written by reader Questions about 2 of Agora’s pitches

By Anonymous Questions, September 25, 2017

Hello Travis,

I am an Irregular Gummie who loves what you do! It is great to have a place to test and validate (or mostly not) all the wild claims out there.

This week I saw a pitch for Weekly Wealth Alert, Alan Knuckman’s ”patent pending” ”weekly paycheck indicator,” which is basically an analysis of spikes in options activity for any stocks, leading to a giant leap in value within about 7 days. He says something called ”fast-cash contracts” are the best vehicle. I wonder what those are. He claims they are not options and are cheaper than the stock shares themselves. This WW Alert is published by Joe Schriefer at Agora. I plan to call and ask these questions but I waited too long today to call from the west coast.

I looked up Knuckman on your website and found a mostly-debunked offering from 2015, I believe it was.

Lou Basinese appears to be about to introduce something along the same lines–predicting which stocks will jump in price. He is called it the M.A.R.K.E.D. system.

I’d love to hear your thoughts.

Thanks for your amazingly helpful, honest, down-to-earth work.

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.

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Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
September 25, 2017 4:54 pm

Most systems that claim to identify stock movements in the short term like that are going to fail most of the time, at least in the eyes of individual investors who are trying to trade based on those movements. There are whole office buildings full of MIT data scientists creating these kinds of quantitative indicators, testing them, and tracking them, and if they can get it right 55% of the time they make billions… but even they struggle much of the time, because supercomputing means that any regular indicators that should serve as quantitative triggers stop working as soon as more than a few folks start using them.

And when it comes to the really short term stuff, like options or futures, individuals are even more at a disadvantage. I haven’t written much about futures, but I get a lot of complaints about options trading systems — partly that’s because they’re just overpromised, they sell these systems with the headline numbers of 100%, 500% or 1,000% gains but they can’t deliver that for a whole portfolio, but often it’s just because options are so thinly traded for all but the biggest stocks that any trade a newsletter recommends to its subscribers quickly overwhelms the market and sends the price out of wack.

That’s just my quick reaction, I haven’t looked at either of these pitches or systems recently.

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