Friday File: Possible Panic, Possible Buys and Sells
by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | March 23, 2018 12:25 pm
A buy from the watchlist, plus thoughts on Tencent, Alphabet, Naspers, Square, Altius and Five Below
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2018/03/friday-file-possible-panic-possible-buys-and-sells/
10 year anniversary for my site(s) this year, been following you a long time, congrats!
Naspers and Altius have been on my watchlist too. Your rationale gives me a better idea beyond the two newsletters I subscribe to that recommends buying both stocks, but those recommendations were made in 2017.
Well, then they probably picked a better price 🙂
I first owned Naspers and Tencent more than a decade ago, and foolishly “sold the winners” on those for one reason or another. Ah, well…
Could you explain the difference between GOOG and GOOGL and other than share class do they own any different assets?
GOOG is the non voting share class, GOOGL gets a vote. The vote is mostly irrelevant because of the super- voting shares that insiders hold, so I switched to GOOG because it was trading a meaningful discount. It has outperformed GOOGL and closed that discount, so the difference is small now.
Altius is also allowing Sokoman Iron Corp to develop and acquire Altius’s Moose Head gold property. Sokoman will give Altius 9,182,942 shares or 19.9% of outstanding shares fo Sokoman + a .5% NSR royail
https://www.fscwire.com/newsrelease/sokoman-iron-corp-and-altius-resources-inc-complete-moosehead-option-agreement
I don’t know if that means much.
Not yet, but maybe someday.
7 dollar tech chip stock symbol please
That could be hundreds of them, I assume you’re asking about a teaser stock but I need more info to know which one.
if it’s the one Paul Mampilly recommends then it’s STM
It was around $7 last year when originally teased but now it’s in the $20 range down from $24ish
Happy birthday Stock Gumshoe. I only wish I found you earlier. Travis, thanks for your excellent detailed anaylsis and many others who contribute.
I use Wechat (FB equivalent) as well as FB. I find Wechat much more smooth and user friendly than FB. As a user, I am not bombarded with annoying ads like FB. IMO, the pull back in TCEHY is a good buying opportunity, so is CWEB which I picked up more. The Chinese market has tremendous potential and I like the fact that TCEHY put $ back to R&D.
Good luck to all.
I agree: GOOG/GOOGL is cheap, incubating interesting tech (e.g., Waymo) and much less price downside than FB if regulators in the U.S. act against social media companies.
Regarding Tencent, they recently became parent company in Epic Games, a US company. My sons are both playing Epic Games, “ Fortnight “ to a seriously disturbing level! I believe Tencent will profit from their holding of Epic Games. The boys began playing an Electronic Arts game before that stock spiked up a few years ago.
Interesting. Gaming has been the driving force for Tencent for quite a while, though I don’t know much about the specific games.
hi, this is ed, does anyone know what “Cabot’s 10 best small cap cloud computing stocks to buy now by Tyler Laundon on March 20, 2018. Thanking you in advance. ed
Haven’t seen any details hinted at for that particular list — if you see a teaser ad that drops some clues we can use, please forward it along (ILoveStockSpam @gmail.com)
FYI, just updated the Real Money Portfolio because the color notifications on the “stop loss” column weren’t showing properly. Now they are… and the data is now from Friday, not Thursday, so there are also more stocks that are in that “within 5% of the stop loss trigger” threshold (yellow).
And Facebook has dipped below the stop loss this morning… so the partial sale I mentioned might very well get triggered today, we’ll see.
And there you go — stop loss order triggered, my Facebook position is now half the size it was last week.
Hi Travis and friends,
Cintron Research was at it again …. (SHOP) …
Apparently he connects SHOP to FB and it seems that is enough to take 10% of anybody these days… perhaps larger drop expected ….. i see it as buying opportunity this time….
Any thoughts?
Haven’t looked at it closely in the past few days, but I don’t think Facebook will have much impact, if any, on Shopify. Using FB user data is not a core part of SHOP’s business, as far as I can tell, though I’m sure that some SHOP apps use more FB targeting data than others.
I do like Andrew Left and the other high-profile short sellers, I think they provide a vital counterpoint to overly bullish pundits elsewhere (and they are taking a huge risk in being short), but that doesn’t mean he’s right every time about where a stock will go… or even that he’s right that every stock that is overvalued or looks problematic will end up failing at all.
He’s now saying SHOP should trade immediately back down to $100, which is certainly possible — it’s a very volatile stock built on the hope of continuing huge growth in the number of merchants (and transactions) using their systems. But it was at $120 when he first predicted the fall to $60 back in October (the stock did dip to $100 a couple times before bullishness resumed in January), and now that it hit $150 recently he’s predicting $100, so I don’t know that his short-term price target math means much.
SHOP trades at a crazy valuation, so it could always fall, that’s why I use a stop loss to guide my thinking with momentum stocks like this — it would also be crazily overvalued by most conventional metrics if it hit $92, which is the stop loss trigger I’m watching. But predicting the timing of that fall is as much a matter of investor psychology as it is guessing about what their next earnings report will indicate… I think Left found a stock that looks overvalued to him, saw that they have relied pretty heavily on affiliate marketing to build their customer base, and decided that was a good hook to call attention to the risk in the stock and get it to fall. So far, it’s not working and SHOP does not seem to be getting any pushback from regulators or others about their marketing — and as they grow, it becomes easier to market with less aggressive affiliate schemes, and harder for other competitors to take share in the ecommerce solutions business because SHOP’s size means they’re starting to suck a lot of oxygen out of their competitors. They might not win in the end, and it’s even possible that Citron will be right that there’s something stinky in their marketing that hasn’t gotten enough legal attention, but being big and very well-capitalized is good for them, and they’re still growing nicely.
Do you have any feelings about CRSP?