Annual Review Part One

Kicking off the Real Money Portfolio annual review with a few new buys, plus looks at MTG-B, ALS.TO, IIPR, MPW, SPCE, WRTC, IQ, NVDA, KEYS and more

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, January 24, 2020


Today I’m starting my Annual Review, during which I take a (hopefully fresh-eyed) look at every stock in my Real Money Portfolio and update my opinion for you (and, frankly, for me, since it’s a good exercise). Some of these stocks pop up in my writing practically every week, but for others where there might not have been a lot of change or a lot of news I might have mentioned them only once or twice in the past year… so this way I get at least one serious update on my positions at least once a year.

I re-posted and updated my piece about Louis Navellier’s tease of NVIDIA (NVDA) and Keysight (KEYS) earlier today, so I’ll start with those updated thoughts to get us going. And I added a couple positions to the portfolio today, so we’ll close out with those (just to make sure you’re still paying attention :)). Once I’ve covered every stock in the portfolio, I’ll post the full list separately in alphabetical order… so don’t worry if you miss a couple.

Nvidia (NVDA) 1.3% position, average cost $140/share and likely to be a long-term hold. Reasonable to nibble here, but I’d look for a meaningful dip to ~$225 or so before adding, personally.

I like NVIDIA’s position as the leading operating system and chipmaker for artificial intelligence projects, but they do face competition from both AMD and Intel and the valuation is rich again after the sharp recovery since August. I can justify holding the shares at $250 given the likely growth (that’s 35X forward earnings, and nearly 25% earnings growth expected), but it will presumably remain a volatile story so I’d prefer to add ~10~ lower if there’s any weakness in the next few months or headed into or out of earnings (earnings announcement should be February 14).

The stock has had a huge recovery since the drop in the first half of 2019, which was caused primarily by their surprisingly (even to them) high reliance on cryptocurrency miners for sales of their high-end GPUs… which created a massive inventory problem when that business disappeared almost overnight thanks to the crash in bitcoin.

Now, with the recovery back to those mid-2018 levels, the stock is again pretty expensive… but also justifiable if you’re confident in the fact that they’ve established a strong presence in artificial intelligence ...

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