Friday File: Dividends Keep Climbing

by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | December 13, 2019 5:21 pm

It’s “goodwill toward all” season, right? So now is the time to get ready to be nice to yourself.

I don’t know whether this trade war will end, or if impeachment will lead to something bigger, or whether President Trump will find a way to goose the stock market again next year to boost his chances for re-election… but at some point we’re almost certainly going to transition from this bull market to a bear market (no one knows when, or for how long, which is why we prepare a little bit but don’t bet on the timing), and that transition tends to cause significant emotional and psychological strain for people who are actively involved in the stock market. If you’re trading at all, you’re going to make a lot of buys and sells during the transition that look terrible and make you feel terrible, even if (as is typical) the bear market doesn’t last all that long.

So prepare yourself… and be ready to give yourself a break. Thinking ahead of time gives you power, because when it happens you can say, “ah, well, it had to come sometime” and move on, instead of chasing the mistakes you’re making with more mistakes.

During a bull market, the short term feedback loop of the market tells you that every single time you sell a stock it’s a mistake… during a bear market, every single time you buy a stock it’s a mistake. It weighs on you, and it can cause paralysis (I’m sure most of you have been there, I definitely have — many people took their money out of the market in 2009 and still haven’t gotten back to being fully invested, missing out on tremendous gains because they couldn’t face the chance of more of the pain that the 2008/9 crash caused).

That means today, before that bear market hits, it’s time to get ready for the emotional toll that will probably take — but also to set yourself up to succeed through that next bear market. Focus either on being a steady buyer no matter what and sticking to a reasonable investment plan (ie, doing the smart thing and putting $X into a globally diversified index fund each month), or on studying up on specific companies so that you can be an informed owner and build up a comfort level with the prospects for that individual business — because it’s that comfort level and expertise that you build today that will let you hold through a decline or, better yet, buy more at lower prices. Stocks that go up are fun, but fortunes are made when stocks are going down, people are panicking, and you have enough confidence in your analysis to make rational decisions about which ones to buy and which ones to avoid.

I’m trying pretty hard to do both of those things with my money — keep investing each month in diversified funds to meet my portfolio goals, but also, with the portion of my portfolio that’s in individual stocks, try to dig further into the companies I find interesting so that I’ll have the stomach to buy them when they fall (or sell them if the thesis I’m basing my investment on turns out to be wrong).

If you’re spending all your time fretting about the trade war or the latest economic headlines, and thinking about when the market is going to “top out,” that’s an unproductive use of your mental energy — you can’t predict big macro moves in the market (no one else can, either), and if you bet on that in any major way the odds are very high that you’ll have lost both time and money. Spend that time instead doing something that either gives you and your family joy or pays you money, and let the market take care of itself without your fretting… or, if you’re a bit obsessive like I am, put in your time doing research in the real businesses that you’re investing in so that you can become a better and more informed owner of those companies and be prepared to act on that insight in the future.

That’s all for my soapbox comment today, so let’s get on to look at what’s happening with some of the Real Money Portfolio[1] stocks… there’s been a lot of dividend-related news that’s catching my eye.

*****

Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR) announced yet another huge dividend increase, so the quarterly dividend is now at $1 per share… a 185% increase over the dividend paid a year ago, and a 28% sequential increase from the dividend paid last quarter. That’s now six dividend increases since they paid their first dividend in June of 2017… and the yield is now well over 5% (about 5.4% at $73.50), which is ludicrously high for a company that is an aggressive dividend grower — and I’d say that’s entirely because of the perceived risk of the marijuana business.

IIPR is a marijuana grow facility REIT, in case you’re new to us here at Stock Gumshoe (I’ve written about this one a lot), they do sale-leasebacks with marijuana growers to buy those properties and pay for investments in major renovations or expansion, in exchange for long-term leases with unusually high cap rates (in the 11-15% range, 50-100% higher than most real estate returns). I’ve owned it for a year and a half or so, doing some trading in and out but generally increasing my position. Uncertainty reigns today because most of the US pot stocks are not doing very well, and sales have been below projections in newly-legal states, so everyone’s panicked about whether or not marijuana companies will be able to pay their rent.

There has been a lot of equity financing available for some of the better marijuana growers until the last six months or so, particularly the multi-state operators who have real revenue growth, so some of their tenants have pretty good cash cushions and can easily pay their rent — but for IIPR’s earlier-stage tenants who don’t really have revenue yet, in states where the legal market is just getting going, those rents are likely being paid with the cash that IIPR gave them to purchase and upgrade their facilities. This isn’t unexpected, IIPR knew what it was getting into by essentially financing startups, but it’s still a little nerve-wracking for investors.

The question remains: is IIPR’s diligence good enough, and are their tenants going to survive (or if they don’t survive, is the property valuable enough to justify IIPR’s investment?)… and that’s mostly a question of, “will indoor marijuana growing in the US be a profitable business.” If it is, then IIPR will do fantastically well… if it isn’t, and the biggest culprit there is the competitive threat of the thriving black market, then things will get ugly. This dividend increase is yet another indication of optimism from management, so that’s good, but it’s also an acknowledgement that they have to keep their investors happy because they will need to raise more money in the future to fund more deals, and that will probably primarily be raised by selling more stock.

Their largest tenants seem to still be doing OK, we don’t know much about PharmaCann because it’s still private (after that failed merger with MedMen), but Cresco Labs is still a $750 million company and is roughly breaking even, and Trulieve has better revenue growth than Cresco, was able to raise a bunch of money in a convertible bond offering a couple months ago, and is actually profitable. That’s a reasonable triumvirate of large multi-state operators to build on for IIPR, though they also have a dozen or so much smaller tenants at properties around the US whose financials we know next to nothing about (the only one we know for sure is a disaster is one of their smallest tenants, DionyMed, which is in receivership but whose property in LA is also, at least according to IIPR, in demand and should be relatively easy to lease to another marijuana tenant if necessary).

And Executive Chairman Alan Gold appeared to do a little more insider buying this week, as well — though this was really just (another) move to sell some of his preferred shares and use that money to buy common stock. Which is certainly the sensible move with the preferreds at $30 and the common stock at $75, unless you think IIPR is going to go bankrupt and be liquidated in the next couple years (the effective yield on those preferreds to the call date is now only about 5%, lower than the common stock dividend… and the common stock dividend keeps rising while the preferred stock never will).

IIPR could fall below $40 if one of their big tenants defaults on leases, but it could also be well above $200 within a year if investors begin to believe that marijuana cultivation is a sustainable business in the US. I’m still betting on the latter being the eventual result, but that doesn’t mean I’m 100% certain that’s how it will work out (which is why I have my position partially hedged with puts)… we’ll see. This is a highflier that has come partway back down, and that means it’s going to be subject to amazing whipsaw action that it will be hard not to react to — so I’m trying very hard to focus on the fundamentals: Are their tenants still paying rent, and are any of them obviously on the path to serious financial problems that will cause IIPR’s assets to be devalued?

Beyond that, if 90% of their tenants stay healthy and keep paying rent, and indoor marijuana growing remains a viable business in future years, IIPR is a no-brainer here given their growth, and especially their dividend growth… and, interestingly, the collapse in the pot market has also really hobbled some of their potential competitors, at least in the public markets, so sometimes being a “first mover” and being bold in pushing growth even during up-and-down markets becomes a huge advantage over time.

There is one emerging private REIT that has made a bit of a splash recently, that’s GreenAcreage, which was essentially created to buy up a pipeline of properties owned by Acreage Holdings, a big multistate operator (Acreage Holdings is publicly traded and has been touted by newsletters in the past, GreenAcreage is still private) — they raised $140 million over the summer, and just did a sale-leaseback with one of Cresco’s other facilities, so it’s not as though IIPR owns the business… but they do have a nice early lead and, as a public company, they probably have a lower cost of capital than GreenAcreage. It will be interesting to see if GreenAcreage goes public at some point, they do have executive leadership with impressive REIT experience, led, like IIPR, by an executive chairman who’s been around a few blocks (GreenAcreage’s Executive Chairman Gordon DuGan and most of their key execs helped build W.P. Carey, one of the leaders of the net-lease space). That’s perhaps negative if it means the competition is really going to heat up, but it’s also good because it reinforces the appeal of these kinds of investments… and the viability of the marijuana growing business in the US.

I’m still leaning positive, and I’m hoping to avoid making mistakes driven by the stock price — hopefully I’ll be able to react to the business developments, not to the volatile stock price, stay tuned.

*****

CoreSite (COR), our data center REIT, caused a hiccup in their dividend growth pattern this week, which is generally a bad sign. They’re paying $1.22 a share for this next quarter, announced on Wednesday, and that’s the first time they haven’t raised the dividend in December in a long time. Is there a problem?

This slowdown of dividend growth is what I thought was coming when I took my first profits in CoreSite back in early 2018, because they had used up the “free ride” of going from an almost-unlevered REIT to a REIT with average leverage (that addition of debt to the balance sheet, along with good real growth, helped to fuel a truly remarkable string of dividend increases from 2013-2018), but I was about a year early in that assessment. They switched from once-a-year dividend increases (in December) back in 2017, when they started to also increase the dividend in May… and they’ve been consistent with their twice-a-year dividend increase pattern for the past couple years until… well, until this week, when the expected December dividend announcement turned into a surprise non-raise.

That’s not to say CoreSite is surely done with dividend increases… they are still growing, just more slowly than they expected, and they could theoretically increase the dividend in any future quarter — and could increase it next spring and still be on an annual increase pace to keep their “dividend growth” reputation, though I don’t think they’ll have double-digit dividend increases anytime soon like they did for many years (for a while, their dividend increases were in the 25-50% range each year).

So one non-raise doesn’t change the investment in any big way, but it does change the expectations, at least for me. And while CoreSite is on track for some decent growth in late 2020 and 2021 as their pipeline of new capacity gets built back up (for 2018 and into 2019 they had very little new capacity come online, so growth was muted), the concern now is that after several years of dividend growth that outpaced the growth in their income or funds from operations (FFO, a REIT cash flow measure), the dividend is at this point barely covered by FFO. The current run rate of FFO per share is about $5.10, and the current annualized dividend at $1.22 per quarter is going to cost COR $4.88 per share.

That doesn’t leave much wiggle room, particularly for a data center REIT that has historically paid out much less of its cash flow (this is not a triple-net lease company where they just sit back and take the rent, they have real operating costs and the need for constant investment to keep their data centers competitive), and there have been some delays and disappointments in the portfolio (the LA3 center is way behind schedule because of permitting, there’s been some above-average churn with the loss of a couple large tenants in Silicon Valley and Boston, and the Northern Virginia market is apparently very oversupplied at this point, with pricing suffering a bit), which is presumably why they’re no longer talking about “double digit” revenue growth in 2020 (so far this year the growth has been more in the 5% neighborhood), and why the dividend was kept flat.

Right now, CoreSite pays a dividend yield of 4.4% (at $110 a share). That’s pretty good, and they might be able to increase the dividend at some point next year because they are looking at what they hope will be a little uptick in growth late in 2020 as some of their new facilities come online, particularly LA3 (which has been largely pre-leased)… so I’m not inclined to sell the balance of my position at this point, but it’s not out of the question. The stop loss trigger these days is right around $100, and I will keep an eye on that and re-assess if we get there, or if the shares again trade at more of a premium valuation to tempt me to shave off some more profits.

Dividend growth and expectations of future dividend growth is what drove COR for five or six years, and the expectations of that slowing are presumably what flattened the stock chart out over the past year or so… which means share price growth expectations should be very muted for the next six months, but the stock doesn’t necessarily have to fall from here. At 4.4%, I think the expectation of very slow growth is probably pretty well priced in… but expectations do change, and sometimes quickly, so do keep in mind that if “the market” suddenly decides that they need a 5.3% dividend yield to make CoreSite appealing, that would mean the stock drops 20% or so from here.

*****

I’ve also been close to buying more Crown Castle (CCI) as the shares dipped a little bit in recent weeks, and today I did pull the trigger and add to that position, increasing it by about 20%. This is similarly a tech-focused infrastructure company, though focused on towers, small cells and fiber as opposed to CoreSite’s focus on high-value urban data centers with dense interconnections — mostly because Crown Castle is a more stable and sustainable (and far larger) company that should be able to increase the dividend by 7-8% a year even if things don’t go fantastic.

As of now, the adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) for CCI is expected to be $5.94 for 2019, 8% growth over 2018, and they’re guiding to 2020 having 7% growth on top of that to $6.33 per share. On the back of that, they increased the dividend last quarter by 7%, to $1.20 per quarter ($4.80 per year) — so you can see there’s still a decent amount of cash flow coverage for that dividend, as long as you think the adjustments they’ve made to create AFFO are reasonable. CCI doesn’t post huge dividend increases, but they have been extremely steady — and steadiness and predictability earns a higher multiple. The shares at about $131 are now trading at a forward Price/AFFO ratio of about 20, and with an expected dividend yield of 3.6%.

That’s obviously not enough to make you get super-excited about the payouts, but how does that work over the longer term? Let’s do the math, just to reinforce the value of reinvesting dividends in a steady dividend growth company.

If they are able to keep growing the dividend by 7% a year, as I believe is likely given the strong demand for bandwidth and the growing importance of wireless communication, boosted by the 5G rollout and the low cost of debt financing, then in five years the stock will be paying an annual dividend of about $6.73 per share. Assuming that you reinvest those dividends into new shares along the way, and the shares rise in value at roughly the growth rate of the dividend (as is fairly common for REITs over the longer term, though changing interest rate expectations are a big wild card), then you should end up with about 20-25% more shares than you started with, depending on timing. Even if the shares only rise by 4% a year on average over that time instead of keeping up with the 7% dividend growth, you end up with CCI stock at about $160 per share five years from now, paying out roughly $6.70 per share in dividends.

On the stock performance chart that would look like a fairly tepid gain of 22%. But if you had started out with 100 shares today at $131 each, just to make it an easy example, you put down $13,100 to buy your stake and the annual dividend is $480… and if those projections hold for five years of reinvested dividends you could end up with roughly 120 shares, and with a position valued at $19,200 that’s paying you $804 per year in dividends. That’s not as dramatic as these illustrations tend to be with higher-yielding (and perceived higher risk) stocks, but it’s still pretty good compounding — that’s an effective yield of 6.1% or so on your original cost basis, to go along with a capital gain of almost 50%.

You don’t need drama and excitement to build a nest egg, as long as you have the time to let your investments compound… but you do need patience to keep from interrupting that compounding process, and you need to avoid choosing many investments that blow up completely. Steady dividend growers are not necessarily inexpensive these days, so there’s risk in betting big on them at a point like today when they’re generally quite popular… but I don’t think CCI gets enough credit for the size and steadiness of its payouts in a low-interest world.

Of course, if the 10-year note returns to what we used to consider “normal” in a year or two, and is above 4%, then all that goes out the window and all the REITs will probably get “cheap” again as yield-hungry retirees rush back to the safer bonds that let them clip coupons without heartburn. REITs in general do just fine when rates drift upward over the long term, we think (though there haven’t been many real tests of that scenario in the past 30 years), but in the short term there’s a strong likelihood that all income investments that are currently trading as “kind of like bonds” will overreact to shifting interest rate expectations. Maybe we’ll see a buying opportunity from that, but I’ve been looking for one for a few years now and haven’t had much luck on that front, so I just keep adding in smaller bites to the positions that seem rational to me… and CCI is one of those.

****

Another is Kennedy-Wilson (KW), which just increased its dividend by pretty much the minimum reasonable amount again this week, going from 21 cents a quarter to 22 cents, which gets the forward yield just barely back to 4% at $22 a share. I still like this company a lot, mostly because of its strategy — KW is a nimble real estate investor and developer, they buy in growing areas (like Salt Lake City recently), sell in overly hot ones (like Seattle), and build up a portfolio of steady cash-flowing properties that they can hold longer term, mostly office and apartment projects… and also act as an asset manager, using money from insurance companies and other institutions alongside their own and charging a management fee for that. I do also appreciate the dividend and the gradual dividend growth, but it’s not exactly a cheap stock — and it has generally gotten cheap every now and again with shifts in sentiment, so while it’s reasonable to keep nibbling, and I’ll take another wee bite here below $22, I wouldn’t go in big… for a big bet I’d wait for the next time the world panics about interest rates or whatever else and the stock drops back to the teens (which, of course, might not happen anytime soon).

The reason that this one popped into my mind, though, was that they were a little sneaky this time around — they announced a dividend increase just a couple hours before they announced that they’ve filed a registration statement to offer 13.7 million shares to the market, and those kinds of secondary offerings, even if they don’t really mean anything, do tend to depress the share price (this is mostly just the registration of the shares that will be created when some of their preferred shares are converted into common stock, though they did also file a shelf offering that will let them raise money pretty much whenever they want). I think that actually presents a small opportunity, which is why I added today, since typically a dividend increase will help the stock out a bit… but that didn’t happen this time, since the secondary offering registration took the wind out of their sails.

Kennedy-Wilson is often valued like a REIT, but it is not a REIT and does a lot more trading of properties than most of its near-peers, so the income statement is a little wacky… but I do still like management. My significant concern with KW is their recent inability to grow book value per share — they had a nice run from 2009 to 2015 in growing book value per share, but in the past few years that value has been slowly falling, not growing. That might turn around here soon with some of their new projects and investments, particularly if Europe stabilizes, but it’s certainly not guaranteed (and we probably won’t hear anything else official from them until they report their next quarter in late February).

*****

Which sends me off on a little bit of a tangent… I think I first heard of Kennedy-Wilson from Chris Mayer many years ago (though I bought it much more recently), and he also popped up in my news feed this week because he posted his “Ideas for 2020” [2]that has some interesting investment thoughts — worth a read, and he again highlights Fairfax India (FIH-U.TO, FFXDF) as an appealing way to buy into India (like me, he particularly likes their crown jewel asset, the controlling stake in Bangalore Airport — I took a tax loss on Fairfax India, but still do hold some, and intend to buy that position back next year), which is perhaps not contrarian but is, at least, a little controversial (his other ideas are basically “buy something in the UK”, perhaps InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG), “buy something in energy,” and leave yourself room to buy more throughout the year).

But thinking of that also took be back to the days when Mayer was writing a newsletter and pitching his “Coffee Can” portfolio — the idea that you buy five stocks, bury them in a (metaphorical) coffee can and don’t ever sell them, and come back decades later to great returns, thereby avoiding the temptation to buy and sell all the time. And Kennedy-Wilson was one of those stocks he touted last time I covered one of those teasers for his Agora newsletter back in 2015[3]. So I thought I’d go back and check to see how those five stocks he teased have done…

… and it ain’t pretty. I only identified four of the five (Kennedy-Wilson (KW), Howard Hughes (HHC), Retail Opportunities Investment Corp (ROIC), and Greenlight Reinsurance (GLRE), and a reader made a good case for First Capital Realty (FCR.TO, FCRGF) to be the fifth), and I should offer a few caveats — this is cherry-picking one bad group of promoted ideas and I like Chris’ writing generally, and we haven’t had those decades pass by just yet to give a fair reckoning, so it’s perhaps not terribly fair to point this out… but after almost five years, here’s the performance of that four-stock portfolio (KW in blue, HHC in orange, ROIC in red, GLRE in green, and the S&P 500 in purple for comparison):

KW Total Return Price Chart[4]

I should also point out that at the time I owned a couple of those stocks, along with Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Holdings, which was and is a major holder of HHC (now getting permission to increase its ownership still further). I did not treat them as coffee can holdings, and sold all of those years ago (ROIC with a gain, PSH and GLRE with losses)… and I first bought KW back in the Spring of 2018 when the value finally started to catch up with the share price, so that has done pretty well (beating the S&P 500 by a few points, actually, up 25% vs. the S&P 500’s 22% after that first purchase). First Capital, if that was the other stock, has had performance essentially identical to ROIC, which makes sense since they’re very similar businesses (both own shopping centers).

So it may or may not mean anything real, but I thought it was interesting — not least because I was pretty convinced of the quality of several of those companies back in 2015, too, and as a group they still did very poorly over a long period of time. It’s important to look back at your bad calls sometimes, and force a little humility into your swollen head, even if it’s unhealthy to really dwell on them.

*****

Other news? Akerna (KERN) stock has been surging for no reason, which makes me sorely tempted to get in and open another hedged short position (since the warrants, of which I still hold a few as a remnant of to my prior hedged short, are pretty cheap)… but I can’t, the cost to borrow is just too high (200-300%/year) even on the rare occasion when a few shares are available for shorting. I feel a little itchy having nothing in my short book these days, but that’s OK — shorting is a task best left for extreme high conviction scenarios.

*****

And the folks at Wrap Technologies (WRTC) were practically peeing their pants with excitement that the LAPD’s Chief volunteered to get Bolawrapped at their press conference, that stock has been on a tear mostly because of the promise that getting a big city on board has for possible future orders — this is still just a small test, with 200 devices, and it will take some time to get enough officers trained that it’s actually visible in the field and might get used enough to get attention, but just the fact that the LAPD, the biggest police force in the country, is trying the device out has apparently spurred a bunch of incoming interest from other police departments. I’ll certainly be curious to see if LAPD decides this is going to become a core tool for their officers after this test period, because that would create a financial monster that could snowball, but it also might not happen (they might decide it’s not useful in the field, or that it’s not worth the cost or the belt space). Things are in an upswing after being in a downswing for a while, more reason to try to ignore this one and let the story play out.

Late in the week, Wrap also announced that some of their insiders have sold a small piece of the company to a private equity investor that’s affiliated with one of their international distributors… which probably doesn’t mean much, but if it incentivizes some international distributors to push the sales levers that’s perhaps a good thing. And not long after that, they also got some more firm orders from overseas, so things are looking pretty good as they try to scale up as a manufacturer and convince global police departments to adopt this new non-lethal restraint.

*****

And I shared this Trade Note on Wednesday, which most of you will have already seen:

Today I continued the process of gradually selling down my Office Properties Income Trust (OPI) position. This is not a surprise, I’ve just mostly been looking for mid-$30s opportunities to take profits in a company that I don’t have any interest in holding long term. Here’s what I noted about it when I started selling about six weeks ago, in case you missed that comment, my thinking has not changed at all:

(From Nov. 1) I was looking for 30%+ returns when I bought in the Spring, and we’ve just hit that point… so I’ll begin selling. They just reported, and their financial situation has improved a bit — they have plenty of cash flow to support their dividend, the occupancy rates have improved a little, and the property sales have made the income statement a bit confusing as they work to sell off assets and pay down debt (they also sold their RMR shares, which I think is a good thing), but it’s still a pretty weak company with an unexciting portfolio and substantial leverage. The potential for growth would be if they announce a meaningful dividend increase, which is possible next year, but I am not overly concerned about maximizing my return now that the shares of this not-great company have gone from “crazy undervalued” to just “reasonably cheap” — I’ll likely keep an eye on this and keep selling it off in pieces over the next several months, but we’ll see.

And I put a little bit of that cash to work in increasing my Modern Times Group (MTG-B in Sweden) position by about 20%. No big news on them this week, but here’s my updated thinking:

eSports company Modern Times Group is moving ahead with some more restructuring, last time they filed they were talking about reviewing their game publishing arm, this time it’s the core eSports business that is being impacted… though it’s fairly minor, it sounds like they’re essentially just centralizing their event production staff (for ESL and Dreamhack, I guess, their primary brand names) in Germany and Poland and cutting some production teams in France, Spain and maybe the UK. They’re not dropping events or local brands, just trying to become more efficient. Seems reasonable to me, though eSports is a pretty tight community so they’ll have to communicate their plans clearly and not risk turning people away from their market-leading brands in Europe.

The real potential here is still more international expansion and added events under their umbrella, helped a bit by the strategic investment by Chinese streaming company Huya as they work to integrate the Chinese eSports world into the ESL schedule and events. I do expect MTG to look into a US listing as part of their restructuring (they’ve said as much), and that ought to help with visibility… so although there’s not really any urgency, and this restructuring will take time and there may not be news for a while, as some more cash piled up in the account this week I took the opportunity to increase my MTG position. If you’re new to the stock, this one does not trade in the US, not even over the counter, so it has to be bought on the Stockholm exchange if you’re interested (I use Interactive Brokers for trading on non-US markets, but most major brokers can trade in major overseas markets — sometimes with a higher commission or a phone call)… and for what it’s worth, I still also like both EA and ATVI as long-term plays on both eSports and the next console upgrade wave next year and I do still nibble on both of those stocks from time to time.

I noticed today, interestingly enough, that OPI shares have gotten clobbered. That seems a bit overdone, and I still think I’ll have the opportunity to sell off the rest of my position in the mid-$30s in the next couple months, but you never know — that’s why I’m selling gradually, I have now sold about 60% of the position, some at $32.84 last month and some at $34.50 this week, and I think it’s possible that the stock could be into the high-$30s if they come out optimistic for the new year and raise the dividend… but, as we see today, it can also still fall to $30 or below, too. That’s why I’m selling gradually, just like I prefer to buy gradually, it gives you a better chance of a decent price overall — the stock did get a downgrade yesterday from an analyst (downgraded from overweight to underweight by Morgan Stanley), so that’s probably the reason for this latest 7% or so drop, we’ll see what happens with the shares in the next few weeks.

And that’s all I’ve got for you today, dear friends — please let me know if you’ve got thoughts on any of the above, or questions of any kind, with a comment below… have a wonderful weekend!

Disclaimer: Of the stocks mentioned above, I currently have long positions in the Real Money Portfolio[5] (derivatives and/or equity) in Innovative Industrial Properties, CoreSite, Crown Castle, Fairfax India, Akerna, Wrap Technologies, Modern Times Group, Office Properties Income Trust and Kennedy-Wilson. I will not trade in any covered stock for at last three days, per Stock Gumshoe’s trading rules.

Endnotes:
  1. Real Money Portfolio: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/personal-portfolio-irregulars-only/
  2. he posted his “Ideas for 2020” : https://www.woodlockhousefamilycapital.com/post/ideas-for-2020
  3. last time I covered one of those teasers for his Agora newsletter back in 2015: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews/capital-and-crisis/the-five-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-forever/
  4. [Image]: https://ycharts.com/companies/KW/chart/#/?annotations=&annualizedReturns=false&calcs=id:price,include:false,,id:total_return_price,include:true,,&chartType=interactive&colors=&correlations=&dateSelection=range&displayTicker=false&endDate=12/12/2019&format=indexed&legendOnChart=false&maxPoints=850&note=&partner=basic_850&quoteLegend=true&quotes=true&recessions=false&scaleType=linear&securities=id:KW,include:true,,id:HHC,include:true,,id:ROIC,include:true,,id:GLRE,include:true,,id:SPY,include:true,,&securityGroup=&securitylistName=&securitylistSecurityId=&source=false&splitType=single&startDate=03/19/2015&title=&units=false&useEstimates=false&zoom=custom
  5. Real Money Portfolio: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/personal-portfolio-irregulars-only/

Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2019/12/friday-file-dividends-keep-climbing/


What These Icons Mean