written by reader Discussion Page for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals ($AUPH)

By LongOnLife, February 9, 2018

This company was initially brought to my attention by Dr. KSS and Glenn Newby sometime back in 2015, as best as I can recall. It has been one of Dr. KSS’s most highly recommended stocks, though he always urged that you do your own DD. I have owned the stock since fairly early in the game and have bought more as it grew in price. As a result, I have lost on some on the more recent purchases but am still nicely in the black on this one. (showing green in my graphics is nice). I have spent considerable time doing research into this company and have seen nothing of substance to make me believe that Doc and Glenn missed something. If the clinical trial is successful, which appears likely, Voclosporin, Aurinia’s lead drug candidate, will be a blockbuster for treating Lupus Nephritis and it will have no real competition for treating this disease, and so should pretty much own the market. There are other indications that are being trialed including Focal Segmental Glomerulonephritis & Minimal Change Disease as well as Dry Eye Syndrome. If these trials are successful, the prospects are even brighter for Aurinia. Estimates I have seen put the annual market for LN alone in the 1.5B range and utilizing a multiplier of 2.5 – 5, a typical market cap would range from 3.75B to 7B. With the current market cap at around 411M, a 10 bagger is not out of the question and that guesstimate is possibly on the low side, considering the other indications have shown promising results. The problem with this stock as an investment is that Aurinia is still enrolling for Phase 3 in the LN trial. I have seen it suggested they could begin a rolling NDA in late 2018, however that seems optimistic to this investor. I think money placed here will not see big gains until at least 2019 and perhaps later, unless the company is bought out. That said, there is little to not like here and it is currently my second largest biotech investment behind Espiron Therapeutics. Any and all thoughts on Aurinia are welcome here, provided they are made in good faith and show respect for other posters.

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