Friday File: Real World Research, M&A, Beat and Raise Quarters, and Reader Questions
by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | August 28, 2020 5:06 pm
A hodgepodge for you today, including one new buy as well as updates on RPRX, ROKU, SFIX, TDOC, OKTA, GAN, CCI, SPLK, FSLY and more...
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2020/08/friday-file-real-world-research-ma-beat-and-raise-quarters-and-reader-questions/
Thanks again Travis! Always enlightening! Would like to get your take on $RKT, which has got a lot of buzz recently.
Also I am really curious if any irregulars here have ever used the service of TDOC and what their experiences are like.
Thanks and have a nice weekend!
I got 400 shares on rkt and i would ilso like to see Travis input on RKT
Haven’t really looked at Rocket — maybe I’ll have a chance after they report next week.
My doctor used it recently for my appointment just to renew my regular medication, it was simple and straight forward. I surprised when I attended the tele appointment, it was TDOC app. I was expecting a regular video call, but I believe it is not allowed due to regulation or some sort of medical practice regulations. Anyway it is interesting to see how may doctors and patients would it interested continue to uses tele appointments post COVID. But it certain that tele medicine(medication via post/online) will continue to grow. Travis, what is your take on just tele medicine any specific company under your radar?
Thanks Travis. On your last point just curious to what Warren buffett did buy in the 80’s? did he concentrate on the consumer staples sector for example or did he get preferential deals on struggling companies? If its the latter i presume you would be better of just buying Berkshire shares to get exposure to the terms only he can get.
Thanks Travis. I bought a small position in RPRX at $42 this week but in light of what you say I will probably wait until November before adding more. I will monitor carefully. Seems an interesting company and model. I hope GAN comes good having got in quite late.
Thanks Travis. Would you like to comment what are your thoughts about AMLP that prompted you to buy this ETF?
Just a relatively safe and still fairly contrarian play that oil and gas prices will stay in a rational area, and that US production will recover. Sort of an ancillary bet on oil prices, with an income kicker that’s likely to remain attractive to investors.
Very informative and enlightening, Travis!
Just out of curiosity, how long does it take you to write a Friday File? Do you start on Monday? They just keep going and going like the Energizer Bunny. And I mean that as a huge compliment. And I would never call it blather. It’s a treasure trove of helpful, insightful information! Keep up the great work, Travis!
As for KEYS, I thought you might find this interesting since you sleuthed out how KEYS was the teased King of the 5G Turbo Button for Navellier’s Growth Investor service/newsletter until the end of May when it changed to being KLAC.
Navellier recommended selling KEYS to his Growth Investor subscribers at the end of July/last month due to lowered earnings and declining sales forecasts for the third quarter.
I’m sure once the outlook for KEYS starts to improve Navellier will make it his King of the 5G Turbo Button again. And he does re-recommend stocks that he previously recommended selling. For instance, yesterday Navellier re-recommended DPZ which he’s bought and sold in the Growth Investor portfolio several times over the years. Perhaps that means we’ll soon see big teases from Navellier about the King of 5G Pizza Delivery.
Maybe so! I do collect thoughts and write little snippets for the Friday File throughout the week, but it usually takes me most of the day on Friday to finish it up.
Yep, I figured it took you some time to put all of that together, given the amount of detail you put into all of your posts/articles. We are all the beneficiaries of your hard work!
And I totally love your business model here: Put out so much helpful information and insights that only paying subscribers get the Cliffs notes version or the Quick Take summary at the top of each of your articles. Absolutely brilliant!
The pre IPO for AirBNB is being teased by several different firms. I’m unaquainted with pre ipo, how does this work?
Usually it means buying stock in a company or fund that owns a chunk of the “about to IPO” company. Haven’t looked up who that might be for airbnb recently.
Hi Travis, I recently subscribed to your service, it is enlightening your readings, and your writings motivates me to learn more, and in a way motiving me to give back to community the way you are providing services in my field, keep up doing. Question, I haven’t seen any coverage on EV area, surprising no one teasing in this area(not sure if I missed any old articles), what’s your take on Tesla, NIO, Nikola etc?
I have been hedging for the last few years and I go through similar thought exercises.
I remember when Greenspan made his “irrational exuberance” comments in 1996, the market kept running for another 4 years and doubled before crashing. So, therefore, I take the same approach as Travis and it let my holdings run while protecting against a more than 15 % downside via options. Does it cost me money? Absolutely, but I am better of than my buddies who went to cash in March//April and are now waiting to get back in. Also, these options are short term capital losses , therefore effectively 39.5 % are used to offset short term cap gains.
The way I look at it is as follows, a financial advisor would cost me give or take 1% per year, but even the best advisor can not guarantee me against a loss, so I pay about 2 to 3 % per year but I sleep well and I get the upside . Also I tend to buy long-dated puts ( now I am buying qqq March 21) and I sell weekly calls that are way out of the money, where I am trying to pick up 25 cents. For example, the qqq is now at $292 , I bought the March 21, 250 puts for around 13 dollars, I have about 7 months to makes 1 dollar per month of call revenue so my effective cost is 6 dollars or 2 % of my principal for 7 months , so 1 % extra vs an advisor.
Thank U Travis (and wimvlb) for a meta- level discussion on things to think about when using options. This is EXACTLY what i was trying to ask for several months ago, though i don’t think i used the right question format.
Thanks for the Friday update, Travis!
Has the Thinkolator tackled the Obesity Drug (by David Lashnet)?
Yep, got to that earlier in the week — https://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews/stansberry-venture/whats-the-20x-weight-loss-drug-looking-into-lashmets-new-teaser-pitch-for-stansberry-venture-technology/
Thanks Travis!! I’ve been fairly “distracted” for a week or so due to this Hurricane Laura. drama.
Hope you’re well and dry!
Any thoughts or interests in the string of IPOs that are launching next week?
I often look at fairly new companies, but am very hesitant to buy during the IPO enthusiasm. That means I’ve missed some crazy runs, for sure, but other than this crazy period it’s generally been wiser to wait for excitement to die down.
I see folks gushing about SNOW online!
Is BRO still a buy at current price point? I joined the paid irregular membership just today.
I wouldn’t object to buying a small piece, but it’s never likely to be a crazy growth stock so patience will probably be rewarded – odds are very good that it will fall a few dollars at some point. I buy this one gradually, last picked some up in the $45s.
Trade Note:
With the shares soaring by 25% or so following the Zoom Video (ZM) earnings report, as folks seek out the next possible explosive earnings gainer, I sold another 15% of my DocuSign (DOCU) position this morning.
I still like the company, and still hold the majority of my original position, but this is now the second time I’ve taken a partial profit of roughly similar size (the first was a 10% sale in late May, and the stock has doubled since then). At 50X trailing revenues, DocuSign trades almost as aggressively as Zoom or Shopify, so they’re certainly leading the popularity contest — and there’s reason to be optimistic that they will become the de facto standard of contract management and esignatures in the years ahead, but it’s also quite possible that we’re already assuming that glorious a future (and more) at this valuation. That doesn’t mean the stock can’t double again in time, or surge dramatically higher if their earnings call is well-received, even that wouldn’t make them the nuttiest stock in the market… but risk is certainly elevated here.
I’ll add some additional thoughts on DocuSign on Friday, they report after the market close tomorrow so it might be a volatile couple of days. This takes my cost basis down to almost nothing, which makes it easier (emotionally, at least) to ride that volatility.
And I don’t generally post a Trade Note with small options moves, but since I’m posting this anyway I’ll let you know that I also sold half of my Ansys (ANSS) call options, just as a profit protection move — I generally sell a portion of call option positions once they’ve gotten to the point that a partial sale (half or less) can leave me with a guaranteed profit for the entire position, and then leave the rest of the position in place to see if much larger gains are possible.
I have a question on the tradestops stop losses that you use.
As i understand it is a volatility algorithm that rises with the stock price but some stops (docusign for example) don’t seem to update in the portfolio for quite a while despite quite large changes in the share price (docusign has been at $162 for over a month but the stock has risen considerably). When do they change? Is it different for each stock?
I use TradeStops as a rough guide, but for many of the momentum stocks I’ve tightened up those stops in recent months. DOCU’s stop recommended by TradeStops will
be around $165 now, after the huge jump in price, but last week it would have been in the $130s.
I use stop loss prices as a guideline for when to reassess a position, not always as a strict sell trigger.
I update those stop loss prices in the portfolio most weeks, but like the rest of the portfolio they are not “live”, I generally post the portfolio update with updated numbers only once a week.
Are there folks that use PTON bikes? Really curious what the experience has been like. And also once the covid-19 episode is over, would you ever go back to a real fitness center? Or the bike is a long term keeper?
I think the quick expansion of their client base is impressive. They can potentially do a lot of interesting things with the base. But on the other hand, I am also a bit concerned that one day (maybe soon enough) some tech juggernaut like FB or AMZN or GOOG decides to get in this game… Thanks!