written by reader Overall performance record of teased and solved stocks seems too good to be true?

By hal4096, September 1, 2017

Longtime reader of Stock Gumshoe’s teaser solutions but now a brand new Irregulars subscriber which unlocked a WHOLE LOT of additional information on the website.

Looking at the teased/solved stocks performance spreadsheets, I noticed that the winners (in green) FAR outnumbered the losers (in red) both in absolute terms and in comparison with the S&P 500. Very few zeroed out even if I assume that all stocks marked N.A. for present price have also zeroed out.

Is all this an illusion or am I overlooking something? If real, it eems like a simple strategy of investing $1000 (or some other uniform amount) in each ”solved” stock would be a runaway winner!

Hal

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Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
September 5, 2017 7:11 pm

Are you looking at just this year? Over the past decade, the ratio has been roughly 2/3 losers and 1/3 winners, though the number beating the S&P 500 has been lower than that most of the time. The number of 100%+ gainers has typically been pretty similar to the number of 95%+ losers, though each year is different.

As of this moment, the 2017 numbers are that almost exactly half of the stocks have beaten the S&P 500 for the same period this year. For 2016, also using “to date” numbers, it is currently similar (85 stocks of 200 beat the S&P). Both of those years are better than typical performance. Whether that’s because teasers are getting a little better, or because story stocks have simply outperformed in the last couple years because of the bull market and the relative strength in technology, mining and biotech stocks where a lot of teaser stocks are concentrated, I don’t know.

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