GOLD, SILVER, COPPER, AND HARD ASSETS…2019

By hendrixnuzzles, November 27, 2018

This is a late continuation of the predecessor thread titled:

“Gold, Silver, and Hard Assets…FALL 2017”…from which, I quote:

“Everyone makes mistakes and I make more than my share.” 

Well, I nailed that one. In 2018, overall my picks were not successful. 

Many of the mining speculations were duds. Plus the commodity price landscape was not favorable for the sector.

So there is no particular reason to listen to my opinions, more than anyone else’s.                         

Caveat emptor.  But here we go again, hopefully for a better year.

PURPOSE The purpose of this thread is find and discuss good long term investments and speculations  in gold, silver, and other selected metals. We are not a short-term trading thread, although occasionally there are short-term trading opportunities that may arise.

FOCUS Gold, silver, copper, nickel, platinum group metals, zinc, uranium.

NOT A FOCUS: Scandium, cobalt, aluminum, manganese, lithium, and aluminum; and developments in extraction and technology. These are better discussed on other threads.  Some overlap is unavoidable but keep it  to the minimum.

AUTHOR INTENT…Two themes:  long-term capital preservation based on metals, especially precious and demand industrials; and big capital gain speculations based on them. 

This second theme can lead to very speculative investments in exploration and development.

This can be in conflict with the theme of capital preservation, as it was for me in 2018.

I cannot fully reconcile this paradox, and  I can understand if a reader does not feel inclined to put money into these vehicles.

BIAS…Obviously I am biased to hard assets…see title of thread. I favor royalty companies, developers, and  miners.  My enthusiasm for exploration has been reduced, as my efforts in that sector were failures for the most part last year. But they are still entertaining, and the memory of a few big hits keeps me interested. 

I have significant positions in physical metals but it is boring to talk about them,                       

I believe in the concept of optionality as propounded by Rick Rule.

Because of this I am of the opinion that , in general, MINERS SUCK.

I am wary of big-cap miners, ETFs, and indexes.

I am strongly influenced by leadership and management. I am a  big fan of Robert Friedland. His companies have evolved into a major component of my portfolio and interest. I consider him to be without peer in the mining development business. I am partial to other personalities in the mining business, such as Watson, Sprott, Rule, Mcewen, Lundin, Keevil, Lassonde, and a few others.

My favorite jurisdictions are Canada and Australia, but I will look at sketchy neighborhoods if I think the story is compelling.

I believe gold and silver prices have been manipulated and suppressed by powerful groups, including and especially governments and central banks.

I think these efforts will eventually fail, but they can visit havoc on prices and values in the meantime ,and keep prices artificially low for long periods.

Accordingly, I have shifted a fair allocation of my holdings away from gold and silver, and into copper and other metals that I believe will benefit from the trend towards electrification.

POSITIONS My largest positions are Cleanteq Holdings, Sandstorm Gold, Ivanhoe Mines. My percentage of gold and silver assets is still probably much higher than that of most people.

Clean Teq is my largest position but is not a primary topic on this thread.

Positions :

Miners, even though they suck:         

  •  $IVPAF Ivanhoe Mines (multi-metal, 3rd largest position)
  • $MAG Mag Silver (silver)
  • $MUX Mcewen Mining (gold, copper)                                             
  • $SCCO Southern Copper

Royalty/streamers:

  • $SAND Sandstorm Gold (2nd largest position)
  • $WPM Wheaton Precious Metals

Developers:

  • $CTEQF Cleanteq  (#1 largest position, discussed on separate thread)
  • $SA  Seabridge Gold (gold)
  • $ERDCF Erdene Resource Development (gold)                       
  • $MGMXF MGM Minerals

Exploration speculations:

  • $CNRIF Condor Resources                                                             
  • $LNZCF Sama Resources**                                                                   
  • $SRI Sparton Resources**                                                               
  • $ARRRF Ardea Resources**                                                          
  • $CMDRF Commander Resources**                                                
  • $KVLQF Valore (formerly Kivalliq)**

**Sama, Sparton, & Ardea are discussed on Clean Teq thread; Commander and Kivalliq are “stub” positions left over from failed speculations

Exits…Kaizen, Cordoba, K92, Colorado, Pretium, Platina, UEC, Bear Creek
____________________________________________________
DISCLOSURES. I am a retired executive and an amateur investor. I like both fundamental and technical analysis. I surrender to flights of intuition and paranormal insights when they come to me.

I am a medium-term to long-term position player, and prefer to discuss stock investment in that context. As more of my capital moves into conviction stocks, my transactions have become smaller and less frequent, and my standards for taking new positions have become higher.

I am not an expert in any of the commodities discussed, nor am I qualified to give advice. And by no means do I have any expertise in geology or metallurgy.

I express opinions and positions. These are not advice or recommendations, which I remind you I am unqualified to make. I change my mind frequently and my opinions are subject to change at any moment. I intend to keep the thread current but I cannot guarantee that I will tell anyone when I have changed my mind on a particular stock .

CAVEAT EMPTOR. You are responsible for your decisions, and I am responsible for mine. Do your own due diligence. Remember, MINERS SUCK and most mining project FAIL.

***
POLITICS Political developments and topics should be introduced only when they have a clear relevance to the commodities or companies under discussion. An occasional outburst of outrage, disgust or indignation is tolerated and understandable. But keep it low, and no cheap shots.

POSTS We want a friendly, honest, and constructive atmosphere. Have fun, entertain yourself. But if you want to have fun by insulting people, go elsewhere. Be nice, or be gone.

Try to have reasons for your opinions.  Facts and speculations are both welcome, but try to distinguish between them.

Spelling, punctuation, and grammar matter. Everybody makes typographical errors and I am as guilty as the next person. But if you make a lot mistakes or are careless about these things, you are sure to be making errors in other more important things.  So…it’s annoying, and it detracts from your credibility even if your idea is good.

MODERATION AND CENSORSHIP As thread moderator I reserve to myself the role of referee, censor, arbiter, and Grand Poobah, subject to the over-arching authority of Travis, who owns the site and who has on occasion exercised his right to ruthlessly censor and suppress my radical blatherings.

If you are suspected of shilling or not having clean motives, or if you are a nuisance, I will cry to Travis,  ban you from the thread, and you can start a thread  of your own.

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.

Share your thoughts...

76 Comments on " GOLD, SILVER, COPPER, AND HARD ASSETS…2019"

Notify of
avatar

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Griffin
Member
2967
$ARRRF – Ardea Resources WA Gold Exploration Update “At Goongarrie, the BTZ underlies the entirety of the extensive lateritic nickel- cobalt deposits. It is host to the numerous historic gold mining operations that are exposed in bedrock at the Goongarrie gold mining centre and historic town site. That same sequence is almost completely buried beneath laterite cover adjacent to the nickel-cobalt orebodies of the GNCP. As such, surface geochemistry is not effective, so geophysical target definition and drill sampling is required.” https://ardearesources.com.au/downloads/announcements/arl_2018112901.pdf Lots of graphics. ARRF long
Add a Topic
5934
Add a Topic
210
Add a Topic
964
Griffin
Member
2967
Add a Topic
5934
deanbob
Member
660
MTLFF Long November 29, 2018 Vancouver, BC: Metallis Resources Inc. (TSX-V: MTS; OTCQB: MTLFF) (the “Company” or “Metallis”) is pleased to announce the second set of assay results from the Company’s 2018 drilling program at its 100%-owned Kirkham Property in the prolific Golden Triangle of northwest British Columbia. The first ever drill program at the Cole and Nina targets totalled 1,645 meters (“m”) of diamond drilling and resulted in the discovery of two new porphyry systems. The drilling assays at the Cole target also included the discovery of a high-grade gold zone containing 11.18 g/t Au over 7.7m including 137… Read more »
Add a Topic
Metallis Resources Inc
Griffin
Member
2967

$FYI – Nickel Monthly News For The Month Of November 2018

Summary
Nickel spot prices were lower, and the LME inventory was lower.
Nickel market news – Doubts cast on plans for deluge of new nickel supply from Indonesia.
Nickel company news – Norilsk Nickel and Sherritt International Q3 nickel production up 9% and 10%, respectively.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225730-nickel-monthly-news-month-november-2018?isDirectRoadblock=true

$Artemis Resources [ASV:ARV], CleanTeQ [ASX:CLQ] long

Add a Topic
964
hendrixnuzzles
Guest
0
Secular commodity price trends…the core investment thesis is strongly tied to the secular price trends off the underlying metals, and the anticipated uptrends have not materialized. My opinion is that the underlying commodity price weakness has overpowered other developments in individual companies and their progress towards production. There is no sure way to predict how long the secular weakness will last. It could last a long time; it already has. As a long-term investor, I am philosphical about this. I feel we are in a good stretch to accumulate. But a short- or medium-term investor will be less inclined to… Read more »
Griffin
Member
2967

Sooner or later I’m thinking the battery metals are going to get pushed up. The exception might be the vanadium Explorers. I’ve had one explorer already more than double.

Add a Topic
1614
Add a Topic
2982
hendrixnuzzles
Guest
0

Pray tell …which one ?

sarahh
Member
213
Add a Topic
210
Griffin
Member
2967

$MUX – MCEWEN MINING ANNOUNCES 2019
TIMMINS EXPLORATION STRATEGY AND FUNDING

This seems more ab out shares issued at a premium than strategy to capitalize on “We want to build on the exploration success of this year’s effort, where we increased our resources and generated a number of exciting exploration targets.”

https://mailchi.mp/mcewenmining/mcewen-mining-announces-2019-timmins-exploration-strategy-and-funding?e=9dec8f6bb8

MUX long

Add a Topic
4054
Griffin
Member
2967
$FYI – Nickel Monthly News For The Month Of December 2018 by Matt Bohlsen @SA – Includes: AAUKF, AXNNF, BHP, ERMAY, FQVLF, GGIFF, GLC Summary Nickel spot prices were flat in December, and the LME inventory was lower yet again. Nickel market news – Many analysts see nickel prices improving in 2019, especially if the trade war and global slowdown fears fade away. Nickel company news – Highlands Pacific delivers their PFS at Frieda, First Quantum has troubles in Namibia, as does Axiom Mining in the Solomon Islands. ” Stefan Ioannou of Cormark Securities said…. “I think the reality in… Read more »
Add a Topic
964
Add a Topic
5315
deanbob
Member
660
Long The complete details of the report below and the contents of their scheduled conference call are at their website Erdene Announces Positive Preliminary Economic Assessment for the Khundii Gold Project HALIFAX, Nova Scotia, Dec. 18, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Erdene Resource Development Corp. (TSX:ERD; MSE:ERDN) (“Erdene” or “Company”), is pleased to announce the results of an independent Preliminary Economic Assessment (“PEA”) study for its 100%-owned Khundii Gold Project (the “Project”) in southwest Mongolia. The PEA was prepared in accordance with National Instrument 43-101 Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects (“NI 43-101”) by RPMGlobal Asia Limited (“RPM”). The Company will… Read more »
Add a Topic
210
Add a Topic
1332
hendrixnuzzles
Guest
0

Thanks, Deanbob. I am still way long ERDCF even thought the announced reserves in the PEA were far under my estimate.

I am not a short-term trader so I just shrug it off. Erdene will be a valuable company someday.

Add a Topic
6000
deanbob
Member
660
When I read this quote in IKN this AM, I thought of some of your previous posts that you echo above. I, too, have some positions like that; some of these (ERDCF, CTEQF, IVPAF immediately come to mind) may end up being passed to my heirs – if these are not confiscated in the next decade or 2. “After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting… Read more »
Add a Topic
6000
Add a Topic
4687
Add a Topic
1246
hendrixnuzzles
Guest
0

Very shrewd, they can get going on an open pit for just $32 million capex.
They could raise this in about two seconds.
Who wouldn’t want this project for $32 million ?
And spot gold is already at $1300, with a pro forma of $1200/ounce.

Add a Topic
210
deanbob
Member
660
From today’s IKN re DRC: Not usual IKN material, but as this is an important report (that the FT has decided to leave outside its paywall) on the recent election in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the high likelihood of fraud having been committed there and the exposure that the mining industry has to the country, it’s a good link to offer on this humble corner of cyberspace. Right here, go read, here’s how it kicks off: Congo voting data reveal huge fraud in election to replace Kabila FT analysis of 2 voting databases shows Martin Fayulu won the… Read more »
hendrixnuzzles
Guest
0

Election fraud…imagine that. I’m glad we live in the United States.
LOL

hendrixnuzzles
Guest
0
The point about the DRC is that the politics are an unpredictable roller coaster, but certain assets like KKW and Kipushi will eventually be worth a lot more because the intrinsic value is there. It might be 2 years. Or 5 or 10. But someday these assets will be valued better, for sure. It is like buying a flooded muddy field that you know has a lot of gold coins in it. You don’t know when the field is going to dry out, or how hard it will be to find the coins, but you know the coins are there,… Read more »
Add a Topic
210
Add a Topic
3102
edski
Member
979

Would that flooded muddy field be Seabridge? Hello HN.

Long time no writing here, as I have been taken away from SG because of life’s happenings. Hope that everyone is doing well….(healthy, that is), cause I am sure that I know how everyone’s portfolio is doing.

Add a Topic
2480
Griffin
Member
2967

$MUX – MCEWEN MINING REPORTS 2018 FULL YEAR
AND Q4 PRODUCTION RESULTS

https://mailchi.mp/mcewenmining/mcewen-mining-reports-2018-full-year-and-q4-production-results?e=9dec8f6bb8

MUX long

Add a Topic
4054
denton
Irregular
396
K92 Mining. Long. Results of the Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) update. Mining production and plant processing capacity could be increased to 400,000 tonnes per annum over a period of approximately 12 months; Could achieve an NPV5 of US$710 million pre-tax , or US$559 million after tax, and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 350%; Over a 13-year period, the plant would treat 4.9 million tonnes averaging 9.0 g/t Au. 20 g/t Ag and 1.3% Cu; Average production of over 120,000 oz AuEq* per annum with cash costs of US$429/oz AuEq* and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of US$615/oz AuEq* ;… Read more »
Add a Topic
5331
Add a Topic
3868
Add a Topic
3213
denton
Guest
0
K-92 Mining long. VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Jan. 24, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — K92 Mining Inc. (“K92”) (KNT:TSXV, OTCQX: KNTNF) is pleased to announce it has been named to the 2019 OTCQX® Best 50, a ranking of top performing companies traded on the OTCQX Best Market last year. The OTCQX Best 50 is an annual ranking of the top 50 U.S. and international companies traded on the OTCQX market. The ranking is calculated based on an equal weighting of one-year total return and average daily dollar volume growth in the previous calendar year. Companies in the 2019 OTCQX Best 50 were… Read more »
Add a Topic
5331
deanbob
Member
660

Thank you for the updates. It was one of your posts from (what seems like yesteryear) that sparked an “aha” moment of review (near the bottom) and increase in my position.

CARLOS
Guest
0

How do you know when to sell ( KNTNF ) just made 52 weeks high ?

Add a Topic
5331
deanbob
Member
660

I think each person must determine that for themselves. I liked the numbers I saw; and I liked that they had a gold processing plant. This meant they could self finance part of their exploration – and very little of their claims were adequately explored. That being said, given what we know about K92, I am looking more at the price of gold and watching the drilling results.

Add a Topic
5331
Griffin
Member
2967

$FYI – Nickel Monthly News For The Month Of January 2019
by Matt Bohlsen @SA – Includes: AAUKF, AXNNF, BHP, ERMAY, FQVLF, GGIFF, GLCNF, HLPCF, IIDDY, LNZCF, NIKAY, NILSY, PANRF, PSDNF, RNKLF, SHERF, SMMYY, VALE, WNARF

Summary
Nickel spot prices were up slightly in January, and the LME inventory was slightly lower again.
Nickel market news – Depressed nickel prices leave nickel miners ripe for takeover.
Nickel company news – Cobalt27 makes a friendly takeover offer for Highlands Pacific.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4236276-nickel-monthly-news-month-january-2019?isDirectRoadblock=true

Add a Topic
964
Add a Topic
5315
hendrixnuzzles
Guest
0

Global Currency Rest…I think it is coming

Recent tweets by POTUS contain signals that can be interpreted that the GCR is coming.

15 nations are hinted at

deanbob
Member
660

Governments (national or world) can create modern money (credit) to infinity, but governments cannot create 1 ounce of gold, silver or any other precious metal.

Add a Topic
210
Add a Topic
443
hendrixnuzzles
Guest
0

We’ll see if the GCR gets off the ground. It will be great for the world and for gold…it will break the European bank and end the charade of the ever-diminishing USD.

Why would you want a Euro, when you could a currency that is actually
backed by gold ?

Add a Topic
1230
Add a Topic
210
deanbob
Member
660

With China establishing its own version of SWIFT and more countries trading directly with each other, the benefit of having the USD as the world’s reserve currency is diminishing. Add to that the seemingly unending increase of US debt, an intentional desire to inflate, and ANY intended or unintended consequences of economic malfeasance, owning gold and silver seems like a ‘no-brainer’ “insurance” to me.

Add a Topic
108
Add a Topic
210
Add a Topic
443
hendrixnuzzles
Guest
0

That’s another benefit to going to gold backed.

There will be no objections to USD as primary reserve currency from anyone (other than the banking cabal) if the USD is convertible to gold.

Why would anyone object ? The currency will have an established value compared to gold and the other gold-backed currencies.

Add a Topic
210
deanbob
Member
660

Who would object? Most politicians. Why? US Debt Clock show US debt a hair under $22T, with unfunded liabilities unofficially between $80t – $200t. The congressional budgeting has an auto 5% increase built in. The generally accepted idea is that politicians plan to deal with this debt by/through inflation. What do you think a gold back currency would do for these politicians? We can’t even get them to audit the FED!

Please don’t get me wrong. I am for the idea of sound money.

Add a Topic
717
Add a Topic
210
GeneH
Guest
0

FYI, I’m one of many who are long past believing anything our POTUS has to say.

On the other hand, it wouldn’t surprise me if he would like to destroy our dollar in the interest of destroying the value of his debts.

hendrixnuzzles
Guest
0

Let’s keep politics out of here, but many people pay very close attention to what he says, and find him very credible. I am one of them.

Don’t take free shots unless you can take one back.

eagerbeaver
Irregular
461

Excellent news from Ivanhoe Mines today.

An “unprecedented 22.3-metre intersection of 13.05% copper
in a shallow, flat-lying discovery at the Kamoa North copper exploration area on the Kamoa-Kakula mining licence”

https://www.ivanhoemines.com/site/assets/files/4127/2019-01-30_nr.pdf

Add a Topic
1576
Cowboy
Member
575
A good read here from a new study published in Nature Scientific Reports, Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania’s School of Engineering and Applied Science, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and the University of Cambridge : About a possible new use for Nickel. Researchers have made a surprising material out of Nickel. They have built a sheet of nickel with nanoscale pores that make it as strong as titanium but four to five times lighter. It is porous and could serve double duty as an airplane wing or prosthetic leg that’s also a battery…… https://phys.org/news/2019-01-metallic-wood-strength-titanium-density.html#jCp Got to buy me… Read more »
Add a Topic
964
hendrixnuzzles
Guest
0

From Bill Bonner’s letter

Why China Is Buying Gold Miners… And Why You Should Too

Editor’s Note: On Thursday, geologist and professional resource analyst Dave Forest showed you how gold protects your wealth during times of crisis. But gold can be more than just an insurance policy.

Today, Dave shows why he sees a boom coming for gold miners, and reveals why you’ll want to stake a claim for this “wild ride.”

By Dave Forest, Editor, International Speculator
*********************
Basic Rule:
If the Chinese want it, you should be LONG.
If the Chinese want to sell it, you should be OUT.

Add a Topic
108
Add a Topic
210
Add a Topic
6301
hendrixnuzzles
Guest
0

China wants: gold, food, technology, green technology, IP, information technology,
commodities, land and hard assets

China sells: manufactured goods & USD

Add a Topic
108
Add a Topic
210
Add a Topic
5242
Lulu
Member
1287
Hi All…I know how everyone is very busy but I think these are very interesting videos to consider. I listened to them yesterday. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JjPh45E8euk Cambridge House – speaks to Gold standard etc Thought it may interest others. There are other tidbits that follow which you can then decide to listen to or not; by clicking or not. The World Economic Conference is being held this weekend in Vancouver with Marty Armstrong speaking as well as many others. (pay per view only) Great ramblings from Rex Murphy on Energy and Canada which may be of interest. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_toqPJpyeGw A very good interview… Read more »
Add a Topic
210
Add a Topic
1515
deanbob
Member
660
Long ERDCF Erdene Files Khundii Gold Project Preliminary Economic Assessment Technical Report HALIFAX, Nova Scotia, Feb. 05, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Erdene Resource Development Corp. (TSX:ERD; MSE:ERDN) (“Erdene” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce the filing on SEDAR of the independent Preliminary Economic Assessment (“PEA”) Technical Report (the “Report”) for its 100%-owned Khundii Gold Project (the “Project”) in southwest Mongolia. The Report entitled “NI 43-101 Technical Report for the Preliminary Economic Assessment of the Khundii Gold Project”, dated February 4, 2019, was prepared in accordance with National Instrument 43-101 Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects (“NI 43-101”) by RPMGlobal… Read more »
Add a Topic
6000
Add a Topic
210
Griffin
Member
2967

$MUX – MCEWEN MINING PROVIDES UPDATE ON GOLD BAR MINE START-UP

https://us7.campaign-archive.com/?e=9dec8f6bb8&u=54884396b6f268cdab117f15a&id=2f87496641

MUX long

Add a Topic
4054
Add a Topic
210
eagerbeaver
Irregular
461

Ivanhoe Mines stock price jumps again, this time as a result of two major announcements by Robert Friedland during his keynote address at the 25th Annual African Mining Indaba today, February 6, in Capetown.

https://www.ivanhoemines.com/news/2019/ivanhoe-mines-announces-an-independent-pre-feasibility-study-pfs-for-the-tier-one-kakula-copper-mine-in-the-democratic-republic/

Long $IVPAF

Add a Topic
2963
Add a Topic
1246
Cowboy
Member
575
Cowboy