by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | September 28, 2018 5:13 pm
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You’re smart to worry. I own gold, uranium, and silver. They’re low priced, and good hedges in a falling knife market. My marijuana stocks look poised to jump when the Canadian laws change. One I got for a penny, and it’s projecting 40,000 buds to sell this quarter. I have high hopes for that one when the smoke clears.
I do hope those hedges work this time around, particularly gold (which I also have exposure to) — last time, gold did exceptionally well after the market bottomed out, perhaps because of a lag in that “flight to safety” impulse, but I guess it will depend on what precipitates that next crisis… and importantly, we should remember that gold stocks, on average, were not much of a hedge in 2008-2010.
GLD data by YCharts
Just curious, which one did you get for a penny?
The stock is HMPQ. Volume was 55,000 on Friday. They sell hemp rolling papers and oils. They’re looking forward to a big quarter as they have 40,000 plants about to harvest. I think the volume will attract momentum speculators.
Thanks Travis for the write up!
Seeing so many people chase the next “symbol”, its easy to get caught up in all of the FOMO.
But towards the end of every week, its calming to read through your market analysis and come to agreement with myself that missing out is ok,,,
My target return rate for moving out of stocks is 4% based on the required minimum distribution in the IRA accounts. Of course this needs to increase in time but the goal is to maintain your asset level. This is an age related phenom of coarse but there are a lot of us out here.
I had OGRMF (OrganiGram Holding) for a few years because they were bilingual English/French. I made a few bucks but it floundered a lot while the govt. was trying to figure out the common denominator with legalization within the Provinces. The good thing about Canadian medical marijuana is that you have to commit your prescription to one company for a year and not shop around. That really helped with inventory-production and projected growth levels. I really think that the launch of legalization will be a total mess & will produce many small start-up causalities with only the big fish surviving; but not with the huge blooms that are being projected. I thinking the CBD market is the next move, although subtle. While all of the plant producing companies are imploding, CBD oils, edibles & beverages will prevail. I am looking hard at INSYS Therapeutics. ($10.00) They are promoting a metered spray CBD for those who don’t like the drops or cannot smoke…..
On a side note my 10yo grandson wanted stocks for his birthday & we bought him a pile of Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) last month and he’s already up $2.00+ and climbing Booyah!
Having tried CBD in both oil and gummy form for pain, I found it useless. I know anecdotally that people claim it does great things but it did absolutely nothing for me. If I doesn’t have THC in it, it hasn’t proved useful to cope with what is admittedly a very severe case of chronic pain currently being treated with heavy doses of opioids plus other medications. Maybe it’s the severity of my case that causes CBD D only stocks as a result.
Sportsbiz, the problem with most CBD products is it’s very hard to find one that is consistent, standardized and from good organic full spectrum hemp extract or cannabis flower. CBD is very effective for inflammation, cramps and seizures and pain to some extension. For pain either a 1:1 or 4:1 ratio of CBD to THC is necessary. Because of the high from THC most people take it about an hour before bedtime. http://www.HelloMD.com is a great site focused on cannabis treatments operated by doctors that can give you best recommendations.
I’m a new Irregular. Have been reading your missives for years, finally took the plunge. It’s been said before: The information and ideas within the Irregulars Space is mind-expanding. Your exposure of the misleading headlines and twisted verbiage has always been both interesting and eye-opening.
I have never been willing to put money into these teaser stocks; regarded the newsletters as snake oil. Tried a few but could not make any of it gel for me. Not even Morningstar. Paid for a few letters for the lists of stocks before I had any other ideas. Who were those guys [have forgotten the company name but not the capital losses from their “advice.”] from Falls Church, VA ? Agora’s entry level stuff. Regretted it later but still don’t know how I might have done better. Now I read Seeking Alpha and think the names and lists of stocks are often not really much better than the newsletters.
Lost contact with Agora when I switched Email providers early this year. Can’t just change the Email address ??? Much more peace of mind with that D&G noise gone. Now I am caught in the MarketBeat, Money Morning, Money- this or -that or this- or that- Money noise. They aren’t promising to find the hottest stock that ever was as much as promising to lead (subscribers to their high-dollar newsletters) through the imminent Market/Economy/Social Order crash & chaos that will begin Nov 1 or Jan 10 or – – -. Of course I also read Bill Miller and Josh Brown who are promising blue skies and happy days for years to come. Dunno. Then I read your regular and Friday missives and bask and relax in the sound of reality and common sense.
Your published stock portfolio has given me confidence about my own holdings in spite of the entirely different positions and approach. Lately I have been dipping my toes in a few Baby Bonds, Muni’s, CEF’s. Positions between 1% and 2.5% of my portfolio. Trying to not screw up. Everything I buy must have decent dividends or interest yield. I am on the cusp of my 80’s. Need the trickle of the yields and trying to at least maintain the total value of the portfolio. Very worried about a major Market crash in the near future or in a couple of years. Dunno.
Thanks so much, dusty, and welcome aboard.
Private individuals have in the main forgotten the rising interest rate era, and the falling interest rate period was extended by the 2007 bust. One thing to remember in a rising rate scenario is to invest only in maturities of up to 5 years, aka short-dated, and to be careful about event risk, which can suddenly undermine the value of bonds.
I noticed that one of Travis’ larger ETF holdings has much of its fixed interest content in Treasuries, and I like this. If there is chaos in debt markets, there is usually a flight to Treasuries. I have also noticed that savings with governments do not get many recommendations due to “Commission Impossible” factors. So for US citizens, it is worth visiting the Treasury Direct website, and for U.K. citizens the National Savings website. My wife, a U.K. citizen, has a large holding of cashable Savings bonds which pay some interest. The logic is that if anything happens to me, money will be available even if we are in the middle of yet another banking crisis.
I’m a new member and am already blown away by Travis Johnson’s analyses. Great stuff! This fellow should appear regularly on CNBC, FBN, Bloomberg, etc. But about his comment pertaining to being cautious about “calling the top.” I will be out of stocks (temporarily) when the squiggly line from the Bonner-Withrow “Doom Index” moves above the horizontal danger line into the Index’s Danger Zone. The Doom Index accurately called the 2000-2001 & 2008 stock market and economic downturns. It might be an overreaction because the squiggly line could go back down below the danger line the following quarter, but better to be safe than sorry with so much debt in the world.
Awww, thanks! Can’t seem to make a point in 18-second increments, so I guess I’ll never make it on CNBC 🙂
I’m not sure you would be at the top of their “CNBC Contributors List” anyhow Travis; you are too honest to be one of their stars!
Regards,
Frank
A newsletter-related note on TDOC – it was one of Michael Robinson’s additions to his Nova X portfolio in this month’s issue.
I like your details on the acquisitions better, but for anyone interested, the basic investment thesis from Robinson is essentially the same as the one from Travis: TDOC is the leader in a market segment that is likely to see tremendous growth for the next decade.
Growing company with a leadership position in a growing industry? Yes please. I added a few shares of it today myself.
Since you also mentioned PRIVX, one of the reasons you haven’t seen so many teasers for it lately is that Robinson (one of the main people using it to hawk newsletters) dropped it from his Nova X portfolio something like a year or two ago.
Frankly, I’m glad he stopped the teasers. One vid in particular from way back when had some dubious claims and some just plain bad math as part of the hype. It gave me an initial distrust of Robinson, and it took about 18 months of reading Nova X before I changed my mind.
More recently, he dropped Energous (that “nanocrystal electricity” thing) from Nova X as it dropped below his stop-loss, but he might still be teasing it for his more expensive newsletter.
I should have stopped out of Energous long ago myself, but my own investment thesis is a bit different.
I say that whether you actually believe the story behind the hype isn’t as important as whether you believe the hype will be there when they announce their next FCC approval. I believe that when the next announcement comes, the hype from Robinson and others will start up all over again, probably even louder than before. With it being a somewhat low volume stock with not so many shares outstanding, that kind of hot air could draw in the momentum players and take the stock into orbit.
So I’m hanging on, even though I’m taking a beating on it every month waiting for that next announcement to come.
Interesting, thanks for the feedback. Folks often do get such a bad taste from the teaser ads that they can’t appreciate a newsletter even if they otherwise like it.
I’ve been so underwhelmed by Energous management and their overpromise/delay pattern that it’s hard to imagine them ever breaking out, but who knows. I think it will be product driven, they need a mass-volume product, and probably a large one (Amazon, Apple, etc) to really make an impact. Hearing aids and IoT stuff doesn’t seem likely to do it… but we’ll see.
High tech valuations and who owns the data? Everyone is rushing to be a monopolist. At some point, the governments are going to have to break them up, by making their data open to other competitors to allow for competition. Capitalism now is crony ala Silicon Valley big money. When that trend starts, valuations will come back down to earth and the community will start to share in the current land grab valuations.
The comment by the 70 year-old Gummie who invests in the Canadian MJ stocks, hates his phone, and most often does not understand his grandkids could have easily been written by me. Every single thing he said, even the age, is me, spot on. It’s good to know that there is at least one other Boomer out there that thinks as I do and is taking the risks to try to and grab that brass ring of MJ legalization before the merry-go-round shuts down and stops. May God save us all from ourselves … but it has been, and continues to be, an exciting if foolish ride. And the wheel goes round and round.
Another geriatric, phone-hating Canadian in the MJ hunt. Hope you’re doing as well with $SPOT as I am with $SHOP. Now if only Travis would tell us what Yastine & Badiali are recently hyping in the sector, I could make another move, or, I hope, feel smug about one of my current faves.
#Shopify(SHOP)
If people are looking at uranium, URA is an ETF investing in uranium stocks. Sold mine after production cuts nearly a year ago when the price was over 16. Still own Randgold, disappointing but hopefully the merger with Barrick will help.
As regards pot, oversupply could become a problem soon, just like the oversupply of corn after farmers planted more for ethanol production.
I have a cheap subscription to one of Angel Publishing’s newsletters. They have been trying to sell a 1499 priced subscription to Charles Mizrahi’s Insider Alert. I would be interested to know what he is promoting as his 7 trillion secret, but honestly his pitch does not add up at all. He claims to have managed 200 million for investment banks and hedge funds, but these guys might start you with this kind of size – and if you do well you will be msnaging a few billion. Also he has more than one newsletter – for me a no no unless different markets are covered – for example commodities and shares.
If you own Randgold u may want to hook up with IKN on twitter. Mark ( south american mining analysts who calls it as he sees it) has posted some info on the Companies and the M/A which may be worth a look. As well as some very disturbing ( for me anyway) pics of what the Company CEO’s are up to. Have they have been spending investors money on safari’s shooting big game? Pictures included. Can’t deny it….up to 5 big game each. Wonder how much is paid to shoot each one of those beautiful animals. If you don’t have twitter u might be able to google it or just sell your stock!
Oops, sorry I’ve been triggered.
To whomever gave me the thumbs up – thanks….If Mark Bestow of Randgold and Marcelo Kim of Paulson and Co. have such little respect for the lives of these beautiful animals, how much respect will they have for shareholders and their money!! ?? To post pictures and boast is beyond comprehension….all smiles ‘look at what I killed’.
IKN, live from LatAm
Link to IKN
The top three most visited IKN posts this week are…
Posted: 29 Sep 2018 07:23 AM PDT
…in reverse order:
.
Third Place: “Barrick / Randgold and a Mark Bristow quote”. It was The Randick Week on the blog and while just four posts were directly related to the merger (three others semi-connected), three of those take the gold, silver and bronze position this weekend. This one got hits because what with last weekend’s scoop, mainstream media decided to pay attention to the blog for a nanosecond and quote bits and pieces, this one and its “probably the start of M&A action rather than an isolated incident” got picked up.
Second Place: “Some more photos of Randick* (ABX) CEO Mark Bristow with animals he has killed”. And yes, a CEO’s private life activities are fair game when they are abhorrent as this. Be clear that from now on, by owning shares in Barrick you give a tacit pass to a big game hunter who shoots wild animals for fun.
First Place: “M&A in Tier One and Tier Two precious metals miners: The two most obvious targets”. This one was also picked up and distributed by several large circulation media channels, which is why it made the number one spot I suppose. My two cents on my two choices, feel free to come up with better ideas.
I love the sobriety I have 34 years.The caribou are gone now. Like they disappeared 300,000/400,000 from Quebec.All outfitters have closed.Five star resorts have been left to the BEARS.Ihate sin stocks.I’m seating in Wells Fargo 4%??????????????
My personal opinion is that the pot stocks are doomed. I believe they have a short life span. They should do good for a while, but as soon as big tobacco gets into it, most of these companies are toast.
I own a few from Roadmap to Marijuana Millions by MICHAEL ROBINSON Nova-X Report. I liked 3 of the companies not because what he said, but for location. I picked Canopy being on the east coast, Aurora Cannabis Inc. on the west coast, and The Supreme Cannabis Company, Inc. for being somewhat centralized and right on the great lakes. I sold Canopy way to early when it came back down to $20 as a stop loss in February and never got back in. I basically have just broke even with the other two and hope for big things. Supreme has the ex president of Starbucks Canada on the board of directors, and is still relatively cheap compared to a lot of the others.
Writing is on the wall that big tobacco is loading up and waiting for everything to get settled in. PharmaCielo is in Columbia, grows outdoors year round, with a price per gram like 3/4ths as cheap, and partnered with a Canadian company and has several of the top board members from Phillip Morris.
Imperial Tobacco Group has also expressed interest in Medical Marijuana.
So the Canadian companies that have to supply light wont be able to compete. However, PharmaCielo was supposed to be thinking about going public sometime soon. There are probably more I just don’t know about.
Thx for your weekly update. Would be interested in your thoughts on Mongo DB (MDB). Has done really well since IPO amd are a leader in new database technology. Believe that there is much growth ahead. Keep writing.
Thanks… that’s an area where I have a hard time understanding the different technologies, but it’s been on my list to consider.
Has anyone heard the new pitch by Money Map’s newest guy? He’s a self-educated baseball fan that spent a lot of time in the library reading books about finance. He has a 100% record for stock picking with 70% returns using his own version of saber metrics (like moneyball). For two grand he’ll give you weekly video pitches and the standard reports and books about his methods and picks. It sounds too good to be true. He’s not pitching any one stock, instead, he’s pitching himself. He rented a baseball stadium in Baltimore to film his pitch. I’ve been burned by Money Map option gurus before so I’m leary to bite the bait. But this isn’t options it’s good old stock picking so I might take a chance. I wonder if anyone has signed up for his advice yet and their opinion of his methods.
I haven’t signed up Stephen although I wish I had a dollar for every email I’ve received trying to get me to do so, lol! I am a Moneymap subscriber and am ambivalent about their service so far.
I’ve been a lurker here for a long time cuz I’m basically a cheap SOB- finally paid up Travis! Lol. This is EASILY the best money U can spend when it comes to investing ideas.
Regards,
Patrick
I was burned by MoneyMaps Rick Rule Alliance $3k/yr about year and half ago, and did not renew. At that time I got Money Map to stop sending me any emails from all their teaser promos; no I havenot heard of this new guy “moneyball” metric stock picker……please keep us posted.
I was looking forward to some of your wisdom after the past 2 day significant drop in the market. New irregular.