive atmosphere.
So try to be nice. Try to have reasons for your opinions. Facts and speculations are both welcome, but be sure to distinguish between them.

Spelling, punctuation, and grammar matter. Everybody makes typographical errors and I am as guilty as the next person. But If you make a lot mistakes or are careless about these things, you are sure to be making errors in other more important things. So it detracts from your credibility even if your idea is good. Besides, it’s annoying.

As thread moderator I reserve to myself the role of referee, censor, arbiter, and Grand Poobah, subject to the over-arching authority of Travis, who owns the site and who has on occasion exercised his right to ruthlessly censor and suppress my radical blatherings.

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.

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Griffin
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Griffin

$BXTMF – Brixton Metals Drills 6.7m of 937.3 g/t AgEq and 3.0m of 0.25% CoEq at its Hudson Bay Project in the Cobalt Camp, Ontario http://brixtonmetals.com/brixton-metals-drills-6-7m-of-937-3-gt-ageq-and-3-0m-of-0-25-coeq-at-its-hudson-bay-project-in-the-cobalt-camp-ontario/ “Highlights from 6 drill holes Drill hole HB18-06 intersected 6.70 metres of 625.80 g/t Ag, 0.26% Cu, 0.45% Zn and 0.12% Pb (937.29 g/t AgEq) from 36.00m depth Drill hole HB-18-04 intersected 3.00m of 0.22% Co and 0.48% Cu, 17.3 g/t Ag (0.25% CoEq) from 46.00m depth Drill hole HB-18-05 intersected 0.71% Co, 10.3 g/t Ag, 0.46% Ni, 0.37% Zn (0.80% CoEq) over 1.00 metres from 56.00m depth Drill hole HB18-07 intersected 5.00m of… Read more »

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eagerbeaver
Irregular
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eagerbeaver

Apologies if this has already been posted but I have not seen it.

KINSHASA, Democratic Republic of Congo, March 08, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE)

Here is Robert Friedland representing the collective views of the DRC miners and reading a joint statement to the press following six hours of talks between senior members of the DRC Government, including President Joseph Kabila, and senior executives of the mining companies, including the CEO’s of China Molybdenum, Glencore and Randgold. MMG and Zijin Mining had senior executive representation. Ivanhoe Mines was represented by Executive Chairman Robert Friedland.

RF speaks at 0.53 in English.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTl-EMl4J3g&feature=youtu.be

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secretsquirrel
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secretsquirrel

International mining companies including Glencore (OTCPK:GLCNF, OTCPK:GLNCY), Randgold (NASDAQ:GOLD) and Ivanhoe Mines (OTCQX:IVPAF) quit the Democratic Republic of Congo’s chamber of commerce, saying the industry body no longer represents their interests after the introduction of the country’s new mining law.
The miners oppose the law passed by parliament in January that raises royalties on minerals and removes a clause that protected miners from changes to the fiscal and customs regime for 10 years.
At least five mines, which produce more than 85% of Congo’s copper, cobalt and gold production, reportedly resigned from the industry group.

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eagerbeaver
Irregular
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eagerbeaver

Squirrel,

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3339587-largest-miners-congo-quit-industry-group-amid-sharp-tax-dispute

https://www.reuters.com/article/congo-mining/glencore-randgold-mines-quit-congolese-industry-body-ahead-of-govt-talks-idUSL3N1QX51R

This probably explains why Ivanhoe stock ( IVPAF ) is down over 11% this morning. On the flip side, bad news from the DRC can only benefit resource miners elsewhere, including Ardea ( ARRRF ), CleanTeQ ( CTEQF ) and Australia Mines ( AUZ.ASX ).

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secretsquirrel
Irregular
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secretsquirrel

Swings and roundabouts if you holding both!

Does copper fall under the same tax bracket as cobalt over there?

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deanbob
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👍690
deanbob

Long IVPAF and multiple OZ resources positions. Given how the DRC arbitrarily ignored/cancelled the old mining contract/law, they seem to be able to change any part of any contract law at will with, so far, impunity!

secretsquirrel
Irregular
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secretsquirrel

https://youtu.be/QKEmIqgLKaY

BBC, very recent interview.

For anyone who missed it, as sure I posted previously, yes of course they’ll do what they want. Not sure any miners there can really do that much, but curb future investments,

Watch the video. Mentions mining amongst other things. All comes down to money of course.

eagerbeaver
Irregular
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eagerbeaver

I don’t know Squirriel.

I do hold both. Presumably the miners involved in the DRC have some legal recourse. The matter might get tied up in the courts.

hendrixnuzzles
Guest
hendrixnuzzles

Squirrel, no, cobalt is in a special “Let’s Screw the Miners” category. As far as who is going to get hurt, looking at it realistically, I am of the opinion that Ivanhoe will be all right, for the following reasons: 1. Their margins are so high they can afford what other mines cannot. 2. They are not targets of the cobalt taxes. 3. They have cut in the DRC government to a higher degree than the others. 4. The DRC has said that they are going to negotiate with individual miners…divide and conquer. They cannot hurt Ivanhoe very much without… Read more »

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secretsquirrel
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secretsquirrel

https://youtu.be/kh04YveH4uk

Walk through the geology” Eric Coffin and David Broughton, Aston Bay on March 13, 2018

https://astonbayholdings.com/management-board/
Good team by all accounts.

I’m Long this, have been for a while, bought in because of David Broughton’s previous track record. Went red for me for a while but now gone green. High risk, high reward this one!

https://www.ivanhoemines.com/corporate/executive-management/dr-david-broughton/

Long $bay.v

Griffin
Member
👍3168
Griffin

$FYI – Time To Buy Some Nickel Miners
by Matt Bohlsen @SA

Summary
The quality nickel miners have held up well in recent months.
The nickel miner fundamentals are steadily improving, with demand likely to strengthen post 2020 due to the EV boom.
Electric vehicle sales accelerated in 2017 finishing with a 58% increase.
A summary of the nickel miners to consider buying now and my top picks.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4157056-time-buy-nickel-miners?uprof=46&isDirectRoadblock=true

CTEQF long

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secretsquirrel
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secretsquirrel

GGI – Sprott Money News Sprott Money News Weekly Wrap-up – 3.16.18 https://soundcloud.com/sprottmoney/sprott-money-news-weekly-wrap-up-31618 – starts at 11:52. Garibaldi could have a very major discovery in upper British Columbia, it’s a nickel copper cobalt PGM gold silver, they got everything. I would suggest that people would go to these chatlines, Stockhouse and CEO.CA, look at the comments of various people. There are some of the most respected in the nickel copper business. Some originally compared to Voisey’s now Norilsik or Jinchuan which are much much bigger. Voisey’s got taken out at $3.5 billion. Garibaldi is $300 million today. It’s going to… Read more »

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v4t1n4
Member
👍49

You own 20% of their stock? 20% of your portfolio? 20% of a full position?

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eagerbeaver
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eagerbeaver

Squirrel is quoting Eric Sprott in the interview for which the link is provided. It is Eric Sprott who owns just under 20% of Garibaldi.

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SoGiAm
Member
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$DRG @SteveParsons345 congratulations. A few more rigs turning?? | TY
https://twitter.com/KumovaTolga/status/975151025928613889

secretsquirrel
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secretsquirrel

Ivanhoe Mines issues 2017 full-year results and review of exploration and development activities TORONTO, March 21, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Ivanhoe Mines (TSX: IVN) (OTCQX:IVPAF) today announced its financial results for the year ended December 31, 2017. All figures are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise stated. Ivanhoe Mines is a Canadian mining company focused on advancing its three mine-development projects in Southern Africa: The Platreef platinum-palladium-nickel-copper-gold discovery in South Africa; the Kamoa-Kakula copper discovery in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC); and the extensive upgrading of the historic Kipushi zinc-copper-lead-germanium mine, also in the DRC. Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. Benjamin Sekano… Read more »

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hendrixnuzzles
Guest
hendrixnuzzles

$CNRIF Condor Resources…long…activity update

http://www.condorresources.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=819336&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Condor-Provides-Updates-on-Work-Programs

More misses than hits in exploration for me in recent months, but I continue to hold Condor for silver.

Also still very long $ERDCF, may add, prices are really low. Tough to seriously consider more gold exposure with cobalt exploding, vanadium on deck, and little exposure in copper other than Ivanhoe.

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denton
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denton

$KNTNF long. Clarus Securities Initiates K92 Coverage With $1.60 Target Price. I have requested, but not read the report, but figured there may be some facts in it that might be helpful in understanding the opportunity. From what I remember, Claurus Securities championed a $16M financing for K92 last year, so this may be a self serving report. Always appreciate any thoughts or feedback. Today, Clarus Securities has initiated coverage on K92 Mining Inc (KNT: TSX V, KNTNF: OTC, 92K:Germany), with a $1.60 target price and a Speculative Buy recommendation. To get a copy of this report, please call the… Read more »

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denton
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denton

$KNTNF long. More drilling news and progress on expanding the property.

http://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/03/29/1455501/0/en/K92-Announces-Results-from-First-Underground-Exploration-Drill-Hole-from-Kora-Northern-Extension.html

deanbob
Member
👍690
deanbob

$KNTNF long Thanks for keep us updated. The drill results continue to be good. It is interesting that with the existing onsite plant the “Initial capital cost is estimated to be $13.8-million (U.S.), including the $3.3-million (U.S.) for the plant upgrade identified in the Mincore scoping study, but excluding the proposed Kora exploration inclines and diamond drilling;”. This should be easy with on-going production. And even longer term, “sustaining capital cost is estimated to a further $64-million (U.S.) spent over the life of the Kora mining for 25-metre levels, or $83-million (U.S.) for 15-metre levels; ” I guess could be… Read more »

denton
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denton

$IVPAF now long. International mining companies, including Ivanhoe Mines, propose specific changes to enhance effectiveness of D.R. Congo’s new mining code 8:49 am ET March 29, 2018 (Globe Newswire) Print Ivanhoe Mines (TSX:IVN) (OTCQX:IVPAF) announced today that a formal proposal outlining recommended changes to the 2018 national mining code has been submitted to the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Ministry of Mines by a group of international mining companies, which includes Ivanhoe Mines. A joint statement issued today by the group of international companies active in these discussions in the DRC said their proposed changes would address the DRC government’s expectation… Read more »

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