written by reader GOLD, SILVER, COPPER, AND HARD ASSETS…2019

By hendrixnuzzles, November 27, 2018

This is a late continuation of the predecessor thread titled:

“Gold, Silver, and Hard Assets…FALL 2017”…from which, I quote:

“Everyone makes mistakes and I make more than my share.” 

Well, I nailed that one. In 2018, overall my picks were not successful. 

Many of the mining speculations were duds. Plus the commodity price landscape was not favorable for the sector.

So there is no particular reason to listen to my opinions, more than anyone else’s.                         

Caveat emptor.  But here we go again, hopefully for a better year.

PURPOSE The purpose of this thread is find and discuss good long term investments and speculations  in gold, silver, and other selected metals. We are not a short-term trading thread, although occasionally there are short-term trading opportunities that may arise.

FOCUS Gold, silver, copper, nickel, platinum group metals, zinc, uranium.

NOT A FOCUS: Scandium, cobalt, aluminum, manganese, lithium, and aluminum; and developments in extraction and technology. These are better discussed on other threads.  Some overlap is unavoidable but keep it  to the minimum.

AUTHOR INTENT…Two themes:  long-term capital preservation based on metals, especially precious and demand industrials; and big capital gain speculations based on them. 

This second theme can lead to very speculative investments in exploration and development.

This can be in conflict with the theme of capital preservation, as it was for me in 2018.

I cannot fully reconcile this paradox, and  I can understand if a reader does not feel inclined to put money into these vehicles.

BIAS…Obviously I am biased to hard assets…see title of thread. I favor royalty companies, developers, and  miners.  My enthusiasm for exploration has been reduced, as my efforts in that sector were failures for the most part last year. But they are still entertaining, and the memory of a few big hits keeps me interested. 

I have significant positions in physical metals but it is boring to talk about them,                       

I believe in the concept of optionality as propounded by Rick Rule.

Because of this I am of the opinion that , in general, MINERS SUCK.

I am wary of big-cap miners, ETFs, and indexes.

I am strongly influenced by leadership and management. I am a  big fan of Robert Friedland. His companies have evolved into a major component of my portfolio and interest. I consider him to be without peer in the mining development business. I am partial to other personalities in the mining business, such as Watson, Sprott, Rule, Mcewen, Lundin, Keevil, Lassonde, and a few others.

My favorite jurisdictions are Canada and Australia, but I will look at sketchy neighborhoods if I think the story is compelling.

I believe gold and silver prices have been manipulated and suppressed by powerful groups, including and especially governments and central banks.

I think these efforts will eventually fail, but they can visit havoc on prices and values in the meantime ,and keep prices artificially low for long periods.

Accordingly, I have shifted a fair allocation of my holdings away from gold and silver, and into copper and other metals that I believe will benefit from the trend towards electrification.

POSITIONS My largest positions are Cleanteq Holdings, Sandstorm Gold, Ivanhoe Mines. My percentage of gold and silver assets is still probably much higher than that of most people.

Clean Teq is my largest position but is not a primary topic on this thread.

Positions :

Miners, even though they suck:         

  •  $IVPAF Ivanhoe Mines (multi-metal, 3rd largest position)
  • $MAG Mag Silver (silver)
  • $MUX Mcewen Mining (gold, copper)                                             
  • $SCCO Southern Copper

Royalty/streamers:

  • $SAND Sandstorm Gold (2nd largest position)
  • $WPM Wheaton Precious Metals

Developers:

  • $CTEQF Cleanteq  (#1 largest position, discussed on separate thread)
  • $SA  Seabridge Gold (gold)
  • $ERDCF Erdene Resource Development (gold)                       
  • $MGMXF MGM Minerals

Exploration speculations:

  • $CNRIF Condor Resources                                                             
  • $LNZCF Sama Resources**                                                                   
  • $SRI Sparton Resources**                                                               
  • $ARRRF Ardea Resources**                                                          
  • $CMDRF Commander Resources**                                                
  • $KVLQF Valore (formerly Kivalliq)**

**Sama, Sparton, & Ardea are discussed on Clean Teq thread; Commander and Kivalliq are “stub” positions left over from failed speculations

Exits…Kaizen, Cordoba, K92, Colorado, Pretium, Platina, UEC, Bear Creek
____________________________________________________
DISCLOSURES. I am a retired executive and an amateur investor. I like both fundamental and technical analysis. I surrender to flights of intuition and paranormal insights when they come to me.

I am a medium-term to long-term position player, and prefer to discuss stock investment in that context. As more of my capital moves into conviction stocks, my transactions have become smaller and less frequent, and my standards for taking new positions have become higher.

I am not an expert in any of the commodities discussed, nor am I qualified to give advice. And by no means do I have any expertise in geology or metallurgy.

I express opinions and positions. These are not advice or recommendations, which I remind you I am unqualified to make. I change my mind frequently and my opinions are subject to change at any moment. I intend to keep the thread current but I cannot guarantee that I will tell anyone when I have changed my mind on a particular stock .

CAVEAT EMPTOR. You are responsible for your decisions, and I am responsible for mine. Do your own due diligence. Remember, MINERS SUCK and most mining project FAIL.

***
POLITICS Political developments and topics should be introduced only when they have a clear relevance to the commodities or companies under discussion. An occasional outburst of outrage, disgust or indignation is tolerated and understandable. But keep it low, and no cheap shots.

POSTS We want a friendly, honest, and constructive atmosphere. Have fun, entertain yourself. But if you want to have fun by insulting people, go elsewhere. Be nice, or be gone.

Try to have reasons for your opinions.  Facts and speculations are both welcome, but try to distinguish between them.

Spelling, punctuation, and grammar matter. Everybody makes typographical errors and I am as guilty as the next person. But if you make a lot mistakes or are careless about these things, you are sure to be making errors in other more important things.  So…it’s annoying, and it detracts from your credibility even if your idea is good.

MODERATION AND CENSORSHIP As thread moderator I reserve to myself the role of referee, censor, arbiter, and Grand Poobah, subject to the over-arching authority of Travis, who owns the site and who has on occasion exercised his right to ruthlessly censor and suppress my radical blatherings.

If you are suspected of shilling or not having clean motives, or if you are a nuisance, I will cry to Travis,  ban you from the thread, and you can start a thread  of your own.

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.

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Lulu
Member
February 3, 2019 10:30 pm

Hi All…I know how everyone is very busy but I think these are very interesting videos to consider.
I listened to them yesterday.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JjPh45E8euk Cambridge House – speaks to Gold standard etc
Thought it may interest others.

There are other tidbits that follow which you can then decide to listen to or not; by clicking or not.
The World Economic Conference is being held this weekend in Vancouver with Marty Armstrong speaking as well as many others. (pay per view only)

Great ramblings from Rex Murphy on Energy and Canada which may be of interest.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_toqPJpyeGw

A very good interview on the Ben Shapiro show with our past Prime Minister Stephen Harper.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVNw03gyLmk

Lastly an interview with Maxime Bernier on The Rubin Report

Hopefully all the links I posted work.

In 2002/03 I drove from Vancouver to Texas. Somewhere between Salt Lake and Las Vegas, I stopped to check out the largest enclosure with the oddest things inside. An enormous barbwire compound gaurded by military and inside were hundreds of thousands ( by my count ) of two piece coffins held there. (matching uppers and lowers all bundled together, say 25 per bundle) I wondered what was going to happen that the military would require 000,000s of coffins.
Now that years have passed and nothing has happened, they must have been something else because if that many people die whether through war or illness, there will be no burying but a great burning…. This was acres of these ‘coffins’…..wish I had taken a picture.

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deanbob
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deanbob
February 5, 2019 9:34 am

Long ERDCF
Erdene Files Khundii Gold Project Preliminary Economic Assessment Technical Report

HALIFAX, Nova Scotia, Feb. 05, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Erdene Resource Development Corp. (TSX:ERD; MSE:ERDN) (“Erdene” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce the filing on SEDAR of the independent Preliminary Economic Assessment (“PEA”) Technical Report (the “Report”) for its 100%-owned Khundii Gold Project (the “Project”) in southwest Mongolia. The Report entitled “NI 43-101 Technical Report for the Preliminary Economic Assessment of the Khundii Gold Project”, dated February 4, 2019, was prepared in accordance with National Instrument 43-101 Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects (“NI 43-101”) by RPMGlobal Asia Limited (“RPM”). The Report is available under the Company’s profile at http://www.sedar.com and will also be available on the Company’s website at http://www.erdene.com.

“The PEA demonstrates the robust economics of the high-grade, low-capital Khundii Gold Project,” said Peter Akerley, Erdene’s President and CEO. “The 56% Internal Rate of Return (“IRR”) at a US$1,200/ounce (“oz”) gold price is amongst the highest in our peer group. Additionally, the Project’s after-tax Net Present Value at a 5% discount rate (“NPV5%”) of US$99 million increases to $124 million at a US$1,300/oz gold price, demonstrating the Project’s leverage to higher gold prices.”

“We have accepted RPM’s recommendation to proceed to a NI 43-101 Pre-Feasibility Study, and we have received proposals from engineering firms to lead the work, which we plan to award this quarter. Simultaneously, we are progressing as expected on securing mining licenses for the Project, which provide long-term security of tenure, and are finalizing exploration plans for the 2019 field season, as we seek to grow resources,” concluded Mr. Akerley.

PEA Highlights for Khundii Project Open Pit Gold Mine Development

The PEA envisions a high-grade, open-pit mine, producing an average of 51,200 oz per year at an average grade of 3.42 g/t gold over eight years. Mining will begin at the Bayan Khundii Striker Zone, expanding into adjacent zones within Bayan Khundii, prior to incorporating resources from the neighbouring Altan Nar deposit in later years. The development incorporates a conventional gravity separation circuit and a carbon-in-pulp plant with processing capacity of 1,800 tonnes per day. The key Project metrics are highlighted below:

After-tax NPV5% of US$99 million and IRR of 56% at a US$1,200/ oz gold price
After-tax NPV5% of US$124 million and IRR of 68% at a US$1,300/oz gold price, demonstrating significant leverage to gold prices
Low initial capital expenditure of US$32 million, using a contract mining fleet
All-in sustaining cash cost (“AISC”) of US$714/oz of recovered gold
Payback of less than 2 years
Opportunities to Enhance Project Value

The Company sees the following opportunities to increase value at the Khundii Gold Project:

Higher Grade Upside: The very high-grade nature of the deposit provides upside should continuity of the ultra high-grade zones be established during mining. The highest gold values in the block model supporting the PEA are 55 g/t, while more than 40 intersections ranging from 50 g/t to 2200 g/t gold were encountered during drilling.
Additional Resources at Bayan Khundii: Approximately 60,000 ounces of Indicated Resources and 70,000 ounces of Inferred Resources grading more than 4 g/t gold are located outside the designed mineable open pit for the PEA. The majority of these resources are contained within the West Striker Area, approximately 100 metres from the ultimate pit wall, situated at around 100 metres depth. Accessing these resources by underground methods will be considered in future study.
Additional Resources at Altan Nar: The majority of the resource contained at the Altan Nar Project remains undeveloped in the current PEA. Further drilling and metallurgical work is required to incorporate this material into development scenarios.
Exploration Potential: The Bayan Khundii and Altan Nar deposits are situated in a highly prospective region that has received minimal historical exploration. The Company, through its proprietary regional database and experience in the region, is well positioned to add resources through exploration.
Recovery Upside: The Bayan Khundii mineralized material has an average recovery of 92% in the PEA. However, master composite sample testing indicates that recoveries of up to 99% are possible for high-grade material. For Altan Nar material, an average recovery of 62% has been applied in the PEA due to arsenopyrite content of the ore. Master composite testing of representative samples from the Discovery Zone pit has returned recoveries of up to 88%. Further metallurgical testing could support higher recoveries.
Mine Planning: The PEA represents the first step toward addressing the viability of a mining operation at the Khundii Gold Project. Further work may identify cost saving opportunities such as improved pit sequencing through pit phasing, waste haul optimization including in-pit dumping, reduced dilution and loss through the application of more selective mining techniques and interim pit design targeting improved early grades.
Mine Equipment Selection: There is opportunity to consider Tier 2 suppliers for non-critical equipment, reducing capital and operating costs.
Land Acquisition: The Mongolian Ministry of Mining and Heavy Industry has recently reopened the tender licensing system, and the Company expects prospective licenses to be released in 2019. The Company has identified multiple priority targets within the surrounding regional district and will be an active participant in the tender processes for these properties.
Next Steps

The PEA indicates that the Khundii Gold Project is projected to be economically viable and RPM recommends that Erdene proceed to an independent NI 43-101 Pre-Feasibility Study in order to further assess the viability of the Project. The Company has created a Mining Studies Group to carry out mining, geotechnical, metallurgy, waste management, environmental, social impact and hydrogeology work to support the Pre-Feasibility Study in 2019.

Erdene initiated the mining license application process for Bayan Khundii in 2018 and experts have been appointed by Mongolia’s Mineral Council to review and approve the application, and Erdene has provided the necessary information in support. Experts have completed a site visit with a Mineral Council meeting anticipated later in Q1-2019. The Altan Nar mining license filing will take place in the first half of 2019. Mongolian mining licenses have a 30-year term and are renewable for up to two, further 20-year periods.

It is expected that the Project will advance through the final permitting approvals, feasibility and project finance by early 2020. Construction is anticipated to take one year and Erdene is targeting to commence production in 2021.

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Griffin
Irregular
Griffin
February 5, 2019 10:56 am

$MUX – MCEWEN MINING PROVIDES UPDATE ON GOLD BAR MINE START-UP

https://us7.campaign-archive.com/?e=9dec8f6bb8&u=54884396b6f268cdab117f15a&id=2f87496641

MUX long

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eagerbeaver
Irregular
eagerbeaver
February 6, 2019 10:59 am

Ivanhoe Mines stock price jumps again, this time as a result of two major announcements by Robert Friedland during his keynote address at the 25th Annual African Mining Indaba today, February 6, in Capetown.

https://www.ivanhoemines.com/news/2019/ivanhoe-mines-announces-an-independent-pre-feasibility-study-pfs-for-the-tier-one-kakula-copper-mine-in-the-democratic-republic/

Long $IVPAF

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Cowboy
Irregular
Cowboy
February 7, 2019 1:04 pm

From PV Magazine today about Silver demand…. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/02/07/silver-price-to-rise-7-this-year/ ….. Cowboy

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Griffin
Irregular
Griffin
February 19, 2019 7:59 pm

$MUX – MCEWEN MINING Q4 AND YEAR-END
2018 RESULTS CONFERENCE CALL

https://mailchi.mp/mcewenmining/mcewen-mining-q4-and-year-end-2018-results-conference-call?e=9dec8f6bb8

M UX long

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Griffin
Irregular
Griffin
February 21, 2019 12:53 pm

$MUX – MCEWEN MINING REPORTS 2018 FULL YEAR AND Q4 RESULTS

https://mailchi.mp/mcewenmining/mcewen-mining-reports-2018-full-year-and-q4-results?e=9dec8f6bb8

MUX long

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Griffin
Irregular
Griffin
March 6, 2019 11:57 am

$FYI – Top 5 Nickel Producers And Other Smaller Producers To Consider
by Matt Bohlsen – Includes: AAUKF, AMMCF, AXNNF, BHP, ERMAY, EV, FQVLF, GGIFF, GLCNF, HLPCF, IIDDY, LNZCF, NIKAY, NILSY, PANRF, PKX, PSDNF, RNKLF, SHERF, SMMYY, VALE, WNARF

Summary
Nickel prices, inventory, reserves, ore types, cost curves, and demand versus supply discussed.
Top 5 global nickel producers reviewed.
Smaller nickel producers and promising juniors listed.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4246690-top-5-nickel-producers-smaller-producers-consider?isDirectRoadblock=true

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Griffin
Irregular
Griffin
March 21, 2019 5:30 pm

$PVG – Independent Counsel Concludes Pretivm-Initiated Investigation

https://www.pretivm.com/news/news-details/2019/Independent-Counsel-Concludes-Pretivm-Initiated-Investigation/default.aspx

“Evidence of market manipulation through abnormal, high volume sell-side common share order cancellation during trading; sharp rise in open interest of short-dated put options leading up to September 6, 2018”

PVG np

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