Annual Review — The Whole Magilla (OK, Megillah)

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, March 19, 2021


I’ve been doing my once-a-year assessment of every stock in the Real Money Portfolio over the past few weeks, and this documents pulls all of the quick summaries of those together into one file, to make it easier to keep track of them. What follows is in alphabetical order…. I think I got to them all (except the SPACs SLAC and YSAC, which are just “park some cash near $10 and wait to see what happens” low-risk speculations, with no real news yet). Enjoy! This list in Spreadsheet form is at the bottom, to make it a little easier to track prices. These are, as always, my opinions as of today — I can’t tell you what to do with your money, but I hope my analysis and opinions will be helpful.

3M (MMM) — Easy buy in the $160s, still worth buying below $180 for the patient, given the 3.5% dividend and extremely long history of dividend growth. PFAS litigation remains a risk, but to a large degree it should be priced in — that’s probably the main reason the stock is not above $200 now.

Activision Blizzard (ATVI)
Hold at $100, begin to nibble on dips to $90 or below. Activision Blizzard and Electronic Arts (EA) both had great years in 2020, and there’s an expectation that the growth tails off a little bit this year as people get off their couch and back to life… but that seems unlikely (the “less gaming” part, not the “back to life” part), gaming has been a strong growth industry for decades, and eSports should re-emerge as a major in-person spectator sport post-pandemic to provide a little boost. Electronic Arts is buying up studios, including both Gluu Mobile and Codemasters, and I think that has a solid chance of providing them with more of an earnings boost in the next year or two, so at roughly similar valuations EA gets a small edge of ATVI. That’s the opposite of my position for most of 2020, though ATVI has outperformed EA by about 20 percentage points over the past six months. Neither is shockingly cheap or likely to be explosive, both are “growth at a reasonable price” leaders.

Africa Oil (AOI.TO, AOIFF) Is a hold for me, though it’s very undervalued at C$1.17, given expectations of ~30 cents in earnings in 2021 and 40 cents in ...

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