Just buy a set amount of each teaser that is revealed?
by brottman | January 28, 2021 2:09 am
Hey everyone, I’m a brand new irregular. I was looking over the past spreadsheets of the teasers for each year and noticed something. It appears to me that had one invested a set, equal amount into each of the teasers as they came out, that the outcome for year would be quite profitable. For instance:
2020: 105%
2019: 70%
2018: 83%
2017: 90%
2016: 260%
2015: 55%
Am I missing something big? Perhaps an even better method?
Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2021/01/microblog-just-buy-a-set-amount-of-each-teaser-that-is-revealed/
What you’re missing is that this is the first year in a long time when the teaser picks outperformed the broader market, on average. Those picks for 2016 and 2017 look great now, for example, with the market surging to new highs and near-record valuations in the past six months, but they looked less impressive within their first 6-12 months.
In other words, that strategy would have worked great if you held the teaser stocks of the past few years until today, mostly because “story stocks” have been ascendant since COVID hit… but in my recollection this is the first time in a dozen years that it would have been a much better strategy than “just buy the S&P 500”. Maybe it will keep working, I don’t know, but I would hesitate to extrapolate this wild year into the future.