Friday File: 5G Time!

by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | October 19, 2018 4:32 pm

A new focus on 5G in the Real Money Portfolio, plus a few updates on Starbucks, Altius and NVIDIA

The next wireless standard to be adopted by telecom service providers might be the biggest one since 3G enabled the first real “high speed” data and reasonably useful internet access by smart phones.

And new wireless standards are always of interest to investors, not least because the growth of smartphones has tracked the improving networks — the first iPhone was released with older 2G/EDGE network technology in 2007, but the faster 3G network made the first iPhone upgrade a year later, the iPhone 3G, truly revolutionary as it went beyond “novelty” status and added GPS mapping and push email and the App Store and other features… and the last two big jumps in unit volume for iPhones were in 2012, when they introduced their first 4G phone (LTE connections and much faster data that made mobile video possible… that’s still the current standard), and in 2015 when they released their first bigger screen phone and made a huge splash in the China market.

And I’m starting to think that 5G, the next standard that will feature data speeds perhaps 100X faster than the current mobile internet, is being under-appreciated by the markets… though that could be starting to change, and I added to my “5G portfolio” this week.

Let’s start with the news: Ericsson (ERIC) reported yesterday and provided some more real optimism for 5G enthusiasts… Nokia (NOK), their major non-Chinese competitor for equipment that will be needed in the rollout of 5G networks, will report late next week. There’s no magic here, but both of these companies have been positioning themselves to be core equipment suppliers as 5G networks are built out by telecom companies, and it looks like their plan is finally starting to work.

There is the near-certainty of rising investment by telecom companies in 5G networks over the next couple years, with AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile/Sprint all installing equipment in their first test markets, and Ericsson appears well positioned — they and Nokia have both had a rough couple years as telecom infrastructure investment has been soft because of the maturity of 4G/LTE networks that has kept equipment orders down, but their investment in new technologies and cost cutting seem to have helped bring gross margins up and make them profitable again.

Ericsson’s share price is up something like 40% this year, so some of that recovery is already in the stock as investors become more comfortable with ERIC’s recovery from a few years of weakening revenue, and the stock has led the company at this point (organic revenue growth was only 1% — far better than the years of falling revenue, but still pretty tepid), but I expect this solid earnings report will help make 5G seem more “real” for investors.

I already had a small speculation on ERIC options, well out of the money (betting on a ~30% rise in the next six months) and essentially just a speculation that there will be a rush into 5G stocks as the first networks are rolled out in the US and news coverage heats up, and I also have a larger speculation over the longer term (2020) options on Nokia. But I think the skepticism about 5G is still too strong in the market, in part because it’s a multi-year story and investors don’t often like to be patient, and I’ve added to my 5G investments this week… more on that in a moment.

The first applications will likely be as competition for fixed broadband, and that could be meaningful but probably won’t be economically dramatic. The first big impact should be in mobile phones over the next few years and, later, in “smart cities” and connected cars and other services (“Internet of Things,” if you must use the term), but because the first test installations are still new in the US and Japan and South Korea (with China hot on their heels, and Europe lagging behind), no one is quite sure how quickly this will all move.

What we are sure of is that 5G is needed for some markets to fluorish, like live mobile augmented reality, self-driving car networks that can talk to each other for safety (and offload their heavy-duty computing needs to the cloud, instead of putting a supercomputer in every trunk), and the next-generation of high-resolution imaging for video and interactive gaming… and we can be pretty sure that the major telecom companies will be spending heavily and competing for leadership.

The overriding possible risks to the 5G rollout that I see are a telecom debt crisis in the US (AT&T in particular has debt levels that boggle the mind for a megacap company, and Verizon isn’t all that far behind), shocking health outcomes that could emerge and change the consensus about the risks of wireless radiation, or a dramatic enough trade war that supply chains are truly screwed up for Nokia, Ericsson, Huawei and the other major equipment makers. Or, of course, a major recession that slows everything down a bit. All those things are possible, but my judgement is that most worries along those lines are very likely to be overblown right now… and I can’t remember a time when a huge multi-year technological transition like this has been so well-telegraphed without really causing a stock market boom in the companies that it will touch. It’s still very early days, with the key standards for 5G just being agreed to a few months ago among those leading players (Qualcomm, Nokia, Ericsson, Huawei, Samsung and many of the big telecom and device companies), but I don’t see this train stopping.

I think we’re likely to see a very substantial infrastructure buildout over the next 3-5 years, particularly in the US, and that the next year or two should bring a re-rating of several of the big players in the stock market, starting with the equipment makers and then the chipmakers. I am not certain about who will be the winners and losers, so I’ve decided to revamp that section of my portfolio a bit to essentially spread my bets, with an emphasis (since I’m generally feeling a bit nervous these days) on the larger companies that are reasonably valued and have strong balance sheets and good dividends.

Qualcomm (QCOM) is a huge and dominant mobile chipmaker and technology leader, with the best wireless modem chipsets and the highest royalty income thanks to their huge intellectual property portfolio in wireless networking (both in 4G/LTE and in 5G, and new phones will have to be compatible with both for at least several years)… and they’re positioning themselves to be equally important in 5G, though the stock is currently beaten down because they’re facing pushback for their royalty rates and, partly as a result, losing Apple’s chip business (Apple moved to less-robust Intel chipsets with the latest iPhones, and may well be developing their own chips for the future).

There’s a fair amount of risk here, partly because of the many legal disputes and negotiations that could significantly impact cash flow, but they are so big and so dominant that absent a crushing legal defeat or a decision by all the phone makers that they’ll opt for worse products just to spite Qualcomm, I think things will work out OK for them. That’s begun to be reflected in the share price recently, partly because of Qualcomm’s decision to put the money they had set aside for the (rejected) acquisition of NXP Semiconductor (NXPI) to work at buying back stock instead, but I think QCOM is still undervalued because of the risks — the risks are still there, but unless Qualcomm consistently loses the next few legal and negotiation rounds with Apple and Samsung the company should keep the cash flowing nicely. I’m ramping up my position a bit here.

Nokia (NOK), like Ericsson, is a long-time turnaround story. I prefer Nokia because it’s cheaper (though projected earnings growth is a little lower once you go out a year or two), and it pays a solid dividend. The dividend is paid only once a year, and it has varied widely without a consistent dividend growth trajectory, so we should be careful how much we count on that as part of the valuation — but on a trailing basis, it’s well over 4%. Ericsson used to pay a large dividend as well, but slashed it in 2017 after losing money in 2016.

ERIC’s current dividend is easily covered by cash flow, NOK’s is a little tighter — but both have plenty of cash on the books and no immediate debt concerns, and, in truth, both have valuations and balance sheets that are quite similar. They even are likely to have pretty similar royalty income from 5G, since Nokia and Ericsson sit just below Qualcomm on the list of the most important IP holders in wireless networking (Nokia and Ericsson both have announced average royalty pricing [1]in the $3-4 per phone neighborhood, Qualcomm tops out at about $13 per phone for 5G… though those royalties aren’t set in stone and are often negotiated with big customers).

Nokia’s primary differentiation from Ericsson is that, as a result of their purchase of Alcatel-Lucent a few years ago, they can offer more of an “end to end” networking product for customers… though that’s not necessarily critical for the big customers, and both Nokia and Ericsson have received and probably will continue to receive substantial orders from the telecom companies doing the early US 5G buildout (in fact, just in the past couple months both got $3.5 billion multi-year 5G deals with T-Mobile within weeks of each other). There are a lot of other network equipment providers whose products overlap some with Nokia or Ericsson, from big guys like Cisco (CSCO) and Fujitsu and NEC, but the really dominant player is China’s Huawei, so there’s also political risk — a lot of folks are avoiding Huawei right now, or at least talking about avoiding Huawei because of the leverage Huawei gives to the Chinese government when it comes to critical networks… but maybe in a year or two all will be forgotten and Huawei will have even more market share.

I feel comfortable in my assumption that Ericsson and Nokia will continue to be core technology providers as 5G rolls out, particularly in the US where both have lots of contracts and long relationships with providers, as well as plenty of older equipment in operation, so I’ve added equity stakes in both Ericsson and Nokia this week — more in Nokia, given my preference for that stock, but they’re so similar that I can’t conclude with a straight face that I’m certain one will win over the other.

Crown Castle (CCI) is my favorite pick among the wireless infrastructure owners — they are primarily a tower REIT, but have gotten more aggressive in buying fiber assets as well, and investing in small cells, particularly in urban areas (that’s a key for future 5G, since 5G networks will require much denser antenna portfolios — the network enables much faster data transfer, but wavelengths don’t as easily go through buildings, and they don’t travel as far as 4G/LTE signals). I think they bring us a nice mix of high and growing dividend yield, rational balance sheet, and competitive investments for the future, so I started building up a Crown Castle position this week as well — it’s a stock I’ve covered off and on for years, but this is the first time I’ve owned shares.

If you want to be a bit more aggressive, and don’t care about dividends, then more recent tower REIT conversion SBA Communications (SBAC) could be appealing — they carry more debt and I think they are riskier, with earnings not yet supporting or necessitating a dividend, but they’re also smaller and are reinvesting cash flow into paying down debt and growing… so they don’t issue as much stock as CCI and the larger American Tower (AMT) do with their more REIT-conventional equity-fueled growth, which could give them stronger growth in the future. SBAC also probably has more potential for “surprise” growth in a few years if their international markets pick up steam — it trades at about 20X current year AFFO (that’s adjusted funds from operations), which is pretty much the same valuation as CCI and American Tower (AMT). I prefer the steadiness of CCI and the combination of solid current yield and dividend growth (they are on track to grow FFO by about 7% a year, and grow the dividend at a similar pace, which is pretty appealing from the current base of a 4% yield), but your mileage may vary.

There is substantial interest rate risk for all the tower REITs because they finance partly through debt and will likely be investing heavily in new small cell locations and new towers over the next few years to fuel that 5G demand, so if interest rates continue to rise they’ll suffer some from that increased cost even as their dividend yield becomes somewhat less appealing compared to “risk free” investments like the 10-year note at 3%+. Similar risks plague most REITs and income investments in general, at least during short-term shifts in interest rate expectations, so it’s important to be mindful of that — but that’s also largely a portfolio construction and allocation issue, since none of us should be predicting the exact trajectory of long-term interest rates. I wouldn’t bet big on bonds, since it appears likely our 30+ year bond market honeymoon of falling rates is over, but it’s certainly not guaranteed that we’ll see nonstop rising rates from here. I’m positioning my overall portfolio, I hope, to be OK whether rates rise or fall (rising rates should benefit financial firms and insurance companies, for example, as well as cash positions).

And, of course, there’s also risk for the equipment makers — the infrastructure buildout could move more slowly than expected, or the talk about national security could waver in the face of lower prices from Huawei or ZTE and further pressure margins for Nokia, Ericsson and Qualcomm. Little is certain, but I think the tide will rise enough to lift all of these companies — and in a time when market valuations are quite rich, these stocks combine reasonable valuations with pretty decent growth prospects from what should be a long-term tailwind from the 5G buildout and gradual mass adoption.

So how does that shake out in terms of my portfolio? I already have a (disappointing) position in Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), which is trying to build its market share in signal power amplifiers and antennae technology across all wireless platforms (from Bluetooth and WiFi to 4G and 5G) and a small one in Qualcomm, along with some option speculations on a few of those names… so what’s going into the portfolio now is an increase in my Qualcomm position and new equity positions in Crown Castle, Ericsson and Nokia. All three of those new positions are a little smaller than I want them to be, but that’s partly because Nokia hasn’t reported yet and because I’d like to ease into Crown Castle somewhat gradually — particularly since the interest rate risk is fairly substantial and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the stock overreact to any change to future interest rate expectations.

So that’s now five positions in the portfolio that are primarily there because of expected increases in 5G infrastructure spending and, a little later, chip/handset/IoT demand over the next few years, and in total I’d like them to be more than 5% of my portfolio once I’ve gotten those last few positions built out, probably over the next few weeks — they’re a little under 4% right now. You can see the details and the indicated stop loss trigger points for those now in the Real Money Portfolio if you’re so inclined (as I’ve mentioned in the past, Skyworks is right around its stop loss trigger price now and has dipped below it recently, but I’ve elected to hold and not sell).

*****

What else is going on this week?

Altius Minerals (ALS.TO, ATUSF) reported its royalty revenues for the third quarter — the total was down year over year, mostly because the 777 mine production dropped and dividends were not as high as expected for their Labrador Iron Ore (LIF.TO, LIFZF) holdings (Labrador Iron Ore did well during the quarter, but, as Altius described the situation, they didn’t choose to pay out as much of their cash flow in dividends as they did last year in the comparable quarter).

Interestingly, one of the only real “competitors” for Altius in the public markets when it comes to mining royalties outside of the precious metals space, Anglo Pacific Group (APY.TO, APF.L, AGPIF), also bought a substantial stake in Labrador Iron Ore a few months ago. Anglo Pacific provides financing for mining companies in exchange for royalties, they are not as much “prospect generators” like Altius (ie, they don’t generate their own projects by exploration as a way to feed into the royalty portfolio, they buy them) but they have had some solid royalty revenue growth and pay a high dividend yield. Anglo Pacific might be worth consideration if you want more exposure to uranium or coking coal, both of which are meaningful contributors to their net asset value — and they estimate that they are trading at substantially below that NAV.

Anglo Pacific is a stock that many people own because of its dividend, I expect, and they say that their “dividend cover” is solid — adjusted earnings per share are about 2.5X the size of the annual 3.25p dividend. The risk with Anglo Pacific, I expect, comes primarily from the fact that the Kestrel coal mine makes up about 75% of their revenue right now — that’s an enormous concentration risk, and if something turns ugly at Kestrel there’s very little potential for their other assets to come close to making up for it.

We’ve seen concentration risk with Altius as well, to some degree, in that they too were heavily dependent on coal royalties a couple years ago and felt that risk firsthand, when Alberta decided to speed up the closing of its coal power plants and therefore cut the value of those long-lived royalties roughly in half… but that was still less of an issue, since the coal royalties at Altius are spread across a half-dozen mines, and since they took advantage of weakness in copper and iron ore and potash prices to quickly shift to those commodities with more substantial royalty acquisitions in the past couple years, rebuilding their cash flow.

So Anglo Pacific is an interesting stock to consider if you like that royalty space, you get a better dividend and a substantially lower valuation using most metrics (PE, dividend yield, Price/Sales), but I think the risk is substantially higher — mostly because of that dependence on the Kestrel coal mine in Australia. It might work out great, Kestrel has new owners now and they might invest more in increasing production than Rio Tinto did (RIO sold to EMR Capital and Adaro, a private equity company and an Indonesian miner), and it is certainly a valuable asset if coal continues to be in demand (the mine has been in operation for 25+ years already and is huge, producing 5 million tonnes of coal last year, mostly coking coal, and with close to 150 million tonnes of reserves to be mined).

My interest in Anglo Pacific is tempered because of that huge concentration, but they do have some other interesting assets, particularly if we’re going to embark on a new commodities bull market at some point — they have a vanadium royalty with Maracas, and, most interestingly, a potentially substantial nickel/cobalt royalty with Piaui in Brazil that’s described in a presentation from last year here[2]. (Interesting if that mine goes through to full development, of course). There are also a couple uranium assets, though the most substantial is the Denison deal that entitles Anglo Pacific to a portion of their toll mining revenue, it’s not directly price sensitive (though, as we’ve seen, lots of uranium mines have shut down with low prices, and it could be that volume will pick up if prices recover). Maracas is the only one that’s been looking appealing lately, mostly because vanadium prices soared over the past year, but on a revenue basis it’s still less than 15% of the size of the Kestrel royalty as of the first half of 2017.

Might be worth some more investigation if you’re a coking coal enthusiast or just like the dividend, you can see their “elevator pitch” and their filings, including the latest half-year results[3], on their investor relations page here[4]. I’m not likely to buy it, but never say never.

*****

DocuSign (DOCU) is a stock I keep coming back to and considering as well — it’s the largest holding in the SharesPost 100 Fund (PRIVX), which I still have a small position in, so I guess that I technically own a little bit of the stock, but I haven’t actually bought shares directly.

I like DOCU’s progress in becoming the “go to” e-signature provider, and I think that might become an enormous business as it moves beyond real estate and other transactional businesses to perhaps become a core business service. I don’t know what advantage DOCU has beyond being the biggest “first mover” in the space (there are certainly other e-signature tech providers, including major competitors like Adobe (ADBE)), but “first mover” can be a powerful strength if your customers are delighted by the service, and I like that their pricing has been strong enough that they are actually going “cash flow positive” just a few months into their life as a public company.

DocuSign shares are now trading at less than 5X sales, with very high gross margins and the potential for extremely strong scalability as they grow (they are a pretty pure software/service provider, the only cost that should rise meaningfully as they grow is marketing), and they could be an interesting takeover candidate if any cloud services company wants to take leadership of this market segment (Adobe, Salesforce, etc. — Salesforce is already a Docusign investor). That’s not cheap, but it’s cheaper than a lot of the cloud/tech companies that have come public with strong revenue growth recently… and, of course, it’s a lot cheaper than it was two months ago, which is really what caught my attention (the high was about $64, it’s down to the low $40s now).

Part of what’s holding me back from taking a small stake right here is timing — DocuSign’s IPO lockup expires next week, on October 24, and that often creates a selling dip that could give a better buying opportunity… particularly because they still have substantial ownership from several venture capital funds that are likely to want to sell their positions down (probably gradually, but you never know). That’s how I first bought shares of Coresite (COR) and Alphabet/Google (GOOG), for example, they were venture-backed IPOs that hit a little negative press at the same time that insiders did their first post-IPO selling, which brought the shares down to appealing prices. Doesn’t work every time, and DOCU did already have a little downdraft as investors are clearly less enthused about the high-growth no-profit new tech stocks than they were a couple months ago, and certainly the end of that lockup period on October 24 is no secret… but I’ll be watching next week. They don’t report earnings again until probably early December, so there won’t be other “real” news for a while, and I do have a couple limit orders in that could trigger a buy early next week if the shares dip further (to the $38-40 neighborhood or beyond). Given my trading restrictions, I will be unable to adjust those orders for at least three days now that they are in the market, so we’ll see what happens.

*****

And a question to ponder: Why aren’t all the pot companies surging to new highs now that legalization is finally here in Canada?

Mostly, I think it’s because everyone knew about legalization… stocks don’t generally move sharply because the expected happens, they move because sentiment shifts or because the unexpected happens. Now the widely promoted catalyst is past, so how do we value the cannabis companies? In Canada, the story will now shift from legalization to execution… which means the stocks should begin to be valued based on their ability to meet customer demand in these first few months, their development of retail and distribution networks, the emerging appeal (or lack thereof) of their proprietary brands, and, most important in the end, the pricing of marijuana and the level of revenue they achieve.

It will probably be a long time before any of these companies are consistently profitable, but I imagine the next ones to be rewarded will be the ones that are able to show the strongest revenue growth trajectory. And I still think we’ll see most of the Canadian marijuana stocks fall by 50-80% at some point over the next year or two, these valuations are just too out of touch with what I expect to be the reality of the market size. I won’t cry if I’m wrong, I’m not shorting these stocks, I just don’t see any value there at these prices… though I’m impressed with some of the companies (starting with Canopy, which I think has the best chance of building a strong mass-market brand and supplementing their revenue with exports if and when the Canadian market is saturated).

And in the US, of course, it’s still completely a “story” trade, based largely on state-by-state legalization… with the brass ring being finding the stock that will be best financed and best positioned to expand quickly IF we see federal legalization, though there are lots of news-generating stories before that, including the possible removal of marijuana from Schedule 1, which would make it a lot easier to deal with and ease off some of the federal pressure, and more implementation of recreational use in populous states that gets people more comfortable with the idea of full legalization.

For my part, since Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR) is the only company I’ve found where I can understand the economics and see a lot of potential value at these prices, I hope the US legal framework remains disjointed… the longer pot growers go without access to the stock market and big banks, the more growers in need of expansion capital will find appeal in IIPR’s fairly expensive real estate-based financing deals. Banking for marijuana businesses is definitely improving, particularly on the local level in places like Colorado and California, but the big national and multi-state banks still don’t really want to touch the business and maybe get burned by the feds, and, because all marijuana businesses are technically illegal in the US, US marijuana companies still can’t list on any major exchange (either in the US or Canada) and get better access to institutional equity investment money. That doesn’t mean they can’t find investors, of course, since lots of them have done well on the OTC exchanges or the tiny alternative Canadian exchanges, but it means the big institutional investors and casual retail investors aren’t nearly as likely to get involved. That’s a big part of the reason that Canopy Growth and Tilray had such explosive performance recently, getting listed in New York opened them up to a much larger group of investors… and in the case of Tilray, at least, they had so few shares available for NY trading that the demand dwarfed supply and caused ridiculous volatility and a crazy valuation. It should be an interesting year.

*****

Other news? Starbucks (SBUX) has been on a tear since Ackman’s announcement of a new position last week, though there hasn’t been much new news from the company of late (they report next in about two weeks). Ackman has not indicated that he intends to be an activist in Starbucks or apply any pressure, since he likes what they’re doing so far, but I did think it was interesting that a week after his announcement Starbucks announced that they’re going to shift more of their European footprint to a licensing model — they’re going to fully license their Starbucks stores in France and the BeNeLux countries to Aksea, which has been a long time overseas licensed operator for Starbucks in Latin America (they’ve done similar things in other countries in the past with other partners — much of Europe is now run by licensed operators, not by Starbucks itself).

So that’s not a big or shocking change, but it does really sound like an Ackman move — reinvigorating growth by licensing a lot more stores, and putting the capital requirements and investment onto a franchisee or licensee, seems straight out of the Restaurant Brands (QSR) handbook under Ackman and 3G Capital. I don’t mean to over-interpret what they’re doing, and this is not nearly as aggressive as the moves Restaurant Brands made with Tim Horton’s, for example, but I’m pleased to see them opening up the structure to allow for faster growth in Europe, where there are a lot of Starbucks stores but where there’s also huge room for growth compared to the US. If they can license out some more of that European growth, that gives them more bandwidth to focus on what investors will likely see as their key metrics: Rate of store openings and same store sales growth in China, and reinvigoration, if possible, of their same store sales growth in the US. The former is expected to supply most of the growth, the latter is the real engine of the company and the source of all that cash flow that they’ll be using to increase the dividend, buy back shares, and service a rising (but still very low and manageable, particularly compared to peers) level of debt that will be used for more aggressive stock buybacks. Me likey.

****

In some minor portfolio update news, I also put on my first stock-specific bearish bet in a while, buying some way-out-of-the-money puts on Wingstop (WING), which is one of the more crazily valued restaurant stocks — this is a small bet that really depends on both a market drop and a swift change in sentiment about WING, which may not happen (of course), but if things get ugly I expect WING to be among the worst performers due to their crazy valuation… we’ll see. I wouldn’t bet big against this stock, since it was also very overvalued a year ago and has doubled since then, but it strikes me as a ridiculous investment… if you want some of the fundamental reasons not to like it, check out Whitney Tilson’s presentation from a year and a half ago[5] — he was super wrong to make this a big short position, since the stock has more than doubled since, but it’s a useful perspective. On the flip side, Jim Cramer is a big fan of Wingstop.[6]

It’s dangerous to step in front of a retail stock that’s successfully undergoing a dramatic expansion in store count, and I’ve successfully invested in some other retailers that are expanding and look expensive (like Five Below (FIVE), which I still like a lot at these prices), but not every aggressive expansion story has a rational basis, and not every one goes well — and I don’t like the looks of this one. I’m happy to hear disagreement if you’ve got some, this is a small and low-conviction put position, but I’m also trying to put myself in a “short” mindset to continue to diversify a bit by nibbling on some short positions and put options.

*****

And finally, I added very slightly again to my NVIDIA (NVDA) holdings as the shares dipped below $230 to close out the week… no big news here, I just continue to like their chances to dramatically increase their earnings over the next couple years, and I think it’s likely that analysts are still lowballing their estimates and that the dip has been overdone here — this boosts my position by less than 5%, so no reason for streamers or confetti. My thinking hasn’t changed in any meaningful way since I added to my holdings[7] in the initial post-earnings dip back in August.

Next week will have some real sentiment-driving earnings releases, as widely held darlings like Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG) release earnings — any big news from those three would be enough to change the widely accepted “story” of what’s happening with the market, so here’s hoping that we’ll have some interesting stuff to talk about next week… and that we won’t overreact to whatever that news might be. Have a great weekend!

Disclosure: I own shares of Altius Minerals, Coresite, Ericsson, Nokia, Qualcomm, Skyworks Solutions, Crown Castle, Starbucks, Amazon, Alphabet, Five Below, NVIDIA, the SharesPost 100 Fund, and Apple among the stocks mentioned above. I also have bullish options positions on Starbucks, Ericsson, Nokia, Qualcomm, NVIDIA, and a bearish options position on Wingstop. I currently have limit orders in place with my broker to buy DocuSign shares if they dip 8-12% from current levels, but I will not alter those orders or otherwise trade in any of the stocks mentioned above for at least three days, per Stock Gumshoe’s rules.

Endnotes:
  1. average royalty pricing : https://venturebeat.com/2018/08/21/nokia-caps-5g-royalty-at-e3-as-mobile-industry-seeks-licensing-peace/
  2. described in a presentation from last year here: https://www.anglopacificgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/171027-Anglo-Pacific-Group-Piaui-Nickel-Cobalt-Royalty-acquisition.pdf
  3. latest half-year results: https://www.anglopacificgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/2018-08-APG-1H18-Results-Presentation_vF.pdf
  4. investor relations page here: https://www.anglopacificgroup.com/investors-media/
  5. check out Whitney Tilson’s presentation from a year and a half ago: https://investoralmanac.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/whitney-tilson-wingstop.pdf
  6. Jim Cramer is a big fan of Wingstop.: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cramer-wingstop-apos-apos-world-223400860.html?.tsrc=rss
  7. added to my holdings: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2018/08/friday-file-part-two-one-post-earnings-buy-and-other-updates/

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