Friday File: Portfolio Transactions Catch-up (2 sells, 5 buys)
by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | July 13, 2018 1:01 am
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2018/07/friday-file-portfolio-transactions-catch-up-2-sells-5-buys/
$CTEQF added to my position as well earlier this week, thanks for sharing your thoughts and for the accompanying bump in confidence that all the patience should pay off.
Been thinking for a couple months about getting some starter position exposure in Indian companies ($FFXDF maybe), but haven’t pulled the trigger yet. It’s always good to read your feedback on your own holdings and moves.
Naspers (the name derived from Nasional Pers, meaning National Media) hails from my native country, South Africa. With a 20% pullback since mid January 2018 may seem like a good entry point but in my humble opinion is not investable now. Trading in the “Double Death Cross” zone with 200MA having intersected both the 50MA & 100MA is usually an indication of a continued downward trend.
Although its operations are global it is still a South African company with its headquarters in Cape Town – and that is where the real concerns lie. The severe political instability, corruption by politicians ransacking the state coffers, daily violent riots, strikes, excessive crime rate, escalating farm murders, a country that boast the highest rape statistic in the world and outright dissent from the majority towards the minority does not bode well.
If the Deputy President of a country can announce publicly that “white people should either leave the country or be killed” with total impunity while they make up 5% of the population but pay more than 90% of the taxes investors should be very wary – for that reason more than a 1 000 people leave the country per day, leaving behind the uneducated masses.
In August 2018 the final amendment to the Constitution will be announced where the government will be entitled and will expropriate property without compensation which will result in civil war. Regrettably every business and company such as Naspers (NPSNY) will suffer from this.
StockMidas, Thank you for the Naspers caveat. Any thoughts on how the SA government change(s) will effect the Ivanhoe (primarily platinum) mine(s) in South Africa? Would you object to having your post copied to the Gold, Silver (precious metals) blog?
Deanbob, regrettably all businesses and enterprises will be affected. South Africa is literally a boiling pot tethering on the brink of boiling over. With the EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters), one of the extremist opposition parties pushing very hard for a radical overall of the Mining Charter and nationalization of the mines (largely on account of the immense mineral riches still to be explored) it will be one of the industries hardest hit. The industry employs a very large unschooled labor force who blindly follows what they are promised and told with daily strikes being the order of the day with disastrous effects.
Good points, S.Africa is certainly a worrisome country, and changing the laws to somehow pressure Naspers is a meaningful risk. Naspers’ actual operations in the country are not a particular risk, since they are a rounding error compared to the global investments, but you never know what a country might do. It could be an interesting test of who has more power and influence: The largest company in Africa, or the corrupt politicians of the country it calls home?
I suspect the corruption and failure in South Africa’s government will leave Naspers in OK shape in the end — no country wants to destroy its most powerful company. But that’s just a guess. They have defense mechanisms, I suppose, they could move and most of their investments are already held overseas so those could be spun off and traded elsewhere, but that is very likely part of the reason for Naspers’ gigantic trading discount. I think the discount is big enough to be worth the risk, but others might certainly decide otherwise.
Hey Travis,
Thanks for answering my query on CleanTeq and Yatra – informative as always!
Any suggestions on Lashmet’s drug company tease?
Hi Travis
Can you please suggest some not-so-expensive ways to buy pyhsical gold ?
I like the simplicity and predictability of major bulliom coins (American Eagle, Canadian Maple Leaf, South African Krugerrands, etc), and as long as you don’t want a rare or collectible version you can usually buy for a fairly low ($40 or so per ounce) premium over the melt value. If you want to hold physical gold and don’t want to be a coin collector, that’s what I’d do. I like Apmex.com, their service and prices have been good for me (they don’t pay me to say that, and I haven’t tried many other merchants).
Going into remote allocated storage or generic coins or bars can be a bit cheaper… but if you want to hold it in your hand, common bullion coins will likely be much easier to sell at a predictable price in the future.