Top Teasers of the Year!

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, December 26, 2019

Every year we call out a “turkey” stock teaser around Thanksgiving time and poke a bit of fun at some terrible investment ideas…

… so it seems only fair to highlight a few winners as well, and this week, when we’re otherwise closed for the holiday, seems a good time to spread some cheer and celebrate some good stuff.

So what were the top teaser picks of 2019?

You can always check out the (semi-updated) teaser tracking spreadsheets to see what’s going on lately, but as of a couple days ago these were the winners at the top (the date links to our original article):

Date Company Ticker Newsletter Editor Percent Change Stock vs. S&P
1/16/2019 Ubiquiti Networks UI Five Star Trader Mark Skousen 81.68% 59.41%
5/23/2019 Skyworks Solutions SWKS Near Future Report, The Jeff Brown 73.05% 59.35%
9/19/2019 Maxar MAXR Global Energy Alert (from Oilprice.com) 56.37% 48.59%
6/20/2019 NVIDIA NVDA Near Future Report, The Jeff Brown 56.19% 46.83%
6/20/2019 Advanced Micro Device AMD Near Future Report, The Jeff Brown 56.01% 46.66%
6/25/2019 Antares Pharma ATRS Total Wealth Insider Jeff Yastine 54.22% 43.53%
6/10/2019 Skyworks Solutions SWKS Stock Advisor Canada Iain Butler 51.96% 40.67%
7/3/2019 Inseego INSG Automatic Fortunes Ian King 47.23% 39.50%
6/28/2019 Inseego INSG The Power Elite Jon Markman 46.03% 37.29%
6/20/2019 Taiwan Semiconductor TSM Near Future Report, The Jeff Brown 43.66% 34.30%

You can see some trends in there, no?  There are a couple duplicates that were teased by more than one newsletter… and most of those were picks made mid-year, and  are technology stocks. We do try to offset the timing issue by comparing the stock’s return to the S&P 500, and those are the top outperformers, but it also likely helped that a lot of those picks were in the volatile semiconductor sector and came in a doldrum time for the market (if a stock is volatile or has a “high beta,” as so many teaser stocks do, that means it rises more than the market when the market rises… and falls more than the market when the market falls).

And if you go to the tracking spreadsheets, you can also see that we’re pretty much on track with how teaser picks typically perform — usually about a third of them beat the broader market in any given year, and two thirds trail the market… we also usually have a few huge winners that gain 100% or more, and several that lose 90%+ or go bankrupt, and that’s about where we are today, though the winners have not been as big as in a typical year. That’s probably because the market leadership in 2019 has been so very narrow, almost all of the S&P’s extraordinary return this year came from just a few leading tech stocks, and nobody is teasing Apple (AAPL) as their top “secret stock.”

And which articles have been the most popular in 2019? Were they those winning teaser picks?

I’m afraid not… here are the most-read teaser solutions we posted in 2019, and usually that means these were some of the most aggressively marketed ideas (folks read the articles because they have questions… they have questions because they keep seeing the ads).

I’ve listed them with the day we first covered them — though many of these were re-touted and re-teased along the way, and some of these were first teased using similar ads before this year and might in a couple cases have done well since that original ad (the marketer’s creed: If you’ve found an ad that works, keep pushing it!)

Matt McCall’s Quantum Battery — (Ilika and others, 1/17/19)
Oxford Club’s Single Stock Retirement Plan (FoxConn, 7/16/18)
Motley Fool’s One Stock for the Coming Marijuana Boom (Shopify, 11/8/18)
“Federal Rent Checks” teased by D.R. Barton (Office Properties Income Trust, 3/14/19)
Dan Ferris’ “The Hands-Down No. 1 Pick of My Career” (Sprott, 6/26/19)
Alex Koyfman’s Perfect $1 Pot Stock (Crop Infrastructure, 1/8/18… also the Turkey of the Year)
Motley Fool’s “Betting “$523,059.77 on Tom’s Top Pick for 2019” (Arista Networks, 1/7/19)
Paul Mampilly’s “Tech Industry Set to Surge 76,000%” (Micron, 10/31/18)
Carr’s “America’s #1 Pot Stock” (MedMen, 3/26/19)
Jeff Brown’s “The 5G Device Every American Will Need” (Skyworks Solutions, 5/23/19)

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There is one overlap story in those two lists, as you might notice — that’s Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) being teased by Jeff Brown, an idea which has beaten the market by almost 50% since it first circulated in May (and is being re-promoted these days, I’ve seen the ad a lot in the past few weeks).  And in fact, this year Jeff Brown has more names in the top performers list than anyone else — at least in part because he had quite a few teaser pitches in the Spring and Summer when semiconductor stocks were a little low, and those have bounced back strong late in the year (and three of those stocks were teased in a single ad that I covered in late June).

Though did you notice, those winning picks from Brown were all from his Near Future Report? That’s the “entry level” tech newsletter that he writes and which is listed at $199 (but seems to usually be touted “on sale” at $99 or $49 or something similar). That letter serves as the entry into the marketing funnel that tries to get you to upgrade to his Exponential Tech Investor or other Bonner & Partners high-end letters.

Exponential Tech Investor is priced at $4,000 a year… for most of these publishers, particularly the ones in the Agoraplex, my impression is that the $50ish newsletters cover their costs, but their profit comes mostly from pushing those low-level subscribers to upgrade to the (usually nonrefundable) $500-$5,000 newsletters — the biggest hurdle is to get an investor to pay something for information, and once you’ve signed up to pay something, whether it’s $19 or $99 or whatever, then you immediately become the hottest prospect to whom they can pitch their $5,000 newsletter.

And though this is entirely anecdotal, I pretty routinely hear feedback from readers of all sorts of newsletters that it’s the “front end” newsletter that they really like, and they often regret committing to the “back end” version that costs so much more. People might love the Motley Fool Stock Advisor which they can usually get for something like $50 a year, but they’re grouchy about the high-priced portfolio services like Discovery: AI ($1,499) from that same publisher… they like Near Future Report but are disappointed by Exponential Tech Investor… they cheer for Paul Mampilly’s Profits Unlimited ($79/yr), but are unimpressed by his Extreme Fortunes ($5,000/yr). That’s not a fair generalization, I’m sure, and this is true for pretty much all publishers so I don’t mean to pick on those folks — it just reflects what I often hear from readers.

So yes, my friends, sometimes a teased pick works out… though it’s rare that the ones that work out are the ones that are the most heavily-touted, or the most popular.  That’s why we keep sniffing around, looking at these ideas, and hoping to find something interesting… though I admit that sometimes the terrible ideas are the most fun to cover.

Stock Gumshoe will be on hiatus for a few more days to celebrate the holidays, have a Happy New Year and we’ll be back to solve teasers and blather thoughtfully about stocks for you in 2020!

Disclosure: Of the stocks mentioned above, I have a position (either equity or call options) in Shopify, NVIDIA, Office Properties Income Trust, Arista Networks and Antares.  I will not trade in any covered stock for at least three days, per Stock Gumshoe’s trading rules.


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jim becker
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jim becker

Any ideas as to what Motley Fools new all in stock is?

Andrew G.
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Andrew G.

Not sure if it’s their “new” all-in stock, but they have been EXTREMELY high on The Trade Desk (TTD). I don’t remember their exact newsletters but I do remember reading that TTD was the first stock since Netflix in which both brothers had rated it as a strong buy for their respective newsletters.
I listen to quite a few of their podcasts and TTD still remains one of their highest regarded picks.

If their “new” pick isn’t TTD, I’m very interested in hearing what it is.

Leslie A. Margolies, Esq
Guest

I love your articles and share your passion for providing consumers with accurate information. I do the same in a different realm (i.e. landlord tenant law) so I feel that I understand what drives you. So much malarkey out there that I feel compelled to set the record straight before a consumer puts themselves in a precarious legal situation. Happy and Healthy Holidays to you!

Bill
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Bill

Thanks Travis…..All the Best to You and Yours this holiday season

Ben
Guest
Ben

I did buy SWKS based on your recommendations, so thanks 😉

hanksterrr
Irregular
👍12

SWKS is up 31 pts in the last month.
I expect a pullback and then would get in.

Bobby Hahn
Guest
Bobby Hahn

Happy NEW YEAR, TRAVIS!

John Bostick
Guest
John Bostick

Anyone know what this “Holy Grail of Medicine ” is all about? Being touted that even Bill Gates has invested millions into this company that focuses on being able to treat 4000 – 6000 genetic diseases?

Lee
Guest
Lee

Edit

grizz151
Member
👍8
grizz151

John Boston’s,,, It’s CRISPR technology, that’s supposed to cure inherited blindness.

Lee
Guest
Lee

Edit not crispr

Joe Cassandra
Guest
Joe Cassandra

Great round-up of the year, Travis.

I’m a copywriter who writes promotions like the ones you mentioned above (one of mine is in your ‘top’ performing above).

I agree that most of the editor’s “BEST” performing picks usually aren’t the marketed ones. The marketed ones are typically the stocks with the best stories. The best-performing ones don’t usually have promotions written about them 🙂 unless they have a great story attached. Unfortunately, excitement sells subscriptions better than profit projections.

Happy New Year!

Daniel
Guest
Daniel

Happy new year! Any one investing in autonomous shipping long term? Kongsberg from Norway seems interesting. Travis you cover any shipping stocks going autonomous…or have any information on what the companies leading that charge. Would appreciate any ideas of where to start that research. Seems like it would beat cars with less downsides like running people over. Thanks for your help and insight into this area…

erug
Member
👍16
erug

Just a reminder, Ubiquiti Networks trades under new symbol of UI Verses UBNT on the NYSE

Travis I want to express gratitude for your service. Information helps the littlest of investors, that means with no ability to purchase extensive equities in volume, to cut through the Russian Roulette on the web.. Hopefully one bright sunny day I can say thanks a Million and here is a check.

Eric Rug

Pascal
Member
👍171
Pascal

AXSM was by far the best stock of 2019.

backoffice
Member
👍335

The killer for me is I received an e-mail from Jeff Brown stating that a stock was going into phase 1 trials the following morning and to get the info I would need to join one of his services for 2,000.00. I decided to pass on it. The next day came and there was no announcement. I should have noted that the night before I also received an e-mail asking to call them ,so they could pitch it again. I didn’t call and as far as I’m concerned I saved $2,000.00