written by reader Discussion Page for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals ($AUPH)

By LongOnLife, February 9, 2018

This company was initially brought to my attention by Dr. KSS and Glenn Newby sometime back in 2015, as best as I can recall. It has been one of Dr. KSS’s most highly recommended stocks, though he always urged that you do your own DD. I have owned the stock since fairly early in the game and have bought more as it grew in price. As a result, I have lost on some on the more recent purchases but am still nicely in the black on this one. (showing green in my graphics is nice). I have spent considerable time doing research into this company and have seen nothing of substance to make me believe that Doc and Glenn missed something. If the clinical trial is successful, which appears likely, Voclosporin, Aurinia’s lead drug candidate, will be a blockbuster for treating Lupus Nephritis and it will have no real competition for treating this disease, and so should pretty much own the market. There are other indications that are being trialed including Focal Segmental Glomerulonephritis & Minimal Change Disease as well as Dry Eye Syndrome. If these trials are successful, the prospects are even brighter for Aurinia. Estimates I have seen put the annual market for LN alone in the 1.5B range and utilizing a multiplier of 2.5 – 5, a typical market cap would range from 3.75B to 7B. With the current market cap at around 411M, a 10 bagger is not out of the question and that guesstimate is possibly on the low side, considering the other indications have shown promising results. The problem with this stock as an investment is that Aurinia is still enrolling for Phase 3 in the LN trial. I have seen it suggested they could begin a rolling NDA in late 2018, however that seems optimistic to this investor. I think money placed here will not see big gains until at least 2019 and perhaps later, unless the company is bought out. That said, there is little to not like here and it is currently my second largest biotech investment behind Espiron Therapeutics. Any and all thoughts on Aurinia are welcome here, provided they are made in good faith and show respect for other posters.

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.

guest

12345

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

36 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
richardo8586
richardo8586
2 years ago

LongonLife, thank you so much for starting this blog. I am ow $AUPH. Very nice to see someone stepping up to the plate. For me there has been a lot of “Clubhouse” dialogue back and forth. Not that I don’t enjoy what people are saying, but I would much rather focus on our bio positions and leave the other comments on a separate blog.

Richard

πŸ‘ 510
Larry C.
Larry C.
2 years ago

LongOnLife, I join with Richardo8586 in applauding your initiative in setting up the AUPH discussion site. From your writing it is obvious that you are a thoughtful fellow, and as such I know you want to do right by Dr. KSS. It is only with that helpful notion that I mention that you might reconsider a single word in your second introductory sentence. As an old lawyer (read: one inclined to quibble), my suggestion is that consistent with Dr. KSS’s own message, we should avoid the word “recommended”. In your context, the words “highly thought of” might do he job? Your Gummie comrades are all grateful for your service to the Gummune.

Add a Topic
3932
πŸ‘ 146
πŸ‘ 774
OSUfball
2 years ago

I am long AUPH. Very rarely can a stock in biotech be considered a “sure thing”, but AUPH seems to be it. The stock seems to be languishing because there are just no news events and there will not be any until Phase 3 results come out. Can anyone make a bear case for AUPH? It’s always good to think about what could go wrong. I am tempted to add more shares at these low levels but I am already ow so want to be cautious.

Add a Topic
5971
Add a Topic
5971
πŸ‘ 298
JohnM
2 years ago
Reply to  OSUfball

$AUPH np, for me, the long wait with no news is the only problem. But I still may start a position if this market decline knocks AUPH down much more.

πŸ‘ 1991
shredlee
shredlee
2 years ago
Reply to  OSUfball

$AUPH long. I like the odds of trial success but don’t consider it a sure thing since trials are notoriously difficult to reproduce. I think KSS went into great detail explaining why he thought the last p2 trial would lead to p3 success. Like OFSU said, the other issue is the time factor, for instance what will 2019-20 look like in terms of regulatory environment/govt funding, stock market conditions, FDA, new therapies entering development etc.

This stock price is way too low in my opinion even considering the risks, but I bought too much already and won’t add. Since the outcome is fairly binary (stock will be a lot lower on failure and a lot higher on success), I don’t think the price movement means much. I would lighten my own position if it were to shoot above the secondary before the trial ends.

Add a Topic
5971
Add a Topic
3022
Add a Topic
5971
πŸ‘ 219
dunnydame
dunnydame
2 years ago

$AUPH full position
Thanks LOL for starting this separate discussion page.
A question for all: Are SA articles still to be regarded as toxic/inept/misleading/dumb/criminal/radioactive/misinformed? Or are there correspondents out there in S Alphaland who could be read with more that a heaping wheelbarrow of salt?
Inquiring minds want to know.
Penny

πŸ‘ 1106
πŸ‘ 774
JohnM
2 years ago
Reply to  dunnydame

DR KSS follows JΓ©rΓ΄me Verony (seekingalpha.com/article/4140000-cytomx-augmenting-antibodies-across-indications). Bret Jensen is honest and prolific (seekingalpha.com/article/4144799-2-small-biotechs-buy-dip). With so many CFAs writing on SeekingAlpha, it’s silly to say it’s a cesspool. But LongOnLife is right – always consider the source. There are a lot of anonymous shorts and pump ‘n dumpers.

CFA CHARTERHOLDERS ON SEEKING ALPHA
Weekly summary of the latest articles published by CFA charterholders on Seeking Alpha.
Macro View
The Week That Was In Review – January 19, 2018 by Mark Bern, CFA
Key Observations On Record Exuberance, Returns And Late Cycle Prospects by Danielle Park, CFA
Markets Today Offer Short-Term Gains, But Long-Term Pain by Alan Hartley, CFA
When Friedrich Meets Mycroft You Should Consider Car Loans (Mark Bern) by Brian Bain
Don’t Try To Catch The Bitcoin Knife by FundamentalSpeculation.IO
The Highly Predictable Treasury Bond Bear Market by Brian Romanchuk
Investing Ideas
Prudential PLC Marrying Strong Growth With Disciplined Capital Return by Stephen Simpson, CFA
How Do Embedded Cap Rates Affect The Values Of Your Self-Storage REIT Holdings? Part II: Invisible Liabilities by David Brown, CFA
Nvidia: Look At Me Now! by Kwan-Chen Ma
SA Interview: Opportunistic Value Investing With Nat Stewart by SA Interviews
Cause For Speculation: Proposed Value Of GNC Is At Least 30% Higher As A Going Concern by Jason Phillips, CFA
Kodak And Overstock.Com: The Perfect Partnership To Take Advantage Of The Cryptohype by Edward Vranic, CFA
ETFs & Portfolio Strategy
The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: A Step In The Right Direction by Kendall J. Anderson, CFA
How To Be Bearish And Still Enjoy The Bull Market (Eric Parnell) by Brian Bain
Why I Bought A Share In Vanguard’s S&P 500 Index Fund Mutual Fund by Noam Ganel, CFA
NASDAQ Composite Hits An Inflation-Adjusted High by David Merkel, CFA
Stocks: Onward And Upward by Roman Chuyan, CFA
Forget Bitcoin; Blockchain ETFs Are Here, And They’re Not As Alike As You’d Think by Dave Dierking, CFA
Dividends & Income
How Do Embedded Cap Rates Affect The Values Of Your Self-Storage REIT Holdings? Part IV: Is Global Self Storage Worth More Dead Than Alive? by David Brown, CFA
4 Themes Key For Fixed Income Investing In 2018 by Jeffrey Rosenberg

Add a Topic
3932
Add a Topic
4373
Add a Topic
3551
πŸ‘ 1991
shredlee
shredlee
2 years ago
Reply to  dunnydame

SA is a platform not a viewpoint so I never understood the resistance to it. I also like how you can get stock, quote, news and scuttlebut in one place. The irony is KSS could have easily used it to start his own paid service within SA turnkey ready to go. It does seem like certain articles were intentionally misleading in an attempt to manipulate a stock, so not much editorial oversite. Kind of reminds me a little of some of the controversies with FB and twitter. I don’t mind contrary information to help me clarify my own thinking.

Add a Topic
5971
Add a Topic
5971
πŸ‘ 219
tyler123dogfiddle
tyler123dogfiddle
2 years ago
Reply to  dunnydame

$AUPH medium position and adding as and when. For what its worth Dunnydame, I think the stuff Stephen H Goldman writes on SA is worth reading. Although he hasn’t commented on $Auph for a while, when he does it seems to be well researched and while he has always been very bullish about it I don’t get any sense of pump and dump when he writes. His Stocktwits name is Steven5120, not sure about Twitter.

Add a Topic
6136
πŸ‘ 288
petervr
petervr
2 years ago

tyler123dogfiddle – thank you for your views on Stephen Goldman. I believe the future of the Gummune will be dependent on the quality of guidance we receive. It is absolutely necessary to separate the Wheat from the Chaff.
PetervR

Add a Topic
4672
πŸ‘ 1539
savethemanatee
savethemanatee
2 years ago
Reply to  dunnydame

Thanks for starting this thread, LOL. I am very overweight $AUPH. As the price languished I kept buying, I exercised options, and somehow it ended up my largest position among ALL my holdings in individual stocks (not just biotech). It is so big that I’ve been contemplating culling it. All indications are that this is going to be a success, which makes the price action so strange and causes some doubt. I certainly credit KSS with all his research and discussion on this one.

Anyway, with regard to seeking alpha, there are a number of highly qualified, honest writers, especially outside the biotech and other small cap space. For instance there is a group of writers that focus on dividend growth investing who are absolutely sterling.

For me the key to separating the wheat from the chaff is to focus on the comments: Does the author interact with commenters? Is he courteous? How does he respond to different opinions? I find that the folks who don’t respond at all or fly off the handle and insult their readers are the ones not to be trusted. Jerome Verony and Steve Goldman were both mentioned here and they are both true professionals. Jonathan Faison follows some of the same stocks we do and is worth reading as well, IMO.

Add a Topic
570
Add a Topic
3551
πŸ‘ 2289
mary
mary
2 years ago
Reply to  savethemanatee

#Savethemanatee…I have way too much biotech and need to find something a little less risky. Would you mind telling me some of the names of those who focus on dividend growth investing that you mentioned?
(for the longest time I thought you were STEVE the manatee….always imagined you wearing a flowered shirt, khaki shorts, and flip flops!…don’t let that comment scare you….I am a grandmother not some weird stalker lady!)

πŸ‘ 792
SoGiAm
2 years ago
Reply to  mary

#Dividends – Mary, you may be interested in the following thread: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2016/04/microblog-72-the-rule-of-72/ #Best2You!

Add a Topic
152