Friday File: Two Buys, Two Stop Loss Triggers, and earnings updates
by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | November 3, 2017 7:00 pm
Checking in on the real money portfolio -- one sell and two buys, plus comments on CRTO, OHI, GOOG, FB, AAPL, DLPH, BABA, DSEEX, SHOP, FFH.TO, MPW and SWKS. Phew!
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2017/11/friday-file-two-buys-two-stop-loss-triggers-and-earnings-updates/
Travis: Paul Mampilly is pitching a new device that he claims will provide 800% profits in the next 4 years. Paul Mampilly’s Profits Unlimited. Any ideas what he is talking about?
Thanks.
Art
It looks like he’s still running his internet of things/STMicro (STM) pitch, though he has had a few different ads out there recently.
I am a profits unlimited subscriber. His recent october picks are
SPLK
Special reports trades — TSM, RHT.
reguard to crypto curr, I discovered a blockchain mining co to pass along for consideration, its done exception recently, hive blockchain tech(prelf) please check it out, need adice/opinion. could really be good even if for the short haul. its the only publicly traded co of its kind. would love to hear your thoughts. it could br well worth everyones time. please believe me I’m not trying to pump it up, on asking for sincere thoughts. what you think mr. travis. don
@ Donnwonn which blockchain mining co you are referring too?
Has anyone here holding any OMCM?
Travis, thanks for the great analysis (as usual). Not to nitpick, but OHI yearly dividend increase is 6.5% (65 cents vs 61 four quarters ago), not a tiny 1.5%. The 4 cents math is wrong because of the cumulative effect of these quarterly increases. i.e. over the course of 4 quarters you get 1+2+3+4 cents more cents than the previous year.
Oops, sorry — that’s a brain hiccup from me.
Hi Travis,
I am not so sure Apple/Facebook and the other Fang stocks will continue doing so well. Their stockprices are mainly propped up by purchasing by the central banks themself and these companies themself which bought their own stocks. The insane
long period of ultra low intrest rates could last longer I can imagine. But the Fang stocks are dancing on a vulcano. Realistic Apple X with 1000 usd pricetag is already
a bubble in it self. When the recession will hit us Facebook will get hit double many advertisers will flee and so will many investors. My best guess is Apple and Facebook stockprice will return to their medium average stockprice.
Could be, of course, but I disagree. Think of utility — most people spend more time on their smartphone each day than they do driving a car or speaking to real people or sitting at a computer… isn’t that worth $1.50/day? (assuming you buy a new one every two years). Ask someone how many days they’re willing to be without their smartphone, and the value becomes clearer.
And yes, advertising is cyclical to some degree… but if advertising budgets decline, is it better to be invested in the technologies who are taking market share, or losing market share? If digital continues to grow as a percentage of spend, as seems likely to me, then digital ad companies can grow or at least decline less than others if the pie shrinks. And, frankly, the advertising pie doesn’t shrink that much during recessions unless they’re really severe — many companies become more desperate to acquire customers when sales are declining, not less. Of course, a real economic shock tends to tie their hands — but predicting that will probably keep you afraid and out of the market as often as it will protect your portfolio.
Not trying to change your mind, just trying to share other rational perspectives — if we get into one way of thinking that includes too much certainty, we take huge risks in overweighting our own management biases.
That’s why I diversify away from myself with a big chunk of my portfolio, I don’t want my perspective and biasss, know and unknown, to kill my return potential. That grows more
important now, when it’s easy to see only news and opinion that agree with your feelings — which makes your predictions and sentiment seem bulletproof.
Not that this is necessarily healthy…. but addiction and utility drive revenue.
How does Shopify, a SaaS company, get away with not posting Churn?
Investors haven’t demanded it. I don’t know whether the number would be meaningful or not (I don’t care if low-end customers fail to get traction with their stores, I do care about customers leaving to switch to other systems), but if many investors ask for it they might change their reporting.
Hi Travis,
what’s your take on the Broadcom-Qualcom deal? I have been holding on to my QCOM position for a while now and this seems to be a nice break. Do not exactly understand if i should hold or sell perhaps… The deal might not likely come to pass but it feels good now to be on the making money side of things…any thoughts… ?? I would probably hold till shares go at least to $70… but what do i know?
Thanks!
It’s hard to imagine the deal going through, but I like the idea — I’ve toyed with buying Broadcom, and I owned Qualcomm for a while until I was stopped out in the Apple kerfuffle. Apple is still the big risk factor, since they’re such a large customer and the potential to reset patent royalties would wash across all of Qualcomm’s other customers, so there’s more overnight risk than with most of the big chip companies — but Qualcomm is also cash-rich and has a fantastic business that would mesh really well with both NXPI and Broadcom. If they could get all three into one happy family someday, that would be an amazing colossus… but boy, it’s hard to imagine it all going through smoothly.
I’ll probably dig into the numbers and look a little more closely at the proposed deal once the dust settles, I don’t have a strong opinion right now (or a horse in the race), but I like both Qualcomm and Broadcom and their positioning for the Internet of Things and 5G rollouts.
Well, looks like o was wrong about the SWKS quarter — Stock ran up into earnings and then gave it back after hours when they issued in-line guidance for next quarter. We’ll see how things look after it settles for a day or so, but I don’t see any concerns other than “no beat and raise” for the quarter — which should be OK for a stock that’s already reasonably valued and not priced for momentum growth… but we’ll see. I thought they would have a bigger quarter ramping up for Apple.
I keep re-subscribing to this thread with no effect. This has been going on for months. Now when I try to subscribe all I get is an “Oops! that page not available”. Also I have to be missing comments on the Cobar thread as the continuum does not make sense all the time. ?????
@Travis
I struggle to understand why Fairfax is so poorly covered on the news, plus, they get discredit articles like this one..
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/did-fairfax-financial-holdings-limited-121909119.html?.tsrc=rss
Any idea?
That strikes me as an almost-irrelevant robo-generated article from someone who doesn’t know what metrics matter for Fairfax (investment performance, underwriting performance, and book value growth are the keys for valuing an insurance company — and only over extended time periods). Fairfax is an odd bird, for sure, I’ll be updating my thoughts on it later today but the news coverage isn’t particularly important… Watsa generates a fair amount of coverage, at least in Canada, but a lot of it is for relatively small equity holdings in his Fairfax portfolios an doesn’t mean much to the book value growth over time.