by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | August 21, 2020 5:25 pm
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Sea Ltd. (SE) is my biggest position and I expect it will be continue to be so for the next 10 years.
My friend and her sister both used Stitch fix before. She said they liked it. With covid changing the way many companies doing business, i. e, working at home more,
I personally don’t know how many people will buy clothes.
Agree with you on GAN. It is a loss losing part of the Fan revenue and they are sneaky in announcing good news first before the quarterly results. This could be an opportunity to add for long term. I put in a limited buy at 18.5.
Have a great weekend Travis.
I owned Stitch Fit stock and bought their clothing a couple of years ago. I ended up selling the stock and I quit buying the clothing because it wasn’t age appropriate. It is geared more to the younger generation. My daughter, however, has been buying their clothing since the beginning and loves the fact she doesn’t have to shop. Stitch Fit has also added children’s clothing. My granddaughter now has an account and loves getting new things every month.
Hello Travis, amazing read. I love that we got into SE at about the same time even though I only read your thoughts on it after the fact, just stumbled upon the stock myself, so there’s some boost of confidence for my novice head. Also bullish on online gaming and sports betting with a 3% position on GAN. Thank you for the write up on that one, really cleared the air for me as I missed that they lost FanDuel (at least partly). Would love to hear your thoughts on KEYS and why it was beaten down. Could it be a good time to get some shares?
Also, I don’t know if you use Discord, but plenty of traders and young “gurus” have a channel there where they build a community of like minded individuals and share their thoughts. It is a faster interface, so they can actually let their followers know in real time when they are buying/selling a position, and the members have an easy time sharing knowledge and thoughts, among other things. It’s pretty amazing really, I am a part of one of these communities myself. I don’t know if you would like to run one of these or if it suites you personally, but you could charge monthly for the priviledge! I’d be glad to join, maybe that way I wouldn’t have panic sold my OLED shares, I’m pretty sure you bought them from me haha!
Just a thought.
Have a great weekend!
Discord is really great as a product and catching up fast with the young and innovative (my sons are both into gaming and into discord), I hope they’ll become public. Good idea with a discord channel for the irregulars btw
Great write up man, thank you so much. I have been looking at Stitch Fix a lot lately and plan to jump in very soon….the GAN play is super intriguing to me, I’m inclined to purchase some of that as well.
Travis, thanks for the continuous updates. Cisco was destined to fail as life moves more and more to the cloud. With about 20% global adoption of cloud I find myself leaning toward tech that has cost optimization strategies. Cloud companies like AWS and Microsoft will ultimately each own half the market. companies like Oracle and Google aren’t making enough headway and will likely fall to waist side in years to come. I recognize their multipliers at times seem unrealistic, but I believe we will see substantial growth over the next 7 years. their subscription model makes this unlike Ciscos issues.
Perhaps, but Cisco was definitely not obviously “destined to fail” according to popular thought in 2000, it was as bulletproof to investors then as Amazon is today.
Hello Travis, SFIX referral link doesn’t work…
Thanks for letting me know, I tried to fix it above. Looks like they now offer $25 to each of us if you’d like to try it out — should be able to get that by clicking here.
Oops! no SFIX in Canada. Looks like SFIX doesn’t need my business.lol! Thanks Travis.
The cloud is also made of hardware and software, parts of it made by Cisco, isn’t it? Also, using more the cloud means increased traffic hence the need for more and better networking equipment
Thanks for your insights on these companies Travis ! I added SFIX when Tom Gardner recommended first in SA and still at a loss. I guess I should add to my position.
Off late I have been following the Electric Vehicle segment and AR space a lot. Would love to hear your views on NIO and NEXCF.
I’d also like to hear whatever views you have on NEXCF. Canadian AR company. Saw their conference call the other day, and I really think the platform is really well organized and designed. Curious at what you see in them and their potential moving forward.
Never heard of that one, but I’ll try to take a look. Not much revenue, is their product brand new?
They have a few offerings, all somewhat new. SaaS software, Videoconferencing and AR. From my research and looking at them for a while, they started generating revenue in 2019, $6 mil. Their 2020 estimate is $20-25 mil. 2021 is $50 mil+?? They signed quite a few big deals with their Videoconferencing product recently, and it looks like their scaling up. Could this be a good early find at this price?
Roku on the TCL television platform is far and away the easiest way to manage our viewing we have ever had. We only have THREE remotes now, instead of the mind-blowing six or more we had for years. Now one remote is for the cable, which I expect we will never be able to get rid of, one control is the Blu-Ray DVD player and the Roku remote is for everything else. The Roku remote is truly easy and intuitive to use, unlike the many “easy and intuitive” remotes I have suffered with over the years.
Even connecting a computer to our setup to play cute cat videos on You Tube is easy. There’s everything like about Roku and TCL. The price is terrific too. But I admit that I am puzzled how Roku makes much money off the set up. It’s a one time purchase of the TV and I see almost no ads.
They break even on the set, more or less, but then make money by processing orders for streaming services, showing ads on their own channel(s) or ad share on other ad-supported channels (Hulu, CBS, etc). It’s not a lot, about $25/yr per user or something in that neighborhood — but with 40+ million users it adds up. Thanks for the feedback!
Now I’m confused about CCI prices!
I, too, have had a seemingly identical limit order in for the last few weeks: buy at $160. But mine did NOT execute on Thursday. At first i wondered if it was because of some different exact class of shares? Mine is specifically “CCI CROWN CASTLE INTL CORP NEW COM.”
But now i’m guessing it was a volume thing. Looking at [Historical Quotes], it looks like that price existed during only ONE 5-minute block of time (with a volume of 74,415).
Does it seem reasonable that limit orders (or ALL orders) are processed in whatever order they’re processed, and before my turn came up, the price had already moved?
Through the act of writing this, i think i have figured it out on my own. Yay!
I was surprised by that as well. My limit order was actually at $161 and it filled at $160, which was presumably just luck or some particular trading skill by a broker at Fidelity that I just got to tag along with. I’ll take it, but I don’t know why I got it.
And for what it’s worth, it’s below $160 today 🙂
The order filled, this time!
Hi Travis, great read as always! You have talked about SE, and I wish I had jumped in after reading your piece a few weeks back! It never got down to the level I was hoping for. Oh well… Talking about games, I wonder if you have any thoughts about major gaming companies, like ATVI, EA, and TTWO. Covid-99 really helped boost these companies. But I am not sure if it is still worthwhile to invest with their valuation so high today! Or maybe you have a different angle playing this game?! Thanks! Hua
I think those are still in a strong cycle — gaming is growing ever more important globally, and the big publishers are a little more diversified than the smaller hitmakers. I still own and like both ATVI and EA in particular, immersive video games are both the most important kind of entertainment for many people and enable some of the games that create community during lockdown.
The original reason for buying these was that we’re just about to enter a new console upgrade cycle, with both the new Xbox and new Playstation being released before the holidays this year, and that promise is still there. The stocks are not cheap any more, but they shouldn’t be cheap. I have a slight preference for ATVI, mostly just because their biggest games are a little cheaper (no big licensing fees for Call of Duty or World of Warcraft like EA has for its NFL and FIFA games or Star Wars), but I think they’re both well-positioned. TTWO is a little bit more driven by one or two specific titles, which makes it more volatile, sometimes with meaningful lags in the share price when there’s nothing new being realeased, and I’ve never owned it.
Thanks Travis as always! You talked about ATVI more than 10 years ago! If any regulars had bought it and stayed with it….
Great report Travis. I thoroughly enjoyed, end to end. Welcome on board the wagon of GSHD Insurance, the wagon you put me on in early 2019. Thank you so much. I just reviewed the multiple option positions I took in the company and their with 16 positions through mid year. Best position was the first set which was a Nine timer from late April to Mid May 2019. It is hard to get off that wagon . Thank you so much for your early report on it and good luck with your ride. There will be hiccups but I am convinced there is more good results in the wind.
Maybe I marked the top for it here, if the past few days are any indication 🙂
Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD) President and COO Michael C. Colby Sold $1.9 million of Shares. Also, some other Director heavy sell as well. Is it matters?
It’s one of the hiccups…..when it changes directions it sometimes is in chunks. I bought a put for this correction on the 31st of July, and was a little early but looking better now. It was a large move up (40 points) from April to end of July and I thought it was done and didn’t want to be bitten by one of it’s quickie corrections… so I changed to Put side and instead got another 20 bucks to upside…so it has 60 points of upside to correct for now….the next move should be down to mid 80’s which will also be in area of 50 day moving average to be tested. What it does after that will tell whether the correction is over or if it’s going up again. The next earnings date is end of October so it should/could be a good run after this correction. But if you hit the top that would mean I’m in good shape…not to worry, that is not likely. Good luck.
I bit on GAN this morning on the PUT side hoping to build a little helper to get in on long side after it’s correction. Their announcement of losing chunk of forward revenue was as bad as INSG having good earnings report and then announcing new CFO minutes before the market opened the next business day….that seemed to be a killer at least to my positions.
I’ll be darned……on my way out of here after “joining” I fell right into the above response on GSHD where at the end I touched on GAN Put entry. Above also mentions I was essentially doing same thing on GSHD at time. And today I was following that one toward closure today as well. Not as profitably as the GAN, but it is close to a possible correction point somewhere near the 75 area. It may get there this week and I will jump to the calls if it does. NOW< how did I find this by accident versus all the searching I tried. My guess is the “joining step??’
FWIW: I see Bill Gurley of Benchmark Partners is on the board of SFIX. Bill, way back in 1996, was the PC analyst at Morgan Stanley before the entire Frank Quattrone team moved to DeutscheBank Morgan Grenfell. He was done being a sell side analyst, but they asked him to stick around long enough to be the analyst for the IPO of Amazon (led by DBMG). Soon after he went to Benchmark. I am not saying he was a genius visionary, but he did understand the platform Amazon was building, and perhaps he also understands the way SFIX can be successful. His involvement is probably a good thing for the company.
side note re CSCO – one of the things that was going on in 1998-2000 was the window for anyone with an internet-related idea to IPO. CSCO supplied a lot of equipment to these new entities, but lent them the money, later dubbed “vendor financing” as a questionable business practice. So when the bubble burst, some of their backlog went “poof!”. Nobody questioned CSCO’s numbers until the veil was lifted. A good lesson was learned.
Thanks… yes, Gurley’s Benchmark was one of the few VC Firms that backed Stitch Fix early and really bought into the vision. He has also done some meaningful insider buying in SFIX for his personal account over the past year, particularly last October and during the Spring collapse this year, in addition to Benchmark’s large (10%+) Stitch Fix ownership. That’s pretty impressive, given the lack of other insider buying at SFIX — as far as I can tell, Gurley is the only insider who ponied up and bought heavily in March, when the stock was down around $13.
Among other luminaries, such as they are, Bill Miller’s funds have been big SFIX holders almost since the IPO. In most of Miller’s funds, Farfetch and Amazon are the two largest holdings.
OMG! Why did you have to mention and remind me about UBX? That is just so mean. And I’m new here!
UBX was recommended by one of those stock newsletters I subscribe to. Of course, once the recommendation is made, every other subscriber immediately buys it causing the stock to surge above the suggested buy-below-price. So I set a limit order to buy at $8.00 a share when it hopefully pulled back.
But then some hotshot analyst initiated coverage on UBX and gave it a price target of $35.00 which caused the stock to skyrocket above $15 in intraday trading before coming back down to earth a bit to close in the $10 range. Then it went up from there in subsequent trading days to close above $12 on the Friday right before the Great Decimation of this stock.
The following Monday morning, the day of UBX’s cataclysmic collapse, I slept in. When I woke up and checked my brokerage account, I discovered that not only did I buy UBX at $8.00 a share due to the limit order I previously made that I thought had no chance of hitting, but that I had also already lost over 50% because it was then trading below $4.00 share! And it went even lower from there. Oh how I wish I would’ve only bought one share.
So I give up! I’ve only invested in 3 stocks in my life: ENRN, LK, and now UBX. I guess it’s only fitting that I try my luck with HTZ next.
Please tell me what stock you buy next 🙂
You got it, Travis! I’m going for broke with AIMT. Hopefully, I’ll be left with at least a few peanuts this time.
Sometimes, you just get lucky:
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/aimmune-therapeutics-nestle-peanut-allergy-acquisition
Good call on Churchill Downs as GAN’s new Tier 1 client!
Was SE mentioned a while back in the free version back in March? If so, too bad I missed the ride. I got in only when motley fool released an article on them but at that time the stock price was in $150
I first mentioned it when I bought it on May 13, while researching eSports for a teaser pitch — looks like I had the wrong date listed on the portfolio, so sorry if that confused anyone (the price was accurate, I bought around $61, not in the $30s where it was in March, but the date was a typo).
Travis, any idea what cause GAN to drop 9.5% yesterday? Maybe this could be an opportunity to enter?
I doubled up on GAN yesterday when it was 5% down, it closed 10% down. I’m not very good at this. Travis you have a stop loss in GAN at 17$ in your portfolio, are you going to sell if they hit that?
I’ll re-analyze if it hits that. My current thinking is that I’m unlikely to sell the entire position.
looks like, from the technical perspective, it is filling a gap just under $17
Symbol Quantity Opening Transaction Date Opening Transaction Price $ Opening Transaction Net Amount $ Closing Transaction Type Closing Transaction Date Closing Transaction Price $ Closing Transaction Net Amount $
GAN Oct 16 20 $1750 Put 5 08/24/2020 1.37 687.57 S 09/16/2020 2.13 1,062.40 I closed this Put position today and converted proceeds to Calls in GAN. I couldn’t find the thread where I posted about finally entering GAN except that I did so on the short side as I felt that technically it was entering a correction period IMHO at that time. From the transaction above my post was probably in the August 24th timeframe. My target area was 16.5 and when it was nearing touching that today I pulled the trigger. Above was half the position so the call position which is in April 16 of 2021 $20 Calls. So I guess my position says methinks the correction is over here and or near here and going to head back to the upside. IF ANYONE knows how to search these files to find an older post as I was trying to do, please advise me. Chuck H
Not offhand. It got to be a day-trading favorite so volatility is certainly higher than it was six months ago.
I already. Posted above on GAN aGAiN and forgot to “join thread”.