Friday File: What Will 2018 Bring?
by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | January 5, 2018 5:25 pm
Travis' unreliable predictions for this year, plus updates on Ventas, JD.com, Disney, Five Below, U.S. Gold, Sandstorm, Northern Dynasty and more...
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2018/01/friday-file-what-will-2018-bring/
Hey Travis, Sorry to see no cannabis position. My only 2 trends are cannabis and lithium. Cannabis short and Lithium long. As we see today AG Sessions is going down and will be out soon. Even an AG can’t stop the future of cannabis. Just follow the money right. As with Lithium, EV vehicles are the way of the future. Pay attention to Chinese buyers. They are buying Lithium out of the ground right now !. Just a few thoughts to kick off this string
If even an AG can’t stop the future of cannabis and slow the trend meaningfully, then why go short? It seems logical to short some names associated with hype and a fast rise, but to short cannabis against the strong trend seems counterproductive. I am long the cannabis ETF.
I’ve never found a cannabis stock whose financials made sense to me, so have never owned one — though in the long run, it makes no sense to me to treat it much differently than alcohol or tobacco.
Travis by the time POT financials make since the party will be over. Ride the Bull = Wild West
Likely true, but I think that’s because the majority of these stocks are in an unsustainable bubble already. In the case of most of them, I expect, it won’t be the financials catching up with the share price, but the share price falling down to meet the financials.
Many people disagree with me, of course — but that’s the beauty of the market, you don’t have to participate in trends or themes or speculations that you don’t think make sense, you can just sit them out or avoid them with no penalty (other than envy, of course, or opportunity cost)… as Buffett has famously said a few times, “there are no called strikes.”
what are you buying for lithium in stocks.It is a hot trend.
I have my position in LIT and it has been performing very well and steadily – check it out – an ETF.
My father subscribes to the theory that Big Tobacco will be the real story once marijuana legalization clears its first hurdles toward normalcy. He can be a bit of a conspiracy theorist, but there might be some sense in thinking the already established smoking giants are looking to get out of standby cigarettes and already have the ways and means in place, and the capital, to hit the ground running in this emerging market.
Probably too soon to start buying up the usual suspects in Big Tobacco, though I have no stock analyst skills, but maybe the play is to find a few good small caps that’ll be bought out.
$MO and other #BigTobacco… May be a bit late, or right on time Clouseau, Thanks! Best2YOU!
Investor Clouseau – MJX our only POT ETF has already included big tobacco. Lends credence to your theory?
Just a couple of thoughts,
This article I read this morning piqued my interest because I was thinking of investing in cobalt in some manner. http://www.mining.com/cobalt-price-bulls-worst-fears-may-just-confirmed I know it takes time for these things to become commercially viable but it’s probably not that tough to switch from cobalt to iron in the process of making an lithium battery. My second thought is biotech seems to be reaching a stage where the science is accelerating enough that someone needs to define a Moore’s law pertaining to biotech advancement.
No question pot will die because of whats going on with heroin in the
USA.
I am so saddened to see pot legalized. Everyone in my age group grew up in the 60’s and think it is fine. I don’t not for moral reasons but Inever growing up in that Era saw many with any ambition. They mostly were losers later in life. It is also a gateway drug. I won’t invest in pot to make it profitable will only raise the price, regulation will make people STILL access it on the black market because government never sees the unintended consequences. The money California raises will simply be spent stupidly.
Medical cannabis seems to be a good answer to the opioid crisis hurting North America. Serious companies are formulating new pain medicines derived from cannabinoids. The science is solid and advancing rapidly, but fears from years of prohibition linger on. Opioids kill thousands each year. Cannabis saves lives!
Could be, but that “it takes time” part is very real, this is still a lab project. There have been lots and lots of dramatically better battery chemistries developed in labs that haven’t caught on, for a variety of reasons.
I certainly hope something cheaper and more abundant like iron can replace cobalt eventually — but from what I understand, it would be surprising if supply chains and systems and factories were shifted in the next ten years. Certainly not impossible, if further testing shows that it’s really an improvement and makes a better battery, but not my major concern in investing in non-DRC cobalt right now.
Travis – have you considered that there might be a good reason for all those low interest rates at central banks throughout most of the developed world? A reason like big deflationary forces wrought by technological advances, aging populations, growing concentration of wealth, etc? It would not be that shocking to see a modest “catch up” in the 10 year rate but Im not personally going to make any big bets on significant increases in inflation this year. I also don’t see why property REITs, as an asset class , wouldn’t still be a pretty good investment. FWIW
Sure… I just think the massive money creation will catch up with us, and that consumer spending will accelerate this year. I could certainly be wrong — in big picture guessing, I often am.
MSRT marijuana is still cheap..The AH Sessions scared a few, but hje’s not going to do anything serious. This bull market into 2018 and then in 2019 it will head towards a major correction, prob. by 2020 ish. IMO. That doesn’t mean there won’t be a few mini corrections along the way.
Might be a hit- 2 investment buzzwords tied into i1 company- blockchain and weed.
Big plus anonymous cryptos like monero- without USG being able to track the money, they cant do much. now weed companies can conduct business and get away from having to do everything in cash.
Wow. I just subscribed. A lot to understand. We just had a chunk come out of a Met Life annuity. So trying to educate myself. I first subscribed to one of the Motley Fool offerings, but have been inundated with requests to part with $300o or more for better advice. They are unrelenting in their marketing. Just felt really uncomfortable with it all.
Hi QueenBeeHoney – Stick with Travis instead of wasting money on most newsletters. The Mighty Gumshoe has a ratings blog going on as to what others thought with ratings on lots of advisers like the FOOL.
I have found Seeking Alpha has a lot of good “free” articles. And their sector paid advisor letters seem to be quite reasonable.
Good Luck Investing
Motley Fool gives good recommendations for long term investments. That is to say they don’t necessarily gain steadily. For example they were big on ANET 2+ years ago when it was languished in the 50-60 range. But just An SA and RB subscription is plenty, don’t get sucked into MDP or anything else.
Hey Travis , own eCobalt…holding….checked out Clean TeQ and it’s defined asClean TeQ Holdings Ltd is engaged in purification and recycling of waste water. The company also aims to provide cost effective extraction techniques for a range of resources, including base metals, precious metals and radioactive elements.
Am I missing something….
No, the company was primarily focused on building water purification technologies but with Robert Friedland’s involvement they expanded more aggressively into developing what they now call the Sunrise project, using those same purification technologies for processing the mining slurry to extract metals. They’re still trying to develop a water purification technology business as well, largely with Chinese partners, but that’s likely to be a much smaller part of
the business for the foreseeable
future than Sunrise and cobalt (and/or nickel and scandium)
Hi Travis:
On USAU
Do you think the price spike could be due to this?
https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/usgoldcorp/files/docs/43-101_CopperKing_2017_v4.pdf
And what do you think the price could be headed to based on new revised expectations?.. If it hits 4$ area then would be wise taking profit or what?