by DrKSSMDPhD | October 20, 2017 6:00 am
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2017/10/aurinia-rd-day-new-york-city-october-20-2017/
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$ NITE UW Long
Nightstar Therapeutics initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush
Wedbush analyst David Nierengarten started Nightstar Therapeutics with an Outperform rating and $29 price target as he believes shares are undervalued, given its lead asset, NSRREP1, is set to enter Phase 3 with curative potential for choroideremia, a rare inherited retinal disease, in a marketplace with no other approved therapies.
Nightstar Therapeutics initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital
BMO Capital analyst Matthew Luchini initiated Nightstar Therapeutics with an Outperform and $30 price target telling investors its lead product, NSR-REP1, could transform the treatment of choroideremia, an orphan retinal disease associated with progressive vision loss and eventual blindness with no treatment options. The analyst sees NSR-REP1 as a $710M peak sales opportunity with additional upside from Nightstar’s second gene therapy program, NSRRPGR for XRLP, another genetic retinal disease with no treatment options, which could be a $675M peak sales opportunity. :the
$SRRA Long
Sierra Oncology upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies
Jefferies analyst Maury Raycroft upgraded Sierra Oncology to Buy and raised his price target for the shares to $4.00 from $1.50. The company is “rapidly advancing” SRA737 through dose-escalation in two clinical studies and the program is “under-the-radar,” Raycroft tells investors in a research note. He believes Sierra’s clinical strategy is “differentiated and innovative” and recommends buying the shares ahead of the Q1 of 2018 data.
$APTO LONG
Aptose Biosciences resumed with a Buy at Roth Capital
Roth Capital analyst Jotin Marango resumed Aptose Biosciences with a Buy rating and $5 price target as he sees fundamental value discounted due to formulation and manufacturing mishaps.
$CWBR has a poster presentation out today – if I’m not mistaken – at AASLD17. Not sure of the timing of their presentation, but looking forward to the details of this presentation.
long $CWBR
This is for PGathua, who asked recently about $STML. The company presented at Rodman and Renshaw, and I was struck by the large number of corporate types there from Stemline, until I realized Stemmie is HQ’d in NYC. They were giddy, alluding auspiciously to upcoming positive events. I can tell you that people in the audience distinctly suspected they might be alluding to buyout. I don’t know that positive 401 data would so activate people as that data is widely anticipated to be positive. I think it’s baked into present share price.
I’ll be frank: the 701 program seems like a total waste of time. Not sure whey they’re bothering. It has failure written all over it.
The 801 program could compete seriously with $KPTI.
I need to rummage through my stuff and see if Wainwright has given things a PT here, Personally, I see it at around $25 in a year all things considered if not bought out. What could a buyout fetch? That is tough to know because BPDCN is such a rare neoplasm. We don’t yet know how widely applicable targeting the IL3-receptor is as an approach to getting at cancer stem cells.
Long $STML.
$STML thank you so much Doc. Really appreciate your time and input. I will take their positive vibes with a grain of salt (even though I expect SL-401 to be positive) keeping in mind they have a shelf-registration.
Paul: when you have time, you might eyeball this paper (full text at link). It’s longish, but it presents the context and issues involved in chasing cancer stem cells. For me the take home message here is that Stemline is using one of many approachs and is by no means a be-all-end-all Holy Grail company. Very complex field. Which makes chasing BPDCN a real niche pursuit. I just don’t personally think buyout is a foregone conclusion. I look out over a potential field of suitors and ask, Who would be a good fit for Stemline? And no clear answer occurs to me, really. A couple need chemistry to have nuptials, and Stemline is still in its adolescence, trying to find itself. They need a good follow-on act and 701 is NOT it! Still, I like them, I admit.
oops: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4792551/
Thinking about setting my $12.5 Dec calls free. Did not have a grasp that the success was most likely baked in stock price already. Was thinking that they might get high teens on a positive readout. Thanks again for the update.
Pondering increasing my AKTX position…
ATNM still looks interesting, management is a hard swallow. (any plan to enter Doc? Or still waiting for management to prove themselves?)
some more CLRBZ might need to hop on over in the shopping cart
BLPH, APTO, ARTH are still my three largest holdings. Really excited about 2018 with these bad boys. APTO is @ $5.00 if everything goes as planned by year end. BLPH hopefully +++ (still seems so crazy undervalued… 50MC with potential $Billions in potential sales? Is this one still super exciting to you Doc and others?) Not sure where ARTH will be by 18YE but $2 might be a reasonable goal.
HALO looking tasty. RXDX is climbing like its on the stairway to heaven. PTGX is kindling in the fire, ready to scorch the earth. CWBR a giant in the making. What an awesome buffet. Thanks to all Gummies and especially Doc KSS!
Trying to figure out who is going to play the supporting roles in my biotech portfolio (sometime feels more like a drama), good problem to have for sure. How are others thinking about filling out their portfolios??
Honor roll post.
I was burned badly by ATNM before. I won’t rule out re-entering, but I worry there’s a dynastic curse on this stock.
$many tickers
“How are others thinking about filling out their portfolios??”
Particularly interesting question, thank you levbrans, because for once, Iยดm not!
All I have at the moment, is APTO x4, CWBR x4, ARTHx2, HALO calls x2, BLPH x2, and single servings of ESPR, CLRB and one non-bio (NBEV)
To build the CWBR, I sold ZFGN, REPH, CAPR, RGLS, AFMD, BIOC and even SRRA and PTGX.
In the future, when I become so obscenely wealthy from my current holdings that I just have to distribute a bit more (:-)), I hope to return to CAPR, SRRA, PTGX, ABVX, PIRS, AKBA, AKTX, SNDX, and of course AUPH. But right now I can’t think of anywhere I’d be happier to have my money than in those 8 core positions. In my view they offer an unduplicatable combination of good management, reasonably low risk (for biotech) and potentially huge multiples not too far away!
$BLPH ow Bellerophon I estimate their current mkt cap is $74m after recent share issuance. Tremendous upside here but it’s not immediately apparent to most investors I suspect because they decided to tackle their smallest indication first (probably for financial reasons) as shown by page 7 of this presentation https://seekingalpha.com/article/4109922-bellerophon-therapeutics-blph-presents-ladenburg-thalmann-2017-healthcare-conference
$CLRB LONG
Cellectar Biosciences, Inc. (Nasdaq:CLRB), an oncology-focused, clinical stage biotechnology company (the company), today announces the design of the multiple dose fifth cohort of its Phase I dose escalation safety trial of lead PDC compound, CLR 131, in relapse or refractory multiple myeloma. Cohort 5 will utilize two 15.625 mCI/m2 doses given one week apart with the total combined dose equaling 31.25 mCi/m2, the same total dose provided to patients that resulted in a partial response in Cohort 4. In previous cohorts, CLR 131 was given in a single infusion.
In September, the trials Data Monitoring Committee (DMC) determined that the fourth cohort single dose of 31.25 mCi/m2 was safe and tolerated. In addition, the DMC determined that the use of a split, or repeat dose might be advantageous. Given internal company data and recently announced results of preclinical studies in which 2 doses of CLR 131 demonstrated a statistically significant improvement in survival benefits and reduction of tumor volume in multiple mouse models (April 27, 2017), the company has enhanced the studys protocol such that subsequent cohorts will include repeat dosing.
Given the encouraging results weve observed to date in previous cohorts, we hope to see similar, or perhaps even improved safety results in this arm of the trial, said Natalie Callander, M.D., professor of medicine, director, University of Wisconsin Carbone Cancer Center Myeloma Clinical Program, and the studys lead investigator. Previous participants have asked us if it was possible to receive additional doses, as this therapy has been so well tolerated.
Patients participating in the fifth cohort will receive a total of two doses of CLR 131 as 30-minute infusions on their first and seventh days. They will then be evaluated over the course of 85 days to determine the safety and efficacy of the treatment as per the study protocol. During the previous cohort, one of three evaluable patients experienced a partial response to treatment with CLR 131, while the other two achieved stable disease. All Cohort 4 patients had heavily pretreated relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma (greater than five prior lines) and high degree of tumor burden upon entry into the trial, and the company expects to recruit similar trial subjects for Cohort 5. Despite the challenging patient population enrolled to date, 89 percent of all Phase 1 patients achieved a clinical benefit response.
This fifth cohort represents an important opportunity to better understand the clinical utility of a split dose regimen and to further explore the safety and efficacy of CLR 131. Utilizing two doses provides an opportunity to increase the total amount of drug delivered to the patients which could result in an improvement in efficacy while maintaining similar or better safety profile, said Jim Caruso, president and CEO of Cellectar Biosciences. Clinical assessment, along with the improved benefits demonstrated by two doses in preclinical studies, suggest to us that the protocol changes should enhance our chances to see improved patient outcomes in this and future study arms.
About CLR 13
I’ve had some previous-company interaction with some of the current team and board: those I know are mediocre (at best). Doc KSS, I trust your instincts here and bet you’re right that they pursuing failure.
$SCYX long
SCYNEXIS initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim
Guggenheim analyst Adnan Butt initiated SCYNEXIS with a Buy and $6 price target.
$ AKAO Long
Achaogen (AKAO $13.35) initiated buy with $17 target
$ HALO LONG
Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO) announces the initiation of a multi-arm clinical trial evaluating PEGPH20, Halozyme’s investigational new drug, in combination with atezolizumab (TECENTRIQ), an anti-PDL1 cancer immunotherapy from Genentech, a member of the Roche Group. The combination will be tested in patients with previously treated, locally advanced unresectable or metastatic gastric or gastroesophageal junction cancer.
$HALO – lp
I just bought my first ever call options on HALO. A very modest mix of Jan 2019 30’s and 35’s. Looks like a very strong value to my novice eyes given the activity surrounding the company. Thanks to those who have previously suggested looking into options for this name.
Long $HALO
Agreed Moriarity…..I backed up the truck when the $HALO Jan 2019 $20 calls dipped to .75. They closed today at $2.75….not bad performance after only a couple months. Props to Options Trader for sharing this one to the Gummunity.
A major trial highly likely to give positive topline and move the ball forward and possibly precipitate a Roche buyout next year.
$HALO long Doc, when you say that a major trial is highly likely, are you meaning that it is likely that such a trial will soon begin or that a current trial is likely to give positive topline results to move the ball forward. Thanks.
Was R. Duggan present at the investors meeting? Would be interested in hearing your impression, if any, on his demeanor. Did he ask questions? How was the rapport between him and management?
No worries if you have no comment on these questions…. just curious in light of recent events. Also, thank you for all of the work you do educating and informing us!
I looked for him. He wasn’t there.
An Aurinia fever dream:
Glickman cultivates a right of first refusal relationship with, say, Roche, or with Merck.
Offers them 5M shares @$7 and a board seat.
Suddenly, rancor ceases. Shorts vaporize. Perception of temporal overhang gone.
Ohh to be a fly on the wall in those meetings as suitors line up to acquire $AUPH. That fever dream could surely become a reality…..patience will pay off greatly with $AUPH.
3X Long $AUPH
S3 Analytics says that the top 5 shorts in the Biotech sector added $273 million of mark-to-market profits yesterday.
https://www.s3partners.net/Research/Biotech3.php
Must see. Incredible!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/health/opioids-scale/?utm_term=.64ba96da79ce
$synthetic opioids
Recently, I read that firemen are saving more people from opioid overdoses than fires.
Fires take opioids? ๐
I recenrly read that fireman are saving more people from opioid overdoses than fires. Not hard to believe. Most often Fentanyl mixed with heroin, under less than ideal laboratory conditions.
please omit
Hi Dr. Im new here.
Do you know/have an opinion on VTGN ?
$VTGN np – Gr8estChartSeenISomeTime! ๐
Hello Amit this thread is no longer active . Go to the top of this page and click on Articles,then Articles by Author. Scroll down to Dr KSS’s articles and go from there to “Notes from Torrey Hills Capital Emerging Growth Conference, 13-15 November 2017, San Diego, CA”. That’s the current thread.
$Care to join us on the current thread Amit? Geaux to ANY #ZKSS post and tap in the image…. whall immediately take to his #BioPage… Top thread is usually current ๐ As is the dase at this pint in time. ๐
$NVDA long- Anyone calling the bottom today or shall it be soon? What ya think MisterChart #family? Best2ALL
Finviz.com https://www.wellandgood.com/wp-content/themes/wellgood-2016/assets/img/favicon-32×32.png Do all gapzFill? https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NVDA
Thanks a lot, ill do so.
Hi Amit: Welcome to the gummunity and hail new fellow gumrade well-met. Funny you should ask about $VTGN. Are you reading my mind? Seriously, that one is one the docket for discussion at this Friday’s conference call, beginning about 12:30 pm Eastern time. Hope you can dial in….there are dial-in instructions elsewhere in this thread or Sogiam can guide you to them. If you’re not able to be there, the call is recorded and you can play it back at your leisure. Definitely we shall cover it….and if you don’t mind, I don’t want to steal my own thunder by blabbering here about it.
that was quite a timing of asking about this one… (-;
Thanks for the welcome Doc.. enjoy the community and discussions. Im living outside the US so following the calls through recordings currently.
Do you also follow $ZYME? im long here as well.
Hi Amit: Yes, I’m familiar with $ZYME. Don’t take it personally—-I am not knocking your stock picking prowess—-but we are here to learn from each other and here, I believe, I can help. I really dislike this company and find it overvalued here. My main quibble is with its bispecific antibody program themed around HER-2 where both epitope binding domains go after HER-2, albeit supposedly with orientation toward different moieties within HER-2. To me, this is like hiring the head chef of El Bulli to come to your home and cook dinner, and then asking him to prepare a taco salad for you. Good technology being utterly wasted. What’s that the loyalists cry? It’s going to have more kick than Herceptin alone? Sorry….only one way to prove that, and Herceptin is standard of care. Which means a massive head to head clinical trial in which one will win, one will lose. Got the horses for that $ZYME? I disagree with analysts that things will move up from here and wouldn’t be surprised by submerging share value as people get clued into what’s really going on, how lost mgmt seems and how they are up against real pros like $AFMD (admittedly sputtering here but one that will roar in time). And it gets rather technical, beyond the scope of what we can get deeply into here, but the biparatopic nature of what’s expected to happen here might actually be made less effective by propinquity if HER-2 expression is sufficiently dense (I’m think of the Hook effect in immunology). I am gratified when readers do WELL with their portfolios, when they profit, and I personally think you’d just be better off in one or another of our present long ideas. Don’t mean to disappoint you or upend your world view, but that’s my view. I can’t give you personal investing advice, but I can tell you I’d never buy this stock and that if I woke up and found it in my portfolio I’d jettison as soon as that 9:30 bell goes dingdingding. YOU DESERVE BETTER INVESTMENTS, my friend. You’re a Gummie….an aristocrat. Don’t settle for windswept detritus like this in your holdings.
Thanks Doc. I will definitely consider your (non investment) input seriously regarding $ZYME. Im currently going through all the ocean of materials this community offers (in the google docs).
Out of the various shares you cover positively, im long $AUPH, $MRNS, $VTGN, $PIRS, $AXSM. Im also long the ‘untouchable’ $BCLI, $BLRX and $RDHL, which with respect to them Im considering my next steps. Good luck to all
$AUPH
How low will it go? Looks like back up the dump truck area.
Who knew that Glickman knew how to limbo-dance?
Please tell me: what did so many shareholders take away from the conference that caused this very steep and steady fall in $AUPH? Thank you,
$ticker on every post please.
$XYZ
Coherence-please “cohere” to our rule regarding put the $symbol of the co you are referring to in your response.