Friday File: Gold, Shop and China
by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | October 20, 2017 6:23 pm
More Chatter for the Irregulars
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2017/10/friday-file-gold-shop-and-china/
Travis, What are your current feelings on bitcoin? Would you enter back into the crypto markets? BTC hitting all time highs(again).
Not right now. I can’t make any rational assessment of what the valuation “should” be, so I took my profits (and missed another 30% so far) and I’m out.
I keep coming back to the notion that no alt-currency represents “ownership” of the blockchain technology, and until I understand who reaps the enduringly profitable (probably) legacy of what Satoshi Nakomoto sowed, I cant talk myself into a meaningful position in any of the cryptocurrencies. I love the technology, but the notion of any of these coins being a viable currency or a “store of value” is entirely based on newfound sentiment. When it comes to money that matters, I feel a lot better about established currencies, despite their many flaws, and gold, thanks to a 1,000+ year history as a shiny thing that humans value.
Yet, they keep rising. C’est la vie, it’s OK to not invest in things you don’t understand.
Travis, you’re not going to sell a lot of memberships with reasonable opinions about Bitcoin 😉
What would you need to see to add to your USAU position? These levels are substantially lower than where it was when you first discovered the stock and my guess would be that any news would shoot back to the IPO of around 3 dollars or at least the the price of the first offering after IPO when they added about 30% more shares, which I think was around 2.40. If it does go up that much on good news, that’s quite a bit of upside from this level, 100%
Obviously it should just speculation that it would go up that much on good news and it would depend on the news. Anyway what are your thoughts on adding to a position that’s down 30-50%?
Because this is purely an exploration “bet”, I’d need to increase the size of my portfolio or change my assessment of the risk level to feel comfortable adding more to USAU.
Since we have no idea what the end value of the company might be, it’s really a binary thing (either “a lot more” or “close to zero”), the actual price doesn’t matter as much to me as the total capital I have at risk in the stock as a percentage of my portfolio… it was in the neighborhood of being a 0.8% bet, a little under 1%, when I made the speculation.
It’s far less than that now as a percent of my portfolio (since it has fallen so much), but putting more capital at risk in USAU isn’t in my plans right now… that would be doubling down on a bet without having meaningfully more information about the odds of success. If it had been a smaller bet originally, I would be comfortable adding at these levels… but to add more I’d need to have more of a picture of what success looks like for USAU, or when results might be likely.
It’s a more appealing stock to buy than it was when I first bought, since there has been no bad news and all of the good potential still exists in the name, but it’s still possible that they’ll fail completely — explorers fail all the time, even with projects that look appealing, so the one real risk control is controlling the amount of capital you risk on an explorer. I wish I had learned about the stock today instead of last Winter, since I’d happily “bet” on it at this lower price, but my bet is in for now.
Travis, Somabull over at SA is very competent on his gold analysis. SAND is one of his top 20 picks.
I think pebble project will be mined in the very near future. You can get the rest of this story from: northerndynastyminerals.com here is the beginning of the article. Northern Dynasty announces hiring of senior technical leadership for Alaska’s Pebble Project
October 12, 2017
Senior VP Engineering & Project Director Stephen Hodgson and VP Permitting James Fueg join Pebble team
October 12, 2017 Vancouver– Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (TSX: NDM; NYSE MKT: NAK) (“Northern Dynasty” or the “Company”) announced today that the Pebble Limited Partnership (“Pebble Partnership” or “PLP”) has filled two senior technical positions to lead engineering design and regulatory permitting for southwest Alaska’s Pebble Project.
The Ethereum Classic Investment Trust is expected to be structurally identical to Grayscale’s Bitcoin Investment Trust GBTC, +3.91% the only bitcoin investment vehicle that trades publicly in the U.S., but instead of bitcoin, it is pegged to Ethereum Classic, a software platform that includes a cryptocurrency token.
The new investment product comes at a time when bitcoin and other digital currencies are garnering more public attention, if not wide adoption. In recent weeks, the Securities and Exchange Commission rejected a pair of exchange-traded funds tied to bitcoin, including one backed by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss. But the rejection hasn’t dampened the enthusiasm for digital currencies; the total market capitalization of the digital universe surpassed $30 billion for the first time earlier this week.
Travis, your analysis is always interesting. Even though I don’t have the liquid to take a dive yet into the investing world, I am equipping myself with the knowledge as I shadow interesting angles from like-minds as you and others.
Talking of which I saw a write up about this (OTC: PRELF) Hive Blockchain Tech stock. Gold and Blockchain, the concept is appealing. While others are trying to figure out the winner out of all the noise surrounding this new technology. They took a rather interesting position of staking in a mining company with the aim of getting a share from every mining fee the pool receives from confirming an ethereum transaction. And boy it has since enjoyed some move upwards…
Yes, that’s been a huge gainer — investors are looking for anything that will ride bitcoin without having to actually figure out how to buy bitcoin (or whatever). Interesting idea, but it’s really a leveraged play on “cryptocurrency enthusiasm” and I don’t have any idea where that enthusiasm goes from here so I haven’t gotten involved. The actual financials, of course, don’t really make any sense yet — the “value” of their underlying data center assets won’t mean much if the cryptocurrency value drops, I imagine, but I haven’t scoured through their filings so perhaps there’s something enticing that I’m missing.
need more discussion on blockchain technology,that is set to change thefuture like the internet,do you have anything on LTV
thinairmony
Northern Dynasty announces hiring of senior technical leadership for Alaska’s Pebble Project October 12, 2017 Senior VP Engineering & Project Director Stephen Hodgson and VP Permitting James Fueg join Pebble team October 12, 2017 Vancouver– Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (TSX: NDM; NYSE MKT: NAK) (“Northern Dynasty” or the “Company”) announced today that the Pebble Limited Partnership (“Pebble Partnership” or “PLP”) has filled two senior technical positions to lead engineering design and regulatory permitting for southwest Alaska’s Pebble Project. Senior Vice President of Engineering and Project Director Stephen Hodgson (P. Eng.) will lead Pebble’s engineering and project development team, with responsibility… Read more »
Hi Travis, any thoughts on GE? It’s stock price is getting more and more attractive, and it’s still a leader in many markets.
Travis,
(I’m relative new to purchasing options and this is my first comment)
When you place an order for an option call/put…regardless of the time period for the option….is the Price first purchased shown on your REAL MONEY PORTFOLIO the indicator as to your buy or buy under price?
Am I correct in assuming that your (SAND) call option for Jan 18 2019 $4 calls buy price is
$ 1.30 or less…
advise if I’m correct or explain if I’m incorrect ….
When you buy an option, can you give us a buy up to or buy below price for that particular option…..for (my/our) information.
Thanks
batspeed10