Results-Mamphilly Newsletters, real numbers.
by Marty | March 27, 2018 5:05 pm
Hello:
The last Mamphilly thread got a lot of attention, I thought I would begin a new one and review my results in 2 of his newsletters.
Methodology: Whenever I get an investment advice from either newsletter, I buy into the stock for a pre-determined amount, and track it along side if I had invested the exact same money into the s&p 500 ETF. It is what I use as my benchmark. There are some notes below that will quanitify some exclusions, and if you were to ask Travis, he can verify that I am a real person, not in any way related to Paul or Banyon Hill, aside from buying a subscription. I subscribe to Profits Unlimted and True Momentum.
Profits Unlimited[1]:
Since joining in March of last year, I’ve followed PM’s suggestions on a total of 25 stocks. 15 are presently active, 10 have been closed, 9 at a loss. 3 are open showing a loss. 12 are showing a profit. Purchases began in March, and trickled in through the year including last week. My investments paid off 11.4%. Had I invested same dollars at same time in IVV (S&P 500 ETF) my gain would have been 4.7%. So I am pretty happy with that newsletter.
True Momentum:
I joined in May of last year. I have bought into a total of 16 stocks, 6 of which are now closed. Of the 6, 2 closed with a profit, 3 closed at a loss,, 1 broke even. Of the 10 active stocks, 8 are profitable, 2 are showing a loss. Purchases began in May, and trickled on through the year, including last week. My investments paid off 22.2%. Had I invested same dollars at the same time in IVV, my gain would have been 2%. So I am quite happy with that purchase as well. (If I was unable to put at least $1,000 into each stock pick, the price of the subscription might not have been worth it however).
Overall, I think he’s done a good job of providing what he said he would, and his folky method of explaining his suggestions, along with a buy zone.
On the negative side, there are some thinks he and Banyon do that is especially irritating.
1. They bombard you with too much spam email. Waves of it. Calling to get it reduced helps for a matter of weeks.
2. They use fuzzy math. If I have 4 positions each with 25% gains, to me that is an average of 25% gain. To them it is 100% gain. (25+25+25+25). This I find really objectionable, as he is saying his Profits unlimited is up to 1000% gain. I joined late, so using his method I’ve achieved a 315% gain. Really, my cash return is 11%.
3. Some of the picks from True Momentum are from BEFORE the service started, I’m told these were ”beta testers”, but it still feels dirty.
But these things help me remember that at the end of the day, I should trust no one, and track all this myself.
I hope this helps someone considering either of both of the news letters. I’d love to see a similar analysis on Extreme Fortunes[2], or any other newsletter. It would be unethical to share the stock picks on a public forum (or in private messages) and I dont want to risk my subscription (I’ve earned almost $5 for every $1 I would have earned with IVV), so please dont ask. I just felt like this information would be helpful.
- Profits Unlimited: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/tag/profits-unlimited/
- Extreme Fortunes: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/tag/extreme-fortunes/
Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2018/03/microblog-results-mamphilly-newsletters-real-numbers/
EF doesn’t deliver on it’s promises. Haven’t done the type analysis you have. Not necessary since the vast majority are losers. I do believe that most will be winners in the future. 1000% winners is laughable relative to Mampilly’s time frame. I disregard Banyon Hill emails as they proved misleading. Peak Atrocity (Michael Carr) single handedly wiped my available investment capital out. Modest gains relative to Indexes in no way reflect advertised reality. As a EF investor I won’t know legit returns for 2-5 years. I would NOT have become a charter member in retrospect.
I’m a veteran of market newsletters, from the days before the
Internet, when everything arrived via snail mail and trading was done by human beings. I’ve been searching for an honest and ethical mentor for 40 of my 61 years. Finally found Mampilly, researched his history, and he seemed to be the real deal. I subscribed to PU in September, and bought some of the tech stocks he recommended in his Special Report. Of course I bought them in late September, just to watch them crash and burn in October. Thank god for stop losses. 3 week performance on my investment=stopped out at a loss of $6686. Then of course everything went to hell in a handbasket, and as I write this on the last Saturday of 2018 I am being bombarded by offers from Mr. Mampilly to join his “Inner Circle” for life and get everything he writes plus an invitation to Amelia Island sometime in 2019 mto meet him and his team. All at an incredible discount. Just $20,000 for life! And only 500 spots open, and once they are gone that’s it. I’ve been getting these emails every day for a few weeks and wondering why someone with 125,000 PU subscribers is having such a hard time filling 500 spots. After all, you get every one of his publications (plus 2 new ones in 2019, as yet unnamed), as described in the email:
“Again, once the two new services come online next year, the first year value of your Inner Circle membership is $40,699.
But you’re not going to have to pay that price if you join today.
The one-time price of an Inner Circle membership is $20,000. But remember, when you join, you are a member for life”.
Ok, he probably had a bad year in the market just like the rest of us, and maybe he needs some quick cash. But a few things really burn my butt because I believe them to be unethical and misleading. Some of these topics have been covered by other members, such as:
1. Fuzzy math. It’s not fuzzy, it’s a total lie. When you earn a 25% return on each of 4 stocks your overall return on a cash basis is 25% less commissions/fees. NOT 100%. I’m constantly amazed that every “guru” does this and gets away with it. It’s idiotic.
2. Publishing only winners and ignoring losers. If I did that on my corporate P&L’s it would be like booking all revenue as pure profit, with no expenses for overhead, and if I ran a public company I would have a good shot at jail time (anyone remember Enron?). But my compensation would quadruple since it is based on net earnings. I don’t think my shareholders would appreciate that.
3. I consider this the worst offense. Mr. Mampilly specifically states numerous times in his (interminable) video presentation that these 500 Inner Circle members will get access to his recommendations BEFORE all his “regular” subscribers. Why? So we can front-run everyone else and sell out at the top? If I was a “regular” subscriber paying thousands of dollars for the $10 Million Dollar Portfolio or any other expensive Mampilly subscription I would be incensed, and you can bet that Mr. Mampilly would be hearing from my attorney in short order.
And here I thought I finally found one of the few good guys. Turns out they are all the same. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
Getting $10 million (500*$20,000) upfront just for a promise to make you rich, looks very promising for Mr. Mampilly. I wonder why he lets 500 subscribers only. what’s wrong with 1,000. $20,000,000 are much better then just lousy $10 millions.
Anyhow, I didn’t understand the meaning of “lifetime”. Does he mean MY lifetime or his. What happens if , God forbids, Mr. Mampilly passes away?
Well, thats not a joke if you consuder it. Because the same thing happend to me with my subscription to Weiss Reseach. I paid for 5 years and after less then 2 years the referee died. All subscribers were transfered to Bannian Hill for one year that is ending this year (2018). And that’s folks ends a year of enormeous profits in percents! as dr_solly stated. Just kidding. By Bannian Hill there are no stop looses. It is called ‘preserve capital’. It is up to you to calculate your looses.
Because I’m not American I do not have the ability to sue theese S.O.B’s.
Take care.
Do you really believe he cuts it off at 500? Whose to say it’s not 5000, or unlimited. 500 is just a catch phrase IMHO. They should pay us for listening to their hour or more long pitches. They almost seem to be reading from a script. They are all almost the same wording. They drive me crazy and they helped me find Travis who doesn’t put us through the agony. I love it when they claim they caught every top and bottom for 20 years or more. One guy even said he called 9-11. What is he a Saudi Prince?
On point #3, he already has a very bad reputation for front-running, except now, as you stated, he has published it.