Newbie Investor…. What are the basic “Red Flags” that point to a “major” Corrections???
by Jim | January 8, 2018 12:49 pm
I am a fairly new investor and have really enjoyed Stock Gumshoe. Extremely good conversations and thoughts. I know my question is difficult, but I would appreciate some of the experienced investors to give the ”Red Flags” they believe point to a ”Major” downturn. Thanks in advance to all the Gummies…
Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2018/01/microblog-newbie-investor-what-are-the-basic-red-flags-that-point-to-a-major-corrections/
Well, I am not an experienced investor, but I have been trying educate myself as much as possible for a little while. I think the short answer is: the way the market looks right now. Overvaluation is the first thing that comes to mind. People are willing to pay a lot more for stock than what it is worth. I have read articles recently that have pointed to the fact that “smart money” or institutions are hedging more or betting on a correction in the near term. But at the end of the day I believe no one has the sure answer. It’s hard to “time the market”
well. I have been investing for 40 years. I have made MANY mistakes. I was wiped out in 2000, due to arrogance — I thought I was smart. In 2008/9 I felt a lot like 2000, so I started selling when stocks first started breaking. And in March of 2009, when no one seemed to like stocks anymore, I bought back some large cap value stocks that I still hold, still earning yield, and now with large cap gains. I dont feel like we are at the top of this current bubble yet. My FEELING; I may be totally wrong. But there is still quite a bit of tail wind behind stocks, including new tax laws that will bump up retained earnings, allow repatriation of foreign money, and there is the promise of a huge infrastructure build out, and whatever you think of Trump, regulations have definitely been slashed. Further, there are still no good alternative investments compared to stocks; when interest rates really rise, that may change, but today, stocks are the best place to put money. The market shrugs off North Korea, Trump tweets, terror threats — the market seems to still want to go up. I am mostly all in for stocks. There will be a steep correction, if not recession; that is a certainty. But I do not see it in the next 5 months. Second half of 2018, when the tax gains are all realized and fully priced in, when infrastructure promises stall, and polls indicate a disruption to republican dominance — then things may change. The market is supposed to be predictive —- I think it predicts at least 5 more months of prosperity. By May or June, it may predict more difficult times ahead. The one, and perhaps only lesson I have learned: buy low. The rest of that equation is beyond my comprehension, but buy low (solid large cap value) seems to really work. And there will be another buy low opportunity.
Thank you jeremiahberndt for your ,trading insight,hindsight,oversight forsightness. I am a novice
Hello,Habari to rainonme, Maxim :Winner never quite and quiter never win. Your advise succor to a novice. How do you pick stock? Do have a pot,oil,gold,energy,utility stock ? What are they by name and stock token. Thanks,Asante sana
Where is the best place to buy stock?
A. Broker
B. I buy it.