by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | November 6, 2020 5:04 pm
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Thank you Travis and TTD is the reason I became a member. After the 27% jump today, I decided to sell and look for another entry or another opportunity to invest.
Quite a ride, eh? I hope your future decisions are so lucrative, it’s nice to get a big win in an uncertain world.
I had been following the free newletter since last few days. Now I’ve become an irregular member, wondering if we get alerts for sale/buy to emails?
I send out a Trade Note email whenever I buy or sell an equity position that’s larger than ~0.1% of the portfolio. Everything else is typically updated weekly in the Friday File.
Travis, I, for one, am indeed looking forward to far less absurd drama out of washington once Twittler is gone … enough already! The nice up-tic in the markets, too, suggests to me a collective sigh of relief for the prospect of continued divided gov’t.
Thanks again for another excellent Friday File review. I always appreciate your musings.
Thanks Travis, great write up. I’ve kept up with your stock sleuthing this week but ive got to admit (not being from the US) ive enjoyed the presedential race, its like a netflix drama -season 1 the election , season 2 maybe the courtroom battle? I do wonder though with all the visionaries the US produces why its likely to be a 77 year old career politician who gets the job. After all most people would admit to not being as sharp at 70 as they were at 40.
Any way back to stocks I’m wondering after the mass round of reporting whether any companies you don’t own ( or are on your watchlist) have surprised you and have changed your thinking about potentially buying into them. I remember a while ago that you had a piece of paper next to your computer (in anticipation of a downturn) with some entry points for stocks like paypal, square and WRB. Square in particular seems to have had a great quarter and there are also others like Pinterest that seem to have had great numbers (a facebook alternative maybe?)
I find it incredibly difficult to sort through why two stocks have such varying price moves when on the face of it they both had good quarters, paypal and square being a good example . I would love to know your thoughts.
Travis, I am in the same boat as Shaun had list of stocks on my paper like SQ, NIO, WKHS and so many other for dips , and did’t buy any thing yet. Your feedback helps and makes me comfortable.
Travis, great report!
Another point about $IIPR you dont really touch on; one of the biggest services they are doing for their tenants is the fact that these marijuana companies cant purchase land. this will go away with total legalization, thus setting back this stock.
They do best with more legal states and a federal ban.
I’m not a lawyer, but I don’t know that that’s actually true — IIPR wouldn’t be able to do sale/leaseback deals with existent facilities if those facilities weren’t already owned by the company selling it to IIPR… but certainly it is sometimes challenging for marijuana companies to purchase land.
And yes, I agree with you that the continuing state-by-state progress is the best possible path for IIPR.
I sm danish, so could someone please explain. 2 vote for senators is postpone to 5. January. So do you think that the Democrats can still take the senate? If yes won’t stock fall dramatically after this election gain?
What about all the recount ect, no stimulus packages near term, is that not downside for stocks?
Assuming that the two independents in the Senate choose to caucus with the Democrats, they could get back to a 50/50 split in Congress if they win both seats in Georgia in January, which will probably be by far the most hotly contested and expensive runoff election in history. A sharply divided Senate, even with a Democratic tie-breaker, would not be an activist one — the President-elect has a long and clear record of being a moderate Democrat with bipartisan tendencies, the Senate is far more moderate than the House (and usually more sober, by design), and the House is more moderate than it was a week ago.
There will be recounts in two or three states, most likely, those are business as usual in close elections. Recounts have never before shifted vote totals by a really meaningful amount — it’s always possible that this time is different, and it’s certainly very emotional, but the chance of anything really shifting is minimal. Legal complaints after an election are fairly common as well, and also rarely change meaningful election margins, though they’re certainly louder this time — that’s more a matter of personality than of substance, so far. That doesn’t mean there can’t be any election-altering issues found, just that there haven’t been any found yet. In recent years, republicans have cried about voter fraud and democrats have cried about voter suppression, neither has shifted election results.
We don’t know what the next tumultuous few months will do to the stock market, either way. Generally, I’d say the stock market values stable and predictable — and that’s not what we’re going to see between now and January, so it might be a rocky ride… but as of this morning the stock market is clearly expecting a return to normalcy after this period, not a constitutional crisis.
hi, the state of Georgia has a runoff for January 5 due to the senate race being so close, currently the democrats have 48 seats and republicans control 50, if democrats win those 2 seats in the runoff it will be a 50/50 split and anything coming up for vote the Vice President Kamala Harris will be a tie breaker since she was a senator thus giving control of the senate to the Democratic Party. I’m not an expert at stocks or politics but historically if you are patient I don’t think it matters much what political party occupies the wh there are stocks that will withstand the test of time and historically they have returned about the return. I hope this helps
oh I see travis already replied and did a much better job explaining it, thanks
I am pulling everything tomorrow. You can lie to yourselves but you can’t lie to me. This election was stolen. The polls were all psyops. Congratulations everyone the military industrial complex and the oligarchs are back in power (maybe). The Fraud was so large it should be easy to over turn. PA was a complete joke. For those of you who want Trump to just concede I am here to tell you he cannot. There will never be another election again where anyone trusts it. We knew the left would cheat lol; be honest with yourself you know they always do. Do you really think Joe Biden got more votes than BO in 2008? Look what they did in their own primaries this year in Iowa.
So here’s my advice, get out now why you still have anything left. Soon things we took for granted will be sorely missed. There will be mass civil unrest. DT got 71 million legit votes it was a indeed a landslide; A true red wave. I suspect out of those 71 million many are the ones who work, they make the trains run on time. Electricity, clean water, supplies, etc do you think they are going to keep this up? I would suggest you hedge in precious metals such as brass and lead. This is not going to end well but natural order must be restored.
We’re not going to have a political discussion site here, but I’ll let this one through so you can express your opinion and I can share my response… then, as best we can, we’ll drop it in these parts.
The US vote this time around was remarkable for the extraordinary turnout despite the challenges of voting during a pandemic, for which we have Donald Trump to thank — if he were not so beloved by a subset of the country and loathed by another, the energy to turn out votes would probably not have been nearly so high. 131 million people voted in the 2008 presidential election, and this year that number will end up being very close to 150 million… of course both candidates got a lot more votes than their counterparts 12 years ago.
Those people felt strongly that this election mattered, and most of us live in echo chambers of our own design right now so it’s very likely that most of us have a really hard time seeing a perspective different from our own. If you think the world is going to go to hell in a handbasket because Donald Trump lost to Joe Biden, or that people who voted for Donald Trump are going to try to sabotage the country because their candidate lost, then I believe and hope that you’re wrong. The reaction has been anguished as President Trump and his fans go through their own version of a mourning process, like Hillary Clinton’s fans did four years ago, but it has also been remarkably peaceful and civil, and I hope and expect that will continue. It feels raw and immediate right now, and those feelings will be stoked by all kinds of headlines and tweets over the next couple months as we lead up to the Georgia Senate runoff votes, but our nation has been through much worse. I’d urge folks to give it some time for the level of emotion to drop, and for the legal fights and the recounts to be resolved, and then it will be easier to think clearly.
But if you want to vote with your money right away, then today is a very nice up day on which you can sell. The stock market has spent a few days celebrating vaccine progress and a more stable and/or divided US government, so the prices at which you could sell today are certainly far higher than they were a week or two ago.
I know it’s hard to accept defeat, it was almost a mirror image of this four years ago and the other side had an almost equally hard time accepting defeat. To the extent possible, I always urge you to feel your feelings, but don’t invest through them. It doesn’t end well.
Well said.
Hi Luke, I’m just reading this, and as it’s been a couple of months since your post, I’m just wondering: did you go through with your promise to sell everything? If so, how you are feeling about your decision now?
Tiptree seems to me like a potentially outstanding investment at $5.20. My only issue is that they seem to give out a really large amount of shares to management each year, in the form of options and RSUs. So even though they are buying back a lot of shares, and some of those shares bought back are decreasing the share count, most of the shares bought back are just being given out to management. I know stock compensation is a very common thing, but in this case it just seems a bit excessive to me, which is too bad because otherwise I could see myself taking a sizable position in this one.
Good point. They are hedge fund guys originally, which probably exacerbates that tendency.