by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | October 30, 2020 5:38 pm
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Hi Travis,
I enjoyed reading your Friday File as always. You wrote briefly about Amwell when reviewing Teladoc. Are you considering an investment in Amwell in the future?
Happy Halloween!
Esther
Not actively.
Good review of the Teladoc earnings on SA. Mirror many of your thoughts
Hi Travis, thank you for the wonderful and detailed walkthrough.
I have been hemming and hawing, thinking about the ideal stocks to consider in the event of a Trump vs. Biden 2020 win, but can’t really finalize anything at the moment. I should have skimmed some of my gains before the crazy Friday dip but greed, of course, only appears unwise when things slip away. Not the time to panic sell, but considering paring my positions on Monday. Uncertain whether this is a dip or the start of a serious crash.
We’ll never be certain, and even if there is a crash the odds of selling during the fall and buying back in near the bottom are very low. When in doubt, make small decisions — they’re easier, and they will have a less detrimental effect on your portfolio over time. The only thing we know for sure is that on average, most people do better in the market by acting less often… it’s fun to imagine that we’re not “most people” and try to beat the market, and that is a worthwhile endeavor if you’re seeking a hobby (especially if you diversify some of your portfolio away from your trading decisions in case you’re wrong), but the biggest lag on performance is between our ears.
I was intrigued by your Goosehead write up about a month ago. I bought some stock which after today’s increase is up 33% ; not a bad result. I was also in the market for insurance for my condo in Nashville (we purchased as an investment 9 years ago and it’s almost doubled in value) so went to Goosehead web, typed in my details and was promptly contacted by a local agent. Turning his quote into a policy was quite easy. They have the processes and systems humming along nicely. I let the agent know I was also an investor and had a great conversation about his experience as a brand new Goosehead agency. He followed up with the following email comments a day after our talk.
“One matter of differentiation from Brown & Brown… our growth is nearly 100% organic. We’re developing relationships with clients while B&B is by acquisition. I probably with 10 B&B clients a year who signed up with one agent 5 years ago who sold the book and isn’t around anymore. They have no connection or loyalty to Brown & Brown.
We’ll see. It is the best model I’ve seen and that’s with the 50% share of renewal revenue. My perspective on that is that I don’t have to worry about my staff that calls in sick or needs to be coached or who has a sick kid. Goosehead does a better job of that then I’d ever do. Happy to share 50% of the renewals to not have that burden when I’m selling 2x more than my normal pace.”
After today’s big bump up in stock price, I’ll wait a little while before I buy some more but I will definitely keep adding this interesting company to my portfolio. I enjoy being their customer and watching as they actually are putting their ideas into reality. Thanks again for the suggestion. Another reason why it’s always worth reading your weekly updates.
Excellent feedback, thanks for sharing your experience!
Hi Travis I look forward to your friday file every week . You are doing some 5 wonderful work, regarding Trump vs Biden and stocks that might benefit , would you consider brookfield renewal partners (bep) as a strong benefactor it has a market value of about 10 Billion and a yield over 3 %
Haven’t looked at the details on that one, though I’m surprised the yield is that low. I do own Papa Brookfield, which also just triggered a stop loss alert.
one question that comes to mind thinking about the telemedicine space — is this an industry that lends itself to “scale”? Each telemedicine event is discrete. If Amwell markets themselves, and provides competitive economics to potential customers, other than name recognition (vs TDOC), are they really at any disadvantage? It’s not like TDOC gets some special discount from their video service provider that such that Amwell’s COGS puts them behind the eightball. Why would a doctor want to get his check from TDOC vs Amwell? Would TDOC attract better video doctors because of brand recognition? Or am I not thinking about this correctly.
A lot of it is not yet known… Teladoc provides software for hospital-branded services, provides an actual network of doctors for both cash patients and large customers, and now, with Livongo, manages a huge amount of data about disease management and helps nudge customers. The biggest deal in the past has been insurance coverage.
I think we’ll find that scale and network effect becomes a huge advantage, both in recruiting doctors and patients, as has been the case with other tech “disrupters”, but we’ll see. Certainly not proven yet, and there’s some risk that we extrapolate the one-time pandemic year into the future and overestimate.
New investor here, surprised to see you exit from Apple. Jim Cramer has been doubling down all week saying to never sell Apple. I also noticed in addition to you, Cathy Woods from ARK unloaded a lot of shares of Apple on Friday. Now I’m starting to rethink my position. Do you put any stock into major network investors, or are they trying to keep the stocks afloat that they recommend? Also noticed you mentioned slow growth on China. Do you think this is because of a growing interest in Huawei over Apple?
Apple is hurting in China in part because of price and rising quality of competitors, and in part because of nationalist preference, I imagine.
No, I don’t think chatter and pumping has a real impact on huge stocks, except perhaps as a tide shifts from love to hate (as with Intel this year). Apple is the largest and most widely-owned company in the world.
I was a little surprised that I ended up selling it, too, but if I’m going to pay 35x earnings I want to see more growth. Perhaps it’s just because I recall buying Apple at 10x earnings when their growth potential seemed much more dramatic.
Wow TY Travis and nymets31. I’m holding my Apple, the opposite of Trav, I’m still regretting not holding back in early 2005!! I was in for the 4to1 split recently. And really.. where’s the growth? It’s getting like Han Hi, which I threw some change at a few years back. So Mr Gumshoe I also TY for the TTD and Shop.
Hi Travis. I’m an irregular from Italy for a couple of months ….. great job …. really great analysis …. thanks. fabio.
President Biden!!! You wish
You don’t think the polling predictions are accurate? Playing the probabilities is the nature of investing.
Travis,
Great recommendations. I was contemplating Tesla stock. How do you feel about it & other Electric Vehicle stocks. Is China backing a home brand? Is there a competitor or sub-contractor you like?
Haven’t found an electric vehicle stock that I want to own yet, and I have been truly shocked at Tesla’s stock market success.
How about NIO then? The graphics are spectacular.