Friday File: Selling and Buying in Big Insurance and Data Centers, and some Quarterly Updates
by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | May 3, 2019 4:45 pm
Updated thoughts (and some portfolio moves) on Berkshire, Fairfax Financial, Markel, Apple, Alphabet, Arista, Crown Castle, Shopify, The Trade Desk and more...
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2019/05/friday-file-selling-and-buying-in-big-insurance-and-data-centers-and-some-quarterly-updates/
Thank you for your valuable analysis Travis. I have been frustrated with Fairfax’s poor performance. You just assured me that I will be making a right decision.
Thank you very much for the valuable blatheration!!!
Better than any book I’ve read (and there have been many…too much stansberry garbage I suspect, thanks Dad). lol
Seriously though Travis, it’s much appreciated,
Hi Travis. I sold SHOP back in March @$204. Talk about seller’s remorse! LOL
If it makes you feel any better, I sold my SHOP shares for well under $150 last year! And that was far from the worst investing decision I made-so don’t be too hard on yourself.
Well at least you all made some money on SHOP. I never bought any shares lol.
Sold mine for $110 a couple years ago.
Remorse is selling 100 shares of MKL, Markel that I bought at $375.00 and selling them all at $776… only to continue to $1000. That’s the definition of remorse.
Great conversation Travis. Thx
I just want to say that there is a lot of content here for the fee I pay, and that I am a very satisfied customer. Congratulations on being a pillar of success in the industry.
Glad to hear your thoughts on TTD. I suppose I’ll hold. It’s going to be an interesting ride with TTD, iipr, and okta reporting soon.
@Travis, Thanks for the enlightening and sincere commentaries. I really empathize with you on the emotional roller coaster with the ownership of some of the hyper-growth companies, particularly TTD going into the week. My suspicion is that TTD will surprise significantly on the guidance based on the following: 1) I don’t think the impact of China is reflected in the current expectation; 2) they are going into China on the ground floor and will not encounter the wall green partial shutout as currently obtains in the US; 3) their pricing information liberalization approach may be taking root in the US and partly responsible for the revenue growth issues being experienced by Google. This is definitely inevitable as Amazon and the internet have used it effectively to disrupt many industries; 4) TTD’s size relative to the walled greens gives it tremendous leverage because it only needs to take a very small market share to experience tremendous growth in revenue.
Finally, the earnings call coming in the morning points to Jeff Green doing it from Asia and may want to highlight their operational presence there. Note: I am very long TTD.
Nice article.
Regarding options check out TastyTades and Tasyworks
You can learn about options without spend a dime on tasttrade.com. I have spent a few bucks with other option trader services over the last 4-5 years and though they have offered some help and suggested trades nothing close to what TT offers for free.
They also offer a robust trading platform (tastyworks) with cheap trading fees. Specialize in small accounts. In addition offer options on futures which I have not done. I opened an account and put 100 bucks in to test it out.
BTW I have not ties with tastytrade other than I use their educational service and opened an account with them.
Hi, I’m a new here! Thank you for the invaluable analysis, it is clear that you put in a tonne of effort researching stocks and industries unfamiliar to you and your style of writing and depth of analysis is unparalleled on online newsletters and forums. Seeing that Nokia has gone well below your buy price (on European markets already down to 4.49 euros this morning) do you recon now might be a good time to load up again, and this might be a last low before some good news is bound to hit and the price spikes. I know the stock is very price sensitive to news, just not sure if I should buy more now or wait a bit more. Also I noticed you don’t own any Alibaba/tencent/ Chinese tech stocks, is there any particular reason for this? With Trump threatening to raise taxes in his tweets yesterday and markets down 5% do not think this is an opportunity to get in, hoping that a deal will still be made?
Thanks in advance for your help,
Regards,
ShhShh
Nokia should have a stronger second half of the year and much stronger 2020 as 5G investment heats up, but “should” is not the same as “will” and the company is large and the stock will react to economic sentiment.
I added to my NOK position a couple weeks ago after their earnings disappointment, and there isn’t any fundamental change to the business or their prospects, so I still would consider it a buy here… but I’ve bought at a variety of prices over the past six months or so and my position is now in the red, so I haven’t been right in the short term so far.
I haven’t bought many Chinese tech stocks lately because I haven’t been able to find many appealing ones to buy at current prices. There are certainly some strong growth stocks in that segment and I’ve owned some in the past, and I might be behaving a bit too skittishly given that so many of the China stocks move en masse with every trade Tweet. I do expect that investments in consumer-facing Chinese stocks will work out well over the next decade.
Nokia: Investments In R&D Are Starting To Pay Off https://seekingalpha.com/article/4261003?source=ansh $NOK
Trade Note: ZAYO
The Zayo (ZAYO) deal is finally done now, should we sell right away?
I see no real likelihood of a competing bid, which could have emerged a couple weeks ago but did not, so selling near the offer price seems to make the most sense. The deal will require regulatory approval and shareholder approvals and take some time, so in my mind, “when to sell” is mostly a question of the time value of the money. At $33.20, where it is right now, I think it’s a sell.
I’ll go more into the math on Friday if anyone’s interested, but I essentially decided that I’d rather have the cash than a 5.7% return from here to the deal’s closing (which will probably be early in 2020, though nothing is certain).
I went into this looking at the stock as being about 30% undervalued in February, with the thinking that it should close that value gap over the next two years thanks to REIT conversion, with a small chance that a takeover might mean that return comes in a few months instead of a couple years… then the takeover chatter heated up, and we get that valuation gap closed immediately and I’m selling the shares 28% higher (my return is lower than that, since I added to the position when the takeover looked more likely). It’s a bit odd that things work out so closely to the rumors, and fairly quickly, but I’ll take that as a nice quick win.
Took a nice profit on Zayo! Thank you, Travis!
I’m glad it worked out for you!
Travis, thanks for the detailed analysis. Your guidance adds so much value to your readers. Keep up the good work!
Broker Fidelity has Fairfax India (FFXDF) listed as Rule 144A (restricted to restricted institutional trading).
They cannot sell me any and do not know how I got my 300 shares from them in October 2017.
Travis – will Interactive Brokers (or whomever) sell you more FFXDF ?
(also I wanted to see if this post tags me as Irregular)
…later edit
(hmmm, it didn’t. I am for-sure logged in.)
I usually buy the Toronto listed shares through Interactive Brokers, and yes, that works fine. Haven’t tried to trade it using FFXDF lately.