written by reader True Wealth’s Steve Shuggerud’s take on Tencent

By jbinsc, September 21, 2018

In Steve Shuggerud’s latest report of ”True Wealth” he calls Tencent a SELL. Today, I read an advertisement where Steve calls Tencent the buy of a lifetime.
Obviously, I either have things wrong or at best, I’m confused !!! I’d appreciate irregulars and of course what Travis thinks. I hope you all will share your knowledge on this ! Many thanks,

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.



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Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
September 25, 2018 8:58 am

Interesting — yes, the “this will be the biggest company in the world” pitch from Sjuggerud about Tencent has been rolling for a while, and sometimes newsletters keep running promos for stocks even after the editor of the newsletter sells the stock (either because timing of marketing is different, or because they just don’t care and keep emailing whichever ad works to get attention).

Sjuggerud still seems to espouse the “melt up” forecast, believing there’s going to be another huge spike before the market crashes, particularly in China… but from what I remember reading I think he’s also a strong believer in stop losses — and pretty much any stop loss level that you consider reasonable would have been triggered by Tencent, it’s down a little more than 30% from its January highs now.

I continue to hold Naspers, which is an indirect play on Tencent — hasn’t hit my stop loss trigger that would force a decision on me just yet, though it has gotten awfully close. I suspect that Tencent’s spending and currency issues could impact investor sentiment, as could the Chinese gaming crackdown if the regulatory stranglehold over Tencent’s new game releases doesn’t ease up, but it is much more reasonably valued now if you’re comfortable with those uncertainties — and it is still a dominant company, with essentially everyone in China using their messaging networks and with a lot of hit games, though “dominant” is perhaps different in a country where the government can turn off your electricity overnight if they want to.

Risky and not cheap… but certainly a lot more rationally valued, at last if you go by earnings and revenue growth, than it was in January.

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