by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | January 22, 2021 4:58 pm
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2021/01/friday-file-dreaming-of-nvr/
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I have been fortunate enough to own shares of NVR for several years. Any thoughts on NVR? Continue to hold? Time to take the money and run?
I don’t have anything negative to say about NVR, surely has been a great company and it’s rarely a good idea to sell a great company — I just like the idea of a smaller company trying to expand on their model.
Gotcha, thanks!
Travis, I’m quite SPAC’d-out and Saas’d-out so something in the real estate sector is a welcome breather! So welcome that I decided to microdose on DFH after reading last night’s Trade Note and hit the ground running at today’s opening bell. Nice timing; thank you!
That was just luck, but thanks.
New to Gumshoe. Was listening to the Fool live back in Dec and one of the analyst pick Gan as 100 bagger and Kahoot [ KHOTF] what do you think Travis ?
Have never looked at Kahoot, what do you like about it?
Would also love to hear your thoughts on Kahoot, Travis. One of my Top 5 positions. Seems ridiculously expensive but has massive growth potential. Game-based learning. Considering US listing. High profile backers include Microsoft, Disney and SoftBank.
the gaming stock we discussed here recently such as KHOTF, SE, GRVY have done pretty well, 3x to 4x bagger within a year, I guess we can not expect such growth rates to continue, if the lockdowns / cover19 are over, does it still makes sense to invest in them longterm, what do you think? I own SE, but the other two are looking quite well too.
I don’t think gaming will dip that much when the pandemic is over, that trend of growth has been in place for a long time.
As to the stocks… well, all I can really tell you is that I’m not buying any of those at these prices, though I like SE very much and am certainly to selling. I’d tend to invest in the slower growth names like ATVI or EA if forced to choose today.
Hi gun341, I discovered GAN with Stansberry but get never in as I didn’t find the right entry price, which was adjusted higher and higher from time to time. I still belief in the narrative of online sport betting, but wondering if its too late to get in now or buy at a dip. I just checked out the stock at Simply Wall, GAN is debt free, what is a good thing, and is 60% overvalued with a fair price at 37 usd, so there is still room to growth, but what makes it a 100 bagger? Do you have more information on that, is the growth story so impressive, is there a hughe total addressable market for online betting? Curious to hear more details. Thanks dahadu
Thanks again Travis for another great Post.
Very inspirational as always.
I must admit ALTIUS has been that kind of psychological test for me.
I have been stubborn to resist temptations, so hold or buy some dips at times, luckily.
What are your thoughts on this one going forward and looking at current valuations?
The market is at great momentum for this, many analyst raising target above 15, but.. I miss the big picture and some reasoning behind, so, I cannot take the why.
Altius has been rising primarily because of growing interest in base metals, fueled by returning Chinese demand for iron ore and copper… plus a boost of awareness that potash prices have recovered a bit and will likely go higher. With falling prices, that interest could wane quickly.
Big picture is a self-sustaining and diversified portfolio of long-lived royalties, giving relatively stable exposure to a handful of commodities and occasional windfalls from their prospect development work. The renewable energy royalties could bring in new investors, which would help, but aren’t likely to be a big part of the pie in the near future.
Slightly off topic, but those looking into a real estate/housing play, Zillow has been an excellent pick for me recently. I haven’t seen it covered here as yet, but perhaps Travis may take a look at it.
I like redfin better than zillow.
I also think paying 6% to sell your house is outrageous, so I hope redfin suceeds in bringing that cost down.
I am also a happy Zillowhoder!
Travis thanks great write up on Dream finders , I also took a small position as I have been thinking of adding a home builder stock in this low interest rate environment , I may also add LGI homes as they seem to focus on entry level construction . Wow Yellowstone seemed like a perfect fit is there a time period required for them to find a target company , I am very interested in investing as well just not sure if i have the patience , your guidance is always appreciated
Thanks
Hi Travis,
When you announce your purchasing small stakes in new stocks, since one doesn’t the value of your portfolio, it would be helpful to fully understand your risk appetite. You could do this by consistently telling us each time what percentage of your entire portfolio this new “dabble” investment constitutes.
Thanks,
James Roberts
That data is in the real money portfolio spreadsheet, but I don’t always mention it in the text when I write — thanks for the reminder. It is a little different for different stocks — I may open with a larger position with more stable large companies, like AMT, at 0.5 or 1 percent or occasionally more, but more typically at 0.1-0.5 percent, especially for a much smaller or more volatile company.
I feel so good!!!! With Doing a little math, I realize I buy using the same ( roughly) %’s as you, Travis. Kudos, partner.
Hi Travis,
excelllent Friday file again. Especially like your link to the Interview with the CEO of PAR. That was an excellent interview and enjoyed reading it tremendously. After reading it, I decided to add a bit to my position. I love it as a longer term play and the main thing is not put all your money on one stock. Position size is the key for me.
Also like your DFH write up. Will watch it for a possible entry. Not sure what that should be, but if one looks long term, it does not really matter that much.
Thank you for your very much appreciated service to us all.
Parked 1K as you call it in YSACU @ $10.14. An y ideas on what their intentions are?
Nothing beyond what they said in the IPO — I would expect a smallish company in real estate, telecom, financial services or something similarly cash-flowing and unsexy (so, not a hot tech idea), but haven’t heard any hints or rumors about specifics.
Just want to share this news about KEYS, the company is mainly perceived as a pure hardware play, but 20% of the offerings are software. If Keys will follow Adobes or Autodesk foodsteps, it could reach nearly 50% of its revenues from hardware within the next five years. If this works out quite well and the company moves into the SAAS business model, the share price could be double, according to a recent study by Altimetry. So, I am still long on Keys.
Me, too. Really well managed and huge growth potential still, though no longer cheap after it surged 50% or so in the last few months.
Me too
KEYS also does some hardware as a service, HaaS(not sure how long they have been doing it). The company I works for and many others require annual calibration. They have subscription plans that cover calibration and repair. We have an emi chamber with lots of expensive equipment, so it’s easier to pay the subscription than the surprise 10k to repair an RF amplifier.
I am also currently evaluating some of keysights software for power electronics and electromagnetic analysis. My company currently uses most of the Ansys tools, but they are very expensive, so we are hoping to find a more reasonably priced alternative. Ansys is around 120k per seat with HPC packs, while keysights is ~30k.
Most of keysights tools are home built, but ansys seems to aquire tools and spend their time trying to integrate them into a cohesive environment. Ansys also charges for everything, like using multiple cores on your desktop, that will be an extra 20k.
Ansys does have more functionality.
Anyways, just some of my real life experience.
Always in favor of real life experience!
Travis my daughters happen to be school teachers and when I asked them about Kahoot, they said that they use it several times a week online and in the classroom. Teachers and professors use it as a fun way to give quizzes and tests to students. My daughter said when the Kahoot music comes on, the kids go crazy for it and they love it. Ask any teacher or kids you may know, they will most likely know about it. There is a new generation that is using Kahoot. It is also now being moved into the workplace for presentations and trainings.was listed on the Oslo stock Exchange’s Euronext Growth on Oct 10, 2019 . I don’t know too much about the fundamentals of the company, which is why I was hoping that you could look into it and give your opinion. https://kahoot.com.
Travis,
Curious to hear if you’re looking at any potential options opportunities? Examined your RMP and noticed a good amount of your options expired or you sold this past month.
Thanks as always. Also very excited to see DF grow over the course of this year with the current real estate environment heavily favoring RE developers.
Yes, I’m always looking for new little speculations — most of them expire worthless (and I often buy LEAPs, so there are always a lot of expirations in January), but the occasional 1,000%-10,000% gains make it fun, and a good outlet for some animal spirits that I don’t want to let run free in the bulk of my equity portfolio.
The real money portfolio has an odd annualized return for Wesco of -43.31% ?? Seems that should be pretty flat…. I’m not sure if this is impacting any other numbers (so figured I would mention it). Thank you as always for all your efforts!
That’s because it’s only been in the portfolio a few weeks and is down a little — annualizing averages out long-term holdings nicely, but exaggerates short-term holdings (both good and bad)
Games going on GME – and the short / Reddit battle. Any thoughts on this battle/’war zone. The reason I ask as it looks like FSLY may have picked up some of the short/reddit game (up over 10% today). ….and what goes up most come down…..as a concept. So, just looking for thoughts on the topic and FSLY. Thanks again ….!!!!!
I’m sure I’ll have some additional comments to share by Friday, but for now I’m just watching the NASCAR race and wondering when we’ll see a giant crash — hopefully we won’t see stray wheels come flying up into the stands. I did pull together a list of the 50 or so stocks (!) with short interest above 33% (and market cap above $500 million), that’s here if you’re curious. A few stocks I own or have written about on that list, for sure — I don’t know if there will be another GameStop, that story was fairly unique and it has taken on a life of its own now, but I know lots of people are out there looking for that “next GameStop.”