GOLD, SILVER, COPPER, AND HARD ASSETS…2019

by hendrixnuzzles | November 27, 2018 3:06 pm

This is a late continuation of the predecessor thread titled:

“Gold, Silver, and Hard Assets…FALL 2017”…from which, I quote:

“Everyone makes mistakes and I make more than my share.” 

Well, I nailed that one. In 2018, overall my picks were not successful. 

Many of the mining speculations were duds. Plus the commodity price landscape was not favorable for the sector.

So there is no particular reason to listen to my opinions, more than anyone else’s.                         

Caveat emptor.  But here we go again, hopefully for a better year.

PURPOSE The purpose of this thread is find and discuss good long term investments and speculations  in gold[1], silver[2], and other selected metals. We are not a short-term trading thread, although occasionally there are short-term trading opportunities that may arise.

FOCUS Gold, silver, copper[3], nickel[4], platinum[5] group metals, zinc[6], uranium[7].

NOT A FOCUS: Scandium, cobalt[8], aluminum, manganese[9], lithium[10], and aluminum; and developments in extraction and technology. These are better discussed on other threads.  Some overlap is unavoidable but keep it  to the minimum.

AUTHOR INTENT…Two themes:  long-term capital preservation based on metals, especially precious and demand industrials; and big capital gain speculations based on them. 

This second theme can lead to very speculative investments in exploration and development.

This can be in conflict with the theme of capital preservation, as it was for me in 2018.

I cannot fully reconcile this paradox, and  I can understand if a reader does not feel inclined to put money into these vehicles.

BIAS…Obviously I am biased to hard assets…see title of thread. I favor royalty companies, developers, and  miners.  My enthusiasm for exploration has been reduced, as my efforts in that sector were failures for the most part last year. But they are still entertaining, and the memory of a few big hits keeps me interested. 

I have significant positions in physical metals but it is boring to talk about them,                       

I believe in the concept of optionality as propounded by Rick Rule[11].

Because of this I am of the opinion that , in general, MINERS SUCK.

I am wary of big-cap miners, ETFs, and indexes.

I am strongly influenced by leadership and management. I am a  big fan of Robert Friedland[12]. His companies have evolved into a major component of my portfolio and interest. I consider him to be without peer in the mining development business. I am partial to other personalities in the mining business, such as Watson, Sprott, Rule, Mcewen, Lundin, Keevil, Lassonde, and a few others.

My favorite jurisdictions are Canada[13] and Australia[14], but I will look at sketchy neighborhoods if I think the story is compelling.

I believe gold and silver prices have been manipulated and suppressed by powerful groups, including and especially governments and central banks.

I think these efforts will eventually fail, but they can visit havoc on prices and values in the meantime ,and keep prices artificially low for long periods.

Accordingly, I have shifted a fair allocation of my holdings away from gold and silver, and into copper and other metals that I believe will benefit from the trend towards electrification.

POSITIONS My largest positions are Cleanteq Holdings, Sandstorm Gold, Ivanhoe Mines. My percentage of gold and silver assets is still probably much higher than that of most people.

Clean Teq is my largest position but is not a primary topic on this thread.

Positions :

Miners, even though they suck:         

•  $IVPAF Ivanhoe Mines (multi-metal, 3^rd largest position)
• $MAG Mag Silver (silver)
• $MUX Mcewen Mining (gold, copper)                                             
• $SCCO Southern Copper

Royalty/streamers:

• $SAND Sandstorm Gold (2^nd largest position)
• $WPM Wheaton Precious Metals

Developers:

• $CTEQF Cleanteq  (#1 largest position, discussed on separate thread)
• $SA  Seabridge Gold (gold)
• $ERDCF Erdene Resource Development (gold)                       
• $MGMXF MGM Minerals
  

Exploration speculations:

• $CNRIF Condor Resources                                                             
• $LNZCF Sama Resources**                                                                   
• $SRI Sparton Resources**                                                               
• $ARRRF Ardea Resources**                                                          
• $CMDRF Commander Resources**                                                
• $KVLQF Valore (formerly Kivalliq)**

**Sama, Sparton, & Ardea are discussed on Clean Teq thread; Commander and Kivalliq are “stub” positions left over from failed speculations

Exits…Kaizen, Cordoba, K92, Colorado, Pretium, Platina, UEC, Bear Creek
____________________________________________________
DISCLOSURES. I am a retired executive and an amateur investor. I like both fundamental and technical analysis. I surrender to flights of intuition and paranormal insights when they come to me.

I am a medium-term to long-term position player, and prefer to discuss stock investment in that context. As more of my capital moves into conviction stocks, my transactions have become smaller and less frequent, and my standards for taking new positions have become higher.

I am not an expert in any of the commodities discussed, nor am I qualified to give advice. And by no means do I have any expertise in geology or metallurgy.

I express opinions and positions. These are not advice or recommendations, which I remind you I am unqualified to make. I change my mind frequently and my opinions are subject to change at any moment. I intend to keep the thread current but I cannot guarantee that I will tell anyone when I have changed my mind on a particular stock .

CAVEAT EMPTOR. You are responsible for your decisions, and I am responsible for mine. Do your own due diligence. Remember, MINERS SUCK and most mining project FAIL.

***
POLITICS Political developments and topics should be introduced only when they have a clear relevance to the commodities or companies under discussion. An occasional outburst of outrage, disgust or indignation is tolerated and understandable. But keep it low, and no cheap shots.

POSTS We want a friendly, honest, and constructive atmosphere. Have fun, entertain yourself. But if you want to have fun by insulting people, go elsewhere. Be nice, or be gone.

Try to have reasons for your opinions.  Facts and speculations are both welcome, but try to distinguish between them.

Spelling, punctuation, and grammar matter. Everybody makes typographical errors and I am as guilty as the next person. But if you make a lot mistakes or are careless about these things, you are sure to be making errors in other more important things.  So…it’s annoying, and it detracts from your credibility even if your idea is good.

MODERATION AND CENSORSHIP As thread moderator I reserve to myself the role of referee, censor, arbiter, and Grand Poobah, subject to the over-arching authority of Travis, who owns the site and who has on occasion exercised his right to ruthlessly censor and suppress my radical blatherings.

If you are suspected of shilling or not having clean motives, or if you are a nuisance, I will cry to Travis,  ban you from the thread, and you can start a thread  of your own.

Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2018/11/microblog-gold-silver-copper-and-hard-assets2019/