written by reader All things Uranium: Company research and thesis refinement

By levbrans, November 17, 2017

Who is this for: Investors looking to make explosive profits with time horizons of multiple years
What is this for: Exchange of ideas for how to position a portfolio for the next bullish cycle in uranium
Why? After 30 hours of preliminary research, I have a strong feeling that we are on the cusp of the next Uranium bull market and would like to share some of the research and sources I have found as well as gather information from the collective knowledge of stock gumshoe members about how others are positioning their portfolios and companies which look especially appealing.

Here is what got this whole journey started: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfvAIor53Ig
I HIGHLY recommend anybody considering uranium to watch the above 22 min video by Michael Alkin. Michael has spent nearly the last 20 years in the hedge fund industry. He has worked for a few multi-billion dollar hedge funds. During his career, he has been an analyst, portfolio manager and partner. He has been a dedicated short-seller, managed both a long and short portfolio and at times have been responsible for several hundred million dollars of capital.

Here is another good video about the strategy I am trying to employ with the uranium sector: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SW96tD9Kdg&feature=youtu.be
This is the one proven way to make money in the natural resource sectors, these industry’s are cyclecar. As Warren Buffet says, your job is to pick the what. What will go up. Getting the timing exactly is extremely hard. I don’t know if the bull market has just started: spot prices are up over 20% as we speak or if it will take another couple years. All I know is that the bull market has not happened in the last 7 years and the fundamentals of the story are only improving

I recommend following John Quakes on twitter @Quakes99 for more uranium information as well. He shares a lot of good articles and resources and is very generous with his insight. I have had multiple conversations with him.

and last but certainly note least here is a uranium report: https://t.co/bjeLXHpg7M by Swiss resource capitol. GREAT COMPANY SUMMARIES AND EASY WAY TO START THE DD process.
my current portfolio: $UEC, $UUUU, $FCU, $SHY. Uranium currently makes of 8.2% of my overall portfolio. I am looking to increase this weight to 13.4% as I gain more confidence in the company landscape. There are only about 40 companies in this space and an estimated 10 quality names, excited to hear others insights and I have some more resources to share if this microblog becomes active.

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.

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alonn1976
alonn1976
November 17, 2017 4:05 pm

Would love to know your take on anfield resources.High risk/reward play?

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Lulu
Member
November 17, 2017 9:38 pm

This will be interesting thread Levbrans, great timing. Speaking of timing, congrats to HN on his UEC purchase earlier this week!
I’ve been waiting for this thread as all these EVehicles have to get electricity from somewhere…..it just makes sense.
cheers

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jjamms6
Irregular
jjamms6
November 18, 2017 5:39 pm

$FCU $URE $DML Long In the red and holding

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hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
November 19, 2017 7:58 pm

Hi Levbrans,

Thanks for starting this thread. Uranium is sort of an afterthought on the Hard Asset thread, but when it starts to move up I think it will be an important topic.

For my own purposes I have reduced my uranium holdings to a few very leveraged
small caps that I think will get my attention when the price starts to move. Then I want to have a list of the best prospects that are good targets for additional capital.

I may miss a little of the first move this way, but the trade-off is that I do not have a lot of capital tied up for an indeterminate period. I sat with a losing position in CCJ for several years and finally dumped it last year as the opportunities in resources were too tempting to ignore.

$UEC Anyway, my current holding is UEC, This is a full position and when U308 starts to move, I will notice the price of UEC which will be very leveraged. It is an alarm clock.

$KVLQF The other uranium-related holding I have is Kivalliq Energy. This is a Canadian explorer, unlikely to ever produce anything. Very cheap market cap and stock price six or seven cents. This is not a pure U play, but one of their prospects is highly prospective in uranium. I also like their partners and affilated companies that have been interested enough to do deals with them…Commander Resources, and Sandstorm Gold. Obviously this is a discovery speculation.

$CCJ…large cap miners suck but when U starts to move there is no reason not to re-enter CCJ. There will be a stampede to this stock as it is the major listed option for bigger and mass investors.

$UUUU and $FCU also will consider when the time comes.
See also separate post on $GVXXF.

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hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
November 19, 2017 8:13 pm

$GVXXF…Goviex…Goviex is one U stock I may pull the trigger on before a clear move in U308 prices. This is a nano-cap speculation with properties in West Africa.
It is the rawest kind of discovery speculation; the reasons I may go in early:

The principal of Goview is Govind Friedland, the son of Robert Friedland.
Besides whatever Govind has learned by Daddy’s upbringing, thinking, and education, this means that Goviex will have access to the technology, capital, and know-how of Robert Friedland, HPX, and Cleanteq.

This is pretty awesome support. It means that most of the risks other than discovery and jurisdiction risk are greatly mitigated. Govind may not have a great deal of experience, but you know that he is exposed to, and has the total support of, the absolute best mining mind and talented executive on God’s earth.

There is the risk of nepotistic subjectivity, but it might not matter if Goviex has deposits worth developing.

You can be sure that Robert Friedland will take an interest in the success of the enterprise. This is rare and valuable. If there is a good deposit there, Goviex will find it and it will be developed at an opportune time.

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hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
November 20, 2017 4:39 am
Reply to  levbrans

Good call on Gold Mining Inc.

I went long a while back on BRIZF on account of the Athabasca prospect. I did not like their gold prospects and even now think it is more merchandising to attract retail capital. Sold it off when better prospects arose in metals, but would look at it again as a stealth uranium play if we don’t have to pay too much for the gold.

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Michael Kennedy
Irregular
Michael Kennedy
November 27, 2017 12:03 pm

$Cameco Corporation (NYSE:CCJ) (TSX:CCO); $Kees Dekker.

Kees Dekker, the mining engineer whom I mentioned in a couple of posts on Hendrix’s thread (GOLD, SILVER, COPPER, AND HARD ASSETS…FALL 2017) has recently produced and circulated to his followers a report on Cameco which comprises a detailed study of the uranium market followed by a review of Cameco’s prospects. The report runs to some 35 pages.

As I’ve mentioned in the past Kees is always happy to have additional followers to read his reports and, if you’d like copies of the Cameco and future reports (gratis), email him on keesdek@gmail.com. I’m buying some Cameco shares as an intended long-term investment. Most of my current long-term investments are short-term investments gone wrong so this will be a change!

I set out below the email from Kees which accompanied his report.

Best wishes Michael.
_________________________________________

Copy of email from Kees Dekker to his followers.

Dear Followers,
I concluded my covering words in an e-mail introducing my previous article, the valuation of Endeavour Mining, with the statement that I needed to make an effort to find a subject where I could come to a positive conclusion.

For that subject I had to look beyond the precious metals sector and I had to complete a study that is quite different from my normal valuations. No cash flow forecast based on life of mine plans, but coming to a conclusion based on a commodity price turn-around. As an ex-Group Economist of Gold Fields of South Africa I am very sceptical about metal price forecasting and usually avoid that. Nobody can forecast prices accurately and people who got it right once invariably are wrong the following period. There are too many variables to be able to forecast a price for a particular period. That is not to say that one cannot see forces at work that will drive a commodity price in a certain direction. It is just so that the exact timing is impossible to forecast.

I am of the opinion that there are important forces at work that will move the uranium price upwards in the next 1-3 years. The nature of the uranium market is such, that when this occurs, it will have a sharp upward trajectory.

Cameco is one of the very few large listed pure uranium plays with producing mines. Its mines are the largest and richest in the world, located in a very safe jurisdiction. It is a market leader that has recently taken actions to jolt the uranium price upwards by announcing the temporary closure as of end January 2018 of the largest uranium mine in the worl