by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | December 7, 2018 9:54 pm
This is premium content. To view this article (and to have full access to the rest of our articles), sign up. Already a member? Log in.
Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2018/12/friday-file-a-time-for-nibblers/
Copyright ©2024 Stock Gumshoe unless otherwise noted.
Travis, two weeks ago on your Friday File you said that you thought that the next rational buy for Nvida was at $150, and at the time you said you would begin to consider it again at that price. I had hoped you would mention Nvdia again this Friday I have read so many divergent analysts’ perceptions of Nvdia since it’s stock fell. I am wondering if you still began considering to buy it at that price.or if your estimate of it’s worth has changed. Also I am wondering if you still think it is a good stock to hold on to, even if originally purchased at a higher price.
I wasn’t allowed to sell, so there was nothing to buy back… which means I didn’t cover the moves as closely, sorry. There’s clear risk in the sentiment shift, but I still think there’s a strong valuation argument to be made near $150.
It might help to look at NVDA’s candlestick chart over the last couple of years to determine a good double-down buy or re-entry point for the stock. One-and-a-half years ago, from mid-May to the beginning of July 2017, the price range for NVDA averaged around $145, near enough to just this past Friday’s (12/7/18) closing price of $147 but some 18 months apart.
So if you still believe in the strength of NVDA’s graphics processing potential (as I still do), look to the summer of 2017 for a reasonable re-buy; hopefully it will be lower than what’s showing in the short-seller’s radar. The good news is I did just that – bought at ~$134 (which was the May 18-19, 2017 price range) soon after NVDA had plummeted some 28% following its disastrous Earnings report last month. The bad news is that I only nibbled into a tiny position to test my hunch instead of trusting what the candlestick chart was already indicating. Live and learn.
As I dodged Chemistry classes in my schooldays, I had to do a quick Merriam Webster look-up of “fentanyl”. Sigh…make that heavy sigh. But why should I be surprised? If beer and chocolate are on their way to being laced (if not already unofficially), why not coffee, too? Here I was being grateful that SBUX has managed to navigate volatility hell quite well, relative to both stocks-at-large and its peers in the consumer staples/defensive category. Thanks anyway, Travis, for the heads-up. Would anyone care to advise me on this now rare double-digit % gainer? (Sorry, I don’t do Options.)
@bunion132… it sounded as if Travis was joking about the fentanyl lacing .
It is his kind of humor, I guess, pointing out to us that anything is possible and we do not really know what will happen tomorrow if some crazy news like this ‘fentanyl lacing ‘ would happen.
Please, correct me if i am wrong Travis.
Don’t you mean when adding that you will be buying under average not “over average”?
Hey Travis – are you leaning towards divesting any of the other (not commented upon) stocks that are below the stop-loss triggers?
TIA!
I’ve reduced position size in a bunch of them (many first hit stop losses a while back), which I wrote about as it happened, but I look at them case by case. No other new stop losses triggered that caused me to reconsider this week, but some are close.
I would like to know where you set your stop loss, and if you use a
trailing stop loss. Your site has been very helpful.
I watch trailing stop losses that are set by TradeStops.com — essentially, they trigger when a stock drops below its normal trading range, so a more stable stock might have a 12% stop loss and a volatile one might be at 40-50% or more.
I don’t follow the stops every time, but they are good for stocks without a fundamental valuation that makes me comfortable — a stop is a good indicator of momentum/trend breaking down, so if the stock depends on sentiment to a large degree (like one of the little growth stocks that’s not profitable yet), then I am more likely to sell when that trigger price is hit…. but hitting the stop loss does always force me to re-analyze and check my opinion and argument to decide whether to continue holding or not.
Thanks for another great Friday File, and especially for sharing your feelings on the latest with $TDOC. Added 1 share of COR and 2 shares of MGM to my humble portfolio this week (thanks commission free trading!).
Looking forward to heading into 2019 with this year’s gained Gumshoe insight and continuing to grow my small portfolio of starter positions. I’ve learned a lot since I joined here (can’t recall when I first signed on), mostly patience and discipline from your running Real Money Portfolio commentary and analysis.
According to CNets Insider, Qualcomms’ chip will be coming to the next Samsung and Apple phones
CNET claimed this recently? Samsung is already using QCOM chips and will likely release a 5G phone, probably still using Qualcomm and at least a year before Apple has a 5G iPhone. AAPL could go back to QCOM, but that’s very much uncertain until they begin to settle their lawsuits (and even then, no guarantees).
Travis, i wanted to add a topic. Its about the Gold sector. I just watched a video of Nick Hodges .75 cent Gold miner stock. His tease is 20 million ounces of gold at this mine. 10,000% gains on Americas biggest gold mine. The big players are John Paulson and the Pentagon.
It’s all in his news letter, Wall Streets Underground Profits. What Stock can the Thinkolater come up with?
That’s likely still Midas Gold, which they’ve been teasing similarly all year. Last covered here: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews/underground-profits/hodges-nobody-knows-about-americas-biggest-gold-discovery-pick/