written by reader Warren Buffett’s Favorite Stock Market Indicator hits record High.

By mitchdm, April 30, 2020


So this is and has been in the cards in my book for awhile. Pandemic or not. I’m an optimist but pulled out when the Pandemic started in China and Jumped back in for some gains after March 24 or so. Any thoughts or insight on the article would be appreciated. I felt that a day of reckoning is coming when GDP is expected to contract this year for obvious reasons So far a very Positive year for my portfolio, just would like to keep the momentum going in a positive direction. Thanks for any thoughts. 🙂

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May 2, 2020 5:28 pm

First I am a little ‘jealous’ I did not get out in when you did :).

I wish someone could tell me: (mild-severe) Inflation or Deflation, stays calm.
And stock market boom or crash 🙂

It seems to all depend on who you listen to, and which points that focus on.
– Personal, business, and government debt, lack of income/GDP
– HUGE government spending (and uneven distribution)
* give money to those that do not plan well or do not pay taxes.
* But since the Gov is closing it down (versus counter measures), I guess they should pay.
(And not charge taxes, etc until they re-open)
– We will have to pay fo all of this somehow, cutting spending or raise taxes?
* Perhaps they will abolish the Ponzi scheme (Social security)

But his statement alone could cause large selling 🙂

So my guess is cash and/or gold are the safest?
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities from the U.S. Treasury
Precious metals (or gold mining stocks?)
(I am not sure about foreign currency is much safer or ?cryptocurrency? at least that is a international currency).

There are also ‘bear market funds’ (AGAIN I DO NOT KNOW ANYTHING), I am just reading:
And they did well 20+% in the 2018 down turn, there expenses also.
Rydex Inverse Nasdaq-100 (RYAIX)
Grizzly Short (GRZZX)
Rydex Inverse S&P 500 Strategy (RYURX)
ProFunds Short NASDAQ-100 Fund (SOPIX)
ProShares Short QQQ (PSQ)
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X (SPDN)
ProShares Short S&P 500 (SH)
(I found another list at: https://mutualfunds.com/categories/all-funds/strategy-funds/bear-market-strategy-funds)

Again I do not know what is best for any of these, or know which way this will go.
I just know actions have consequences, eventually. And it seems Warren Buffett is thinking it will be sooner than I thought. I was thinking the fall would be after the elections (and until then it would be held/propped up at all costs).

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