Overall performance record of teased and solved stocks seems too good to be true?
by hal4096 | September 1, 2017 5:52 pm
Longtime reader of Stock Gumshoe’s teaser solutions but now a brand new Irregulars subscriber which unlocked a WHOLE LOT of additional information on the website.
Looking at the teased/solved stocks performance spreadsheets, I noticed that the winners (in green) FAR outnumbered the losers (in red) both in absolute terms and in comparison with the S&P 500. Very few zeroed out even if I assume that all stocks marked N.A. for present price have also zeroed out.
Is all this an illusion or am I overlooking something? If real, it eems like a simple strategy of investing $1000 (or some other uniform amount) in each ”solved” stock would be a runaway winner!
Hal
Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2017/09/microblog-overall-performance-record-of-teased-and-solved-stocks-seems-too-good-to-be-true/
Are you looking at just this year? Over the past decade, the ratio has been roughly 2/3 losers and 1/3 winners, though the number beating the S&P 500 has been lower than that most of the time. The number of 100%+ gainers has typically been pretty similar to the number of 95%+ losers, though each year is different.
As of this moment, the 2017 numbers are that almost exactly half of the stocks have beaten the S&P 500 for the same period this year. For 2016, also using “to date” numbers, it is currently similar (85 stocks of 200 beat the S&P). Both of those years are better than typical performance. Whether that’s because teasers are getting a little better, or because story stocks have simply outperformed in the last couple years because of the bull market and the relative strength in technology, mining and biotech stocks where a lot of teaser stocks are concentrated, I don’t know.